CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said on that Monday former President Donald Trump is hurtling toward a remarkable performance with black voters in the 2024 election.
Trump has significantly shrunk his deficit with President Joe Biden among black Americans in the six battleground states, with the current president leading the former president 70% to 18%, a May New York Times/Siena College poll found. Enten, on “CNN News Central,” was stunned by how Trump is performing with black Americans as a Republican candidate, as well as how unpopular Biden is becoming with these voters.
“I keep looking for this to change, to go back to a historical norm and it, simply put, has not yet. So, this is the margin, or Biden and Trump among black voters, compare where we were at this point in 2020, compare to where we are now. At this point, look at this. In 2020, Joe Biden was getting 86% of the African American vote. Look at where it is now. It’s 70%, that’s a 16-point drop, John,” Enten told host John Berman. “And more than that, it’s not just that Joe Biden is losing ground. It’s that Donald Trump is gaining ground. You go from 7%, single digits at this point in 2020, to now 21% and again, John, I keep looking for signs that this is going to go back to normal and I don’t see it yet in the polling of anything right now. We’re careening towards a historic performance for a Republican presidential candidate, the likes of which we have not seen in six decades.”
Enten told Berman that Biden is not losing as many older black voters but is hemorrhaging the youth.
“This is where we get very interesting,” Enten said. “So, I decided to deep dive deeper into the cross tabs, figure out where is it that Joe Biden is truly struggling among black voters. All right, so this is black voters, Biden versus Trump margin. Look at black voters aged fifty and older and you’ll see it. Look, Joe Biden was leading amongst this group at this point by 83 points back in 2020. Now, it’s 74 points, so yeah, a slight decline in that margin, but nothing out of this world.”
“Look at black voters under the age of 50,” the data reporter continued. “Holy cow, folks, holy cow. Look at this. Joe Biden was up by 80 points among this group back at this point in 2020, look at where that margin has careened down towards. It’s now just, get this, 37 points. That lead has dropped by more than half, Mr. Berman. I’ve just never seen anything like this. I’m like speechless because you always look at history and you go, ‘okay, this is a historic moment.’ If this polling is anywhere near correct, we’re looking at a historic moment right now, where black voters under the age of 50, which have historically been such a big part of the democratic coalition, are leaving in droves.”
Berman noted that is a “huge drop” in such a short period of time.
Enten added that when independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the ballot, Biden and Trump both perform worse with black voters, but that he cuts into the current president’s lead more.
“It’s partially a artifact of Donald Trump perhaps being better liked among black voters, but it’s also a real artifact of Joe Biden being significantly less liked among black voters than he was four years ago,” Enten concluded.
Trump has significantly shrunk his deficit with President Joe Biden among black Americans in the six battleground states, with the current president leading the former president 70% to 18%, a May New York Times/Siena College poll found. Enten, on “CNN News Central,” was stunned by how Trump is performing with black Americans as a Republican candidate, as well as how unpopular Biden is becoming with these voters.
“I keep looking for this to change, to go back to a historical norm and it, simply put, has not yet. So, this is the margin, or Biden and Trump among black voters, compare where we were at this point in 2020, compare to where we are now. At this point, look at this. In 2020, Joe Biden was getting 86% of the African American vote. Look at where it is now. It’s 70%, that’s a 16-point drop, John,” Enten told host John Berman. “And more than that, it’s not just that Joe Biden is losing ground. It’s that Donald Trump is gaining ground. You go from 7%, single digits at this point in 2020, to now 21% and again, John, I keep looking for signs that this is going to go back to normal and I don’t see it yet in the polling of anything right now. We’re careening towards a historic performance for a Republican presidential candidate, the likes of which we have not seen in six decades.”
Enten told Berman that Biden is not losing as many older black voters but is hemorrhaging the youth.
“This is where we get very interesting,” Enten said. “So, I decided to deep dive deeper into the cross tabs, figure out where is it that Joe Biden is truly struggling among black voters. All right, so this is black voters, Biden versus Trump margin. Look at black voters aged fifty and older and you’ll see it. Look, Joe Biden was leading amongst this group at this point by 83 points back in 2020. Now, it’s 74 points, so yeah, a slight decline in that margin, but nothing out of this world.”
“Look at black voters under the age of 50,” the data reporter continued. “Holy cow, folks, holy cow. Look at this. Joe Biden was up by 80 points among this group back at this point in 2020, look at where that margin has careened down towards. It’s now just, get this, 37 points. That lead has dropped by more than half, Mr. Berman. I’ve just never seen anything like this. I’m like speechless because you always look at history and you go, ‘okay, this is a historic moment.’ If this polling is anywhere near correct, we’re looking at a historic moment right now, where black voters under the age of 50, which have historically been such a big part of the democratic coalition, are leaving in droves.”
Berman noted that is a “huge drop” in such a short period of time.
Enten added that when independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the ballot, Biden and Trump both perform worse with black voters, but that he cuts into the current president’s lead more.
“It’s partially a artifact of Donald Trump perhaps being better liked among black voters, but it’s also a real artifact of Joe Biden being significantly less liked among black voters than he was four years ago,” Enten concluded.
