Ann Selzer still searching for answers after final Iowa Poll badly missed its mark
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Ann Selzer still searching for answers after final Iowa Poll badly missed its mark
The pollster, whose sterling reputation took a hit when it missed the Trump-Harris result in Iowa by 17 points, said she has seen nothing in the polling data that signaled the results were offJOHNSTON — More than a month after the November election, Iowa-based pollster Ann Selzer still is searching for answers.
Full article:
Ann Selzer still searching for answers after final Iowa Poll badly missed its mark
The pollster, whose sterling reputation took a hit when it missed the Trump-Harris result in Iowa by 17 points, said she has seen nothing in the polling data that should have signaled the results were off
www.thegazette.com
Iowa tax revenue to dip below current spending next year, state estimating panel projects
- By cigaretteman
- Off Topic
- 9 Replies
The amount of tax revenue collected by the state in the coming budget year will be less than current state spending, according to new projections from the state’s nonpartisan fiscal estimating panel.
The roughly $200 million shortfall, driven largely by less state income tax revenue as a result of recent tax cuts, means when state lawmakers craft the next state budget they will need to either reduce some current state spending or dip into the more than $6 billion in state reserves.
The three-member Revenue Estimating Conference published the projections during its meeting Thursday at the Iowa Capitol.
Iowa is projected to collect $8.7 billion in the 2026 state budget year, which begins July 1, according to the panel’s estimates. In the current state budget year, Iowa is spending $8.9 billion.
If the panel’s projection is accurate, state lawmakers when they craft the next state budget during the 2025 legislative session will need to reduce state general fund spending by roughly $200 million or use unspent money in the state general fund or one of the state’s reserve accounts.
As of May, there was $2.4 billion unspent in the state’s general fund for the current budget year, according to a report from the state’s nonpartisan Legislative Services Agency. The state also has another $3.7 billion in its Taxpayer Relief Fund, which was created to cover any potential shortfalls as the result of state tax reductions.
The projected decrease in 2026 budget year revenue is driven largely by reduced tax collections resulting from tax cuts that created a 3.8 percent state income tax rate for most working Iowans starting in 2025.
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The state will see a drop of $687 million in personal income tax collections in the 2026 budget year, a 12.3 percent drop from the current budget year, according to the panel’s projections.
The tax cuts, enacted over multiple bills and starting in 2019, have gradually reduced the number of state income tax brackets and lowered rates. In 2023 there were four brackets ranging from 4.4 percent to 6 percent, and in 2024 there were three brackets ranging from 4.4 percent to 5.7 percent.
In 2025, most working Iowans will pay a 3.8 percent state income tax rate.
While statehouse Democrats sounded alarms over the projections, Iowa Department of Management Director Kraig Paulsen, an REC member appointed by Gov. Kim Reynolds and a former Republican Speaker of the Iowa House, said between the state’s reserve accounts and what he described as a fiscally responsible state government, he believes Iowa tax revenues will grow to support state spending before those reserve accounts are exhausted.
“The trick on that is trying to get where you get that projection correct, so that as you draw that (budget surplus) down, you never get on the bottom side of that,” Paulsen told reporters after Thursday’s meeting. “And I think so far they’ve been making — and by that, I mean the General Assembly (and) governor — been making prudent decisions that will draw that down at a rate that is sustainable, and the state will grow right out of it.”
Gov. Kim Reynolds, in a statement, said the state income tax cuts are “working as designed.” Reynolds has in the past advocated for a complete elimination of the state income tax.
“As I’ve said, the government has been taking in too much taxpayer money. We fixed that by cutting taxes and taking in less. That means Iowans get to keep more of what they earn, and that’s how it should be,” Reynolds’ statement said. “Our state’s fiscal health remains strong, and Iowa’s economy continues to grow.”
Statehouse Democrats criticized the budget priorities of statehouse Republicans, who by virtue of their majorities have complete control of the state lawmaking and budgeting process.
“Today’s negative revenue projections confirm what most Iowans feel: the Reynolds economy is not working for everyday people,” Iowa Rep. Timi Brown-Powers, a Democrat from Waterloo on the House’s budget committee, said in a statement. “Tax breaks for corporations and the wealthy combined with vouchers have created an unsustainable budget while costs keep rising for Iowa families.”
Iowa Sen. Janet Petersen, a Democrat from Des Moines on the Senate’s budget committee, in a statement expressed concern for state public school funding and other Democratic priorities because of shrinking overall state tax revenue and increasing costs to the state’s new private school financial assistance program.
“Republican lawmakers’ and Gov. Reynolds’ priorities put private school vouchers and corporate tax giveaways ahead of our kids in public schools, seniors in nursing homes, and tax relief for working families,” Petersen’s statement said.
www.thegazette.com
The roughly $200 million shortfall, driven largely by less state income tax revenue as a result of recent tax cuts, means when state lawmakers craft the next state budget they will need to either reduce some current state spending or dip into the more than $6 billion in state reserves.
The three-member Revenue Estimating Conference published the projections during its meeting Thursday at the Iowa Capitol.
Iowa is projected to collect $8.7 billion in the 2026 state budget year, which begins July 1, according to the panel’s estimates. In the current state budget year, Iowa is spending $8.9 billion.
If the panel’s projection is accurate, state lawmakers when they craft the next state budget during the 2025 legislative session will need to reduce state general fund spending by roughly $200 million or use unspent money in the state general fund or one of the state’s reserve accounts.
As of May, there was $2.4 billion unspent in the state’s general fund for the current budget year, according to a report from the state’s nonpartisan Legislative Services Agency. The state also has another $3.7 billion in its Taxpayer Relief Fund, which was created to cover any potential shortfalls as the result of state tax reductions.
The projected decrease in 2026 budget year revenue is driven largely by reduced tax collections resulting from tax cuts that created a 3.8 percent state income tax rate for most working Iowans starting in 2025.
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The state will see a drop of $687 million in personal income tax collections in the 2026 budget year, a 12.3 percent drop from the current budget year, according to the panel’s projections.
The tax cuts, enacted over multiple bills and starting in 2019, have gradually reduced the number of state income tax brackets and lowered rates. In 2023 there were four brackets ranging from 4.4 percent to 6 percent, and in 2024 there were three brackets ranging from 4.4 percent to 5.7 percent.
In 2025, most working Iowans will pay a 3.8 percent state income tax rate.
What Iowa leaders are saying
While statehouse Democrats sounded alarms over the projections, Iowa Department of Management Director Kraig Paulsen, an REC member appointed by Gov. Kim Reynolds and a former Republican Speaker of the Iowa House, said between the state’s reserve accounts and what he described as a fiscally responsible state government, he believes Iowa tax revenues will grow to support state spending before those reserve accounts are exhausted.
“The trick on that is trying to get where you get that projection correct, so that as you draw that (budget surplus) down, you never get on the bottom side of that,” Paulsen told reporters after Thursday’s meeting. “And I think so far they’ve been making — and by that, I mean the General Assembly (and) governor — been making prudent decisions that will draw that down at a rate that is sustainable, and the state will grow right out of it.”
Gov. Kim Reynolds, in a statement, said the state income tax cuts are “working as designed.” Reynolds has in the past advocated for a complete elimination of the state income tax.
“As I’ve said, the government has been taking in too much taxpayer money. We fixed that by cutting taxes and taking in less. That means Iowans get to keep more of what they earn, and that’s how it should be,” Reynolds’ statement said. “Our state’s fiscal health remains strong, and Iowa’s economy continues to grow.”
Statehouse Democrats criticized the budget priorities of statehouse Republicans, who by virtue of their majorities have complete control of the state lawmaking and budgeting process.
“Today’s negative revenue projections confirm what most Iowans feel: the Reynolds economy is not working for everyday people,” Iowa Rep. Timi Brown-Powers, a Democrat from Waterloo on the House’s budget committee, said in a statement. “Tax breaks for corporations and the wealthy combined with vouchers have created an unsustainable budget while costs keep rising for Iowa families.”
Iowa Sen. Janet Petersen, a Democrat from Des Moines on the Senate’s budget committee, in a statement expressed concern for state public school funding and other Democratic priorities because of shrinking overall state tax revenue and increasing costs to the state’s new private school financial assistance program.
“Republican lawmakers’ and Gov. Reynolds’ priorities put private school vouchers and corporate tax giveaways ahead of our kids in public schools, seniors in nursing homes, and tax relief for working families,” Petersen’s statement said.
Iowa tax revenue to dip below current spending next year, state estimating panel projects
The Iowa Revenue Estimating Conference’s latest projections reflect a dip in state revenue primarily driven by reductions in state income tax rates
www.thegazette.com
Trump trolls Jill Biden as he hawks new perfume: ‘A fragrance your enemies can’t resist’
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Trump trolls Jill Biden in ad for perfume: ‘A fragrance your enemies can’t resist’
Trump also met with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky while in Paris
www.independent.co.uk
THE WORLD IS GETTING SCARIER
Now we've got squirrels hunting and eating meat. Won't be long and they're gonna getting into squirrel squads and coming after us and our pets!
Wed, December 18, 2024 at 11:34 AM CST
3 min read
California ground squirrels of all ages and genders were observed actively hunting the small rodents
Flesh-eating squirrels which hunt down and devour voles have been spotted for the first time in the wild.
Until now, squirrels were thought to be primarily vegetarian, cramming their cheeks full of seeds and nuts, which they often bury in underground stores to get through the colder months.
But biologists were amazed to see Californian ground squirrels chasing and killing voles in predatory behaviour never before recorded in the animals.
Experts say it fundamentally changes their understanding of squirrels, which clearly have a more omnivorous and flexible diet than had been assumed.
“This was shocking,” said squirrel expert Dr Jennifer Smith, of the University of Wisconsin.
“We had never seen this behaviour before. Squirrels are one of the most familiar animals to people. We see them right outside our windows; we interact with them regularly.
“Yet here’s this never-before-encountered-in-science behaviour that sheds light on the fact that there’s so much more to learn about the natural history of the world around us.”
Researchers have been following squirrel populations at Briones Regional Park in Contra Costa County since 2010, but this is the first time they have observed the carnivorous behaviour.
The squirrels’ carnivorous behaviour peaked during an explosion in vole numbers
Out of 74 observed interactions with voles between June and July, 42 per cent involved active hunting of these small rodents by ground squirrels.
Dr Sonja Wild, who helped set up the California Ground Squirrels Project with Dr Smith, said she was astonished when undergraduate students first came to her saying they had filmed the strange new behaviour.
“I could barely believe my eyes,” said Dr Wild, of the University of California. “From then, we saw that behaviour almost every day. Once we started looking, we saw it everywhere.”
Ground squirrels generally live on the ground or in burrows, in contrast with British tree squirrels, such as the red and grey, which make their homes in trees.
Tree squirrels have large bushy tails, unlike ground squirrels, and measure between 12 and 20 inches long, compared with ground squirrels, which average about eight to 12 inches in length.
Ground squirrels are known to eat insects, bird eggs and nestlings, but can ‘respond to changes in food availability’, say scientists
Ground squirrels are known for their burrowing behaviour, creating intricate tunnel systems which they use as escape routes from predators.
As well as nuts and seeds, the animals are also known to occasionally eat insects, bird eggs and nestlings.
In new research, published in the Journal of Ethology, the authors documented California ground squirrels of all ages and genders hunting, eating and competing over vole prey.
The squirrels’ carnivorous summer behaviour peaked during the first two weeks of July, coinciding with an explosion of vole numbers at the park.
This suggests the squirrels’ hunting behaviour emerged alongside a temporary increase in the availability of prey, the study said. The scientists did not observe the squirrels hunting other mammals.
Dr Smith added that many species, including the California ground squirrel, are “incredible opportunists”.
But they said many questions remain unanswered, including how widespread hunting behaviour is among squirrels, whether and how it is passed down from parent to pup, and how it affects the environment.
The authors are planning to return to the same spot next summer to see what impact, if any, this year’s vole hunting may have on squirrel reproduction compared with the past decade.
www.yahoo.com
Squirrels spotted hunting and eating animals for first time
Sarah KnaptonWed, December 18, 2024 at 11:34 AM CST
3 min read
California ground squirrels of all ages and genders were observed actively hunting the small rodents
Flesh-eating squirrels which hunt down and devour voles have been spotted for the first time in the wild.
Until now, squirrels were thought to be primarily vegetarian, cramming their cheeks full of seeds and nuts, which they often bury in underground stores to get through the colder months.
But biologists were amazed to see Californian ground squirrels chasing and killing voles in predatory behaviour never before recorded in the animals.
Experts say it fundamentally changes their understanding of squirrels, which clearly have a more omnivorous and flexible diet than had been assumed.
“This was shocking,” said squirrel expert Dr Jennifer Smith, of the University of Wisconsin.
“We had never seen this behaviour before. Squirrels are one of the most familiar animals to people. We see them right outside our windows; we interact with them regularly.
“Yet here’s this never-before-encountered-in-science behaviour that sheds light on the fact that there’s so much more to learn about the natural history of the world around us.”
Researchers have been following squirrel populations at Briones Regional Park in Contra Costa County since 2010, but this is the first time they have observed the carnivorous behaviour.
The squirrels’ carnivorous behaviour peaked during an explosion in vole numbers
Out of 74 observed interactions with voles between June and July, 42 per cent involved active hunting of these small rodents by ground squirrels.
Dr Sonja Wild, who helped set up the California Ground Squirrels Project with Dr Smith, said she was astonished when undergraduate students first came to her saying they had filmed the strange new behaviour.
“I could barely believe my eyes,” said Dr Wild, of the University of California. “From then, we saw that behaviour almost every day. Once we started looking, we saw it everywhere.”
Ground squirrels generally live on the ground or in burrows, in contrast with British tree squirrels, such as the red and grey, which make their homes in trees.
Tree squirrels have large bushy tails, unlike ground squirrels, and measure between 12 and 20 inches long, compared with ground squirrels, which average about eight to 12 inches in length.
California squirrels are eating another rodent for the first time, new study finds
Hubble trouble or Superbubble? Astronomers need to escape the 'supervoid' to solve cosmology crisis
Ground squirrels are known to eat insects, bird eggs and nestlings, but can ‘respond to changes in food availability’, say scientists
Ground squirrels are known for their burrowing behaviour, creating intricate tunnel systems which they use as escape routes from predators.
As well as nuts and seeds, the animals are also known to occasionally eat insects, bird eggs and nestlings.
In new research, published in the Journal of Ethology, the authors documented California ground squirrels of all ages and genders hunting, eating and competing over vole prey.
The squirrels’ carnivorous summer behaviour peaked during the first two weeks of July, coinciding with an explosion of vole numbers at the park.
This suggests the squirrels’ hunting behaviour emerged alongside a temporary increase in the availability of prey, the study said. The scientists did not observe the squirrels hunting other mammals.
‘Incredible opportunists’
“The fact that California ground squirrels are behaviourally flexible and can respond to changes in food availability might help them persist in environments rapidly changing due to the presence of humans,” Dr Wild added.Dr Smith added that many species, including the California ground squirrel, are “incredible opportunists”.
But they said many questions remain unanswered, including how widespread hunting behaviour is among squirrels, whether and how it is passed down from parent to pup, and how it affects the environment.
The authors are planning to return to the same spot next summer to see what impact, if any, this year’s vole hunting may have on squirrel reproduction compared with the past decade.
Squirrels spotted hunting and eating animals for first time
Flesh-eating squirrels which hunt down and devour voles have been spotted for the first time in the wild.
New 2025 Target out of Canada Talks Iowa Offer
- By Eliot Clough
- The Press Box
- 7 Replies
Spoke with one of Iowa's newest offerees, Tristan Beckford yesterday afternoon.
Details on his super recent recruitment with Iowa, his thoughts on what the Hawkeyes have to offer, what he's looking for in his recruitment, and we drop an evaluation.
STORY:
iowa.rivals.com
Details on his super recent recruitment with Iowa, his thoughts on what the Hawkeyes have to offer, what he's looking for in his recruitment, and we drop an evaluation.
STORY:
New 2025 Target out of Canada Talks Iowa Offer
Iowa MBB has a new 2025 target on their radar. Tristan Beckford details the recruitment process with the Hawkeyes.
House ethics committee to release Matt Gaetz report
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House Ethics Committee votes to release Matt Gaetz report - BBC News
The report follows a years-long investigation into allegations of sexual misconduct and illicit drug use, which Gaetz denies.
www.bbc.com
Majority of Americans oppose Trump’s proposals to test democracy’s limits
- By cigaretteman
- Off Topic
- 6 Replies
Then why in the world did they vote for him?:
A majority of Americans oppose Donald Trump’s plans to use the U.S. military to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, to instruct the U.S. Justice Department to investigate his political rivals and to pardon rioters charged with breaking into the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, according to a nationwide Washington Post-University of Maryland poll.
Get the latest election news and results
Even larger majorities of Americans oppose Trump’s plans to jail reporters for writing stories he doesn’t like and having police use force against anti-Trump protests.
The survey of 1,251 Americans was conducted weeks after Trump’s victory and sought to examine public sentiment about positions espoused by the president-elect that challenge democratic principles and strain constitutional norms, as well as views on the legitimacy of American elections after Trump’s win. Trump has claimed a broad mandate for his proposals and has selected cabinet secretaries and other executive branch officials who have expressed eagerness to carry them out. But the poll results indicate that Americans reject many of the proposals that experts say could erode the guardrails that help keep presidential power in check.
Trump does seem to have the blessing of a majority of registered Republicans for some of his most divisive ideas, including 77 percent who back his pledge to use the armed forces to carry out mass deportations compared with 42 percent of Americans overall. Nearly 6 in 10 Republicans say they support the Justice Department investigating Trump’s enemies, whereas fewer than 4 in 10 Americans overall agree. And 60 percent of Republicans back Trump pardoning Jan. 6 convicts, almost double the 32 percent of Americans in general who feel the same.
“I find it mostly disheartening that there is so much division. There is a fundamental disagreement about basic norms and basic facts,” said Mike Hanmer, a government and politics professor at the University of Maryland. “We’re not on the same page in terms of how we deal with power and how we hold power accountable.”
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Americans are also split over how Trump will behave as president this time. The poll finds 40 percent think he will try to rule as a dictator, 41 percent say he won’t and another 19 percent aren’t sure. Yet Americans widely have faith in democratic institutions, with 71 percent saying constitutional guardrails like the checks and balances of Congress and the Supreme Court would block Trump from securing total power over the country, while 25 percent think Trump would succeed if he tried.
An overwhelming majority of Americans across the political spectrum do not think Trump should jail reporters who write stories he doesn’t like. Still, 1 in 10 Americans support it, including 15 percent of Republicans and 5 percent of Democrats. Hanmer said that’s still a “dangerously high” number of people who would be okay with prosecuting journalists. During a news conference this week, Trump said he wanted to “straighten out the press” and suggested the Justice Department target the “very dishonest” media.
Separately, a 72 percent majority of Americans oppose police using force to stop anti-Trump protests; including 54 percent of Republicans. Seven in 10 Republicans support Trump firing FBI Director Christopher A. Wray, while just over half of the public overall opposes prematurely ending his 10-year term. The poll was completed before Wray announced his intention to resign last week, though Trump had sent a clear message that he intended to replace Wray when he endorsed Kash Patel as the next FBI director.
The poll also asked how people felt about President Joe Biden pardoning his son, Hunter, who had been convicted in June on tax and gun charges. Nearly 7 in 10 Americans oppose the decision, including 47 percent of Democrats and 88 percent of Republicans. Far fewer Republicans support Biden pardoning his son, who was not convicted of a violent crime, than they do Trump pardoning a group of people who engaged in a violent takeover of the U.S. Capitol.
Drew, a 31-year-old police detective in New Jersey who declined to give his last name for fear of online harassment, said he hadn’t supported Trump pardoning the Jan. 6 convicts until Biden did so for his son. Drew, who voted for Trump, said in an interview that as someone who works in law enforcement, he didn’t support what the rioters did that day. But he also said he thinks they were trying to “practice their civic duty” because the 2020 election results “didn’t seem accurate.”
The mob of Trump supporters who sought to block Congress’s certification of Biden’s victory in 2021 did so after Trump convinced them that there had been widespread voting fraud that cost him the election — despite there being no evidence of significant malfeasance. In the months leading up to the 2024 election, Trump and many of his allies baselessly warned of voting irregularities and corruption to steal the election for the Democrats. Since he won, Trump has not publicly questioned whether the election was administered fairly and his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, quickly conceded defeat.
The Post-UMD poll finds 79 percent of Americans say Trump won legitimately this year while 63 percent say Biden’s victory in 2020 was fair. Acceptance of Trump’s win is bipartisan, with 96 percent of Republicans, 84 percent of independents and 70 percent of Democrats saying he won legitimately. There is also a slight uptick in Republicans accepting Biden’s 2020 win compared to a Post-UMD poll conducted in 2023. Last year, 31 percent of Republicans said Biden fairly won in 2020 and this year 41 percent do. A 58 percent majority of Republicans continue to reject Biden’s 2020 victory.
Democratic acceptance of Trump’s win this year is more than twice as high as in 2017, when a Post-UMD survey that year found 32 percent believed he legitimately won the 2016 vote. Those views were fueled by investigations of that year’s election, which found that Russia had spread disinformation to interfere on Trump’s behalf.
The poll also asked whether there was voter fraud in the 2024 election. About 1 in 6 Americans (16 percent) say there is solid evidence of widespread voter fraud in the 2024 election, down from the 1 in 3 Americans (33 percent) who said this about the 2020 election in a Post-UMD poll last year. Perceptions of evidence of fraud in elections have plummeted among Republicans. Last year, 62 percent of Republicans said there was proven fraud in the 2020 election compared to 21 percent today who say there was in this year’s election. (There is no evidence of widespread fraud in either election.)
“The Republican base will believe what Trump says about this,” Hanmer said.
Thomas Sweeney, a 74-year-old from Texas, said he voted reluctantly for Trump. He blames the president-elect for the Jan. 6 attack and, as a West Point graduate, said he strongly opposes using the military for any domestic matters, including deportations. He also believes Trump will try to rule as a dictator, but is hopeful Congress will stand up to him.
“We need to have Congress be able to flex their muscles and not roll over every time he yells about something,” Sweeney said.
Americans are also divided over whether Trump will try to stay in office after his second term ends in 2029, despite the Constitution saying a president can only be elected to president twice. Just under half, 48 percent, say he will try to stay in the White House for a third term, and 50 percent say he will step down. Some Trump allies, like former adviser Stephen K. Bannon, have already floated the idea that Trump could run again because his terms were not consecutive. Constitutional scholars say the theory has no basis.
Overall, Americans are at odds over what Trump’s election means for the country. About 3 in 10 say his election is “a crisis for the country,” while a similar share say it is “great for the country.” About 2 in 10 say his win is a setback, but not a crisis, and roughly the same share say it is good, but not great.
A majority of Americans oppose Donald Trump’s plans to use the U.S. military to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, to instruct the U.S. Justice Department to investigate his political rivals and to pardon rioters charged with breaking into the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, according to a nationwide Washington Post-University of Maryland poll.
Get the latest election news and resultsEven larger majorities of Americans oppose Trump’s plans to jail reporters for writing stories he doesn’t like and having police use force against anti-Trump protests.
The survey of 1,251 Americans was conducted weeks after Trump’s victory and sought to examine public sentiment about positions espoused by the president-elect that challenge democratic principles and strain constitutional norms, as well as views on the legitimacy of American elections after Trump’s win. Trump has claimed a broad mandate for his proposals and has selected cabinet secretaries and other executive branch officials who have expressed eagerness to carry them out. But the poll results indicate that Americans reject many of the proposals that experts say could erode the guardrails that help keep presidential power in check.
Trump does seem to have the blessing of a majority of registered Republicans for some of his most divisive ideas, including 77 percent who back his pledge to use the armed forces to carry out mass deportations compared with 42 percent of Americans overall. Nearly 6 in 10 Republicans say they support the Justice Department investigating Trump’s enemies, whereas fewer than 4 in 10 Americans overall agree. And 60 percent of Republicans back Trump pardoning Jan. 6 convicts, almost double the 32 percent of Americans in general who feel the same.
“I find it mostly disheartening that there is so much division. There is a fundamental disagreement about basic norms and basic facts,” said Mike Hanmer, a government and politics professor at the University of Maryland. “We’re not on the same page in terms of how we deal with power and how we hold power accountable.”
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Follow Politics
Americans are also split over how Trump will behave as president this time. The poll finds 40 percent think he will try to rule as a dictator, 41 percent say he won’t and another 19 percent aren’t sure. Yet Americans widely have faith in democratic institutions, with 71 percent saying constitutional guardrails like the checks and balances of Congress and the Supreme Court would block Trump from securing total power over the country, while 25 percent think Trump would succeed if he tried.
An overwhelming majority of Americans across the political spectrum do not think Trump should jail reporters who write stories he doesn’t like. Still, 1 in 10 Americans support it, including 15 percent of Republicans and 5 percent of Democrats. Hanmer said that’s still a “dangerously high” number of people who would be okay with prosecuting journalists. During a news conference this week, Trump said he wanted to “straighten out the press” and suggested the Justice Department target the “very dishonest” media.
Separately, a 72 percent majority of Americans oppose police using force to stop anti-Trump protests; including 54 percent of Republicans. Seven in 10 Republicans support Trump firing FBI Director Christopher A. Wray, while just over half of the public overall opposes prematurely ending his 10-year term. The poll was completed before Wray announced his intention to resign last week, though Trump had sent a clear message that he intended to replace Wray when he endorsed Kash Patel as the next FBI director.
The poll also asked how people felt about President Joe Biden pardoning his son, Hunter, who had been convicted in June on tax and gun charges. Nearly 7 in 10 Americans oppose the decision, including 47 percent of Democrats and 88 percent of Republicans. Far fewer Republicans support Biden pardoning his son, who was not convicted of a violent crime, than they do Trump pardoning a group of people who engaged in a violent takeover of the U.S. Capitol.
Drew, a 31-year-old police detective in New Jersey who declined to give his last name for fear of online harassment, said he hadn’t supported Trump pardoning the Jan. 6 convicts until Biden did so for his son. Drew, who voted for Trump, said in an interview that as someone who works in law enforcement, he didn’t support what the rioters did that day. But he also said he thinks they were trying to “practice their civic duty” because the 2020 election results “didn’t seem accurate.”
The mob of Trump supporters who sought to block Congress’s certification of Biden’s victory in 2021 did so after Trump convinced them that there had been widespread voting fraud that cost him the election — despite there being no evidence of significant malfeasance. In the months leading up to the 2024 election, Trump and many of his allies baselessly warned of voting irregularities and corruption to steal the election for the Democrats. Since he won, Trump has not publicly questioned whether the election was administered fairly and his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, quickly conceded defeat.
The Post-UMD poll finds 79 percent of Americans say Trump won legitimately this year while 63 percent say Biden’s victory in 2020 was fair. Acceptance of Trump’s win is bipartisan, with 96 percent of Republicans, 84 percent of independents and 70 percent of Democrats saying he won legitimately. There is also a slight uptick in Republicans accepting Biden’s 2020 win compared to a Post-UMD poll conducted in 2023. Last year, 31 percent of Republicans said Biden fairly won in 2020 and this year 41 percent do. A 58 percent majority of Republicans continue to reject Biden’s 2020 victory.
Democratic acceptance of Trump’s win this year is more than twice as high as in 2017, when a Post-UMD survey that year found 32 percent believed he legitimately won the 2016 vote. Those views were fueled by investigations of that year’s election, which found that Russia had spread disinformation to interfere on Trump’s behalf.
The poll also asked whether there was voter fraud in the 2024 election. About 1 in 6 Americans (16 percent) say there is solid evidence of widespread voter fraud in the 2024 election, down from the 1 in 3 Americans (33 percent) who said this about the 2020 election in a Post-UMD poll last year. Perceptions of evidence of fraud in elections have plummeted among Republicans. Last year, 62 percent of Republicans said there was proven fraud in the 2020 election compared to 21 percent today who say there was in this year’s election. (There is no evidence of widespread fraud in either election.)
“The Republican base will believe what Trump says about this,” Hanmer said.
Thomas Sweeney, a 74-year-old from Texas, said he voted reluctantly for Trump. He blames the president-elect for the Jan. 6 attack and, as a West Point graduate, said he strongly opposes using the military for any domestic matters, including deportations. He also believes Trump will try to rule as a dictator, but is hopeful Congress will stand up to him.
“We need to have Congress be able to flex their muscles and not roll over every time he yells about something,” Sweeney said.
Americans are also divided over whether Trump will try to stay in office after his second term ends in 2029, despite the Constitution saying a president can only be elected to president twice. Just under half, 48 percent, say he will try to stay in the White House for a third term, and 50 percent say he will step down. Some Trump allies, like former adviser Stephen K. Bannon, have already floated the idea that Trump could run again because his terms were not consecutive. Constitutional scholars say the theory has no basis.
Overall, Americans are at odds over what Trump’s election means for the country. About 3 in 10 say his election is “a crisis for the country,” while a similar share say it is “great for the country.” About 2 in 10 say his win is a setback, but not a crisis, and roughly the same share say it is good, but not great.
-
Poll
Your Chance to Call it Now -- Who Starts Game One in 2025?
- By Eliot Clough
- The Press Box
- 15 Replies
Dubuque private school raises tuition by 58% after voucher expansion
- Off Topic
- 405 Replies
Dubuque private school raises tuition by 58% after voucher expansion
The change is a big one for Holy Family. According to an email obtained by Iowa Starting Line detailing the change, the district says the increase reflects
iowastartingline.com
