If it gets near to
If you live in Sewer City your immunity will be more than ready to tackle this virus.
If you live in Sewer City your immunity will be more than ready to tackle this virus.
When Will You Get Worried About the Coronavirus?
- Thread starter What Would Jesus Do?
- Start date
213/12167 = 1.7%. Those dying are the elderly and those with compromised immune systems. I get being concerned bc you're old, but using black death in the same sentence as this is just reckless. Especially for someone who pretends to care about science and facts lol.
So put her on a plane and drive there and meet her. Then you don't have to rent a car.
It is getting very scary IMHO. Remember the huge SARS outbreak of 2002-2003. This one has already infected more total people and almost matched the countries impacted total in a month. It has not matched the death total but I don't think the numbers, especially deaths are caught up. They blockaded roads to 30 million people and have bodies in the street.
Does not seem to be slowing down and really it is too late to put controls in place with all the air travel that has taken place since late December. The math is scary. They estimated the Spanish Flu impacted 1/3 of the world population in a time before air travel and really even car travel. But if you use that as a conservative analogy and assume the 2.1% death rate is about right that there is potential for 2.5 billion cases and 52,500,000 deaths. Interestingly your more advanced nations may have larger outbreaks that offset better medical treatments. The Spanish Flu hit 40% of the US they say. But if you keep it at 1/3 of the US 330,000,000 population and use a low 1ish percent mortality rate you are talking 3-4 million deaths here. 5 million at 1.5 percent. 7 million at 2.1%. And heaven help us if they are under reporting deaths...
Almost every family has a close relative killed by the Spanish Flu. My grandmothers sister died from it at age 9.
Does not seem to be slowing down and really it is too late to put controls in place with all the air travel that has taken place since late December. The math is scary. They estimated the Spanish Flu impacted 1/3 of the world population in a time before air travel and really even car travel. But if you use that as a conservative analogy and assume the 2.1% death rate is about right that there is potential for 2.5 billion cases and 52,500,000 deaths. Interestingly your more advanced nations may have larger outbreaks that offset better medical treatments. The Spanish Flu hit 40% of the US they say. But if you keep it at 1/3 of the US 330,000,000 population and use a low 1ish percent mortality rate you are talking 3-4 million deaths here. 5 million at 1.5 percent. 7 million at 2.1%. And heaven help us if they are under reporting deaths...
Almost every family has a close relative killed by the Spanish Flu. My grandmothers sister died from it at age 9.
The 2.1% death rate isn't remotely accurate at this point, mainly bc A LOT of mild cases have not been reported and those dying are elderly and compromised. Pump the breaks on the fear and panic. And nice pic btw, I'm sure that person just up and dropped dead conveniently in the streetIt is getting very scary IMHO. Remember the huge SARS outbreak of 2002-2003. This one has already infected more total people and almost matched the countries impacted total in a month. It has not matched the death total but I don't think the numbers, especially deaths are caught up. They blockaded roads to 30 million people and have bodies in the street.
Does not seem to be slowing down and really it is too late to put controls in place with all the air travel that has taken place since late December. The math is scary. They estimated the Spanish Flu impacted 1/3 of the world population in a time before air travel and really even car travel. But if you use that as a conservative analogy and assume the 2.1% death rate is about right that there is potential for 2.5 billion cases and 52,500,000 deaths. Interestingly your more advanced nations may have larger outbreaks that offset better medical treatments. The Spanish Flu hit 40% of the US they say. But if you keep it at 1/3 of the US 330,000,000 population and use a low 1ish percent mortality rate you are talking 3-4 million deaths here. 5 million at 1.4 percent. 7 million at 2.1%. And heaven help us if they are under reporting deaths...
Almost every family has a close relative killed by the Spanish Flu. My grandmothers sister died from it at age 9.
Labs have already been able to recreate this virus......that is a big step in learning how to combat it including vaccines to prevent/diminish its effects.
The 2.1% death rate isn't remotely accurate at this point, mainly bc A LOT of mild cases have not been reported and those dying are elderly and compromised. Pump the breaks on the fear and panic. And nice pic btw, I'm sure that person just up and dropped dead conveniently in the street
Probably fake and was posed in San Francisco's Chinatown.
... and the vaccine will be available in about a year. Worrisome for sure, if not scary.
I don't know about you but when I'm sick I like to lay down in the street to make me feel better.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ad-streets-coronavirus-ground-zero-Wuhan.htmlThe 2.1% death rate isn't remotely accurate at this point, mainly bc A LOT of mild cases have not been reported and those dying are elderly and compromised. Pump the breaks on the fear and panic. And nice pic btw, I'm sure that person just up and dropped dead conveniently in the street
I see your side but also think a ton of deaths also have not been reported. The Spanish Flu is the one everyone worries about. It really is the most forgotten story ever. They estimate 3-6% of the world population died. The hope for us a lot of research has been spent to be ready and develop a vaccine ASAP for this event.
But I am at the point where for me, personally this is concerning me and I may start making some plans to be ready if a worst case scenario happens.
That's not the right way to look at it - at least until the number of new cases stops rising for at least as long as it takes for people to die after contracting the disease.
I don't know the time line for this disease. But if it takes, say, 10 days for people to die, then we should be comparing that 200+ number of deaths with the infection level 10 days ago. In which case, the mortality rate is in the 10-20% range.
That number, in turn, may be high because the early deaths may have occurred before hospitals and doctors knew how to treat the disease.
Eventually the mortality rate will settle out.
They are now saying you can be contagious even before you are symptomatic. That complicates detection and prevention efforts.
May not be an airline that can get you there at this point.
I"m going to Puerto Vallarta next Friday. Starting to get very worried...
That raises another good question. Where wouldn't you travel? I'd be reluctant to visit a nation that didn't have what I perceived as a very good health system.I"m going to Puerto Vallarta next Friday. Starting to get very worried...
Heck, if there are more cases in the US, I might not want to travel to some states or cities.
I mean suppose you heard that there were several confirmed cases in Chicago (or New Orleans, or pick another city), would you travel there (assuming you had a no-fault way to get out of your plans)?
Even without confirmed cases, I'm not traveling to Puerto Rico.
I'm flying on Cathay Pacific and as of a couple hours ago, they weren't offering any refunds or waivers. Sucks as this trip has been planned since summer and it's one I should have done a long time ago
I"m going to ask DL if they can board the uncleansed who sit in coach from the back so they don't have to walk past me.
I think the mortality rate will be about the same as the regular flu, 1%, very young and old. I haven't seen any info out there on the age of these people who died so I could be very wrong. The transmission rate seems to be higher than the average flu. It might be because the infectious can go like 10 days spreading it without showing symptoms.
The odds of being cooped up for hours in a sealed container with a person infected with the coronavirus on this flight are near zero.
The trip back, on the other hand....
What would the mortality rate for regular flu be if we had no vaccines?
LOL the mortality rate for the flu is not 1% in the US, thank god or up to 260,000 people would be dead from it this season.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
I"m going to Puerto Vallarta next Friday. Starting to get very worried...
You'll be alright,... They have developed a cure for the Modelo virus...
If it makes you feel any better, per Cathay Pacific, HK appears to have imposed some flight restrictions from China.
Saturday 01 Feb 2020
I assume it's a good sign that the number of cured is catching up to the number of dead.
● China said there are now 11,791 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the country, plus 20 in Hong Kong and Macao and 10 in the self-governing island of Taiwan, with 259 people dead and 243 people cured.
● That’s a rise of more 2,000 in the number of infected people and 46 in the death toll from the previous day as Chinese hospitals struggle with shortages of medical equipment and beds. The virus has also reached 22 other countries.
● The United States has imposed unprecedented restrictions on travel to and from China, advising its citizens not to travel there and barring foreigners from entering the U.S. if they have been in China during the previous 14 days. A growing number of countries are taking similar action.
● The risks to the Chinese economy are growing, with many businesses across the country, including all Apple stores, set to remain closed for at least another week and consumers staying home and cutting spending.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...48f4c6-4471-11ea-99c7-1dfd4241a2fe_story.html
I assume it's a good sign that the number of cured is catching up to the number of dead.
● China said there are now 11,791 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the country, plus 20 in Hong Kong and Macao and 10 in the self-governing island of Taiwan, with 259 people dead and 243 people cured.
● That’s a rise of more 2,000 in the number of infected people and 46 in the death toll from the previous day as Chinese hospitals struggle with shortages of medical equipment and beds. The virus has also reached 22 other countries.
● The United States has imposed unprecedented restrictions on travel to and from China, advising its citizens not to travel there and barring foreigners from entering the U.S. if they have been in China during the previous 14 days. A growing number of countries are taking similar action.
● The risks to the Chinese economy are growing, with many businesses across the country, including all Apple stores, set to remain closed for at least another week and consumers staying home and cutting spending.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...48f4c6-4471-11ea-99c7-1dfd4241a2fe_story.html
I had a really nice time the last time I visited Puerto Rico. I'd love to go back and do a more "nature" visit instead of the "history" and "beach bum" visit I did last time.
