The Atlantic: Biden’s Electoral College Challenge
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Biden’s Electoral College Challenge
How demographic change is scrambling the geography of the 2024 presidential race
How demographic change is scrambling the geography of the 2024 presidential race
By Ronald Brownstein
President Joe Biden won a decisive Electoral College victory in 2020 by restoring old Democratic advantages in the Rust Belt while establishing new beachheads in the Sun Belt.
But this year, his position in polls has weakened on both fronts. The result is that, even this far from Election Day, signs are developing that Biden could face a last-mile problem in the Electoral College.
Even a modest recovery in Biden’s current support could put him in position to win states worth 255 Electoral College votes, strategists in both parties agree. His problem is that every option for capturing the final 15 Electoral College votes he would need to reach a winning majority of 270 looks significantly more difficult.
At this point, former President Donald Trump’s gains have provided him with more plausible alternatives to cross the last mile to 270. Trump’s personal vulnerabilities, Biden’s edge in building a campaign organization, and abortion rights’ prominence in several key swing states could erase that advantage. But for now, Biden looks to have less margin for error than the former president.
Read: Will Biden have a Gaza problem in November’s poll?
Biden’s odds may particularly diminish if he cannot hold all three of the former “blue wall” states across the Rust Belt that he recaptured in 2020 after Trump had taken them four years earlier: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Biden is running more competitively in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than in any other swing states. But in Michigan, Biden has struggled in most polls, whipsawed by defections among multiple groups Democrats rely on, including Arab Americans, auto workers, young people, and Black Americans.
As James Carville, the veteran Democratic strategist told me, if Biden can recover to win Michigan along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, “you are not going to lose.” But, Carville added, if Biden can’t hold all three, “you are going to have to catch an inside straight to win.”
For both campaigns, the math of the next Electoral College map starts with the results from the last campaign. In 2020, Biden won 25 states, the District of Columbia and a congressional district centered on Omaha, in Nebraska—one of the two states that awards some of its Electoral College votes by district. Last time, Trump won 25 states and a rural congressional district in Maine, the other state that awards some of its electors by district.
The places Biden won are worth 303 Electoral College votes in 2024; Trump’s places are worth 235. Biden’s advantage disappears, though, when looking at the states that appear to be securely in each side’s grip.
Of the 25 states Trump won, North Carolina was the only one he carried by less than three percentage points; Florida was the only other state Trump won by less than four points.
It’s not clear that Biden can truly threaten Trump in either state. Biden’s campaign, stressing criticism of Florida’s six-week abortion ban that went into effect today, has signaled some interest in contesting the state. But amid all the signs of Florida’s rightward drift in recent years, few operatives in either party believe the Biden campaign will undertake the enormous investment required to fully compete there.
Biden’s team has committed to a serious push in North Carolina. There, he could be helped by a gubernatorial race that pits Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein against Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, a social conservative who has described LGBTQ people as “filth” and spoken favorably about the era when women could not vote. Democrats also believe that Biden can harvest discontent over the 12-week abortion ban that the GOP-controlled state legislature passed last year
But Democrats have not won a presidential or U.S. Senate race in North Carolina since 2008. Despite Democratic gains in white-collar suburbs around Charlotte and Raleigh, Trump’s campaign believes that a steady flow of conservative-leaning white retirees from elsewhere is tilting the state to the right; polls to this point consistently show Trump leading, often by comfortable margins.
Biden has a much greater area of vulnerable terrain to defend. In 2020, he carried three of his 25 states by less than a single percentage point—Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin—and won Pennsylvania by a little more than one point. He also won Michigan and Nevada by about 2.5 percentage points each; in all, Biden carried six states by less than three points, compared with just one for Trump. Even Minnesota and New Hampshire, both of which Biden won by about seven points, don’t look entirely safe for him in 2024, though he remains favored in each.
Many operatives in both parties separate the six states Biden carried most narrowly into three distinct tiers. Biden has looked best in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Biden’s position has been weakest in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. Michigan falls into its own tier in between.
This ranking and Trump’s consistent lead in North Carolina reflect the upside-down racial dynamics of the 2024 race to this point. As Democrats always do, Biden still runs better among voters of color than among white voters. But the trend in support since 2020 has defied the usual pattern. Both state and national polls, as I’ve written, regularly show Biden closely matching the share of the vote he won in 2020 among white voters. But these same polls routinely show Trump significantly improving on his 2020 performance among Black and Latino voters, especially men. Biden is also holding much more of his 2020 support among seniors than he is among young people.
These demographic patterns are shaping the geography of the 2024 race. They explain why Biden has lost more ground since 2020 in the racially diverse and generally younger Sun Belt states than he has in the older and more preponderantly white Rust Belt states. Slipping support among voters of color (primarily Black voters) threatens Biden in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin too, but the danger for him isn’t as great as in the Sun Belt states, where minorities are a much larger share of the total electorate. Biden running better in the swing states that are less, rather than more, diverse “is an irony that we’re not used to,” says Bradley Beychok, a co-founder of the liberal advocacy group American Bridge 21st Century, which is running a massive campaign to reach mostly white swing voters in the Rust Belt battlegrounds.
Given these unexpected patterns, Democratic strategists I’ve spoken with this year almost uniformly agree with Carville that the most promising route for Biden to reach 270 Electoral College votes goes through the traditional industrial battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. “If you look at all the battleground-state polling, and don’t get too fixated on this poll or that, the polling consistently shows you that Biden runs better in the three industrial Midwest states than he does in the four swing Sun Belt states,” Doug Sosnik, who served as the chief White House political strategist for Bill Clinton, told me.
Democratic hopes for a Biden reelection almost all start with him holding Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where polls now generally show a dead heat. If Biden wins both and holds all the states that he won in 2020 by at least three points—as well as Washington, D.C., and the Omaha congressional district—that would bring the president to 255 Electoral College votes. At that point, even if Biden loses all of the Sun Belt battlegrounds, he could reach the 270-vote threshold just by taking Michigan, with its 15 votes, as well.
But Michigan has been a persistent weak spot for Biden. Although a CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday showed Biden narrowly leading Trump in Michigan, most polls for months have shown the former president, who campaigned there today, reliably ahead. “In all the internal polling I’m seeing and doing in Michigan, I’ve never had Joe Biden leading Donald Trump,” Richard Czuba, an independent Michigan pollster who conducts surveys for business and civic groups, told me.
Iowa Football Signees, Recruits at Drake Relays This Week
- By Eliot Clough
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A slew of Iowa football signees and recruits will compete at the Drake Relays this weekend. Take a look at who qualified in what events, their seed times and more.
STORY:
iowa.rivals.com
STORY:
Go Iowa Awesome - Recruit Rundown: Iowa Football Targets, Signees at 2024 Drake Relays
A slew of Iowa football signees and recruits will compete at the Drake Relays this week.
iowa.rivals.com
Maps show where dangerous summer heat could impact U.S.
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Maps show where dangerous summer heat could impact U.S.
"At least 20 states, including Washington, Texas, Colorado and almost the entire Northeast, are most likely to experience the out-of-norm heat. Only one small section of one state, southwest Alaska, is expected to have below-normal temperatures."
Maps show where dangerous summer heat could impact U.S.
Last summer, hundreds of millions of people were faced with triple-digit temperatures across the U.S. This year, it could happen again.
"Why should the university be obligated to provide food and water to people who have taken over a building?"
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One reporter asked the student to explain her demands for food and water. "It seems like you're saying, ‘we want to be revolutionaries, we want to take over this building, now would you please bring us some food,’" the reporter said.
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Columbia student mocked for viral video telling reporters that occupiers might die without food delivery
A Columbia student went viral online after telling reporters that protesters were at risk of dying or becoming sick if they did not receive food delivery.
Iowa’s 2024 legislative session by the numbers
- By cigaretteman
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Writing about the Iowa Legislature and its maddening agenda has become exhausting. Probably double for you, the reader at large. Maybe triple.
But it still seems like there needs to be some summing up after more than 100 days of endurance. Regurgitating my largely futile arguments is too much to bear.
So, I’m going to let the numbers do the talking. Here are some that reflect the action and inaction of the the 2004 session.
The final general fund budget for Fiscal year 2025, which starts July 1, approved by lawmakers — $8.9 billion.
The amount, under Iowa law, the Legislature could have spent, according to the nonpartisan Legislative services agency — $11.1 billion.
The projected ending balance surplus at the end of the 2025 budget year — $2.4 billion.
The projected surplus for Fiscal Year 2024, which ends June 30 --- $1.95 billion.
The actual surplus remaining after the FY 2023 — $1.83 billion.
What Iowa’s Taxpayer Relief Fund is projected to hold at the end of FY 2025 — $3.7 billion.
The reduction of state revenue over the next two years after adopting a flat 3.8% income tax, according to the Legislative Services Agency — $933 million.
The percentage of the cuts that will go to the wealthiest top 20% of households according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy — 68%.
The state income tax rate that will be paid by a hog baron — 3.8%.
The state income tax rate for employees of a meatpacking plant — 3.8%.
Donations of $1,000 or more to Gov. Kim Reynolds during 2023 — 251, part of $1.38 million in contributions.
Total state aid to public schools in FY 2025 — $3.78 billion.
Increase in state aid to public schools in FY 2025 — $147 million, or 3%.
Total spending on publicly funded education scholarships for private school students in FY 2025 — $179.1 million
Increase in state spending on private Education Savings Accounts — $51.2 million, or 30%.
The year-two projected cost of scholarships when the bill creating them was passed in 2023 — $156.3 million.
The funding cut for Area Education Agencies approved by lawmakers for FY 2025 — $32.5 million.
The number of AEAs Gov. Kim Reynolds said would be closed by her redesign plan — zero.
The number of AEA employees who are leaving their jobs in the wake of Reynolds’ plan — nearly 350.
The amount being spent on creating a new bureaucracy in the Department of Education to control AEAs — $10 million.
Number of groups that supported Reynolds’ original AEA bill — one (Americans for Prosperity).
The number of women who could receive expanded postpartum care for one year under Medicaid — 2,700.
The number of women and babies who would be ineligible for care after lawmakers lowered the wage threshold for eligibility — 1,700.
The estimate for needed repairs and upgrades in Iowa’s state parks — $100 million.
The 2025 budget for parks maintenance approved by lawmakers — $7.2 million.
Under a constitutional amendment pushed by Republican lawmakers, the number of House and Senate members who could block any future effort to raise income taxes — 34 and 17.
State lawmakers requiring a plurality of votes to get elected — 150.
The new fines for government officials who knowingly break open meetings laws — $5,000 to $12,000.
The number of establishments in the U.S. authorized to sell lab-created meat that now requires labeling under Iowa legislation — zero.
The percentage limit of THC per-serving in a hemp-infused drink -- 4%
Iowans who will be able to buy a Gadsden Flag “Don’t Tread on Me” license plate after lawmakers scrapped the bill --- zero.
The number of times slavery is mentioned in new curriculum rules for social studies cribbed from a conservative think tank and approved by Republican lawmakers — zero.
The number of major bills approved addressing substandard care in Iowa nursing homes and assisted living facilities — zero.
The number of major bills approved addressing Iowa’s dirty water -- zero.
The number of major bills responding to Iowa’s growing cancer rate -- zero.
The number of bills expanding access to free and reduced school lunch -- zero.
Amount spent mostly on food and beverages at legislative receptions sponsored by special interest groups during the 2024 session — $330,000.
The date of the next election — Nov. 5.
(319) 398-8262; todd.dorman@thegazette.com
www.thegazette.com
But it still seems like there needs to be some summing up after more than 100 days of endurance. Regurgitating my largely futile arguments is too much to bear.
So, I’m going to let the numbers do the talking. Here are some that reflect the action and inaction of the the 2004 session.
The final general fund budget for Fiscal year 2025, which starts July 1, approved by lawmakers — $8.9 billion.
The amount, under Iowa law, the Legislature could have spent, according to the nonpartisan Legislative services agency — $11.1 billion.
The projected ending balance surplus at the end of the 2025 budget year — $2.4 billion.
The projected surplus for Fiscal Year 2024, which ends June 30 --- $1.95 billion.
The actual surplus remaining after the FY 2023 — $1.83 billion.
What Iowa’s Taxpayer Relief Fund is projected to hold at the end of FY 2025 — $3.7 billion.
The reduction of state revenue over the next two years after adopting a flat 3.8% income tax, according to the Legislative Services Agency — $933 million.
The percentage of the cuts that will go to the wealthiest top 20% of households according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy — 68%.
The state income tax rate that will be paid by a hog baron — 3.8%.
The state income tax rate for employees of a meatpacking plant — 3.8%.
Donations of $1,000 or more to Gov. Kim Reynolds during 2023 — 251, part of $1.38 million in contributions.
Total state aid to public schools in FY 2025 — $3.78 billion.
Increase in state aid to public schools in FY 2025 — $147 million, or 3%.
Total spending on publicly funded education scholarships for private school students in FY 2025 — $179.1 million
Increase in state spending on private Education Savings Accounts — $51.2 million, or 30%.
The year-two projected cost of scholarships when the bill creating them was passed in 2023 — $156.3 million.
The funding cut for Area Education Agencies approved by lawmakers for FY 2025 — $32.5 million.
The number of AEAs Gov. Kim Reynolds said would be closed by her redesign plan — zero.
The number of AEA employees who are leaving their jobs in the wake of Reynolds’ plan — nearly 350.
The amount being spent on creating a new bureaucracy in the Department of Education to control AEAs — $10 million.
Number of groups that supported Reynolds’ original AEA bill — one (Americans for Prosperity).
The number of women who could receive expanded postpartum care for one year under Medicaid — 2,700.
The number of women and babies who would be ineligible for care after lawmakers lowered the wage threshold for eligibility — 1,700.
The estimate for needed repairs and upgrades in Iowa’s state parks — $100 million.
The 2025 budget for parks maintenance approved by lawmakers — $7.2 million.
Under a constitutional amendment pushed by Republican lawmakers, the number of House and Senate members who could block any future effort to raise income taxes — 34 and 17.
State lawmakers requiring a plurality of votes to get elected — 150.
The new fines for government officials who knowingly break open meetings laws — $5,000 to $12,000.
The number of establishments in the U.S. authorized to sell lab-created meat that now requires labeling under Iowa legislation — zero.
The percentage limit of THC per-serving in a hemp-infused drink -- 4%
Iowans who will be able to buy a Gadsden Flag “Don’t Tread on Me” license plate after lawmakers scrapped the bill --- zero.
The number of times slavery is mentioned in new curriculum rules for social studies cribbed from a conservative think tank and approved by Republican lawmakers — zero.
The number of major bills approved addressing substandard care in Iowa nursing homes and assisted living facilities — zero.
The number of major bills approved addressing Iowa’s dirty water -- zero.
The number of major bills responding to Iowa’s growing cancer rate -- zero.
The number of bills expanding access to free and reduced school lunch -- zero.
Amount spent mostly on food and beverages at legislative receptions sponsored by special interest groups during the 2024 session — $330,000.
The date of the next election — Nov. 5.
(319) 398-8262; todd.dorman@thegazette.com
Opinion: Iowa’s 2024 legislative session by the numbers
Here are numbers that reflect the action and inaction of the the 2004 session.
www.thegazette.com