Wadley's TD = 96.7% Chance of Winning

[Eternal Return]

I hope this will stop the debate about Wadley taking a knee based on the idea that stopping inside the five would have given the Hawkeyes a 97 percent chance of winning. The odds are almost identical. Leaving points off the board with a kicker in his fourth game who had had his last FG attempt blocked? Too much is being made of this.

Here's the link to the ESPN stat (scroll down a bit): http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400935360

 

[N8dogg99]

It was just the way it was. Zero chance any runner just goes down at the 5. He didn't even know if he was going to be tackled 2 seconds before that. You execute the play for the best outcome and he did. You had to like the chances.

 

[bigfridaynite]

Heck if Nelson doesn't bat down that ball and the receiver would of caught it at the 4 with 3 guys ready to tackle him the clock could of run out. I'm not saying either I would change it is just the way it goes

 

[hawkcub]

Heck if Nelson doesn't bat down that ball and the receiver would of caught it at the 4 with 3 guys ready to tackle him the clock could of run out. I'm not saying either I would change it is just the way it goes

PSU would of called a time out.

 

[Razorhawk2]

PSU would of called a time out.

Penn State did have 2 timeouts left. It's easy to second guess if it would have been better had he not scored a Touchdown. Less time on the clock but less yards needed to beat Iowa with a field goal. Penn State was basically moving the ball at will. If at the time I had my choice of TD or FG I would have picked a TD. It sucks how the game ended but it was a great game...a classic!

 

[Ngnosis hwk scence]

Well thanks for providing THE definite post and doing your best.

You have got to do a lot better than referencing ESPN and there often horrific metrics.

That's the ticket ($95 btw)

Hmmm... . Let's put the defense back on the field after they have already played around 90 frickin' plays.

Yeah one minute and 43 seconds and 2 time outs for PSU.

That ticket got punched and failed.

Look... we are all just arm chair QB's, 2nd, 3rd and 4th guessers, another word is fanatic.

Believe me I am a huge Captain Kirk fan. No, he is not over paid and is a good guy. I love what he has done the last year or so..re-tooling his staff and moving forward. I just hope he stays a few more years and the transition to the next coach will work out.

The next debate is what beat writer, TV talking head, radio guy or internet geek with a web site and press credentials asks Coach Ferentz:

(has some balls) What is your take on this 97% debate?

 

[Capital1Hawk]

There should be no issue with Wadley scoring, would gladly take that TD. They answered so live with it. I am not upset at all and had that feeling they would score. Just excited for the future and this team. Have a great D and an O that is developing so we should get better each week. Onward and upward!

 

[RocknRollface]

Suggesting a player purposely go down in that situation is the single stupidest idea ever put forth.

Seriously, find something else to do.

 

[bigfridaynite]

PSU would of called a time out.

It would of been close but all they needed was 1 sec

 

[HawkLogic]

PSU would of called a time out.

And then would have run Barkley on 4th down and Iowa hadn't stopped him all game. I think the game was lost near midfield. The DL quit getting after it and pressuring McSorely in pocket on several plays. Either they were trying to play contain or they were gassed. I saw Eppy not going after QB--I think he must have been told to stay back and play contain.

 

[Rudolph]

Wadley should've done this:

 

[ConvenientParking]

You take the points. We won a game in a very similar fashion against MSU in 2009. 7 for 6. It sucks.

 

[ConvenientParking]

And then would have run Barkley on 4th down and Iowa hadn't stopped him all game. I think the game was lost near midfield. The DL quit getting after it and pressuring McSorely in pocket on several plays. Either they were trying to play contain or they were gassed. I saw Eppy not going after QB--I think he must have been told to stay back and play contain.

Dude the DL didn't quit getting after it. They were completely gassed. Even with the rotation. The whole D was gassed. PSU ran 99 plays last night. We couldn't move the chains on O and eat clock.

 

[Eternal Return]

PSU would of called a time out.

It's possible. But there were only four seconds left when the ball hit the ground. If he had caught it and took a few steps or broke a tackle or it took a bit to get him down, the clock might have run out. We'll never know.

 

[DaCDiggity]

Heck if Nelson doesn't bat down that ball and the receiver would of caught it at the 4 with 3 guys ready to tackle him the clock could of run out. I'm not saying either I would change it is just the way it goes

It very well could of turned into a lj Scott 2015 BCG for all we know

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

Nothing was guaranteed for the Iowa offense, you take the TD.

 

[Wadzinator]

Let's get up to Spartan land and get a win warm up Dantonio's seat a little more Go Hawks

 

[0418hawkguy1001]

You always take the touchdown in that situation. Defense played a helluva ball game and they got beat by a very good offense and a perfect pass. That's the way the game goes. It is what it is but we took the best team in the Big 10 to the last play after allowing 600 yards of total offense. That should say something about this team that they never quit.

 

[hexumhawk]

1) I dont blame Wadley for taking the TD. Almost impossible to think of that during the play and to fight your instincts. Also, kicking game proved not to be a sure thing.
2) Watched the replay of the screen play that was knocked down. %90 sure he scores on that if we dont knock it down. IF we tackle him, doesnt I think they are still going to get that timeout before the clock would run out but you never know.

Tough loss but Hawks played great; just needed to make one more play. Got to give credit to Penn St...they made the plays when they needed them.

 

[His Hawkness]

1) I dont blame Wadley for taking the TD. Almost impossible to think of that during the play and to fight your instincts. Also, kicking game proved not to be a sure thing.
2) Watched the replay of the screen play that was knocked down. %90 sure he scores on that if we dont knock it down. IF we tackle him, doesnt I think they are still going to get that timeout before the clock would run out but you never know.

Tough loss but Hawks played great; just needed to make one more play. Got to give credit to Penn St...they made the plays when they needed them.

I agree on the screen. Herbie was wrong. I think the guy might score untouched if the ball wasn't batted down.

 

[HIWB]

I hope this will stop the debate about Wadley taking a knee based on the idea that stopping inside the five would have given the Hawkeyes a 97 percent chance of winning. The odds are almost identical. Leaving points off the board with a kicker in his fourth game who had had his last FG attempt blocked? Too much is being made of this.

Here's the link to the ESPN stat (scroll down a bit): http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400935360

97 is the % of college football kickers successfully converting PATs, which is essentially the distance that is inferred for the potential game winning field goal in this situation.
It IS NOT the odds for winning the game in that scenario. Those odds were never determined. You can't interchange random stats for various scenarios at will. Stats don't work that way.

 

[danny14]

The problem wasn't the TD, it was their drive. We just needed plays where they didn't pick up a 1st downs to stop the clock each time. They just made plays where they didn't waste any time or TO's. Just a great final drive, on their part.

 

[TampaHawkfan]

I was definitely hoping they didn't score too early at the time, but you've gotta take the TD when it's there.. If you don't score, you never know.. Fumbled snap on next play, penalties, sack, missed/blocked FG.. A lot of things could go wrong.

Just had to go up 4 and like your chances that you can stop them from scoring a TD. Unfortunately, the D didn't hold.. PSU was allowed to move down the field way too quickly..

 

[DavenportHawk8]

I was definitely hoping they didn't score too early at the time, but you've gotta take the TD when it's there.. If you don't score, you never know.. Fumbled snap on next play, penalties, sack, missed/blocked FG.. A lot of things could go wrong.

Just had to go up 4 and like your chances that you can stop them from scoring a TD. Unfortunately, the D didn't hold.. PSU was allowed to move down the field way too quickly..

Under 2 min in college football is an eternity. Don't need to waste your times-outs early in the game, those 2 minutes take forever regardless. I would always keep 1 just in case of a 10 second run-off. You never know when that will happen, and if you do not have a time-out, how'd you like to lose a game because you committed a false start or had a helmet come off and that made the clock stop? Oh boy that would be a disaster.

Wadley had to score there, no doubt about it. Iowa's defense had gotten the stops all day, just didn't the last play. Taylor got burnt and Hooker almost made the play.

Learn from it and move on.

 

[Crafty Beaver]

What were the Hawks' chances going into the final play, I'm curious?

Based on how tough we had played them to that point (in the red zone), I'm thinking 75-80%. I think our coaches really liked where we sat there, too. Short field, McCsorely getting lots of passes batted, etc...just don't let him scramble & beat you & make sure you account for Barkley. Crap, we had em right where we wanted them!!!

 

[BigOHawk]

Hmmm...hindsight is 20/20 but was wondering what if we just would've rushed 2-3 DL and dropped the rest into coverage, but that's why I'm not coaching and instead I just yell from my basement!

 

[BigOHawk]

I've watched that 3rd down play several times, I believe he would've been tackled but not sure, either way...no WAY PSU has time to call timeout, he would've received ball with 4-5 seconds and by the time he catches, turns, runs and is tackled before endzone that would've been game over. So close, darn. Still have no idea why Bower didn't jam #84 on 4th and Goal before chasing Gesiki, who ran a pattern short of goal line....grrrrr...

 

[H4wkfan4life]

Hmmm...hindsight is 20/20 but was wondering what if we just would've rushed 2-3 DL and dropped the rest into coverage, but that's why I'm not coaching and instead I just yell from my basement!

Is it that bad in NE that you have to watch hawk games in the basement?

 

[shank hawk]

Suggesting a player purposely go down in that situation is the single stupidest idea ever put forth.

Seriously, find something else to do.

Seriously, professional athletes do it. Tell them how stupid they are in that situation.
https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/s...w-takes-a-knee-apologizes-to-f?urn=nfl,202651

Not saying the Hawks would have won if he had done it, but a chip shot field goal may have been better odds than stopping that offense @ that point.

Doesn't matter now; great game and they can still play in Indy if things roll their way.

 

[BigOHawk]

Is it that bad in NE that you have to watch hawk games in the basement?

Nah... Actually a ton of Hawk fans here in Omaha, lots of tigerhawks and "Go Hawks" chants around the city and beyond. My boys and are were very ready to spill into the street Saturday night about 10 but it wasn't to be!

 

[Howie'81]

I agree on the screen. Herbie was wrong. I think the guy might score untouched if the ball wasn't batted down.

I was sitting on that end of the field in the visitor's seats. It sure looked like Hamilton had a beeline to the endzone if the ball wasn't tipped. He already had a head of steam going into the open seam towards the goal line.

 

[CoachingCorner]

The problem wasn't the TD, it was their drive. We just needed plays where they didn't pick up a 1st downs to stop the clock each time. They just made plays where they didn't waste any time or TO's. Just a great final drive, on their part.

Since they had to go for 10 yards and a first down on each play, we didn't have to worry about a run up the middle. So why not replace a D-Lineman with our best pass-rushing reserve lber on that drive- someone with fresh legs who would have a good chance to make a disruptive play? Jones, maybe.

 

[BigOHawk]

I was sitting on that end of the field in the visitor's seats. It sure looked like Hamilton had a beeline to the endzone if the ball wasn't tipped. He already had a head of steam going into the open seam towards the goal line.

Very hard to tell either way, depends on what the two PSU blockers did if the ball goes through untouched. I still maintain he would've been tackled short and the clock would've ran out prior to PSU calling TO.

 

[BigOHawk]

Since they had to go for 10 yards and a first down on each play, we didn't have to worry about a run up the middle. So why not replace a D-Lineman with our best pass-rushing reserve lber on that drive- someone with fresh legs who would have a good chance to make a disruptive play? Jones, maybe.

Good thought but throwing an inexperienced Jones out there is a huge risk at that point in the game, if he makes a big mistake at the time could have proved to be costly. I'm still stewing about the last 2 minutes...twice before Wadley scored the go ahead TD Iowa snapped the ball with 25 seconds on the play clock. On both snaps, another 5-10 seconds would've made a huge diff. Of course PSU may have dialed up longer passes too on last drive...grrrr..

 

[CoachingCorner]

Good thought but throwing an inexperienced Jones out there is a huge risk at that point in the game, if he makes a big mistake at the time could have proved to be costly. I'm still stewing about the last 2 minutes...twice before Wadley scored the go ahead TD Iowa snapped the ball with 25 seconds on the play clock. On both snaps, another 5-10 seconds would've made a huge diff. Of course PSU may have dialed up longer passes too on last drive...grrrr..

My point is that there was no big mistake to make. At that point the only options for a DT were to rush the passer, tip the ball, or lay down and take a nap. There was no run responsibility in that situation because PSU couldn't afford to take the risk of running.