Iowa has some talent on the bench, not playing much or starting, there is some talent coming to the team in the next couple of years. This is a huge difference than what "has been"...Fran has upgraded and there are many more options to tinker with. I don't see a huge disappointment or let down next year. Many talented players, vying for playing time, often has a happy ending. Plus, Fran's talent is now more tailored to his preferred style of play...fast paced, pressing...need length, depth and athletes to do that. Iowa seems to have that, albeit, in younger packages next year.
Way, Way too early expectations for next year.
- Thread starter DanL53
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I absolutely love that line! It causes a question to pop up, "Where is the new zero?" With Lickliter zero was zero, one wondered if we'd win a Big Ten game at all.
After a one year rebound our worst record in the Big Ten in the last four years is 8-10. I notice that even with all the question marks coming up next year that over 90% of posters who responded to the poll believe 7 losses is the low end next year. That has to be perception of the program moving in a positive direction.
LOL. I can't help it if you are ignorant.
Jok is a shooter, he's not a creator.
What do steals and assists have to with him being or not being a scorer? Assists is not the most useful stat anyway since it's dependent upon the players around that person. It's the RBI stat of basketball which really doesn't tell you how good a player is. Steals? Brody Boyd did well in the steal category but he wasn't a good defender. Looking at advanced metrics Jok ranks behind Uthoff, AC, MG, and tied with Woody and Uhl (those three are slightly above Baer).
You are the only one judging a player off their FR year. Learn to read. I've stated several times that while a player (eg Williams) might struggle his FR year, he could still end up being a above avg/elite PG. He's just not that now, and I doubt he'll be that next year.
Oh, and nice logical fallacy. Because Uthoff and Jok posted similar numbers as a JR, one must assume (according to you) they'll post similar numbers to each other as a senior. Uh, sorry, that's not how it works. Besides, this still doesn't change the fact that Uthoff and Jok are totally different types of players. I'm pleased to be living in the "Twilight ZONE" if your ramblings pass as logical or reasoned comments on your planet or "PLANE".
Whoa, slow down there big fella. You know for a fact Jok, Jones, Uhl and Baer will shoot over 40% beyond the arc next season? You have a better crystal ball than I do then. They might but I wouldn't put money on it. Jok isn't hitting over 40% this year. Oh, and NOWHERE have I claimed Iowa has an empty cupboard. If I thought that was the case then I wouldn't be saying PG is the biggest question mark next season.
So, who runs the offense? Who's the go-to guy? Will it take time for these players to gel playing together for the first time? How will the defense play with so many new players? What about interior offense/defense/rebounding, losing Woody.
The highlighted is a common logical fallacy used here (and elsewhere). Just because Fran has exceeded expectations every year doesn't mean he will do so next year. Just because a batter gets 6 hits in the previous 6 at bats, doesn't mean he will get a hit in his 7th at bat. Past success doesn't predict the future outcome.
Upper half next year. Doubt it. Is it possible? Sure. Likely? No, imo. Yes, if Fran can bring a good season next season he'll be on his way to becoming the new Bo or Izzo. He still doesn't have the success they have so you couldn't equate his ability with them at this point. He hasn't sustained the success they did during their coaching years.
I don't see any reason why Jok can't fill a role similar to Matt Gatens in his senior year. A guy who can come out, get hot and hit from anywhere on the court, and at times, carry the team. We all remember wishing that Gatens had a supporting cast, and if Jok can improve shot selection, then we could that situation unfold next year. (This is speaking strictly offensively, as that seems to be the primary concern in this discussion)
Also, another poster brought it up earlier and I think it bears repeating. Moss was a guy who probably could have gotten significant minutes this year had he not been behind in schoolwork and had enough time to learn Iowa's offense/defense. I don't see any reason why he can't be a key contributor next year. In fact, I think he's a guy who will surprise a lot of people.
Personally, as others have said, I think next year will be a very balanced attack. Different guys will have the ability to stuff the stat sheet on any given night. Jok, Uhl, Baer, Jones, and maybe Moss/Ellingson/Fleming are all versatile players hitting shots from anywhere. The only issue is inexperience and a potential lack of chemistry. This likely creates a situation where when we are hitting, we can hang with any team in the Big Ten. On the other hand, there will be nights where the Hawks just aren't gelling and go through growing pains. I think 8 or 9 wins is reasonable, winning some we shouldn't but probably losing a couple we shouldn't either.
Also, another poster brought it up earlier and I think it bears repeating. Moss was a guy who probably could have gotten significant minutes this year had he not been behind in schoolwork and had enough time to learn Iowa's offense/defense. I don't see any reason why he can't be a key contributor next year. In fact, I think he's a guy who will surprise a lot of people.
Personally, as others have said, I think next year will be a very balanced attack. Different guys will have the ability to stuff the stat sheet on any given night. Jok, Uhl, Baer, Jones, and maybe Moss/Ellingson/Fleming are all versatile players hitting shots from anywhere. The only issue is inexperience and a potential lack of chemistry. This likely creates a situation where when we are hitting, we can hang with any team in the Big Ten. On the other hand, there will be nights where the Hawks just aren't gelling and go through growing pains. I think 8 or 9 wins is reasonable, winning some we shouldn't but probably losing a couple we shouldn't either.
10 wins minimum in the B1G next year, which should by my calculations at least top half. As always just my opinion on my observations .
I agree with what you say about Jok. So far in his career he has not shown much of an ability to attack off the dribble.
However, I don't think I would have described White as a true scorer before his senior year. Most of his points in his career came from alley-oops, fast breaks, or garbage points off offensive rebounds. He wasn't a good outside shooter, and he did not have very good handles. He did have an ability to get to the free throw line, as you mentioned, and that is how he did nearly half of his damage his senior year.
Jok is averaging more points per game as junior than White did as a junior, and I don't see why it is unreasonable to say that Jok will average more as a senior than White did as a senior. While Jok hasn't shown the ability to drive to the bucket, he still has an extremely quick release and can get his perimeter shot off in tight spaces, and that includes off the dribble. I don't expect Jok to suddenly be able to create a lot of space off the dribble, but with his shot he doesn't need much space, and I think the volume of his shots will increase next year which will result in him scoring 16+ points per game.
The real question for Jok next year will be how efficiently he can score. It's easy to score more when you take more shots, but if he isn't efficient with his scoring next year then this team could be in trouble, unless one of the younger players is better than expected.
Looking at the roster next year, I think there is only one player we can say is truly an above-average Big 10 player and that is Jok. Uhl and Baer should be considered at least average Big 10 players, and next year I think they could be above average. Still, in order to be in the top half of the Big 10 we will need big contributions from unproven players. I do believe there is a lot of talent in guys like Williams, Fleming, Moss, Hutton, Wagner, and Cook, but those players are still unproven and to expect any of them to be better than average Big 10 players is too much to ask for.
If everything goes right, I could see next year's team being top 25-caliber. I could also see them winning just 6 Big 10 games. It's a crapshoot, and my best guess is that they will be a weak bubble team destined for the NIT.
Who's going to handle the ball?
Who will be doing the scoring?
Jok has shown he can be a deadly outside shooter. They're going to need more than that.
Primary ball handlers will need to be replaced. Williams supposedly inheriting this, but haven't seen enough to know how that will go.
Who will be doing the scoring?
Jok has shown he can be a deadly outside shooter. They're going to need more than that.
Primary ball handlers will need to be replaced. Williams supposedly inheriting this, but haven't seen enough to know how that will go.
Nor have we seen much of Moss handling the ball, but in high school" high" level he had an ankle breaking crossover
Moss is the biggest mystery and frustration to me because we haven't even seen him play in the PTL yet. Just a handful of exhibition minutes and tantalizing potential on tape.
Again, nobody really has a clue at this point.
Jok, Uhl and Baer? Were going to make predictions based on those three? Seriously? Two role players and a jump shooter?
Almost all the ball handlers and post players are unknowns.
We know little about Jones other than he can shoot and we don't even know what his injury is or if he will recover.
The only thing we know is that Joks going to shoot allot. That's it.
Jok, Uhl and Baer? Were going to make predictions based on those three? Seriously? Two role players and a jump shooter?
Almost all the ball handlers and post players are unknowns.
We know little about Jones other than he can shoot and we don't even know what his injury is or if he will recover.
The only thing we know is that Joks going to shoot allot. That's it.
Regarding concerns about PG next year...I am not worried offensively. If you look back at MG 4 years ago, he did not have the 3 pt shooters surrounding him that we have today. Good 3 pt shooters opens up the court to give the PG more room to create. We will have more talent on the floor, with better shooters, than we did 4 years ago. I think if Ellingson, Fleming, Moss group can step up at the 2 spot, we will be a decent team.
What will we lack next year? overall in game experience...you can't lose 4 starting seniors & not. However if we are talking about the B1G ..we do have the non-conference games to gain some prior to.
What will be back is the system being run by Fran & staff.. we have 5 guys who would have played in it over 10+ minutes the previous year(Jok,Uhl,Baer,Ellingson,Wagner) and 2 who saw some time (Fleming,Williams) .. and 2 redshirts who were in the system for an entire year.
To me ... the difference between taking a step back (because of experience) or maintaining...is leadership. Who will be the guy(s) who will step up?...right now we are loaded with leadership...all in their own way...Gesell...Clemmons...Uthoff...Woody.
Leadership
Experience
Talent
Not concerned about the Talent...Experience comes in time..its the Leadership that is in question for me...not saying no one will...just not sure who.
What will be back is the system being run by Fran & staff.. we have 5 guys who would have played in it over 10+ minutes the previous year(Jok,Uhl,Baer,Ellingson,Wagner) and 2 who saw some time (Fleming,Williams) .. and 2 redshirts who were in the system for an entire year.
To me ... the difference between taking a step back (because of experience) or maintaining...is leadership. Who will be the guy(s) who will step up?...right now we are loaded with leadership...all in their own way...Gesell...Clemmons...Uthoff...Woody.
Leadership
Experience
Talent
Not concerned about the Talent...Experience comes in time..its the Leadership that is in question for me...not saying no one will...just not sure who.
I think leadership is one thing that has been lacking on this team...and for the last 2-3 years. But...I think it has improved a bit the last few games.
Young players, who replace seniors, can be better than the more "experienced" players...and can also be leaders, when the seniors are no longer in the building. Younger players lack experience...but also lack the "emotional wounds" that seniors carry with them, of games lost and piddled away, from games gone by.
This is a dynamic that occurs all the time...not always...but it exists in great numbers...
Young players, who replace seniors, can be better than the more "experienced" players...and can also be leaders, when the seniors are no longer in the building. Younger players lack experience...but also lack the "emotional wounds" that seniors carry with them, of games lost and piddled away, from games gone by.
This is a dynamic that occurs all the time...not always...but it exists in great numbers...
Not sure how we get a transfer when we are looking for a scholarship for Baer and from what I have heard thus far nobody is considering transfering out. That would have already happened IMO with those Freshman (Flem, Moss, Hutton) I think they see an opportunity for next year with 4 graduating seniors
Experience = leadership...more times than not they come hand in hand. You hear every fall from your seniors of how they are helping the new guys & you hear from freshman of how they are learning from the upper class guys. Iowa has had really good leadership the last several years. You don't win twice as many games then you have lost since 2013 (79-41) without it.
At times experience and leadership go hand in hand...but not always...sometimes youth is served, and surprises...
Iowa's "habit" of losing close games and big leads...is pretty well documented...often, leadership was lacking...and collapses occurred with one player trying to do it all...(fill in the blank) as others stood around...to end in a loss...with hanging heads... Often, no one seemed to be the general that was needed to "lead them." Just my two cents...as a fan... I don't recall all the details of all the pissed away games...but they were and are painful to watch...troops, demoralized, waiting for someone to tell them what to do..."Who's in charge here?"
Iowa's "habit" of losing close games and big leads...is pretty well documented...often, leadership was lacking...and collapses occurred with one player trying to do it all...(fill in the blank) as others stood around...to end in a loss...with hanging heads... Often, no one seemed to be the general that was needed to "lead them." Just my two cents...as a fan... I don't recall all the details of all the pissed away games...but they were and are painful to watch...troops, demoralized, waiting for someone to tell them what to do..."Who's in charge here?"
79 wins
41 losses
you want to judge & focus on the losses... have at it...good thing we don't have a coach or players who hang their heads ...like some of their so called fans.
As hard as it maybe for some to comprehend this..sometimes your opponent played better. Sometimes the breaks don't always go your way. Isn't it a shame that athletics doesn't always fit someone's fantasy world. No one on this team or the previous were "waiting for someone to tell them what to do". What a stupid comment.
I appreciate the talent & leadership it takes to compete in the B1G conference...what is that now 9 straight now? But I'm sure if we happen to lose tomorrow the troops can get back to feeling demoralized.
What a joke.
41 losses
you want to judge & focus on the losses... have at it...good thing we don't have a coach or players who hang their heads ...like some of their so called fans.
As hard as it maybe for some to comprehend this..sometimes your opponent played better. Sometimes the breaks don't always go your way. Isn't it a shame that athletics doesn't always fit someone's fantasy world. No one on this team or the previous were "waiting for someone to tell them what to do". What a stupid comment.
I appreciate the talent & leadership it takes to compete in the B1G conference...what is that now 9 straight now? But I'm sure if we happen to lose tomorrow the troops can get back to feeling demoralized.
What a joke.Bob...this is a talk group for fans...you are aware of that, correct? Teams don't win all games...posters don't always post things that make you feel good, that fit into your world view of Iowa sports.
Joke...stupid...not nice... "Thou Shalt Not Use Naughty Words"
Iowa had been in the habit of losing the majority of their close games...are you aware of this? It isn't about focusing on losses...it is a fact that sticks out...that needed to be changed. I will be cheering with you vs MSU...
Joke...stupid...not nice... "Thou Shalt Not Use Naughty Words"
Iowa had been in the habit of losing the majority of their close games...are you aware of this? It isn't about focusing on losses...it is a fact that sticks out...that needed to be changed. I will be cheering with you vs MSU...
this is a talk group ? No really? ...and that's what I'm doing...I cant help it if you don't like it.. stupid & joke is using naughty words? sensitive.
You "don't recall all the details of all the pissed away games." So, "joke" and stupid" are naughty words, but "pissed" isn't? You're a walking, talking hypocrite, Rev. Be careful what you preach.
Rev .habit of losing close games... would you have preferred they lose them by more?
maybe you would feel better about yourself had Iowa not won the 9 games in a row by the margins they did.
like beating #1 by 13 pts (if they could have lowered that to 5 would that been better?)
or the other 2 games..margins of 7 & 11.
last year in the B1G we won by margins of 6,11,2,8,18,16, 34, 28, 6,4,14,17 ( 10 of the 12 over 5pt margins) I suppose if we could have lowered the margin on the two 6pt wins & maybe the 8 point win..you could feel better.
last year losses by: 14, 32, 4, 11, 5 & 5...had we loss the 3 close games by more margin maybe we could break our "habit".
Jok is a lock. He will most likely swing between the 2-3.
I think the (4-5) will take care of itself with a mix of Uhl, Jones, Wagner, Cook, Pemsl, Kriener.
It will be the development of the backcourt specifically on the defensive end that will need to steadily progress. All that experience will be missed at first. The poise and intangibles that Gesell and Sap play with especially on the road are incredible. It will take some time but I think Williams, Bohannon, Ellingson, Fleming and Moss will bring it.
At the 3 Jok, Baer and Hutton. will be dynamic.
I have feeling that since Hutton and Moss have sees what Baer did with his red-shirt year, they are going to explode on the scene. Hutton wants to be B1G DPOY, he is probably on Uthoff in practice learning from the best.
The keys will be passed on next season and it will take some time to come together. With as much experience as this years team had it still took some time to pull it together.
A lot of movable parts!
I think the (4-5) will take care of itself with a mix of Uhl, Jones, Wagner, Cook, Pemsl, Kriener.
It will be the development of the backcourt specifically on the defensive end that will need to steadily progress. All that experience will be missed at first. The poise and intangibles that Gesell and Sap play with especially on the road are incredible. It will take some time but I think Williams, Bohannon, Ellingson, Fleming and Moss will bring it.
At the 3 Jok, Baer and Hutton. will be dynamic.
I have feeling that since Hutton and Moss have sees what Baer did with his red-shirt year, they are going to explode on the scene. Hutton wants to be B1G DPOY, he is probably on Uthoff in practice learning from the best.
The keys will be passed on next season and it will take some time to come together. With as much experience as this years team had it still took some time to pull it together.
A lot of movable parts!
tim out? oh time...wow at my age I don't think anyone ever said that.
oh I've already admitted....I will always view things (which includes Iowa BB) in a positive way ...when the positive outweighs the negative...makes me feel better....the close losses have actually declined...the margin of wins have actually increased..you can go back 2 seasons ago,,even 3 if you want..but I prefer to focus on progress & today.
leadership lacking
collapses
hanging heads
pissed away games
painful
demoralized
these are your words....that's OK we just have 2 different views on things.
one positive
one negative
Actually, I am pretty positive about the team right now...predicted Iowa by 10-12 on another thread...like what MG is doing, love Baer, Uhl...Uthoff...Fran's coaching... Need a new PG...hope that works out. Conference title is there to be had... Final Four...it is possible...which shows how far the team has come with Fran...my two cents on the positive.
Don't like to see the team fold under the pressure of a close game...but who does?
Glad you are positive 24/7...all types of fans...
Your time out is over...now...don't screw up again...
Don't like to see the team fold under the pressure of a close game...but who does?
Glad you are positive 24/7...all types of fans...
Your time out is over...now...don't screw up again...
Good points regarding Jok. I think Jok can be every bit as productive his senior year as White was his senior year. My knock on him is only that he's not a creator. This doesn't mean I think he's a bad player. He's a good player. He's a shooter, and a very good one. The negative with his game is there are going to be games when his shot isn't dropping. A guy like White was never a great outside shooter, however, he could find other ways to score. It might be garbage points, leading the fast break, or getting to the free throw line. If Jok was better at driving to the bucket it would open up his outside game and it would allow him to score points even when his outside shot isn't falling. As good of a FT shooter as Jok is I wish he would get the line more often, but jump shooters don't get fouled that much.
Hard to make a prediction about next year's team because we don't know what other B1G teams have returning and the talent level of their incoming freshmen. I wouldn't be surprised to see Iowa have some early struggles because of the youth. I suspect Iowa will be a much saltier team in Mar of 2017 than they will be in Nov/Dec 2016.
We have a transfer almost every year under fran and I just don't think this year will be any different. We are also bringin in a good freshman class to compete for minutes
What always bugs me is that people get hung up on what someone does as a freshman, or what they don't do. I've seen really talented freshman step in and be big contributors, and I've seen really talented freshman contribute very little.
Much of that has less to do with their abilities, and more to do with the talent and roster around them. This years freshman class is a great example. Not a lot was expected of them because of the 5 key returning starters, other than some depth.
Turn the page back to Fran's first season at Iowa and the contributions Fran got from his 1st 2 recruits in Basabe and Cartwright.
I look back to Iowa's only Big Ten Freshman of the Year (Jess Settles), had Chris Street not passed and came back for Senior season, would Jess have been needed to put up the numbers he did? Probably not. Jess walked into a perfect storm.
Just to remember the before Fran days, here is each years recruiting classes by how many departed/how many signed.... let me tell you, this was very depressing realizing that Fran's 1st class was the 1st class in I don't know how long Iowa didn't loose anyone...WOW!
2000 2/? of class departed (Courtney Scott/Sean Sonderleiter)
2001 2/3 of class departed (Marcellous Sommerville/Pierre Pierce)
2002 1/3 of class departed (Josh Rhodes)
2003 2/4 of class departed (Nick DeWitz/Ben Rand)
2004 2/5 of class departed (Alex Thompson/Carlton Reed)
2005 2/3 of class departed (Nathan Skinner/Tony Freeman)
2006 3/5 of class departed (Josh Crawford/Jamie Vanderbeken/Tyler Smith)
2007 2/3 of class departed (Jake Kelly/Jeff Peterson)
2008 3/6 of class departed (Jermain Davis/Aaron Fuller/Anthony Tucker)
2009 3/4 of class departed (Brennan Cougill/Culley Payne/Devon Archie*)
2010 0/4 of class departed (Fran's 1st year... do not count Brust or Larson who were given release (Basabe/Cartwright filled nicely)
2011 1/4 of class departed (Hubbard before school even started)
2012 2/5 of class departed (Ingram/Meyer)
2013 0/1
2014 1/3 of class departed (Trey Dickerson)
2015 0/6
Much of that has less to do with their abilities, and more to do with the talent and roster around them. This years freshman class is a great example. Not a lot was expected of them because of the 5 key returning starters, other than some depth.
Turn the page back to Fran's first season at Iowa and the contributions Fran got from his 1st 2 recruits in Basabe and Cartwright.
I look back to Iowa's only Big Ten Freshman of the Year (Jess Settles), had Chris Street not passed and came back for Senior season, would Jess have been needed to put up the numbers he did? Probably not. Jess walked into a perfect storm.
Just to remember the before Fran days, here is each years recruiting classes by how many departed/how many signed.... let me tell you, this was very depressing realizing that Fran's 1st class was the 1st class in I don't know how long Iowa didn't loose anyone...WOW!
2000 2/? of class departed (Courtney Scott/Sean Sonderleiter)
2001 2/3 of class departed (Marcellous Sommerville/Pierre Pierce)
2002 1/3 of class departed (Josh Rhodes)
2003 2/4 of class departed (Nick DeWitz/Ben Rand)
2004 2/5 of class departed (Alex Thompson/Carlton Reed)
2005 2/3 of class departed (Nathan Skinner/Tony Freeman)
2006 3/5 of class departed (Josh Crawford/Jamie Vanderbeken/Tyler Smith)
2007 2/3 of class departed (Jake Kelly/Jeff Peterson)
2008 3/6 of class departed (Jermain Davis/Aaron Fuller/Anthony Tucker)
2009 3/4 of class departed (Brennan Cougill/Culley Payne/Devon Archie*)
2010 0/4 of class departed (Fran's 1st year... do not count Brust or Larson who were given release (Basabe/Cartwright filled nicely)
2011 1/4 of class departed (Hubbard before school even started)
2012 2/5 of class departed (Ingram/Meyer)
2013 0/1
2014 1/3 of class departed (Trey Dickerson)
2015 0/6
I get that, but we would need 2 players to transfer for us to bring in a transfer, we are full as is and that is without Baer having a scholly. If one transfers I would assume that goes to Baer, being that I also assume he will start
The transfers of Freeman, Peterson, Kelly, Fuller under Lick said it all...they didn't want to play for him
Vanderbeken never enrolled at Iowa...played for ISU I believe
Archie?
Hubbard ... we all know the story (and stories)..I really don't get overly concerned over someone who never made it to fall practice let alone putting on a IOWA uniform. This would be the same case with Skinner & Rhodes...I understand there were verbals..maybe even LOI's..but I don't see how they are transfers when they were never on the Iowa bench in uniform or red shirting or in fall class for that matter.
I simply went by those that committed and/or signed LOI's. If they didn't make it to campus it is still a miss on the coaching staffs for putting their eggs in a basket without a bottom.
Brust/Larson were different stories as that was a coaching change and were both granted their release by Iowa (and Fran had his guys waiting in the wings... Basabe/Cartwright)
Archie I put the * by because he left the team just prior to the end of his senior season, Feb. 19th game at home vs. Indina was his final game played.... (No Senior Day, no Big Ten Tourney or NIT)
I actually don't know the story (or stories) about why Hubbard left. It was all hush hush and very odd at the time. Fran took a bit of a risk bringing in a 25 year old convicted felon. I remember Hubbard played PTL that summer and took summer classes and then IIRC less than a month before the fall semester he left.
I forgot about Archie. I remember that season our center was referred to as Bromm/Arch. What a strange thing to leave the team right before senior day like that. Does anyone know the story there? (I hope he at least finished school and got a degree)
I forgot about Archie. I remember that season our center was referred to as Bromm/Arch. What a strange thing to leave the team right before senior day like that. Does anyone know the story there? (I hope he at least finished school and got a degree)
