What to watch for in tonight's CFP Poll

[DodgerHawki]

If the Hawks were to defeat an unbeaten Ohio State that would be a win that likely would jump them similar to the Oakie State win.

Agreed a win over Ohio State would give Iowa a bump. The problem is that if Oklahoma State goes ahead of Iowa this week, the Pokes finish vs. Baylor and Oklahoma. If they win out, Iowa has a hard time jumping Okie State because while Iowa will be defeating Ohio State, Okie State will also be getting big wins of their own.

The ESPN punditry (and the committee itself) have already played their cards on how they are viewing teams. The idiot Arkansas AD said last week that the reason TCU and Baylor were ahead of Iowa (despite Iowa's accomplishments to that date being much better) was due to their superior offenses. With each passing week, Alabama's loss to Mississippi looks worse and worse for the Tide. But no matter, the narrative was already set that Mississippi is/was a good team. That is beginning to unravel as Ole Miss got rolled by Memphis and then lost to a mediocre Arkansas team. But the Tide will not be penalized whatsoever.

The odds are still in favor of a 13-0 Iowa team making it to the playoff. The B12 has the round-robin Survivor Island playing out in November. TCU was the first off the island, only Okie State and Baylor remain. It's highly likely that Baylor loses to Oklahoma, Okie State or TCU. Okie State still must play Oklahoma in addition to Baylor. It would have helped if the Cowboys had lost K-State or to Texas Tech when trailing by 17.

In the end, I don't see Stanford getting in ahead of a 0-loss Iowa. They had a common opponent - Northwestern. Stanford lost 16-6 and Iowa won 40-10. But here is the scenario that would leave Iowa out:

• Clemson wins out (13-0, including win over Notre Dame and FSU)
• Alabama wins out. If the SEC champion has 1 loss or less, they are getting in.
• Notre Dame wins out (would have a win over Stanford). The Irish schedule isn't looking fantastic as the year is playing out, it's best wins are over Navy, 3-loss USC and Temple. Texas sucks, Virginia and Georgia Tech are bad, UMass is UMass and Pitt is decent/good. Wake Forest and BC also stink. That's a lot of wins over P5 teams who are not good. The argument could be made that an undefeated Iowa should go over ND, but I know who the committee would go with if it comes down to Iowa or ND.
• Oklahoma State wins out. Cowboys would have an impressive run of wins in November.

Where it really gets interesting is if Ohio State goes 13-0. Ohio State would not be left out in that scenario. It would have to be Notre Dame getting the boot, as I don't see how an undefeated Okie State can get left out over a 1-loss Irish.

 

[jhawkinaz]

I'm with Ray on this one, Okie State 6, LSU 7, and Iowa 8. I'm ok with this. OSU has a better "perceived" win then any Iowa have right now and they are undefeated as well, LSU will always pass the eye test over Iowa because of their athletes, and there are still 4 more playoff rankings to come out.

I am also on board with Cushawk's interpretation of how things would play out if Iowa runs the table, including a B1G championship game win. No way in hell they put Stanford above Iowa in the final polls if we run the table. My biggest worry is the Notre Dame factor. If Baylor or OSU run the table in the Big 12, one of them will be in along with Clemson and Alabama. Even if the Hawks beat Ohio State for the B1G, I still think they take Notre Dame over Iowa for the playoffs simply because they are Notre Dame. If they do this however, Iowa still goes to the Rose Bowl and plays most likely Stanford or Utah and if they win that game, college football has a real problem on their hands no matter who wins the playoff and even more so if it's Alabama or Notre Dame. An undefeated B1G champ with it's last two wins over defending national champ Ohio State and the Pac 12 champ? Maybe Ohio State, Michigan, MSU, Wis, and Northwestern all have a great bowl week, the AP might vote Iowa #1 and there would be a split championship, the exact thing this playoff was supposed to stop from happening. I actually almost hope for this scenario to see the backlash this would create. I also have a much more faith in our Hawks beating a 1 or 2 loss Pac 12 champ then winning 2 games against the playoff teams. I love my Hawks and really enjoy the success of this team, but winning 2 straight games over those teams is one tall order.

I say we let those things play out for now and just enjoy the fact our Hawks are 9-0 and cheer them on over a division rival this weekend. If chaos does ensue, just enjoy the fact our Hawks had a really incredible season and are the focus of the national discussion.

Go Hawks

This is the only scenario that could possibly derail 13-0 Iowa. I don't think this will happen, but it is the one chance for getting ****ed. I don't mind all the over-analyzing OP, if you want to talk about it talk about it, but please stop with the Stanford angle......Stanford will, under no circumstances, be chosen over an undefeated Iowa........so let that one go. And root like hell for Stanford over ND.

 

[EagleHawk]

From Collegefootballnews.com. How do we know that the SEC is the best if the only 'quality' teams they play are themselves? Iowa and Northwestern have almost as many wins against Power 5 teams as the entire SEC.

College Football Playoff committee …
CFP committee, and everyone about to complain about the rest of the column, please, please, please, please, remember this nugget …

Non-conference wins over Power 5 conference teams by each of these conferences.

Big Ten: 9
American Athletic Conference: 8
SEC: 5
Big 12: 4
Pac-12: 4
ACC: 3.5 (Since Notre Dame is sort of an ACC team, count it as a half for Clemson.)

http://collegefootballnews.com/2015...ll-playoff-problem-cavalcade-of-whimsy-nov-10

 

[hwk23]

From Collegefootballnews.com. How do we know that the SEC is the best if the only 'quality' teams they play are themselves? Iowa and Northwestern have almost as many wins against Power 5 teams as the entire SEC.

College Football Playoff committee …
CFP committee, and everyone about to complain about the rest of the column, please, please, please, please, remember this nugget …

Non-conference wins over Power 5 conference teams by each of these conferences.

Big Ten: 9
American Athletic Conference: 8
SEC: 5
Big 12: 4
Pac-12: 4
ACC: 3.5 (Since Notre Dame is sort of an ACC team, count it as a half for Clemson.)

http://collegefootballnews.com/2015...ll-playoff-problem-cavalcade-of-whimsy-nov-10

This. It would be a complete sham to hold an undefeated Big Ten team out of the playoffs and the committee knows it. The Big Ten's OOC record is much better than any other conference. They can easily justify holding out any 1 loss team, so they will.

 

[Teldar]

This is the only scenario that could possibly derail 13-0 Iowa. I don't think this will happen, but it is the one chance for getting ****ed. I don't mind all the over-analyzing OP, if you want to talk about it talk about it, but please stop with the Stanford angle......Stanford will, under no circumstances, be chosen over an undefeated Iowa........so let that one go. And root like hell for Stanford over ND.

Unfortunately, you're wrong on this. Let's say Stanford jumps us next week (That's a pretty good guess), They still have California, a Top 5 Notre Dame and Utah. If we win out, we would still have Purdue, Nebraska, and hopefully an undefeated Ohio State. So you're telling me that you think we will jump back over Stanford? Let's make it more interesting. What if we play a one loss tOSU or a two loss Michigan. You think the committee will jump us back over Stanford?

No way.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Unfortunately, you're wrong on this. Let's say Stanford jumps us next week (That's a pretty good guess), They still have California, a Top 5 Notre Dame and Utah. If we win out, we would still have Purdue, Nebraska, and hopefully an undefeated Ohio State. So you're telling me that you think we will jump back over Stanford? Let's make it more interesting. What if we play a one loss tOSU or a two loss Michigan. You think the committee will jump us back over Stanford?

No way.

If you took this any less seriously, I'd almost think you were joking.....

 

[iahawkeyes17]

My prediction for top 10 would be-
1. Clemson
2. Ohio St
3. Alabama
4. Baylor
5. ND
6. LSU (SEC love can't drop them too far)
7. Iowa
8. Okie St
9. Stanford (Jumps Florida after their escape of Vanderbilt)
10. Florida

2 spots could easily see flip flopped are Baylor/ND and Iowa/Oklahoma St.

A scenario I'd love to see at the end of the year is FSU beats Florida and the Gators upset SEC West champ in title game.

 

[FranklinHawk]

Unfortunately, you're wrong on this. Let's say Stanford jumps us next week (That's a pretty good guess), They still have California, a Top 5 Notre Dame and Utah. If we win out, we would still have Purdue, Nebraska, and hopefully an undefeated Ohio State. So you're telling me that you think we will jump back over Stanford? Let's make it more interesting. What if we play a one loss tOSU or a two loss Michigan. You think the committee will jump us back over Stanford?

No way.

I suppose anything could happen, but what makes you think Stanford will jump Iowa this week? They beat up on PAC-12 bottom dweller Colorado whose best win is probably over another PAC-12 bottom dwelling 2 win Oregon State team.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Hey Teldar, any chance you've had time to come up with an Undefeated Conference Champion who has ever been left out of the top 4 heading into bowls in favor of a 1-loss not Conference Champ?

Which conference will Notre Dame be winning to get in over us?
We own the common opponent over a 1-LOSS Stanford in case we each win our conference.

I have no problem if Iowa is 4th behind 13-0 Clemson, 12-1 Alabama, 12-0 Okie State/Baylor (or even an 11-1 Oklahoma).

Give it up, the committee will not be leaving an undefeated power 5 conference champion out of the playoff unless there are 5 such teams. This year there can only be 3.

 

[Teldar]

I suppose anything could happen, but what makes you think Stanford will jump Iowa this week? They beat up on PAC-12 bottom dweller Colorado whose best win is probably over another PAC-12 bottom dwelling 2 win Oregon State team.

FranklinHawk, good question. I don't expect them to pass us this week (although that is a possibility). I do, however expect them to pass us next week if they beat Oregon.

 

[SlabHawk]

Influential members Barry Alvarez, Tom Osborne, and (more importantly) Jim Delaney will not let an undefeated Big Ten Champion not be in a 4 team playoff this year.

 

[jhawkinaz]

Unfortunately, you're wrong on this. Let's say Stanford jumps us next week (That's a pretty good guess), They still have California, a Top 5 Notre Dame and Utah. If we win out, we would still have Purdue, Nebraska, and hopefully an undefeated Ohio State. So you're telling me that you think we will jump back over Stanford? Let's make it more interesting. What if we play a one loss tOSU or a two loss Michigan. You think the committee will jump us back over Stanford?

No way.

No, you are wrong. And I hope like hell it plays out so I can say I told you so. If Stanford's one loss was to Clemson or ND fine.....but it is to a team the Hawks beat by 30, and common opponents will be something they look at. That fact, combined with the 1-loss vs. undefeated argument makes it no possible chance. I don't know much, but I know this.

Don't care if or when Stanford passes us.......if we win CCG and go 13-0 we will pass back by them. 100% fact.

 

[wyohawk]

No, you are wrong. And I hope like hell it plays out so I can say I told you so. If Stanford's one loss was to Clemson or ND fine.....but it is to a team the Hawks beat by 30, and common opponents will be something they look at. That fact, combined with the 1-loss vs. undefeated argument makes it no possible chance. I don't know much, but I know this.

Don't care if or when Stanford passes us.......if we win CCG and go 13-0 we will pass back by them. 100% fact.

troof

 

[yerpHAWK]

As clueless as the committee is, they do look at record against common opponents, and that's why I think Stanford was behind us last week. I got Iowa at 7th.

 

[neversurrender]

No, you are wrong. And I hope like hell it plays out so I can say I told you so. If Stanford's one loss was to Clemson or ND fine.....but it is to a team the Hawks beat by 30, and common opponents will be something they look at. That fact, combined with the 1-loss vs. undefeated argument makes it no possible chance. I don't know much, but I know this.

Don't care if or when Stanford passes us.......if we win CCG and go 13-0 we will pass back by them. 100% fact.

Ok I am fine with the common opponent thing but just because why not make this thread more annoying, what if it's a 1 loss ND who beat the common opponent we have? I know we'd have the conference title but would that be enough to get us ahead of them if they go to Palo Alto and just hammer Stanford?

 

[Teldar]

No, you are wrong. And I hope like hell it plays out so I can say I told you so. If Stanford's one loss was to Clemson or ND fine.....but it is to a team the Hawks beat by 30, and common opponents will be something they look at. That fact, combined with the 1-loss vs. undefeated argument makes it no possible chance. I don't know much, but I know this.

Don't care if or when Stanford passes us.......if we win CCG and go 13-0 we will pass back by them. 100% fact.

First off, I hope it doesn't happen because I just want my damn Hawkeyes in the playoff if they win out. But you are wrong. You need to understand the criteria, which you obviously don't. Here is the criteria:

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

• Championships won
• Strength of schedule
• Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

While it is correct that outcomes of common opponents matter, Strength of Schedule is more important and Stanford will kill us on that metric.

Let's get this down to the base argument. Here are my assumptions. Of course, I assume Iowa & Stanford both win out or this subject is moot

1. Going into the CCG, Stanford will ranked ahead of us
2. Stanford will have wins over 8 bowl eligible teams including a top 15 Notre Dame team, a top 15 Utah team and probable two other ranked foes (UCLA, USC, Washington State, take your pick)
3. Iowa will have wins over 2-3 ranked teams (Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Ohio State/Michigan State/Michigan)

Now, if we beat an undefeated Ohio State team in the championship game, I think we have a chance to jump Stanford but it is not a slam dunk. However, if we beat a one loss Michigan State, a one loss Ohio State, or a two loss Michigan, we will NOT jump over a one loss Stanford.

I would like to hear your argument that if we beat a wounded Big East champ how we jump Stanford. Explain that to me without the emotional "They will never not vote a P5 undefeated team because there will be hell to pay" nonsense. That isn't a logical argument. That's an emotion.

Let's hope it doesn't come to this scenario because despite us arguing these points, we both want the same thing: Iowa in the CFP. I just take a more realistic view of the risks in front of us than a lot of people on this board.

 

[markfromj]

As clueless as the committee is...

Yeah, people like Rice and Alvarez and Osbourne and Long are clueless, but we who spend our time in cubicles changing Excel docs know so much better....

 

[Hawk12345]

Let's say Iowa goes undefeated and beats Michigan or Michigan State n the Big Ten Championship game. Let's say Notre Dame wins out and beats Stanford, which is likely to happen. I could very easily see the top four teams in the final rankings being: Clemson, Alabama, Big 12 (does the Big 12 really get left out two years in a row?), and Notre Dame, In that scenario, I think we really need to hope that Clemson is #1 and with Notre Dame being given consideration for #4, because I believe that the committee would be less likely to put a one loss Notre Dame ahead of an undefeated Iowa, if including Notre Dame in the playoffs meant that there would be a rematch of a game already played (Notre Dame v. Clemson) in the semi-finals. Public opinion should clearly be on our side in that situation.

 

[milehighhawkeye24]

I cant believe people think an UNDEFEATED B1G champion would get left out under any scenario unless all 5 conference champions were undefeated. That isn't happening this year. So if Iowa goes 13-0 they are in. Do you think the committee would consider the meltdown if Iowa was left out, wins the Rose Bowl and goes 14-0 and they have to crown a 1-loss champion over an undefeated B1G champion? The entire system would collapse. The committee will ensure an undefeated P5 champion gets in over a 1-loss team.

I completely agree with you here, however; what if 4 teams that are currently ranked ahead of Iowa continue to win....there would be a meltdown for a totally different reason IMO

 

[RedAgentRadar]

Agree. Nothing matters unless you project the final outcome after the conference championships.

Here's what happens:
1. Clemson 13-0 (Beats a nobody in ACC-CG)
2. Alabama 12-1 (Beats FL in SEC-CG)
3. Iowa 13-0 (Beats MI ST in B10-CG)
4. ND 11-1 (Only loss to Clemson), Oklahoma 11-1 (Loss to TX), or Ohio State 11-1 (loss to MI State)

Wow, what do you do if the play-off situation looks like the picture below (Iowa, ND, OK, OH ST)!

Assumes:
Baylor loses to OU and TCU
Stanford losses to OR and ND, wins PAC12-CS...finally no one cares.
OK State loses to BAY and OK

 

[Qued18]

Blue blood bias .. They want no part of iowa or okie st in their playoff

They want Alabama Ohio St ND and either Clemson or Oklahoma to join their party.

Clemson looks to have the least difficult path and should get there
Ohio St has 3 tougher games left
ND has to beat Stanford
Alabama is their golden child

Oklahoma has 3 big games left but they want them to win out so if the have to pick a Big 12 team they'd be the one they want.

 

[Hawk12345]

While there is a four team playoff, I don't believe we will ever see a second team from a conference make the playoff, unless "the second team" has at least one fewer losses than Notre Dame and the conference champions of at least two of the Big 5 conferences. In other words, no second place SEC team is ever going to make the four team playoffs unless they only have 1 loss and all the other contenders have at least 2 losses.

 

[AuroraHawk]

SIAP: Nate Silver puts Iowa's chances at 91% to make the CFP if it wins out (including B1G championship game).

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...l-probably-make-the-college-football-playoff/

 

[BeepBeepInMyJeep]

I still think unbeaten Iowa goes ahead of unbeaten Baylor or Oklahoma St. Iowa would have beaten 11 power 5 teams while Okie St or Baylor would have 9 wins plus their miserable non con schedules. The committee would basically be encouraging every team in the nation to schedule the weakest out of conference games they possibly could.

It sure would make me rest a lot easier if Oregon beats Stanford, and I really think they could. They seem to be really kicking it into gear now. Cal may be no defensive juggernaut, but they are not a pushover either.. 777 yards and no punts is mighty outstanding. I really do think Stanford will have their hands full

 

[Teldar]

SIAP: Nate Silver puts Iowa's chances at 91% to make the CFP if it wins out (including B1G championship game).

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...l-probably-make-the-college-football-playoff/

This is exactly what I have been saying. Nate Silver, who is using data to support his opinion is suggesting if we win out, we have a 91% chance of making the CFP. That means there is a 9% chance that we DON'T make the playoff even if we win all of our games. So much for all of the people GUARANTEEING a CFP spot if we win out.

 

[Qued18]

If I was a betting man
1 Clemson
2 Ohio St
3 Alabama
4 ND

On paper they have the best shot

With some luck the next 4

Baylor or Oklahoma or okie St
Iowa
Stanford
Florida

Only way they get in is win the rest but will need some help and a loss from teams above them

 

[Qued18]

I'm hoping for

1 iowa to win out
2 Baylor Oklahoma and Okie St each lose 1 more
3 Alabama beats Florida
4 Stanford one more loss

 

[wyohawk]

SIAP: Nate Silver puts Iowa's chances at 91% to make the CFP if it wins out (including B1G championship game).

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...l-probably-make-the-college-football-playoff/

All due respect to Nate Silver, whose work I greatly appreciate, but data doesn't explain all the politics and media dynamics here.

A Power 5 conference team that goes undefeated through winning its conference championship = 100% chance of making playoffs.
Every year under this system. Every time.

 

[Qued18]

Iowa wins out

Then I want chaos!

UNC beats Clemson in ACCCG
Florida loss to FSU then beats Alabama in the SECCG
Baylor loss to Oklahoma and TCU
Oklahoma loss okie St
Okie St loss to Baylor and ISU
TCU loss to Oklahoma
Stanford loss to Oregon but then beats ND

 

[Qued18]

Ohio St loss to mich st and iowa
Mich st loss to penn st
Mich loss to ohio st

1 iowa
2 Houston
3 and 4 lol

 

[Dauminator]

SIAP as I can't be bothered reading two pages of this stuff.

Watch for a bit of entertainment if you like. To get your blood all agried up over their latest excuses, or whatever. But this quibbling over what they will do is nothing more than a pastime. Because the only reasoning goes on inside those human brains in the room, and the only valuable output is their ranking at the end of the season. This stuff they put out every week from week 8+ is just something to appease TV and keep the masses talking about college football when there are no games to show.

I get that it's cool to see where we land and hear what everyone's saying (better than being ignored during a crummy season). But keep it in perspective, take a walk with your family, enjoy the season, and get hyped for the final unveiling when it really matters and Iowa is sitting at 13-0.

 

[Lumas Etima]

One team often forgot about in the paranoia arguments (no offense meant; I have my fair share of paranoia as well) is Oklahoma. If the Sooners win out, it will be with wins over Baylor, TCU, and Okie State. You better believe that there will be some talking heads arguing the one-loss Sooners are "playing the best football in the country right now." Throw in the blue-blood bias, and you've got a pplayoff contender.

I'm hopeful that OSU's spot in the top 4 right now is more or less a "placeholder" for an unbeaten B1G team, that Iowa would assume if we win out. It's a good theory. And I'll be counting on it.

But nothing is guaranteed ...

 

[ANYCHawk]

What to watch for? Iowa getting' boned.

 

[SlabHawk]

""One team often forgot about in the paranoia arguments (no offense meant; I have my fair share of paranoia as well) is Oklahoma. If the Sooners win out, it will be with wins over Baylor, TCU, and Okie State. You better believe that there will be some talking heads arguing the one-loss Sooners are "playing the best football in the country right now." Throw in the blue-blood bias, and you've got a pplayoff contender.
I'm hopeful that OSU's spot in the top 4 right now is more or less a "placeholder" for an unbeaten B1G team, that Iowa would assume if we win out. It's a good theory. And I'll be counting on it.
But nothing is guaranteed ..."

I think in this specific case, Oklahoma's loss to Texas would come up and bit them in them ass. Iowa beat that ISU team that torched Texas. Oklahoma lost to them. They will be right there in the discussion but, in the end, the undefeated team still is undefeated. Now Notre Dame (with their only loss to # 1 Clemson, is more of a concern). Good discussion though as you are right in that Okie being a blue blood would get some strong consideration.