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www.washingtonpost.com
Woodward details some of the stunning intelligence capabilities that allowed Washington to foresee Russian plans for an all-out war against Ukraine in early 2022, including a human source inside the Kremlin.
This insight, however, got the Biden administration only so far as it sought to foreclose Russia's nuclear option. In the fall of 2022, that option seemed like a live one, as U.S. intelligence agencies reported that Putin was seriously weighing use of a tactical nuclear weapon — at one point, assessing the likelihood at 50 percent.
An especially frantic quest to bring Moscow back from the brink came in October of that year, when Russia appeared to be laying the groundwork for escalation by accusing Ukraine of preparing to detonate a dirty bomb. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin flatly denied Russia's accusations in a phone call with the Kremlin's defense minister, Sergei Shoigu. Jake Sullivan, Biden's national security adviser, instructed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's team to summon the International Atomic Energy Agency to absolve themselves immediately. And Biden called out Russia's apparent scheme publicly while privately leaning on Chinese President Xi Jinping to emphasize to Putin the dire consequences of nuclear use.