Basically you are at the level of intelligence of my 8 year old. You initially said we were in a recession because all you needed to do was look at your 401k. Hence you got my response the economy and stock market are 2 different things. Secondly since you think the stock market is only based on future discounting you are telling me earning are going to decline by 30% . . . I would love to make a side bet with you that
. Lets do education on the stock market real quick. Individuals had excess money from stimulus couldn't do anything else during covid, they started playing in the stock market and started to make lots of money, add in a stock market that was already at high valuations for a variety of reasons but primarily low interest rates. The PE's got way to high to over exuberance similar to the roaring 20's and the dot com bubble. When the fed started increasing interest rates, it meant that the PE's that were acceptable before were no longer and those valuations need to come down immensely. I am of the opinion right now the stock market is primarily trying to adjust to interest rates, maybe slightly for a recession but not much. Its why I think we see a bounce and then you start getting the revisions to estimates coming down and the stock market having another decline next year. You may have been through these a couple times but your rational is far from what is really occurring in the stock market. Just look at Shiller PE chart. That tells you all you need to know, about the overvaluation of the prior market. If you think those valuations were appropriate I don't know what to tell you. You are correct that the market does try to discount the future, but if that was the case we should have been down much more last year.
A recession encompasses much more generally than just GDP. If that is your only focus then you are correct. All I stated was the average person is not feeling the affects of your "recession." It is no different today than it was 6 months ago than it was a year ago. Look below for the general definition of a recession and what it all entails. You are correct on 2 quarters, but the effects are much more than that. We haven't seen any of the resulting effects yet- and we still have a possibility we won't. However, I think as I have said many times, the Fed will overtighten as they are afraid of loosening to quick and having a 1970 situation.
What qualifies as a recession?
A recession is a significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity. A popular rule of thumb is that
two consecutive quarters of decline in gross domestic product (GDP) constitute a recession. Recessions typically produce declines in economic output, consumer demand, and employment.