The numbers part of this is good. The "fundamentals" analysis of this is a little misleading. There are fundamentals that absolutely work against her as well. You could tell the "aliens":
- She was part of one of the historically least popular administrations ever
- She's the most left-leaning candidate that has ever run for president
- Record border crossings
- Prices still higher than when she took office (still time for that to change more in her favor)
- One of the lowest favorability vice presidents ever
- Has never been a strong performer in campaigns elections
- The first candidate in generations to run for president after not winning a primary
- Americans do not feel like the country is going in the right direction, and she's the incumbent
- She's simply not a gifted politician, orator, manager or strategist. There is not the most dyed in the wool progressive enthusiast that would try to tell you with a straight face that she's excellent at anything. There's literally nothing to point to Harris, and say "Well, she's got THAT." She has incredibly little to recommend her, even those members of her own party and those who have worked with her.
The only comparably utterly unremarkable candidate that you could claim still won (twice!) was George W, so I could see taking some hope in that. However, George W had a much more aggressive policy agenda (that broke with his party to some extent) and I would argue was WAY more personally emphathetic and warm.
I would consider her a no-hoper completely if Trump wasn't also such a poor candidate, but he still carries some reputation of excellence as a businessman (largely bullshit) and some residual charisma (diminishing fast).
But in a vacuum it's hard to imagine a more unremarkable person to ever run for president. And so that's never going to be an easy layup.