I don't know which is harder to believe...Iowa scoring 51 or giving up 45?! Not that I'm ready for the season or anything...but I caught myself yelling "Go down!!!" to Jackson on the last INT
W/L Predictions?
- Thread starter ButtersHawk
- Start date
Absolutely it is. This game is a toss up.
Curiously enough... the last 3 ISU wins were all in Iowa City. Not this year. Squash the bugs.
Not necessarily true.
I've been seeing Iowa-2.5 all summer.
Most commonly, if Vegas views the two teams as equal, the home team will be favored by 3. This is why you've made the interpretation that you have.
But with lower scoring teams, the computer's interpretation of two equal teams can be home-2.5. ISU can put up points in the Big12, but often their games against Iowa are lower scoring, where both teams are commonly kicking FGs.
In games with two high scoring equal teams you can see home-3.5.
Expected betting action gets baked into the lines too, although not with a summer line, as there hasn't been any betting data from the season yet accumulated.
At this point Iowa-2.5 is a computer line. This is the case with summer lines, as Vegas doesn't yet have their intel on the streets of college towns, and the look-ahead games aren't drawing heavy action. There's a good chance once the season starts this game will move to at least Iowa-3. At this point the computer isn't able to quantify how much of a difference Iowa's new OC will make. Therefore, it moreso has to trust its recent data that Iowa has been a low scoring team
Hope you're wrong. Too effing long of a trip to watch Hawks lose.
2014 and 2022 Hawks home losses were to ISU teams that finished dead last in Big 12. Unreal to lose those games
The inexplicable losses to inferior ISU teams are perhaps KFz's biggest negatives.
While there is reason to hope on offense, it's still just that. To expect the D to turn in another performance during the regular season like they did last year is unrealistic.
D will almost surely be really good. Offense will likely be better. Just don't think it will come together enough to get them to double digit regular season wins.
D will almost surely be really good. Offense will likely be better. Just don't think it will come together enough to get them to double digit regular season wins.
We got to double digit wins last season with the worst offense in fbs. 10 wins should be the floor this season.
ISU is an inner state rival, lots of close games but the Hawks have dominated them for the last decade.
I put 8-4
I don’t trust Kirk. He’s not a good game day coach. Phil bails him out as well as some of the flukiest / luckiest games you’ll ever see happen under Kirk
I’m not sure how else you explain the stats of every other team that produces the same stat line for offense yards is like a combined 8-3,503….and 7 of those wins are Iowa haha
The defense should be salty again, but we’ve got a lot of unknowns. We lost the best punter, and our best player in Coop….theres going to be some drop off
And on offense….we have no idea what to expect other than the hope it cannot possibly be worse.
If the offense struggles, especially with turnovers….expect Kirk to revert to shrinking the playbook back down to 3 plays
I don’t trust Kirk. He’s not a good game day coach. Phil bails him out as well as some of the flukiest / luckiest games you’ll ever see happen under Kirk
I’m not sure how else you explain the stats of every other team that produces the same stat line for offense yards is like a combined 8-3,503….and 7 of those wins are Iowa haha
The defense should be salty again, but we’ve got a lot of unknowns. We lost the best punter, and our best player in Coop….theres going to be some drop off
And on offense….we have no idea what to expect other than the hope it cannot possibly be worse.
If the offense struggles, especially with turnovers….expect Kirk to revert to shrinking the playbook back down to 3 plays
Good analysis, altho I don’t think Washington, with all their player and coaching changes, can hang with Iowa in Kinnick.
I see Iowa as a 10+ point victor at home vs the Suckclones.
Lachey for sure. I have a feeling both Graves and Nwankpa have big years.
Lachey, Castro, Higgins, Graves, Black, Nwankpa, granted most potential stars are on the defensive side where we expect to be very good again.
Hopefully our QB delivers now that he’s healthy. Probably not a superstar but I will be pretty happy about average.
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As I predicted, Iowa has now moved to a 3 point favorite vs ISU.
Would not be surprised if it ticks up again
Most of you love the guy, I know, but Rob Howe's prediction is this ..................
VERDICT: 10-2
LOSSES: Minnesota, Ohio State
VERDICT: 10-2
LOSSES: Minnesota, Ohio State
I notice you haven't made a prediction. Scared to go on record?
If there has been no improvement in the offense, I would guess 7-5, 8-4. But I am optimistic there WILL be improvement. When (not if, but I hope I'm wrong) McNamara goes down with an injury it appears we will have a capable backup in Sullivan. So I'll say 9-3.
I've already posted on this board that I have a large wager on over 7.5 wins.
Beyond that I hope Iowa can win as many as possible.
Putting money down is going on record enough for me
Well, I have money on the over, too.
But you won’t go on record of making a prediction so you can come back later and make fun of everyone who predicted less wins than they actually get. I know your type.
Be a man and go on record with what you think the record will be.
What does any of what you said have to do with whether I make a prediction or not? I'm going to call out idiot and disrespectful fans regardless.
A prediction on this board means very little to me compared to the money I've wagered. That's what a real man does, is put his money where his mouth is.
I hope Iowa wins all of their games. I really don't like to put any number of losses into the atmosphere because I'm trying to will an undefeated season with all my might. But since you insist, I'll go with 10-2 or 11-1 and instantly trick myself that I didn't say that
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Didn’t you slam my post for saying 8-4 ? If you’ve got a large bet on over 7.5….8 wins makes you very happy
Reading up on the open practice threads, we still have a major issue at QB and WR.
Every single year we hear “defense is ahead of the offense” as the excuse for zero competency from the offense at these open practices.
And every year what we see at kids day is what we see in the regular season.
I’m trying to think of the last time we had a player really stand out….Derrick Willies ?? And he barely played
Proof will be in the pudding. Lester says the right things. Kirk always says the same things.
But if Iowa can’t find something on offense, then it’s another year of watching the defense and hoping for pick 6 or fumble returns for scores
Sure 8 would win my bet. But as a fan, I would be pretty disappointed with 8-4 this season.
My contention was with most of the content of your post.
You don't trust Kirk? Lol. What's it going to take another 25 years to earn it.
Iowa's staff has been known for great halftime adjustments since KF has been there.
There was nothing lucky or flukey about the wins. I won quite a bit of money betting Iowa money lines (just to win the games). Gamblers look for reliability in predictability. Good defense and special teams are the most reliable and predictable things in football. The defense wasn't bailing anybody out. It was the planned path to victory all along and it's very predictable and repeatable.
The stat differential you quoted is very easy to explain. Those other teams didn't have excellent defenses and special teams.
I'm not worried about Dakin. Sure he may have some growing pains, as a true freshman. But he has an electric leg by all accounts.
Shrinking the playbook to three plays is quite an exaggeration. But that's what happens with a backup QB. Welcome to football.
As for your latest post, if Iowa can't find anything on offense, it will be probably be the 9 wins they have averaged the last two seasons with the worst offense in the country. And it's a certainty that fans will once again make far too big of a deal about it because their selfish entertainment needs aren't being met🤣 What's it matter if Iowa's defense returns INT's and fumbles for TD's? Those points count too
