Why Florida’s cases are going up but deaths are dropping
- Thread starter hawkland14
- Start date
It's not a rallying cry. It is actually a point that has 100% relevancy unlike your post.
The Governor had a press conference late this afternoon. He did a good job with this, actually.
Testing has climbed to 30,000 per day, positives range from 5% in No Fla to a little over 7% in So Fla. naturally, more tests = more positives.
Some of the higher numbers downstate correlate to a recent effort to test the migrant worker population currently residing here and mostly in far west Palm Beach County, who have tested higher.
Those folks were on the verge of moving north to Georgia, So Car, etc. and the health departments of those states have been notified for tracking purposes.
Overwhelmingly the Florida mortalities are the 85+ group followed by the 65+ group.
Statewide the Governor indicated that hospitalization rates have declined by 43%.
Just wait 2 weeks.
Uh, yeah, but I don’t expect the increase in cases of one group to perfectly match the decrease in cases for another group. That seems unlikely.
Because the criteria weren't handed down on Mt Sinai.
There is no SOP for this, I think continual re-assessment and flexibility are going to be more important than rigidly adhering to a list that was essentially spit balled together at a meeting.
Statewide ER visits for COVID and flu like diseases are way down statewide since March.
Total number of cases is 100% of cases.
People under 50 years of age are X% of cases.
Therefore we know that people over 50 are =100%-X%
It’s actually a mathematical certainty. If, on any given day, 20% of the cases are people under 50, then 80% would be over 50. If, the next day, 30% of the cases are under 50, then 70% would have to be over 50.
So if Franklin county goes from 6 ER visits to 8 while Broward goes from 5000 to 4800, keep Franklin SHUT DOWN, amirite!
AGAIN! No one is calling for a shutdown. Talk about spreading fear propaganda.
If you're going to set criteria that contain certain targets to move to the next phase of reopening, follow those. Or, if you feel as though they are no longer valid, change them. But don't continually violate your own protocol.
I can’t help thinking you’re gonna have a head slapping realization any minute.
Graph this:
X% and 100%-X%
What do those lines add up no matter what?
100%
- Sep 13, 2002
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I’m a progressive and I basically agree that raw case numbers are not a great metric to use.
IF hospitalizations and deaths are trending downward, I think the continued cautious and phased reopening of the economy is warranted.
This isn’t an “either/or” thing or some game. A virus doesn’t give a shit about politics. The SIP and closures DID work- they allowed us to prevent overwhelming the healthcare systems and to fine tune our prevention strategies. While that fine tuning hasn’t been perfect everywhere, it is allowing for a gradual resumption of “normalcy” which is what we all want and need.
Nice post, be careful. You will be attacked. Enjoy your Applebees Torbee!! Don't forget to get your haircut.
- Sep 13, 2002
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I got a haircut. Had a few job interviews, so it was necessary. Landed an offer this week, so it must have worked!
I got a haircut. Had a few job interviews, so it was necessary. Landed an offer this week, so it must have worked!
Congrats on the job offer! Once this wave continues or the second wave begins and many on here will want to shut back down you will qualify for unemployment benefits!
Congratulations! With that assessment you are now qualified to run the CDC.
Overqualified, perhaps.
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I gotta admit, I have been enjoying the extra $600 each week. Got a bunch of new fishing gear. Doing my part to boost the economy!
Still unlikely to produce a mirror image over a significant length of time. I’ll look into the graph. I’m fully half-expecting to feel really dumb about this, no doubt.
FWIW I got an A in stats and I occasionally design infographics.
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Any and all. Been doing a lot of walleye fishing lately. But I also enjoy walking trout streams.
Good post.
The jury is still out on how effective SIP really was at preventing deaths though. Note that I didn't say it wasn't effective.
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Well it certainly helped keep the spread from going exponential, which eased the burden on hospitals. It seems that if hospitals can operate smoothly, death rates stay down. I know the U of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics has something like a 97 percent survival rate for Covid cases, which is fantastic. And in an article they said it was due in part to keeping case loads manageable.
The only mirror image is a 45% slope. Otherwise the lines go proportionally in opposite directions.
I agree. Jersey and New York needed to basically shut down. Iowa didn't officially shelter in place and we are coming out of this in good shape I would say. Although you wouldn't believe it by reading some posts on this board a month or so ago. By not SIP we should have been overrun with cases/deaths.
Give it two more weeks
Seminole is right - you're going to get this eventually and you're going to slap your forehead.
Consider the groups instead as "Group A" and "Not Group A". So "Under Age 50" and "Not Under Age 50". If 20% of the population is "Group A", then "Not Group A" absolutely must be 80% of the population. If 30% of the population is "Group A", then "Not Group A" absolutely must be 70% of the population. Whatever change in is made to "Group A" will force an exact opposite change in "Not Group A".
Not, if we had multiple ages group (Age 0-30, Age 31-60, Age 61 - up) then it would be wild to see two of the groups change exactly inversely together. But when there are only two groups, they have to change inversely.
"massive 30 day spike" is like only 1 week, and do you think people typically just drop dead once the get it? If this leads to increasing deaths, that's still at least 2 weeks away
And if nots two weeks away just wait another two weeks.
I looked at the graph again. The graph is telling me that as one group has an increase in cases, the other group has an exact inverse (decrease) in cases. Over a course of months, an exact mirroring. That seems weird.
So far nothing either you or Seminole has explained to me clarifies this phenomenon.
The way that I am reading this graph—which may be flat wrong—is that, for example, between Apr 1 and April 4, there was a ≈ 2% increase in one group, matched by a 2% decrease in the other group. And this exact mirroring happens throughout the entire measured period? This graph appears to be telling me that whenever one group has a increase, the other experiences an exact proportional decrease. So the graph is telling me that at no point throughout this period there was a concurrent increase (or decrease) in cases amongst both groups—this is how I'm reading this.
Either I am being really, really stupid, or the graph is stupid, or both.
LOL! You are really going to kick yourself when this sets in. I don't know how to more clearly explain it to you, but I'll try.
Let's say there is a jar with 100 marbles in it - some blue and some red. Each day there is a different number, of blue and a different number of red. But there are always 100 marbles. Now let's just count the blue marbles over four days:
Day 1 - 50
Day 2 - 40 (-10)
Day 3 - 20 (-20)
Day 4 - 60 (+40)
Note that we don't even have to count the red marbles to know how many are in the jar each day:
Day 1 - 50
Day 2 - 60 (+10)
Day 3 - 80 (+20)
Day 4 - 40 (-40)
See how when the blue marbles go up by a number, the red go down by the same number?
Now, back to the Over 50 / Under 50. Concentrate on this next sentence. The graph does not report number of cases, it represents percentage of cases. And so the Under 50 and Over 50 numbers will, every single day, add up to 100. So if the Under 50 goes down 10 points, the Over 50 has to go up 10 points.
of course cases are going up in Florida, we've actually been testing more now.
The number I am more interested in is hospitalization and deaths.
The number I am more interested in is hospitalization and deaths.
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This is coming from someone I consider one of the smartest on this board. C'mon Rudoph!!
Pretty much my thoughts also. The other thing is that they are getting better at treating people with major symptoms. If I were to get the virus today, I feel much better about my chance of surviving than I did 2 - 3 months ago. However, I am still trying to be cautious and not get it until they come up with a vaccine.
I'm pretty sure I understand the graph now, but I think the issue is that it is really such a disingenuous way to present this info that it actually is hard for me to believe they would, in any good faith at all, present the info this way. If that makes sense.
Yes but the most effective treatment so far which seems to halve the death date will be running out in two weeks.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/932448
They are going to start producing more but at $30k per pill so only the wealthy or those with great insurance will get it now.
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma...eks-expects-multi-year-commercial-opportunity
Go Mericuh?
One thing I have always lamented about HROT is the lack of math problems.
Thanks.
