Yet another stock market thread - time line if this is a true crash

[bunsen82]

Personal guess is Musk is getting very frustrated. Add in his personal net worth loss, this has not been a good couple months for Musk.

As to the general economy, nothing has really happened, even when taking the tariffs into consideration lots of companies planned ahead by getting their product in now. The issue is if you have a cooling effect in the future if the tariffs are not a a negotion tool, which Trump seems to be changing his philosophy on. It seems they are now thinking they can use tariffs to offset their new tax bill. I am not saying Trump was dealt a good hand. His issue is he took a bad hand, lit it on fire and is trying to pick up the ashes. The government and decrease in government spending will be a hit to the economy. It is hard for me to figure out how many jobs have been lost or how much spending has been cut that will effect the economy. Those are big world numbers beyond my comprehension abilities. I don't see how they don't loosen up the monetary system though, either through lower interest rates and or more money flowing. I think the Nasdaq has a bit more to fall, but those are the major growth areas of the economy as well and they have already taken a significant haircut - nasdaq more than 15%, many of the high fliers more than 50%.

 

[runkpanole]

You caused the mess by not adding any value to society.

We’re just glad you mom adds something to society as we add things to her.

 

[WadeLookingbill]

A huge wild card right now is how long will Musk hang around doing the DOGE thing. I'd be surprised if he's still involved by the end of this year, and that would be a nice thing for the markets if he moves along.

Obviously current market sentiment has most retail traders wayyyyy out, and other big money/market makers sitting on the sidelines (e.g. Buffett). But, pair the tariff wars ending, along with Musk going back to focus on Tesla's recovery/Mars/having more kids/his favorite flavor of Skittles, and there will be some bigly green candles on the way back up. I think we have another ~15% to go down though in the meantime. Puts are certainly paying (particularly on DJT!).

 

[desihawk]

The dumbass is crashing the stock market with his bullshit. That 90 day review is going to be pretty damning.

how significant is a crashing stock market (which at this point has only given up about the last 3 months of gains i believe)?
i'm asking coz when the stock market soars i've seen a lot of posts indicating that stock market gains only line the pockets of the top 5% so soaring stocks are a sign of growing wealth inequality that will lead to social instability.
this post isn't a criticism at all, more of an observation

 

[Colonoscopy]

My big question is how much of this might be the long talked about correction we seemed to have coming.

I was weary before Trump...

Post covid era market weirds me out. Was covid a reset or not?

 

[TarponSpringsNole]

You caused the mess by not adding any value to society.

Whatever you say jizz guzzler.

 

[jasonrann]

How, by spending even more money we don't have?

No.

That said, as opposed to how well things are going now?

 

[HawkeyeHitman]

Whatever you say jizz guzzler.

I can’t wait for the day that mentally ill freaks like you are locked up for good.

 

[TarponSpringsNole]

I can’t wait for the day that mentally ill freaks like you are locked up for good.

Jizz guzzler made a funny. 😘😘

 

[alaskanseminole]

What would he do that would lead to a rebound? You think he’ll be less erratic? His trade war could theoretically crash the world economy.

Didn't you know that America works better as a 100% isolated island? 100 ft walls north and south with missile defense on each coast as well as Star Wars-type satellite defenses, zero trade with anyone, bringing back all jobs to America and withdrawal from all overseas bases. Once all that is done, I suspect we'll have zero internet or phone connectivity to the outside world similar to North Korea.

I'm all in! Aren't you!?

 

[drew_hawk]

Jizz guzzler made a funny. 😘😘

 

[Bulldogs1974]

How, by spending even more money we don't have?

um, i can hear you over that vacuum sucking up money and sending it to billionaires, you call tax cuts.

 

[tarheelbybirth]

If I had a conspiracy theory, Trump is forcing an accelerated selloff to create a buying opportunity, and is interested in a quick buck on the rebound.

Not a conspiracy theory...the fabulously wealthy love recessions when they can grab investments at fire sale prices.

 

[RollingBallofButcherKnives]

Jizz guzzler made a funny. 😘😘

Well, he attempted to…

 

[RollingBallofButcherKnives]

I can’t wait for the day that mentally ill freaks like you are locked up for good.

Why you so mad all the time?

 

[LunchBox50]

While the libs are losing their asses in the market, the patriots will be just fine.

 

[Herky T Hawk]

Remember back during every previous election year for the past several decades when the incumbent either defended their economic record or the challenger attacked their economic record, and then someone would always say that the president doesn't have much effect on the economy?

Trump keeps proving people wrong every day. (that's not a good thing for you MAGAs)

 

[Tenacious E]

Remember back during every previous election year for the past several decades when the incumbent either defended their economic record or the challenger attacked their economic record, and then someone would always say that the president doesn't have much effect on the economy?

Trump keeps proving people wrong every day. (that's not a good thing for you MAGAs)

Well, I think the conventional wisdom is that the president cannot do much to help the economy, but he or she can sure hurt it.

 

[torbee]

While the libs are losing their asses in the market, the patriots will be just fine.

Government by infomercial.

That seems sustainable.

 

[ThorneStockton]

Well, I think the conventional wisdom is that the president cannot do much to help the economy, but he or she can sure hurt it.

I think the conventional wisdom was that presidents have limited practical powers with respect to directing the economy: the Fed sets monetary policy, Congress controls fiscal policy, and we're predominately a capitalistic society of private commerce.

The president has always had powerful tariff powers, but it was never considered a practical lever to pull because free trade has been a broadly bipartisan belief for years and no one would anticipate a lunatic president playing with tariffs like a faucet, and if they did, they'd be restrained, unless they turned their party into a cult.

Which would end up being just a really long caveat to the conventional wisdom.

 

[LunchBox50]

Government by infomercial.

That seems sustainable.

This guy was supposed to be the attorney general.

 

[WadeLookingbill]

While the libs are losing their asses in the market, the patriots will be just fine.

But WAIT, there's more!

 

[Tenacious E]

I think the conventional wisdom was that presidents have limited practical powers with respect to directing the economy: the Fed sets monetary policy, Congress controls fiscal policy, and we're predominately a capitalistic society of private commerce.

The president has always had powerful tariff powers, but it was never considered a practical lever to pull because free trade has been a broadly bipartisan belief for years and no one would anticipate a lunatic president playing with tariffs like a faucet, and if they did, they'd be restrained, unless they turned their party into a cult.

Which would end up being just a really long caveat to the conventional wisdom.

Yes, I do believe that is what I just said but at a higher summary level.

 

[hawkeyetraveler]

Because this fall is happening 3x faster, counting today so far. 2007 was a collapse of the banking system. Took longer to restructure and rebound. 2021 into 2022 was covid/supply chain related, but it was a year or two in the making. This is precipitated by rash behavior which can be undone. If we go back to the status quo of 2/1/25, I think the markets would snap back pretty quickly, relatively speaking.

Well the markets have to price in a penalty for Donald’s u predictability, so it seems unlikely it gets back to where it was pre-inauguration anytime soon. Even if he undoes all the tariffs we would still have the threat he loses his shit and tariffs some country when they offend him next.

 

[Hawk_82]

I do think Trump is ok with a stock market correction. I haven't decided if Trump wants it to happen or if he is just going to use it to his advantage, but he is well of aware of what is coming.

Here are a couple things I expect to happen
1. Market correction
2. Interest rates go down. 9.2 trillion of the national debt needs refinanced this year (A recession which causes interest rates to drop significantly may be the best thing for our national debt.)
3. With tariffs in place and interest rates low, business will be ready to boom
4. The market needs to be up and running before the midterms otherwise republicans stand to lose a lot in the elections.

Trump may cut federal income taxes and social security taxes at the bottom of the recession to help bring us out of it quicker. This would be an indirect way of injecting cash into the hands of Americans without a stimulus.

 

[ThorneStockton]

I do think Trump is ok with a stock market correction. I haven't decided if Trump wants it to happen or if he is just going to use it to his advantage, but he is well of aware of what is coming.

Here are a couple things I expect to happen
1. Market correction
2. Interest rates go down. 9.2 trillion of the national debt needs refinanced this year (A recession which causes interest rates to drop significantly may be the best thing for our national debt.)
3. With tariffs in place and interest rates low, business will be ready to boom
4. The market needs to be up and running before the midterms otherwise republicans stand to lose a lot in the elections.

Those are great points! Makes you wonder why he didn't campaign on triggering a recession since it will be so beneficial? Either way, he's well aware of everything.

 

[Hawk_82]

Those are great points! Makes you wonder why he didn't campaign on triggering a recession since it will be so beneficial? Either way, he's well aware of everything.

Half of republicans already thought a recession was coming anyway. This is not all on Trump though.

I'm assuming you will think this is all on trump, but are you willing to give trump all the credit when things come back even better in a year or so?

 

[bunsen82]

The issue was we were at high overall valuations, the PE's were a little high but thats because it was forecasting sky high growth for some companies. So when growth gets slashed for a company like TSLA the price gets axed. I am still trying to decide when to go long on MSTR again. I still think the cryptocurrencies will take off this year as an alternate investment vehicle that is not tied to the economy. At the same time I do think we will have a swift down trend that will continue in the markets for the next week or two. Top to bottom I think we will have a swift 25% decrease in the nasdaq. With electronic trading, I think they have figured out how to avoid the triggers to stop the market trading, while cashing out as much and as quickly as possible. I still think Bitcoin will get down to 72k. We either have a bit of a reprieve here and the market takes a breath, or we continue the next leg down pretty quickly where we can potential find some solid footing.

Honestly I think Trump thinks he is smarter than he is (primarily because you had people stop him from doing the most ridiculous things). Right now I think this Canada issue, has the potential to be a massive fire keg. As long as we can avoid that stupidity in the next 18 months, I think the rest can be reversed or congress can put in enough guardrails in 2027 to put him in lame duck status.

 

[LunchBox50]

Economy is tanking, but thankfully, we have an administration in charge that is focused on the serious issues of the day.

 

[ThorneStockton]

Half of republicans already thought a recession was coming anyway. This is not all on Trump though.

I'm assuming you will think this is all on trump, but are you willing to give trump all the credit when things come back even better in a year or so?

When you say "this is all on Trump" I'm assuming you're referring to the recent stock market declines?

I'd say it's primarily on Trump's on/off/on/off tariff strategy. That seems to be the conventional wisdom from market watchers, although undoubtedly there's other contributing market forces at work as there always are.

Am I willing to give Trump all the credit if the market recovers and exceeds the pre-crash levels? Of course not. It's possible some of his actions will deserve some credit - who knows what they may be? - but all the credit? Come on, what are you a cultist?

The stock market will recover based on things like corporate profits and innovation, macro economic environment, a president (Biden, Trump, whoever) can usually only influence indirectly.

I would retract much of the blame if he would commit to quit the tariff nonsense where he treats it like a faucet. Undoing the damage is probably deserving of credit to a cultist but not to normal people.

 

[LunchBox50]

Half of republicans already thought a recession was coming anyway. This is not all on Trump though.

I'm assuming you will think this is all on trump, but are you willing to give trump all the credit when things come back even better in a year or so?

Trump took all kinds of credit for the market rising during election season and after he was elected while Biden was still in office, so why wouldn't he get the credit for it cratering with him in office?

 

[Joes Place]

Half of republicans already thought a recession was coming anyway. This is not all on Trump though.

The data sure looks like it is, though, buddy

 

[LunchBox50]

 

[HawkMachine]

I've been telling all you scrubs the market was going to drop.

I went 100% cash on 2/6.

 

[Hawk_82]

View embedded media

Is our economy really that fragile that 1 man can bring down the USA in 1 month? That seems equally impossible.

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. The Biden economy was not as good as he claimed and there were a lot of cracks in the system. Trump has destabilized the economy with his tariffs.

 

[IIowaFarmBoy]

We were due for a recession. All parties have been doing massive quantitative easing that kicks the can down the road.

Republicans except Bush 2 tend to not cover things with bandaids and Dems do. Under Reagan we had massive interest rate hike and massive military spending but cut Federal jobs. The argument of whether FDR charted the right course and it will forever be argued. He saw the 2nd major dip in his administration.

We have never seen someone just blow things up before.

Give we had just kicked the can down the before I expect this one will be the one talked about for a long time

You can’t make money forever out of the air.

Maybe we are the Great Babylon or maybe we will pull it together

Maybe it’s just going to be painful. Very painful

 

[IIowaFarmBoy]

I've been telling all you scrubs the market was going to drop.

I went 100% cash on 2/6.

I started in January in increments. 85 percent cash. Five in bonds. 10 in the market funds and still a bit in Buffet

 

[bunsen82]

We were due for a recession. All parties have been doing massive quantitative easing that kicks the can down the road.

Republicans except Bush 2 tend to not cover things with bandaids and Dems do. Under Reagan we had massive interest rate hike and massive military spending but cut Federal jobs. The argument of whether FDR charted the right course and it will forever be argued. He saw the 2nd major dip in his administration.

We have never seen someone just blow things up before.

Give we had just kicked the can down the before I expect this one will be the one talked about for a long time

You can’t make money forever out of the air.

Maybe we are the Great Babylon or maybe we will pull it together

Maybe it’s just going to be painful. Very painful

We were valued high but we weren’t due for a recession we were in the process of a no landing until Trump derailed it with tariffs and slashing government jobs and creating instability.

 

[Tenacious E]

Is our economy really that fragile that 1 man can bring down the USA in 1 month? That seems equally impossible.

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. The Biden economy was not as good as he claimed and there were a lot of cracks in the system. Trump has destabilized the economy with his tariffs.

So many cracks that I got 25% returns on the S&P 2 years in a row. The horror. Things were humming along until 2-3 weeks ago when Trump started thrown monkey wrenches into the works daily.

 

[IIowaFarmBoy]

We were valued high but we weren’t due for a recession we were in the process of a no landing until Trump derailed it with tariffs and slashing government jobs and creating instability.

How can you create that much money thru printing as opposed to velocity and not create a bubble?