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What to watch for in tonight's CFP Poll

T

Teldar

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Sep 12, 2010
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Where do we get ranked? Popular opinion is between 6th - 8th with an outside chance of staying at 9th (Man, I hope not). It's safe to assume that Clemson,Ohio State, Alabama, Notre Dame, and Baylor will stay ahead of us. There is also a good chance that Oklahoma State jumps us. That doesn't concern me. They also might keep LSU ahead of us. That doesn't concern me either. We will jump them if we win the Big Ten.

The team to watch is Stanford. There is a chance they pass us this week even though they don't deserve to. Right now I have them right behind us. But if they win out the regular season with Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame coming up, they pass us in the next three weeks.


My Top Ten projection (what I think they will rank, not what I would rank) this week is:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4.Oklahoma State
5. Baylor
6. Notre Dame
7. LSU
8. Iowa
9. Stanford
10. Florida
 
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Id say pretty accurate. I feel they will keep Iowa 5 or below until/if they win the Big10.
 
If Iowa wins out they are in the play-off. If they lose 1, Iowa is out.
 
markfromj said:
What does this mean? Does this mean "eventually, something will happen" or does this mean "If Iowa wins out, it will be in the playoff"?
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It means he is in denial of reality. The sad fact of the matter is that an undefeated Iowa does not control its own destiny and that's a shame. If a P5 team goes undefeated, they should be guaranteed a spot when there isn't four other undefeated teams. But as I have highlighted in a previous post, there is a real risk of getting left out if Clemson, Alabama, Baylor/Oklahoma State, and Stanford win out and it really pisses me off.
 
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Iowa was 9th last week. TCU and MSU losing (+2 spots) fall below Iowa and OkSt jumps above (-1 spot). So Iowa will be 8th, unless the committee places LSU behind Iowa after their loss to Alabama, then they'd be 7th.

If Stanford jumps Iowa I think that will irk Iowa fans more than anything, until next week's complaints.
 
libertyhawkeye said:
Iowa was 9th last week. TCU and MSU losing (+2 spots) fall below Iowa and OkSt jumps above (-1 spot). So Iowa will be 8th, unless the committee places LSU behind Iowa after their loss to Alabama, then they'd be 7th.

If Stanford jumps Iowa I think that will irk Iowa fans more than anything, until next week's complaints.
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That's why I said potentially 9th. The only way we're 9th is if they keep LSU ahead of us and Stanford jumps in front of us. I don't think they will do it, but if they do, the inmates in the asylum here will go crazy and then maybe, just maybe, they will pull their heads out of the sand and realize we aren't guaranteed a spot in the CFP yet, even with an undefeated record.
 
How many times it will be called out that Iowa is ranked too high, if they are mentioned at all. And the arguments will be (depending on who they're being compared to) the schedule being too soft, their offense doesn't put up enough points, or the ever reliable fallback, they don't pass the eye test.
 
What are some of the games this weekend that have impact on these rankings. Doesn Oklahoma and Baylor play? Also if Oklahoma beats Baylor do they also jump ahead of us?
 
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I'll call...

1. Clemson
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Notre Dame
5. Baylor
6. LSU
7. Iowa
8. Oklahoma State
9. Stanford
10. Florida

Every week more and more are beginning to believe that Iowa is actually a really good team and not just benefiting from their schedule. I wouldn't be too surprised to see Iowa at 6 and LSU at 7 either. LSU was beat down. But I do agree with the other poster. Iowa will sit outside the top 4 until they win the Big Ten Championship.
 
Ray Kinsella said:
How many times it will be called out that Iowa is ranked too high, if they are mentioned at all. And the arguments will be (depending on who they're being compared to) the schedule being too soft, their offense doesn't put up enough points, or the ever reliable fallback, they don't pass the eye test.
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If any of the talking heads continue on with the schedule is too soft b******* they need to be discredited immediately that means they didn't do homework.

It's like listening to the media talk about the GOP. It's all narrative with very little basis in fact. But it sure sells to the ill-informed and agenda-driven.
 
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HIGHLY unlikely scenario though, Teldar. Stanford has to beat Notre Dame with a New Years Six bowl on the line, Baylor has to beat TCU, AND Oklahoma, AND Oklahoma State (all with their #2 qb), while Oklahoma State has to beat Baylor AND Oklahoma. The Sooners also have the best defense in the conference (maybe the only defense in the conference) and Stoops has them playing great football. North Carolina is going to be a TOUGH out for Clemson with just 1 loss currently. Yeah, it's possible, but I think we'd jump Stanford at the end of the season in your scenario as an undefeated. Besides, our "consolation" would be the Rose Bowl as an undefeated. I'd take it!
 
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Menace Sockeyes said:
HIGHLY unlikely scenario though, Teldar. Stanford has to beat Notre Dame with a New Years Six bowl on the line, Baylor has to beat TCU, AND Oklahoma, AND Oklahoma State (all with their #2 qb), while Oklahoma State has to beat Baylor AND Oklahoma. The Sooners also have the best defense in the conference (maybe the only defense in the conference) and Stoops has them playing great football. North Carolina is going to be a TOUGH out for Clemson with just 1 loss currently. Yeah, it's possible, but I think we'd jump Stanford at the end of the season in your scenario as an undefeated. Besides, our "consolation" would be the Rose Bowl as an undefeated. I'd take it!
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Menace, I don't disagree there is a lot of football left. What I can't stand is when people on this board GUARANTEE and undefeated Iowa makes it because it just isn't true. And the more I think about it, I think a loss Stanford team at the end of the season stays ranked ahead of us, unfortunately.
 
Teldar said:
Menace, I don't disagree there is a lot of football left. What I can't stand is when people on this board GUARANTEE and undefeated Iowa makes it because it just isn't true. And the more I think about it, I think a loss Stanford team at the end of the season stays ranked ahead of us, unfortunately.
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I cant believe people think an UNDEFEATED B1G champion would get left out under any scenario unless all 5 conference champions were undefeated. That isn't happening this year. So if Iowa goes 13-0 they are in. Do you think the committee would consider the meltdown if Iowa was left out, wins the Rose Bowl and goes 14-0 and they have to crown a 1-loss champion over an undefeated B1G champion? The entire system would collapse. The committee will ensure an undefeated P5 champion gets in over a 1-loss team.
 
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Cushawk said:
I cant believe people think an UNDEFEATED B1G champion would get left out under any scenario unless all 5 conference champions were undefeated. That isn't happening this year. So if Iowa goes 13-0 they are in. Do you think the committee would consider the meltdown if Iowa was left out, wins the Rose Bowl and goes 14-0 and they have to crown a 1-loss champion over an undefeated B1G champion? The entire system would collapse. The committee will ensure an undefeated P5 champion gets in over a 1-loss team.
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I see my "head in the sand" buddy who doesn't like to consider data when forming his opinions is back. What took you so long?
 
Teldar said:
I see my "head in the sand" buddy who doesn't like to consider data when forming his opinions is back. What took you so long?
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Head in the sand? lol Seems to me your head is stuck far up somewhere else if you believe the committee will leave out an undefeated B1G champion. How do you breathe?
 
Cushawk said:
I cant believe people think an UNDEFEATED B1G champion would get left out under any scenario unless all 5 conference champions were undefeated. That isn't happening this year. So if Iowa goes 13-0 they are in. Do you think the committee would consider the meltdown if Iowa was left out, wins the Rose Bowl and goes 14-0 and they have to crown a 1-loss champion over an undefeated B1G champion? The entire system would collapse. The committee will ensure an undefeated P5 champion gets in over a 1-loss team.
Click to expand...


I kind of agree with this. It would be a dangerous precedence to set for outgoing years. It is not as if Iowa scheduled an ultra soft non conference season. We did have two power 5 conference foes before the conference season. Wisky off this week and Northwestern with thrash Purdue so they both continue to help although one will lose one more. I hope that is Northwestern as our margin of victory over NU plus the Stanford loss to them can't hurt us when final decisions are made. Someone also needs to wake the committee up on the West Vs. East actual performance this year. I think it all comes out well but......Minnesota up next!

As far as tonight's ranking I would not be surprised with 7 or 8. Would like to see LSU fall below us as they won't be in the final 4 anyway unless a bunch of stuff happens in front of them that SEEMS a little unlikely right now.
 
If the Hawks were to defeat an unbeaten Ohio State that would be a win that likely would jump them similar to the Oakie State win.
 
No doubt in my mind. Also, it seems to be a consensus across all other cfb forums that if Iowa wins out and the B1G they will be in. Also the talking heads have mentioned it plenty of times. We will have at least three road wins vs ranked teams.
 
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Cushawk said:
Head in the sand? lol Seems to me your head is stuck far up somewhere else if you believe the committee will leave out an undefeated B1G champion. How do you breathe?
Click to expand...

OP is clueless. He actually thinks it matters if Stanford is ahead of Iowa at this point.
 
I'm with Ray on this one, Okie State 6, LSU 7, and Iowa 8. I'm ok with this. OSU has a better "perceived" win then any Iowa have right now and they are undefeated as well, LSU will always pass the eye test over Iowa because of their athletes, and there are still 4 more playoff rankings to come out.

I am also on board with Cushawk's interpretation of how things would play out if Iowa runs the table, including a B1G championship game win. No way in hell they put Stanford above Iowa in the final polls if we run the table. My biggest worry is the Notre Dame factor. If Baylor or OSU run the table in the Big 12, one of them will be in along with Clemson and Alabama. Even if the Hawks beat Ohio State for the B1G, I still think they take Notre Dame over Iowa for the playoffs simply because they are Notre Dame. If they do this however, Iowa still goes to the Rose Bowl and plays most likely Stanford or Utah and if they win that game, college football has a real problem on their hands no matter who wins the playoff and even more so if it's Alabama or Notre Dame. An undefeated B1G champ with it's last two wins over defending national champ Ohio State and the Pac 12 champ? Maybe Ohio State, Michigan, MSU, Wis, and Northwestern all have a great bowl week, the AP might vote Iowa #1 and there would be a split championship, the exact thing this playoff was supposed to stop from happening. I actually almost hope for this scenario to see the backlash this would create. I also have a much more faith in our Hawks beating a 1 or 2 loss Pac 12 champ then winning 2 games against the playoff teams. I love my Hawks and really enjoy the success of this team, but winning 2 straight games over those teams is one tall order.

I say we let those things play out for now and just enjoy the fact our Hawks are 9-0 and cheer them on over a division rival this weekend. If chaos does ensue, just enjoy the fact our Hawks had a really incredible season and are the focus of the national discussion.

Go Hawks
 
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Facts are facts.

Iowa is currently 9-0. That is fantastic. No doubt about it. However, let's look at who Iowa's opponents have beaten. That's where it doesn't look quite so nice. 7 of Iowa's opponents (ISU, Iowa State, Pitt, North Texas State, Indiana, Maryland and Illinois) have yet to log a win over a FBS team that currently has a winning record. Wisconsin's only win over a FBS team with a current winning record came against the 5-4 Illini. Northwestern, on the other hand, has victories over 8-1 Stanford, 7-3 Penn State and 6-3 Duke.

Remainder of schedule?
1. Minnesota - currently at 4-5 with games against Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin remaining. Quite likely that Minnesota doesn't finish the season above .500. (And, let's face it, if they do, then this whole discussion is moot). 0 wins against FBS teams with a current winning record.
2. Purdue - currently at 2-7. They won't be sniffing anything close to .500. 0 wins against FBS teams with a current winning record.
3. Nebraska - currently at 4-6. They could get to .500 by winning last two games. They have a "quality" win on the resume by virtue of the win over MSU.

So . . . if Iowa runs the table (a big IF) and heads to the B1G championship game, it will have:
1. An 8-0 record against B1G opponents and it is quite likely that only 2 of those 8 teams will have winning records in the conference (unless Illinois wins 2 of last 3 and it is a tall order with OSU, Minnesota and Northwestern on its schedule).
2. Entirely feasible that Iowa's opponents end up with a grand total of 6 wins against FBS teams with winning records. Due to the Wisco/NW game, one of those teams will add another win over a . .500 FBS team to its total.
3. Iowa's regular season "signature" win will be its thrashing of Northwestern. Sorry . . but puffing out your chest and saying that you throttled Northwestern (no matter how true it may be) won't exactly win over many doubters.
4. Iowa's other "signature" wins will be over Wisconsin and Pitt. I'm not saying that those are "bad" wins. Not in the least. But you can't look past the fact that neither Wisconsin nor Pitt has beaten anyone of any consequence thus far.

That's why I have been writing for a while that, if you want Iowa to have the best chance possible at a CFP invitation or the consolation prize Rose Bowl invite, you have to hope that Wisconsin and Northwestern keeps winning, that Pitt wins against the better ACC opponents (they face 3 straight teams with winning records) and that OSU is undefeated and the opponent in the B1G championship game.

Iowa beats an undefeated OSU in the B1G championship game? They are in.
Iowa beats a one-loss MSU or OSU or a two-loss Michigan? SoS is going to play a factor. A big factor. In that scenario, you'll have advocates of Stanford, Notre Dame and some Big 12 school screaming "where is Iowa's "signature" win?" I'm not saying that an Iowa win over a one-loss or two-loss opponent in the B1G championship is anything less than Stanford's win over ND and Utah or ND's win over Stanford and Temple or the Big 12 champions win over some combination of Baylor/TCU/Okie State/Oklahoma. I'm simply saying that there will be many questions about whether Iowa has truly beaten a team of consequence.

My money is still on an undefeated Iowa getting a CFP invite but I agree with those who say that there are scenarios which will make us sweat a little.
 
Teldar said:
That's why I said potentially 9th. The only way we're 9th is if they keep LSU ahead of us and Stanford jumps in front of us. I don't think they will do it, but if they do, the inmates in the asylum here will go crazy and then maybe, just maybe, they will pull their heads out of the sand and realize we aren't guaranteed a spot in the CFP yet, even with an undefeated record.
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Okay, well let's put it this way.............if Iowa goes 13-0 with a win over Ohio State, there is at least a 70% chance that they get into the CFP.

(Oh and that 70% was just to give you a false sense of security in your own opinion, which differs from that...........)

Things would have to happen, and yeah they could happen, for Iowa to be left out..........and the committee would still have to make the decision to leave Iowa out even after the "things" happen.

Deal with it. Stop worrying.

If anyone wants to reply, "I (we) should be worried"........I don't give a f***. You're welcome.
 
Teldar said:
Where do we get ranked? Popular opinion is between 6th - 8th with an outside chance of staying at 9th (Man, I hope not). It's safe to assume that Clemson,Ohio State, Alabama, Notre Dame, and Baylor will stay ahead of us. There is also a good chance that Oklahoma State jumps us. That doesn't concern me. They also might keep LSU ahead of us. That doesn't concern me either. We will jump them if we win the Big Ten.

The team to watch is Stanford. There is a chance they pass us this week even though they don't deserve to. Right now I have them right behind us. But if they win out the regular season with Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame coming up, they pass us in the next three weeks.


My Top Ten projection (what I think they will rank, not what I would rank) this week is:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4.Oklahoma State
5. Baylor
6. Notre Dame
7. LSU
8. Iowa
9. Stanford
10. Florida
Click to expand...

While they certainly could pass Iowa, I don't think Okie State jumps from 14 to 4 by beating the team that was at #8. Other than that I generally agree with your projection.
 
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If Stanford jumps Iowa this week, I'd like to see their explanation considering they beat Colorado last weekend. Colorado is 1-5 in league, 4-6 overall.

I still don't quite understand what OkSU beating TCU proves to justify them jumping Iowa. They beat a team whose best victory so far looks like winning by 6 at Minnesota. Okie State played Central Michigan, Central Arkansas, and Texas-San Antonio in the non-con.

Iowa State this weekend is arguably their toughest road game up to that point this year.

For that matter, I don't understand how the B12 translates at all nationally, considering that this TCU win over the Gophers - and the Oklahoma win at Tennessee - are the two best non-con wins of those 4 teams combined. The team that clears the B12 will be a champion of a league whose best non-con wins are those two games period.

So...if you're an undefeated B12 champion, what exactly did you prove? That you passed the "eye test"?
 
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Undefeated Big Ten team is in the College Football Playoff.
Anyone that says different is trolling, and to great effect.

Please don't feed Teldar's shtick anymore.
 
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OC SOS may kill B12. all we'll know is that their winner is better than Tennessee and Minnesota and the other B12 teams. Also because of northwestern games they cannot rank Stanford above an undefeated Iowa. And most importantly, as someone posted recently, committee cannot allow an undefeated power 5 champion miss the playoff and potentially finish 14-0 and have a one loss CFP champ. This system does not want split NCs
 
markfromj said:
What does this mean? Does this mean "eventually, something will happen" or does this mean "If Iowa wins out, it will be in the playoff"?
Click to expand...

IMO- It means if you win all the games, you'll make the playoffs.

If you don't make the playoffs you'll make a big time bowl. No point in worrying about that which we have no control.

Just win baby!

GO HAWKS!
 
swihawk said:
IMO- It means if you win all the games, you'll make the playoffs.

If you don't make the playoffs you'll make a big time bowl. No point in worrying about that which we have no control.

Just win baby!

GO HAWKS!
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So says the guy who last week guaranteed Michigan State would beat Nebraska. As a matter of fact you mocked me for even suggesting Nebraska could beat Michigan State. How did that prediction work out for you?
 
I think this should be what do you think the poll should look like and not what do you think the committee will do.
I think the poll should be:

1. Ohio State
2. Clemson
3. Baylor
4. Alabama
5. Notre Dame
6. Iowa
7. Oklahoma State
8. Stanford
9. LSU
10. Oklahoma

This is how it should look like in my opinion this week.
 
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binsfeldcyhawk2 said:
Good point. Just look at last year when tOSU jumped both Baylor and TCU after the B1G Championship game. Just have to keep winning.....
Click to expand...

Yep, just have to go undefeated. All of those teams, Baylor, tOSU and TCU had 1 loss last year, so anything can happen with 1 loss. The committee could have chosen any of those teams and justified it. If undefeated though, that's a different story.
 
Big Ten should be VERY well represented this week so that should help the Hawks overall. Ohio State should be 2 or 3. Iowa should be 7 or 8. Michigan St at 13 or 14. Michigan at 15. Northwestern (was 21) should move up to 18 or so. Wisconsin should be around 22.

#7 MSU, # 8 TCU, # 13 Memphis, # 16 FSU, # 18 Ole Miss, # 19 A & M, and # 24 Toledo all lost making room for NW and Wisc to move up.

Taking the names off of the front of the jerseys (Iowa is not a BLUE BLOOD), based on resume so far vs Top 25 wins (both on the road and one of them by 30 pts), Iowa SHOULD be higher than 7 or 8 but won't be tonight.

Hawks just win the next two and they will be sitting extremely good as the teams around them continue to get picked off...
 
binsfeldcyhawk2 said:
Good point. Just look at last year when tOSU jumped both Baylor and TCU after the B1G Championship game. Just have to keep winning.....
Click to expand...

Exactly. Go back and study what the committee did last year. These rankings are almost worthless. The only one that matters is the one AFTER the conference championships and the committee made it abundantly clear that it puts a great deal of value in winning that championship game. Add in being undefeated as a power 5 team and it is as close to a lock as there can be.
 
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