My Chart as of now...
Some interesting stats to chew on to start.
Horses with a form rating of less than 50% are 1-for-123 in the Derby over the past 30 years. The only winner — Country House (2019)
— got the victory via disqualification.
2022 qualifiers: Classic Causeway, Un Ojo, Charge It, Rich Strike, Golden Glider, and Rattle N Roll.
Derby entrants that recorded a positive last-race ESR (+1 or greater) are 3-for-126 since 1992. Sea Hero (1993), Thunder Gulch (1995), and Street Sense (2007) were the three winners.
2022 qualifiers: Zandon, Mo Donegal, Happy Jack, Rich Strike, Rattle N Roll, and Skippylongstocking.
Since 1992, horses that went to post at odds of 15-1 or greater in their last pre-Derby start are 0-for-79, with just four in-the-money
finishes, in the Run for the Roses.
2022 qualifiers: Un Ojo, Summer Is Tomorrow, Happy Jack, Pioneer of Medina, Rich Strike, Skippylongstocking, and Golden
Glider.
Only one horse — Big Brown (2008) — with 8 Quirin Speed Points has won the Kentucky Derby since 1992.
2022 qualifiers: Classic Causeway, Early Voting, Messier, and Pioneer of Medina.
No horse with fewer than three lifetime starts has ever won the Kentucky Derby.
2022 qualifiers: Taiba.
Since 1992, Derby entrants that recorded a poor LSR (-15 or less) in their last prep are 1-for-93 in the Derby (Mine That Bird, 2009).
However, they have produced a 19.5 percent ROI when bet to place.
2022 qualifiers: Crown Pride, Simplification, Classic Causeway, Un Ojo, Summer Is Tomorrow, Charge It, Happy Jack, and Bye
Bye Bobby.
Horses that lost running position from the first to second call in their final prep are just 1-for-64 in the Kentucky Derby since 1997, returning
an average of just two quarters and a penny for every $2 bet to win.
2022 qualifiers: Zandon, Classic Causeway, Un Ojo, Happy Jack, In Due Time, and Ethereal Road.
Horses that gained at least one running position from the first to second call have won nine of the last 29 renewals of the Run for the
Roses, returning $2.63 for every two bucks bet to win.
2022 qualifiers: White Abarrio, Mo Donegal, Tiz the Bomb, Cyberknife, Tawny Port, Barber Road, Rattle N Roll, and
Skippylongstocking.
Over the past 30 years, horses that met or exceeded the Derby pace par (-10 ESR) in their last start went on to win the roses five times
(in 46 attempts), producing a 106.5 percent ROI.
2022 qualifiers: Summer Is Tomorrow and Bye Bye Bobby.
In the past 30 years, six horses (of 40) won the Kentucky Derby after recording an LSR of -5 or greater and an ESR of less than 0 in their
final prep, producing profits across the board.
2022 qualifiers: Epicenter, Tiz the Bomb, Early Voting, and Zozos.
Horses that went to post at 5-1 odds or greater in their debut have produced a 30.9 percent ROI to place since 1992.
2022 qualifiers: Epicenter, Zandon, White Abarrio, Mo Donegal, Tiz the Bomb, Crown Pride, Simplification, Classic Causeway,
Barber Road, Un Ojo, Summer Is Tomorrow, Happy Jack, Ethereal Road, Rattle N Roll, and Skippylongstocking
| Can Win | Can hit Exacta | Can Only hit Tri | Can Only hit Super |
| 3- Epicenter | 1- Mo Donegal | 8- Charge It | 2- Happy Jack |
| 12- Taiba | 5- Smile Happy | 15- White Abbarrio | 7- Crown Pride |
| 6- Messier | 11- Pioneer of Medina | 16- Cyberknife | 13- Simplification |
| 10- Zandon | 19- Zozos | ||
| 9- Tiz the Bomb |
Some interesting stats to chew on to start.
Horses with a form rating of less than 50% are 1-for-123 in the Derby over the past 30 years. The only winner — Country House (2019)
— got the victory via disqualification.
2022 qualifiers: Classic Causeway, Un Ojo, Charge It, Rich Strike, Golden Glider, and Rattle N Roll.
Derby entrants that recorded a positive last-race ESR (+1 or greater) are 3-for-126 since 1992. Sea Hero (1993), Thunder Gulch (1995), and Street Sense (2007) were the three winners.
2022 qualifiers: Zandon, Mo Donegal, Happy Jack, Rich Strike, Rattle N Roll, and Skippylongstocking.
Since 1992, horses that went to post at odds of 15-1 or greater in their last pre-Derby start are 0-for-79, with just four in-the-money
finishes, in the Run for the Roses.
2022 qualifiers: Un Ojo, Summer Is Tomorrow, Happy Jack, Pioneer of Medina, Rich Strike, Skippylongstocking, and Golden
Glider.
Only one horse — Big Brown (2008) — with 8 Quirin Speed Points has won the Kentucky Derby since 1992.
2022 qualifiers: Classic Causeway, Early Voting, Messier, and Pioneer of Medina.
No horse with fewer than three lifetime starts has ever won the Kentucky Derby.
2022 qualifiers: Taiba.
Since 1992, Derby entrants that recorded a poor LSR (-15 or less) in their last prep are 1-for-93 in the Derby (Mine That Bird, 2009).
However, they have produced a 19.5 percent ROI when bet to place.
2022 qualifiers: Crown Pride, Simplification, Classic Causeway, Un Ojo, Summer Is Tomorrow, Charge It, Happy Jack, and Bye
Bye Bobby.
Horses that lost running position from the first to second call in their final prep are just 1-for-64 in the Kentucky Derby since 1997, returning
an average of just two quarters and a penny for every $2 bet to win.
2022 qualifiers: Zandon, Classic Causeway, Un Ojo, Happy Jack, In Due Time, and Ethereal Road.
Horses that gained at least one running position from the first to second call have won nine of the last 29 renewals of the Run for the
Roses, returning $2.63 for every two bucks bet to win.
2022 qualifiers: White Abarrio, Mo Donegal, Tiz the Bomb, Cyberknife, Tawny Port, Barber Road, Rattle N Roll, and
Skippylongstocking.
Over the past 30 years, horses that met or exceeded the Derby pace par (-10 ESR) in their last start went on to win the roses five times
(in 46 attempts), producing a 106.5 percent ROI.
2022 qualifiers: Summer Is Tomorrow and Bye Bye Bobby.
In the past 30 years, six horses (of 40) won the Kentucky Derby after recording an LSR of -5 or greater and an ESR of less than 0 in their
final prep, producing profits across the board.
2022 qualifiers: Epicenter, Tiz the Bomb, Early Voting, and Zozos.
Horses that went to post at 5-1 odds or greater in their debut have produced a 30.9 percent ROI to place since 1992.
2022 qualifiers: Epicenter, Zandon, White Abarrio, Mo Donegal, Tiz the Bomb, Crown Pride, Simplification, Classic Causeway,
Barber Road, Un Ojo, Summer Is Tomorrow, Happy Jack, Ethereal Road, Rattle N Roll, and Skippylongstocking
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