Knowing what we know as of now, which is almost nothing as compared to most years. What would you consider the low end Big Ten victory total of our Hawkeyes in 2016/17.
Way, Way too early expectations for next year.
- Thread starter DanL53
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I am confused. The header says way to early expectations for next year. But your comment states only Big 10 victories and you can't have 11 or more victories in the B1G even if you win the title game. Help?
Thanks everybody for the clarification. I can be a moron.
Thanks everybody for the clarification. I can be a moron.
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Okay, some late night ramblings on next year.....usual qualifiers: I am not a bball expert, these are just my best guesses/observations.
We lose 4 important seniors and more than just experience, it changes the type of roster that we will have. So, I went with 7 B10 wins as I think we take a 1 year step back based on a lack of experience.
We lose 2 point guards and as has been discussed, this is the biggest area of concern for next year. Mike G. has become a pretty important scoring option for this team...Sapp, a defensive stopper and I don't think we replace either of those elements of their games with the new guys.
We lose JU's scoring and defensive presence....as well as Adam's interior defense. All big deals.
Based on what we have seen this year, this is my list beginning with the most likely starters (as of right now).
1) Pete
2) Dom
3) Baer
4) Tyler Cook
5) Whichever Point Guard shows the most in practice.
6-7-8-etc. Brady, Wagner, Jones (if recovered), Bohanan.....seems like a long steep climb for Flemming, Moss, Hutton.
Some more guesses: We will try to run and press even more than we do now due to the athletic roster we will have. The pre conference schedule needs to have a number of cupcakes in order to build this teams confidence and chemistry, even more important than the win total.
The team should really start to show improvement later in the year as the experience and rotation get solidified.
When I look at the line up for next year it just seems like EVERY player needs to take a major step forward for this team to get to those 7 conference wins.....point guard play will be huge.....I think it will be THE determining factor.
Do we have an overseas trip planned next summer?....it would seem to be the ideal time for one.
We lose 4 important seniors and more than just experience, it changes the type of roster that we will have. So, I went with 7 B10 wins as I think we take a 1 year step back based on a lack of experience.
We lose 2 point guards and as has been discussed, this is the biggest area of concern for next year. Mike G. has become a pretty important scoring option for this team...Sapp, a defensive stopper and I don't think we replace either of those elements of their games with the new guys.
We lose JU's scoring and defensive presence....as well as Adam's interior defense. All big deals.
Based on what we have seen this year, this is my list beginning with the most likely starters (as of right now).
1) Pete
2) Dom
3) Baer
4) Tyler Cook
5) Whichever Point Guard shows the most in practice.
6-7-8-etc. Brady, Wagner, Jones (if recovered), Bohanan.....seems like a long steep climb for Flemming, Moss, Hutton.
Some more guesses: We will try to run and press even more than we do now due to the athletic roster we will have. The pre conference schedule needs to have a number of cupcakes in order to build this teams confidence and chemistry, even more important than the win total.
The team should really start to show improvement later in the year as the experience and rotation get solidified.
When I look at the line up for next year it just seems like EVERY player needs to take a major step forward for this team to get to those 7 conference wins.....point guard play will be huge.....I think it will be THE determining factor.
Do we have an overseas trip planned next summer?....it would seem to be the ideal time for one.
I want to also add that I think the other incoming freshman big guys will end up being pretty good players....BUT, I think they need at least a year to get physically ready. Cordell due to his surgery/knees and Kreiner just needing to physically mature and adjust to the speed of the game. Cook looks to be physically ready.
Way way early as stated but I will play...9 wins minimum Williams at the point Moss at the 2, Pete at the wing, Baer or Jones at the 4 and Dom at the 5. Off the bench I believe. Bohannon backs up the point, Brady at the 2, Hutton at the wing, Cook at the 4 maybe, and Wagner at the 5. Leaves quite a few to battle for minutes but my guess is the Hawks press all game long so minutes will be available. As the season goes on the players play will sort out a 9- 10 or even 11 maybe rotation. I hope to see a very fast team next year, especially on the defensive side forcing the action.
We won't be as consistent nor as good next season, especially early on. However, our conference schedule should be a little easier so I am hopeful for 8 wins +/- 1 and sneaking into the Dance.
At this point, the Cook, Dom, Baer, Jok, PG? lineup seems most likely but it's a long, long time until then. Assuming both Hutton and Moss stay, they will be heard from. They're more athletic than any guys against whom they're directly competing. Jones was arguably ahead of Uhl/Baer before injury. If Fleming gains judgement, he'll play. BE will be a stable presence in the backcourt. Then there's Wagner, who I expect to remain in an energy-guy role. With all these options, there will be some creme that rises to the top. But the key is PG. If CW or JB can produce a 2/1 A/T ratio, we could have a progressive season. Cook being a rebounding/defensive force would help too. There is a trip planned. Can't remember the details but it will be needed for the team.
If we have a decent PG, average nothing more, nothing less, we will be good next year. 8 wins minimum without knowing the schedule...
I think next year will be the first year we take a step back under Fran. Of course, I thought last year the team wouldn't as good as it ended up being. I thought the same this year. So who knows.
For all the criticism MG and AW get on these boards, they will be sorely missed next year.
For all the criticism MG and AW get on these boards, they will be sorely missed next year.
This. We have some big question marks at point guard (and I am someone who thinks CW has lots of potential). I think next year will be a fun ride seeing who develops and who does not. One of the sophomores (or RS freshman) will be getting left behind. Just not enough playing time. I also hope people temper their expectations for Cook just a bit. He has lots of potential and is very athletic, but I do not expect him to be a big time scorer his freshman year. Hopefully he provides defense and rebounding though.
I think Dom, Jok, and Jones provide much of our scoring and perhaps Moss can be a scorer off the bench for us too. In all, I think we end up with somewhere around 18 wins and an NIT appearance.
Thanks for the votes and comments. This is teaching me something as when I read "a step back" I don't quite get the size of the step. I don't have a qualm at all with the possibility of even just a seven win season. It would likely put us NIT bound and interestingly enough the year we brought in Gesell, Woody, Clemmons and a couple other guys we ended up in the NIT.
That was also a year that while we finished 9-9 in the league the Selection Committee chose 8-10 Minnesota and Illinois over us.
So, looking at the numbers it appears we feel, as a group, that our guys might still be in the fight for an NCAA spot right up to the end, just like 2012/13.
Maybe 8th in the league? On the downside? That does look to me (as a group) like a realistic expectation.
I voted 9-9, figures I'd end up on the high side.
That was also a year that while we finished 9-9 in the league the Selection Committee chose 8-10 Minnesota and Illinois over us.
So, looking at the numbers it appears we feel, as a group, that our guys might still be in the fight for an NCAA spot right up to the end, just like 2012/13.
Maybe 8th in the league? On the downside? That does look to me (as a group) like a realistic expectation.
I voted 9-9, figures I'd end up on the high side.
Losing Uthoff is obviously enormous.
Losing MG was always going to be big, but is looking more critical as the season progresses with essentially no PT for the supposed heir apparent taking place.
The theme of the past few years has been that the leading scorer has an understudy waiting in the wings to step up: Marble > White > Uthoff. This will be the first time in 3 seasons that doesn't seem to be the case.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple steps back next season and sub .500 in B1G play.
Losing MG was always going to be big, but is looking more critical as the season progresses with essentially no PT for the supposed heir apparent taking place.
The theme of the past few years has been that the leading scorer has an understudy waiting in the wings to step up: Marble > White > Uthoff. This will be the first time in 3 seasons that doesn't seem to be the case.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple steps back next season and sub .500 in B1G play.
I would - "two steps back" I highly doubt.
Absent big injuries to multiple key players, I believe McCaffery now has the program to the point of a .500 program (give or take I win) at a minimum. Next year will be a challenge, I agree, but the talent is now there (no decommits) to complete annually.
I personally think we will be pleasantly surprised. Think about what was expected out of Baer compared to what he is providing. What are expectations for Christian Williams, Jordan Bohannon, Isaiah Moss and Brandon Hutton? Didn't Hutton come in touted as one of the best defenders in his class? Moss was our highest rated recruit and will have a year of practice to learn the system. What if either Williams or Bohannon can provide freshman year Gessel?
I think we will lack a true go-to scorer (Uthoff/Marble type), but shooting will continue to be a strength. If Wagner, Cook, Kreiner or Pemsl have post scoring, we could end up very balanced.
I think we will lack a true go-to scorer (Uthoff/Marble type), but shooting will continue to be a strength. If Wagner, Cook, Kreiner or Pemsl have post scoring, we could end up very balanced.
Jok is going to have to fill the role of the Marble, White, and now Uthoff of the last three years. He's got to be the go to guy who can take over the game, which we have seen stretches of before. If he can be that player, we get average to good point guard play, and we can adequately defend the post, I think there is plenty of talent and athleticism to have a good year. Whether that means NCAA tournament or NIT, I don't know.
If we do take the expected step back, just remember that it will be a very young team and similar to the Gesell and Woodbury class as freshmen.
Also, do you see Fleming passing Ellingson in the rotation?
If we do take the expected step back, just remember that it will be a very young team and similar to the Gesell and Woodbury class as freshmen.
Also, do you see Fleming passing Ellingson in the rotation?
I agree Perry. I really hope Cordell gets red-shirted next year and does minimal impact work in the off season. I think he has a bright future. I have seen him play a number of times living in Dubuque. The kid is young and a surgery like that will do him wonders two years removed if he has no set backs. He needs time to get the strength back in it. It would have behooved him to sit this year right after the procedure but being a H.S. Senior it is hard to ask him to do that. I trust the docs and Fran will make the right decision.
Is it Thursday yet? Miss me some Hawkeye Hoops already!
I'm predicting we have at least one transfer this offseason. Hard to see where moss Hutton and Fleming fit right now in terms of minutes next year. I hope all 3 stay and dale jones gets healthy. Also Baer needs a scholly. Williams needs some valuable minutes this year in bigten play to prepare him for next year imo. We have so many guys who can contribute which is something we aren't used to having
I agree 100% about being pleasantly surprised but next year is Jok's turn. He's on the road now if you look at his improvement from frosh to now.
All he needs to do is not go in to "neutral" for little stretches, which he still does, and he has all conference ability.
Uhl will be his Robin next season and it will be Dom's show in two years.
Another lineup to consider is :
Uhl, Jones, Baer, Jok, PG?
That would put our best shooters on the floor and really spread it. I do think Cook needs to make a rebounding impact but not necessarily as a starter after seeing Uhl do OK in the middle.
Do think a RS may be a good idea for CP.
Uhl, Jones, Baer, Jok, PG?
That would put our best shooters on the floor and really spread it. I do think Cook needs to make a rebounding impact but not necessarily as a starter after seeing Uhl do OK in the middle.
Do think a RS may be a good idea for CP.
To avoid the BIG cellar, we are going to need 3 or 4 players from this freshman class or the next freshman to become serviceable BIG 10 starters and bench players. And right now none of the freshman class is good enough to crack the Top 8.
Most concerning, is that Dom Uhl will be our most proven BIG ball-handler next season. Jok is a jump shooter, not a shot creator. Ellingson and Bear don't dribble. And Wagner has no game outside of 10 feet. It's hard to predict how we are going to get shots next year.
So not only is point guard a huge question mark, we are going to have very few secondary ball-handlers on the court to alleviate pressure on the point guard. That was a problem at times last year, when Jok was playing shooting guard. Once of the reasons our offense has been efficient this year, is that we normally have 3 to 4 guys on the court that can really handle the ball for their position (Gessell, Clemmons, Uthoff, Woodbury, and Uhl).
Most concerning, is that Dom Uhl will be our most proven BIG ball-handler next season. Jok is a jump shooter, not a shot creator. Ellingson and Bear don't dribble. And Wagner has no game outside of 10 feet. It's hard to predict how we are going to get shots next year.
So not only is point guard a huge question mark, we are going to have very few secondary ball-handlers on the court to alleviate pressure on the point guard. That was a problem at times last year, when Jok was playing shooting guard. Once of the reasons our offense has been efficient this year, is that we normally have 3 to 4 guys on the court that can really handle the ball for their position (Gessell, Clemmons, Uthoff, Woodbury, and Uhl).
Drew, freshman become sophomores and Fran has proven his players are developed well as their careers progress. We will be just fine.
I think some on here look at redshirting as too much of a negative. In this case, I don't believe Moss and Hutton are being redshirted because of talent...not at all. I think both needed time to adjust to college life/academics more than they needed time to work on their games. Fran knew he had the luxury of a senior led group this year, and would use a short bench anyway. I do think we will struggle a little bit and NCAA tourney could be tough, BUT there's a lot of talent waiting in the wings. I could see a lineup of:
Williams, Bohannon
Moss, Ellingson
Jok, Jones, Hutton
Uhl, Baer
Wagner/Cook
I don't think we'll see Jok move to the two...not a good enough ball handler.
I would like to continue seeing Uhl as the new stretch 4, and not at the 5.
I think the 5 can be defended well with the combo of Wagner/Cook...but probably won't get much offensively.
I like Baer coming off the bench.
I think the most likely to leave is Flemming, and Baer gets his scholly.
Pemsl redshirts (again because of luxury and time to heal, not because of talent level) Kreiner either redshirts of gets minimal playing time.
I'm not a bball expert at all, feel free to rip this apart haha....I'm sure someone will.
Williams, Bohannon
Moss, Ellingson
Jok, Jones, Hutton
Uhl, Baer
Wagner/Cook
I don't think we'll see Jok move to the two...not a good enough ball handler.
I would like to continue seeing Uhl as the new stretch 4, and not at the 5.
I think the 5 can be defended well with the combo of Wagner/Cook...but probably won't get much offensively.
I like Baer coming off the bench.
I think the most likely to leave is Flemming, and Baer gets his scholly.
Pemsl redshirts (again because of luxury and time to heal, not because of talent level) Kreiner either redshirts of gets minimal playing time.
I'm not a bball expert at all, feel free to rip this apart haha....I'm sure someone will.
Ball handling isn't an issue with Williams or Moss which is just one of the reasons why both I feel will be starters next year.
Agree this is way too early predictions. A lot of this season left. Look at the improvement of Baer and Uhl over this season. Will someone else emerge going forward this year? So far I really like next years team. The team will be able to shoot and when you can shoot 3's your never out of any game. PG play is obviously an issue but we could actually get some upgrades there in certain areas. Williams has the potential to be a much better defender and also give Fran more options with his defense. Zone, trapping and playing different matchups man to man. Having a 6'6" pg gives Fran options he simply doesn't have this year. Also Fran has a pretty good history with coaching PG's when it come to assist to turnovers ratio. Remember Bryce Cartwright? Not a great PG but he was a top 5 Big Ten pg in that stat. Hard to predict next year because there is too many guys that we just don't know about but I definitely see potential next year.
A lot of people here will claim you are a Debbie downer, or a closet Illini fan, because you actually see some potential issues next year and people are only supposed to see rainbows and lollypops. Having said this, your points are spot on. Jok is a shooter, he's not a creator and he will be asked to carry the offense next year, especially in the crunch time situations. Are we really expected to believe Williams will be a avg/above avg PG next season when he can't even crack the top 8-9 this year? While PG is the biggest question mark imo, there are a lot of question marks going into next season.
You can't substitute for experience. It's likely Iowa will be very inconsistent next year as that is what you get with a young team. My thinking is this team is going to be pretty meh early in the season but should be much better by the end of the season. You should see a lot of growth throughout the season with next year's team.
I would feel very confident betting almost any sum of money that Iowa will not finish last in the B10 next season.
Yes, that is believable.
Jok will be just Fine, he is just doing what Marble did after Gatens left, then what White did after Marble left, and then what Uthoff is doing now that White is gone. we cannot tell how good Williams can/will be because these 2 are getting the majority of the PG minutes.
but I look back at a former IA PG who did this as a FR.
2.9 ppg, 0.6 rbg, 1.4 apg in 8.0 mpg.
with the way you are doubting Williams I can imagine how you would have bashed this kid,
oh by the way that kids name was/is BJ Armstrong and as a SR his stats were these.
18.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 5.4 apg and 1.8 spg.
so stop judging ANY PLAYER off their FR year.
even as a FR Devyn Marble stays were these.
19.1 mpg, 5.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.3 apg and 0.7 spg.
this Fran coaching these kids NOT LICK nor is it SA.
It's possible but not likely. If a guy who wasn't even a primary PG in high school, and only plays mop up time as a freshman, it's hardly likely he'll step in immediately and be an avg/above avg PG. As far as I know Iowa isn't petitioning to join the MAC next season, I believe they plan on remaining in the B1G. However, who knows, maybe you have inside reports that CW is dazzling his teammates in practice as the reserve PG.
Marble, White, and Uthoff were all more than just shooters they were scorers. Marble could get to the bucket, White could get to the FT line, and Uthoff and do it all. Jok doesn't have very good handles and isn't particularly quick. He's a good shooter, but he's streaky. He's scores points by getting hot with his outside shot, he's not a creator. Much easier to defend Jok than it was the other players.
Why are you giving senior stats? Please show me ANYWHERE I've said Williams won't be a good PG by his jr/sr year. I said, it's unlikely he'll be an avg/above avg PG NEXT year. Because he's seen so little time at the position, and it's not like he was elite PG out of high school (he was primarily a 2G in hs). He's is going to need to play more minutes than either Marble or BJ played their Fr season, because the backup PG is going to be ??? (Bahannon), a freshman.
In all likelihood Iowa is going to take a huge step backward in PG play from this year to next year. This doesn't mean CW or Bohannon (or someone else) can't end up being good/very good PG, but they aren't playing in the MAC or MVC, it's the B1G. Very difficult for young players, especially not highly ranked ones, to step in and immediately hold their own with other PG's, especially ones who have a lot more experience.
Agree, at least not with any real confidence. Who the hell knows how much players will improve over the summer, and who knows what other teams have coming in (via signings or young players who didn't play much this season)? Predicting a record at this point would be little more than throwing a dart at the dartboard. It wouldn't be any more accurate.
Presently we have a 9 man rotation, 4 sr, 5 underclassmen. I think the 5in the rotation have a leg up on minutes. The only skill set lacking is the qb, arguably the most difficult and most important position. Someone will emerge as the winner of the pg position. Will need 2 from the roster to contribute....D.Jones+pg+ 1 other, minimum. I don't know who wins pg, but it will be one who plays smart, shoots ft, defends. And I'll say Cook sees the floor. Moss,Boho, or CW seem to be obvious choices to see minutes at the point
It's pretty much just guessing. Just for fun on my part, but the poll did help me get an idea what kind of record people are talking about when they say things like, "a step back". I was pleasantly surprised to see it isn't much worse than what I'm anticipating.
We have so little to go on. But I think a good year to look at is 2011-12. That was the year we brought in White.
We had Cartwright and Gatens and after that the upperclassmen were spot duty or bench players. This coming year we will have Jok and Uhl as upperclassmen. Now, I know there is Jones...I'm pretty much generalizing here.
The guy who really stepped up to be Gatens sidekick was Marble. Basabe had a bad sophomore year. There was McCain. The freshmen including a super surprising White, a top 150 ranked Oglesby who actually had a decent freshman year, and Basabe who wasn't ready to play but we couldn't really redshirt as finding a center was never really settled all season.
And, we finished 18-17, 8-10 in the Big Ten. I really do think we could do much better than that. And the reason is we've got more unknowns with a higher ceiling than we had that year. I'm banking on McCaffery's eye for talent to have turned up some gems among our five true freshmen from 2016 and four from 2017. That's nine guys, and with Fran's record I simply believe four, maybe five, will be ready to play important roles.
1st we must be watching 2 different teams,
2nd Jok is a scorer in every sense this season Jok is 2nd to Gesell in steals and 3rd in assists Gesell and Clemmons are 1st and 2nd, that shoots down your claim about Jok,
3rd NOBODY should ever judge a player off their FR year.
4th White as a JR avg'd 12.8 ppg and Uhoff as a JR avg'g 12.4, Jok avg'ing 13.1ppg,
hmm s pretty close production to me. you must live on a different planet or different PLANE like the Twilite ZONE
I'll try again, one more time, then I'll drop it. Williams is not going to"crack" the rotation this year with 2 senior point guards playing in front of him as right now this experienced team is in the heat if battle for a B1G championship run. He has skills with the basketball in his hands and will create matchup problems when he is in charge of running the team. Yes he has not been given that opportunity yet and until this team has clearly won the B1G title or is out of it, he won't be running the point or even cracking out significant minutes for a multitude of reasons, his skill set isn't one of those reasons. If you have watched him even in closing minutes against second teamers with 30 seconds in the game this should be quite clear. His job now is to learn, observe, practice and understand the game Fran wants played until he does it automatically in his sleep. His time will come... it is not this year, not with this team of seniors, especially now the way they are playing. I know Fran would like to get him minutes but he will stick with his experienced players completely until something drastically changes . I don't see it happening until very late in the B1G season if at all. I would love to see him out there too the sooner the better for his growth and for next year but other than a need(injury to MG or Sapp), it will have to wait.
I agree with this somewhat. However there are four players that should be B1G starter quality in 10 months in Jok, Jones, Uhl and Baer. They all play long and shoot over 40% from the 3pt line. That is not an empty cupboard my friends.
There should be another starter for certain , and a quality bench player or 3, in Moss, Wagner, Cook, Hutton, Fleming, Ellingson, Williams, Bohannon, Kreiner, and Pemsl. Six of whom will have some experience and/or a year of learning in the program. Heed my optimism, we really only need a couple of those 10 to play decent ball. And I guarantee you that more than a couple will play, and play well.
That combined with the fact that Fran exceeds expectations every year, and we will have a team. Upper half for sure. Top tier? Probably not. But if so, then Meet the new Bo or Izzo...?
So that dart will be thrown, but at a board that is missing a few of the lower numbers.
My two cents
