Yes, I Realize She Has No Chance, But Seriously, How is Caitlin NOT the Most Valuable Player?

[spiderland]

Seriously. Of course A’ja is going to win. That was announced as having already been decided by every single talking head before any games were even played this year. And she’s backed it up with a record-setting season. Hard to argue against based on her individual performance.

But come on. This Fever team is battling LA for the number one draft pick yet again without Caitlin. Or maybe they “win” that coveted prize going away. We’re talking a delta here of at least 14 games, maybe more. 6 seed vs. dead last.

Where are the Aces without A’ja? A 5 seed instead of a 4?

I suppose they end up winning it all and then everyone can feel validated. But damn, don’t sleep on the Lynx. Collier, if not quite the same caliber as A’ja, is damn close, their bench is MUCH deeper, and a finals matchup would have home court situated in Minneapolis.

Empty MVP without them winning it all, IMO. And that in and of itself will be a tall task. Oh well, I get how this sh!t works and that MVP doesn’t necessarily mean what it implies.

End rant.

 

[Chuck C]

And this point, I think it would be BS if she’s not 1st team all WNBA. Top 10 in scoring and 1st in assists ( which has never been done in the history of the WNBA).

 

[Hawksfor3]

Where are the Aces without A’ja? A 5 seed instead of a 4?

Where are the Fever without Clark? Probably not sniffing the playoffs. The day that CC can dominate Wilson in the stat column following a game, then preconceptions about MVP go out the window (hopefully). I agree with Chuck C. She should be first team All WNBA.

 

[spiderland]

And this point, I think it would be BS if she’s not 1st team all WNBA. Top 10 in scoring and 1st in assists ( which has never been done in the history of the WNBA).

She has a puncher’s chance to finish as high as 4th in total points, although realistically I suspect she’ll finish 6th (behind A’ja, Arike, Copper, teammate Kelsey, and Stewart). Jewell could possibly catch her as well. So anywhere from 4-7.

It should be a no brainer; however, this would then beg the question “even prior to the injury, was Angel really in any serious contention for 1st Team All WNBA?” Puts some folks in a rather uncomfortable position. Provides them an opportunity to reclaim some credibility as well, though. Let’s see which path they choose.

 

[ROCKY MOUNTAIN HAWK]

Seriously. Of course A’ja is going to win. That was announced as having already been decided by every single talking head before any games were even played this year. And she’s backed it up with a record-setting season. Hard to argue against based on her individual performance.

But come on. This Fever team is battling LA for the number one draft pick yet again without Caitlin. Or maybe they “win” that coveted prize going away. We’re talking a delta here of at least 14 games, maybe more. 6 seed vs. dead last.

Where are the Aces without A’ja? A 5 seed instead of a 4?

I suppose they end up winning it all and then everyone can feel validated. But damn, don’t sleep on the Lynx. Collier, if not quite the same caliber as A’ja, is damn close, their bench is MUCH deeper, and a finals matchup would have home court situated in Minneapolis.

Empty MVP without them winning it all, IMO. And that in and of itself will be a tall task. Oh well, I get how this sh!t works and that MVP doesn’t necessarily mean what it implies.

End rant.

Caitlin’s no doubt the MVP.

But they’ll give it to Wilson.

 

[BGHAWK]

Caitlin would have a better case to make if she averaged 2 TOs per game.

 

[Hawksfor3]

All-WNBA First Team (consensus)​

A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces
Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx
Breanna Stewart, New York Liberty
Alyssa Thomas, Connecticut Sun
Sabrina Ionescu, New York Liberty

Clark is the consensus first pick on the Second Team per ESPN. This is from August 27, so it's pretty current.
After checking the WNBA's site, as of September 7, they have Wilson and Collier as their top 2, Lonescu at 3, and, Stewart and Thomas filling 4 and 5 respectively.
Clark and Kahleah Copper have received Honorable Mentions, but "...could play themselves further into the MVP race."
So, at this stage, the top 5 are firm. Interesting that Clark and Copper still have a possibility of cracking the top 5. Or just rhetoric?

 

[spiderland]

Caitlin would have a better case to make if she averaged 2 TOs per game.

People really need to get over the TO thing. I can make a pretty solid hypothetical argument that if Caitlin is averaging 2 TOs a game the Fever aren’t even a playoff team.

 

[Tenacious E]

Collier, if not quite the same caliber as A’ja

I would say A'ja is not the same caliber as Collier, if you're picking up what I'm laying down.

 

[Tenacious E]

People really need to get over the TO thing. I can make a pretty solid hypothetical argument that if Caitlin is averaging 2 TOs a game the Fever aren’t even a playoff team.

Can't say it much better than Colin Cowherd did.

 

[Hawksfor3]

Can't say it much better than Colin Cowherd did.

View embedded media

And they can fly now.

 

[HawkAlum2002]

Caitlin broke the league record for assists and turnovers. Aja broke the league record for points and, with three next game, rebounds (I hope she plays just so Reese doesn't have that record, at least this year). And the Aces are the only team to beat the Fever every game, largely one sided. It's not really a contest for MVP race. 1st team all-WNBA, Clark certainly should be in the conversation. If Caitlin shot just a bit better from three, she would've had the most 3s in a season too, but unfortunately she will fall just short and was more a product of volume taken than being a great shooter this year. Hopefully next year she avoids the slow start and shatters that record too. With a full offseason that is an attainable goal. Add in that the team has proven they can beat everyone but Vegas and the schedule can't possibly be as front loaded before they even had time to gel, so the Fever should get to maybe 24-16 barring injuries. Then you are talking MVP.

 

[WDSMHAWK]

Seriously. Of course A’ja is going to win. That was announced as having already been decided by every single talking head before any games were even played this year. And she’s backed it up with a record-setting season. Hard to argue against based on her individual performance.

But come on. This Fever team is battling LA for the number one draft pick yet again without Caitlin. Or maybe they “win” that coveted prize going away. We’re talking a delta here of at least 14 games, maybe more. 6 seed vs. dead last.

Where are the Aces without A’ja? A 5 seed instead of a 4?

Caitlin should be Top 5 minimum maybe even Top 3 in the MVP voting but I think you're over estimating how good the Aces would be without Wilson. She covered up a lot of holes for them when Gray was injured and if you swapped her out for an average or even above average big I think it's costing the Aces 10 wins.

Any other year Caitlin would have a real good argument for MVP but A’ja is putting prime Shaq numbers this season.

 

[Tenacious E]

Caitlin broke the league record for assists and turnovers. Aja broke the league record for points and, with three next game, rebounds (I hope she plays just so Reese doesn't have that record, at least this year). And the Aces are the only team to beat the Fever every game, largely one sided. It's not really a contest for MVP race. 1st team all-WNBA, Clark certainly should be in the conversation. If Caitlin shot just a bit better from three, she would've had the most 3s in a season too, but unfortunately she will fall just short and was more a product of volume taken than being a great shooter this year. Hopefully next year she avoids the slow start and shatters that record too. With a full offseason that is an attainable goal. Add in that the team has proven they can beat everyone but Vegas and the schedule can't possibly be as front loaded before they even had time to gel, so the Fever should get to maybe 24-16 barring injuries. Then you are talking MVP.

I’m not necessarily saying Wilson shouldn’t win, but it is silly to me, to cite the aces winning the games against the fever as a reason she is mvp. Their team is deeper and better. A chef can only make so much chicken salad out of chicken shit.

 

[Georgia_Hawk]

I dunno, when I watch the Aces, I get the impresssion that they would have a HJGE dropoff without Wilson. Not as much as the Fever without CC, but I would have no problem with Wilson wining the MVP.

 

[spiderland]

Caitlin should be Top 5 minimum maybe even Top 3 in the MVP voting but I think you're over estimating how good the Aces would be without Wilson. She covered up a lot of holes for them when Gray was injured and if you swapped her out for an average or even above average big I think it's costing the Aces 10 wins.

Any other year Caitlin would have a real good argument for MVP but A’ja is putting prime Shaq numbers this season.

Okay, so they finish a 6 instead of a 4. I stand corrected. Fever still finish dead last without Caitlin. To me, that’s a bigger delta, particularly given the supporting cast.

But yeah, I get it—the award goes to the best player, and it’s pretty tough to argue that A’ja isn’t the best (certainly the most accomplished and seasoned) in the game right now. And yeah, without her, the Aces are not a legitimate contender; with her they are. But ask yourself: would the Fever be a championship contender with A’ja but without Caitlin? Would the Aces be a contender with Caitlin but no A’ja?

 

[BGHAWK]

People really need to get over the TO thing. I can make a pretty solid hypothetical argument that if Caitlin is averaging 2 TOs a game the Fever aren’t even a playoff team.

Feel free to get over it, but she makes too many piss poor percentage passes. Hypothetical argument, lol.

 

[spiderland]

Feel free to get over it, but she makes too many piss poor percentage passes. Hypothetical argument, lol.

Whatever. I’ll take the Caitlin Clark who makes piss poor percentage passes and is going to end up averaging double-digit assists more seasons than not in the W. You can have the one who averages 2.0 TO per game.

 

[AWS1022]

Feel free to get over it, but she makes too many piss poor percentage passes. Hypothetical argument, lol.

The big question is how many turnovers would other players have if they were full court pressed the entire game, grabbed and mugged on almost every play, and handled the ball 95% of the game? I would say every player in the league would have more turnovers than Clark has. But no one has ever seen this before Clark, so her having the record is comparing apples to oranges.

 

[ROCKY MOUNTAIN HAWK]

All-WNBA First Team (consensus)​

A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces
Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx
Breanna Stewart, New York Liberty
Alyssa Thomas, Connecticut Sun
Sabrina Ionescu, New York Liberty

Clark is the consensus first pick on the Second Team per ESPN. This is from August 27, so it's pretty current.
After checking the WNBA's site, as of September 7, they have Wilson and Collier as their top 2, Lonescu at 3, and, Stewart and Thomas filling 4 and 5 respectively.
Clark and Kahleah Copper have received Honorable Mentions, but "...could play themselves further into the MVP race."
So, at this stage, the top 5 are firm. Interesting that Clark and Copper still have a possibility of cracking the top 5. Or just rhetoric?

Trying to find a better player than Clark on that list.

Can’t

 

[Hawksfor3]

All awards last year were announced in September and October. Due to the Olympics, this year's awards will be announced later than usual.

 

[ChiPackHawk]

The big question is how many turnovers would other players have if they were full court pressed the entire game, grabbed and mugged on almost every play, and handled the ball 95% of the game? I would say every player in the league would have more turnovers than Clark has. But no one has ever seen this before Clark, so her having the record is comparing apples to oranges.

Very fair comments and argument - but she absolutely forces the ball at times and needs to get better at that. I have no doubt she will. Possessions matter.

 

[BGHAWK]

Whatever. I’ll take the Caitlin Clark who makes piss poor percentage passes and is going to end up averaging double-digit assists more seasons than not in the W. You can have the one who averages 2.0 TO per game.

Actually those passes are because of poor decisions, and that can and should be corrected.

 

[pablow]

Actually those passes are because of poor decisions, and that can and should be corrected.

Caitlin throws to spots. She is anticipating that her teammate will be open and in scoring position. It's intuitive. Turnovers come with that gift. I think what you are expecting is not on the menu.

Now, if you want CC to stop dribbling off her foot. That doable and would not interfer with a super-power.

 

[AMAYS]

It will be interesting to see in future years how advanced stats might impact CC's MVP chances. Based on her college days, I have long thought that there is a bias in certain advanced value stats against guards, and that turnovers negatively impact certain advanced value stats more than they should (turnovers should be a negative, the question is how much). Win Shares* seems like the worst of the advanced value stats for guard play. An example of this guard/turnover bias is Aliyah Boston having a much better Win Shares rank this season than CC. Boston is # 12 in the league in Win Shares, Clark is # 22. That seems way too low for Clark.

*Win Shares, an advanced statistic that approximates the total number of wins a player produces for their team through their play on the offensive and defensive ends of the court. (Also, by definition, there are more Win Shares to allocate to players on teams that win more.)

I fear that Win Shares may act as a drag on CC's future MVP chances (even if the Fever can win more games so there are more Win Shares to allocate). Of the past 27 MVP winners, 20 ranked 1st or 2nd in Win Shares, 5 ranked 3rd or 4th, 1 ranked 5th, and 1 ranked 8th (Tina Charles in 2012). At least for this year, CC's Win Shares rank does not get her anywhere close to being MVP.

Clark fares much better in one of the other advanced value stats, PER*Minutes^, which perhaps highlights some flaws in Win Shares.

^PER*Minutes, an estimate of the total value created by a player in their minutes played with their per minute value estimated via PER#.
#PER-player efficiency rating, an advanced statistic to estimate the per minute value of a player from box score stats.

Clark's Per*Minutes rank this year is 5th. That puts her right on the edge of historical MVP territory. 19 former MVP winners ranked either 1st or 2nd in Per*Minutes, while 5 ranked 3rd, and 3 ranked 4th.

 

[EagleHawk]

Caitlin would have a better case to make if she averaged 2 TOs per game.

The Fever as a team have the same number of TOs this year with one game to go as they did last year, but they also have 60 more assists. Their team A/TO ratio went from 1.21 to 1.32 this season.

 

[spiderland]

Caitlin throws to spots. She is anticipating that her teammate will be open and in scoring position. It's intuitive. Turnovers come with that gift. I think what you are expecting is not on the menu.

Now, if you want CC to stop dribbling off her foot. That doable and would not interfer with a super-power.

This. And while I agree with you regarding the dribbling off the foot issue, I’m also willing to allow a little grace there as well. Why? Because every second that Caitlin has the ball in her hands, no matter where she is on the court, she’s in attack mode. She’s looking for where at that moment (or anticipating in the next moment) the scoring opportunity is or will be. That’s exactly how I want her. And while I agree these “sloppy” TOs ideally would be cleaned up, I also think it’s reasonable to expect that some times where she’s so focused on the rest of the floor, she’ll end up mishandling the dribble or get her pocket picked. Particularly when she plays fatigued (or frustrated with herself). It happens.

The TOs to me are just so way overblown. Look, the great Sue Bird had a career A/TO ratio of 2.3. Vandersloot leads all W players in the top 50 in assists at 2.5. Magic Johnson’s was 2.9. Caitlin is going to end up in the neighborhood of 400+ assists each year, probably as early as next season. That translates into about 137-174+ TOs per year at elite A/TO ratios like those. Every one of those numbers would have broken the previous single season TO record in the W. Caitlin is going to turn the ball over. She is going to lead the league in TOs EVERY year, at least until someone else comes along who is anywhere close to her in terms of fearlessness and skill level. That’s why I say people need to get over it. Not that she can’t work to clean some things up; it’s that it’s just focusing on the wrong thing, IMO.

Virtually every one of Caitlin’s “OMG how did she do that” assists was a piss poor percentage pass. So we need her to keep making the poor percentage passes that are converted, but stop the ones that are turned over? Please.

 

[BGHAWK]

Caitlin throws to spots. She is anticipating that her teammate will be open and in scoring position. It's intuitive. Turnovers come with that gift. I think what you are expecting is not on the menu.

Now, if you want CC to stop dribbling off her foot. That doable and would not interfer with a super-power.

I would like for her not to try bounce passes in the lanes between defenders legs, and not get stripped one on one as well.

 

[AWS1022]

Very fair comments and argument - but she absolutely forces the ball at times and needs to get better at that. I have no doubt she will. Possessions matter.

She does, but so does every other player in the league. And possessions don’t matter like they do in football. You can overcome two or three points at a time.

 

[Bro D]

People.. Can we please kick the ancient stat of A/TO ratio to the street? Pretty please? It's about as useful as a football bat

 

[spiderland]

People.. Can we please kick the ancient stat of A/TO ratio to the street? Pretty please? It's about as useful as a football bat

I only use it to help frame what should be reasonable expectations. For example, in the W, of the Top 50 players in all time assists, the 25th percentile for A/TO is 1.45 and 75th is 2.00. So based on 27 years of data, a top women’s player in assists is probably going to land somewhere between 1.5 and 2.0. For the NBA’s Top 50 all time, the ratios are higher, so the common range there among men is 2.3-3.0. I don’t suggest there’s any merit in using it as a comparative (i.e., Player X with an A/TO of 2.2 is better than Player Y with an A/TO of 1.8).

This is only to point out that anyone expecting Caitlin to dish out 10 assists while only committing 2 TOs is calling for a unicorn. Then again, she is kind of a unicorn I guess.

 

[Hawksfor3]

I only use it to help frame what should be reasonable expectations. For example, in the W, of the Top 50 players in all time assists, the 25th percentile for A/TO is 1.45 and 75th is 2.00. So based on 27 years of data, a top women’s player in assists is probably going to land somewhere between 1.5 and 2.0. For the NBA’s Top 50 all time, the ratios are higher, so the common range there among men is 2.3-3.0. I don’t suggest there’s any merit in using it as a comparative (i.e., Player X with an A/TO of 2.2 is better than Player Y with an A/TO of 1.8).

This is only to point out that anyone expecting Caitlin to dish out 10 assists while only committing 2 TOs is calling for a unicorn. Then again, she is kind of a unicorn I guess.

Hate to beat this dead horse again, but the dropped passes, etc. That assist number would a whole bunch better.

 

[kceasthawk]

This. And while I agree with you regarding the dribbling off the foot issue, I’m also willing to allow a little grace there as well. Why? Because every second that Caitlin has the ball in her hands, no matter where she is on the court, she’s in attack mode. She’s looking for where at that moment (or anticipating in the next moment) the scoring opportunity is or will be. That’s exactly how I want her. And while I agree these “sloppy” TOs ideally would be cleaned up, I also think it’s reasonable to expect that some times where she’s so focused on the rest of the floor, she’ll end up mishandling the dribble or get her pocket picked. Particularly when she plays fatigued (or frustrated with herself). It happens.

The TOs to me are just so way overblown. Look, the great Sue Bird had a career A/TO ratio of 2.3. Vandersloot leads all W players in the top 50 in assists at 2.5. Magic Johnson’s was 2.9. Caitlin is going to end up in the neighborhood of 400+ assists each year, probably as early as next season. That translates into about 137-174+ TOs per year at elite A/TO ratios like those. Every one of those numbers would have broken the previous single season TO record in the W. Caitlin is going to turn the ball over. She is going to lead the league in TOs EVERY year, at least until someone else comes along who is anywhere close to her in terms of fearlessness and skill level. That’s why I say people need to get over it. Not that she can’t work to clean some things up; it’s that it’s just focusing on the wrong thing, IMO.

Virtually every one of Caitlin’s “OMG how did she do that” assists was a piss poor percentage pass. So we need her to keep making the poor percentage passes that are converted, but stop the ones that are turned over? Please.

Preaching to the choir here spider. Been saying that for some time. Even a lot of the talking heads are coming around to that now....

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Seriously. Of course A’ja is going to win. That was announced as having already been decided by every single talking head before any games were even played this year. And she’s backed it up with a record-setting season. Hard to argue against based on her individual performance.

But come on. This Fever team is battling LA for the number one draft pick yet again without Caitlin. Or maybe they “win” that coveted prize going away. We’re talking a delta here of at least 14 games, maybe more. 6 seed vs. dead last.

Where are the Aces without A’ja? A 5 seed instead of a 4?

I suppose they end up winning it all and then everyone can feel validated. But damn, don’t sleep on the Lynx. Collier, if not quite the same caliber as A’ja, is damn close, their bench is MUCH deeper, and a finals matchup would have home court situated in Minneapolis.

Empty MVP without them winning it all, IMO. And that in and of itself will be a tall task. Oh well, I get how this sh!t works and that MVP doesn’t necessarily mean what it implies.

End rant.

Not true ... Fever were on an upturn ... even without Caitlin. However, Caitlin helped elevate them even more ... and faster.

A'ja is not only on a better team ... she's not only a pivotal player on that team ... but she's also the top scorer in the league, she's one of the best rebounders in the league, AND she's one of the best defenders in the league.

In all frankness, it would be a grave travesty if A'ja doesn't win it. Caitlin is obviously a tremendous player ... and is already impressing despite being a rookie. Also, quite obviously, Caitlin has done a tremendous job of shining a bright and positive light on the women's game. However, in terms of winning the league MVP ... Caitlin is not yet in the same stratosphere as A'ja ... not yet, at least.

I'm excited about Caitlin's future in the WNBA ... and I sincerely hope that she ends up being the GOAT ... but she's not there yet.

 

[ROCKY MOUNTAIN HAWK]

Not true ... Fever were on an upturn ... even without Caitlin. However, Caitlin helped elevate them even more ... and faster.

A'ja is not only on a better team ... she's not only a pivotal player on that team ... but she's also the top scorer in the league, she's one of the best rebounders in the league, AND she's one of the best defenders in the league.

In all frankness, it would be a grave travesty if A'ja doesn't win it. Caitlin is obviously a tremendous player ... and is already impressing despite being a rookie. Also, quite obviously, Caitlin has done a tremendous job of shining a bright and positive light on the women's game. However, in terms of winning the league MVP ... Caitlin is not yet in the same stratosphere as A'ja ... not yet, at least.

I'm excited about Caitlin's future in the WNBA ... and I sincerely hope that she ends up being the GOAT ... but she's not there yet.

Oh, she’s more than in the same stratosphere as Wilson.

 

[kceasthawk]

Not true ... Fever were on an upturn ... even without Caitlin. However, Caitlin helped elevate them even more ... and faster.

A'ja is not only on a better team ... she's not only a pivotal player on that team ... but she's also the top scorer in the league, she's one of the best rebounders in the league, AND she's one of the best defenders in the league.

In all frankness, it would be a grave travesty if A'ja doesn't win it. Caitlin is obviously a tremendous player ... and is already impressing despite being a rookie. Also, quite obviously, Caitlin has done a tremendous job of shining a bright and positive light on the women's game. However, in terms of winning the league MVP ... Caitlin is not yet in the same stratosphere as A'ja ... not yet, at least.

I'm excited about Caitlin's future in the WNBA ... and I sincerely hope that she ends up being the GOAT ... but she's not there yet.

While I'd agree that Aja should and will win the MVP, I'd disagree that CC22 is "not in the same stratosphere. The fact is her pace of play and ability to spread the floor out for her team mates is unlike anything this league has seen before. In truth its REALLY hard to measure her impact on games because even those who have been around the game so long are just now starting to come to grips with how her ability to open up the floor, (both as a shooter, and facilitator) has changed the entire dynamic of how teams defend. Honestly if the Fever had another decent big, (more consistent then Smith on both ends of the floor) and another reliable shooter, (which KLS was supposed to be), they'd probably be one of the top three teams right now! When your talking about true impact on her team in games I'd go Wilson, Collier, and Clark, and the gap isn't as big as some people might think.

 

[HawkMachine]

Where are the Aces without A’ja? A 5 seed instead of a 4?

No way.

More like 9.

 

[AWS1022]

No way.

More like 9.

With three Olympians? Come on.

 

[ICWestfan]

People.. Can we please kick the ancient stat of A/TO ratio to the street? Pretty please? It's about as useful as a football bat

No.

Signed,
Conner Mccaffrey

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

Seriously. Of course A’ja is going to win. That was announced as having already been decided by every single talking head before any games were even played this year. And she’s backed it up with a record-setting season. Hard to argue against based on her individual performance.

But come on. This Fever team is battling LA for the number one draft pick yet again without Caitlin. Or maybe they “win” that coveted prize going away. We’re talking a delta here of at least 14 games, maybe more. 6 seed vs. dead last.

Where are the Aces without A’ja? A 5 seed instead of a 4?

I suppose they end up winning it all and then everyone can feel validated. But damn, don’t sleep on the Lynx. Collier, if not quite the same caliber as A’ja, is damn close, their bench is MUCH deeper, and a finals matchup would have home court situated in Minneapolis.

Empty MVP without them winning it all, IMO. And that in and of itself will be a tall task. Oh well, I get how this sh!t works and that MVP doesn’t necessarily mean what it implies.

End rant.

I love Clark! Have been watching her for years and am so impressed. That said she’s not MVP material just yet based on her performance against all others. She killed it this year but still needs to work on her turnover ratio and her shooting percentages, especially from long distance. At Iowa she had other sharpshooters who could pick the Hawks up when Clark’s shots weren’t falling; she doesn’t have that in the WNBA. If she wants to be MVP she needs to get a little better, which I trust she will. Love her!!!