2025 Hawkeyes' Expected All-Americans

[wrestleknownothing]

Using Intermat pre-season rankings (which have Kennedy starting over Arnold at 174) and historical performance versus seeds I developed a model for predicting the number of All-Americans.

I have the Hawkeyes at 4.68. I know, I know. You are taking the over.

First let's look at the history of seed performance. Based on 2014 to 2024 results (the 16 seed and 33 seed eras) the current Hawkeyes have the following probabilities of winding up on the podium (assuming current Intermat rank = ultimate NCAA seed):



Using those probabilities we can also look at the number of expected AAs at the team level. Will the Hawkeyes get 0? 1? 2? 3? 4? 5? 6? 7? or 8? AAs? I am glad you asked:



So, if I had to guess right now I would set the over/under on Hawkeye AA's at 4.5 and lean to the over.

Data tables are boring. Let's look at a graph:



Now, tell me all the ways I am wrong.

 

[BigTenHawkeye]

So...maybe I don't understand your metrics...but it sure looks like the number should be 5.5...

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

So...maybe I don't understand your metrics...but it sure looks like the number should be 5.5...

I’m with you…looks like the top of the bell curve is 5.5.

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

Using Intermat pre-season rankings (which have Kennedy starting over Arnold at 174) and historical performance versus seeds I developed a model for predicting the number of All-Americans.

I have the Hawkeyes at 4.68. I know, I know. You are taking the over.

First let's look at the history of seed performance. Based on 2014 to 2024 results (the 16 seed and 33 seed eras) the current Hawkeyes have the following probabilities of winding up on the podium (assuming current Intermat rank = ultimate NCAA seed):



Using those probabilities we can also look at the number of expected AAs at the team level. Will the Hawkeyes get 0? 1? 2? 3? 4? 5? 6? 7? or 8? AAs? I am glad you asked:



So, if I had to guess right now I would set the over/under on Hawkeye AA's at 4.5 and lean to the over.

Data tables are boring. Let's look at a graph:



Now, tell me all the ways I am wrong.

Brother, I appreciate all the work you put into this. That said if the Hawks don’t have either 7 or 8 AAs with this lineup the natives will be growing very very restless. And even with DT taking over at Okie state if this Hawks team finishes any worse than 2nd this year that will be a huge letdown and a huge hit to our program. Of course all of this is barring injuries. We need to make it happen THIS year.

 

[ChiPackHawk]

I see 8. Ayala 3-6, Parco 2-4, Teemer 1-3, Caliendo 2-4, Arnold/Kennedy 5-8, Brands 2-4, Buchanan 1-3, Kueter 6-8.

125 - 0-2
Block - 2-2

 

[wrestleknownothing]

So...maybe I don't understand your metrics...but it sure looks like the number should be 5.5...

It is the nature of a distribution with a skinny right tail that the mean is further left than it appears, especially since I show all the categories, even if they are not possible. With only 8 wrestlers in the top 33, 9 and 10 AA are not currently possible. you can check my math with the data table that I posted, but the weighted average is 4.68 even though it looks like it should be between 5 and 6.

Mind you, this is a pure probablistic approach. I would expect any fan to find it needlessly pessimistic. The fan's job is to concentrate on best case scenarios (which is how they get you in Vegas).

 

[MSU158]

A few key factors not considered that should definitely bump up the percentages for several guys:

1.) What percentage of Finalists AA the next season they compete? (Ayala, Teemer)
2.) What percentage of 2 for 2 AA's AA the next season?(Caliendo)
2.) What percentage of 3 for 3(4 for 4 for Parco) AA's AA the next season they compete?(Parco, Teemer and Buchanan)
3.) Does the percentage go up when the last couple finishes were top 5? (Parco, Teemer and Buchanan) Do they go up even more when those finishes were top 3? (Buchanan)
4.) What percentage of 5th place finishers AA the following season?(Brands)
5.) What percentage of Age Level World Medalists AA their first competitive season?(Kueter)
6.) What percentage of Ale Level World Team Members AA their first competitive season(Arnold)

7.) What percentage of wrestlers named Ryder Block and Kale Peterson AA their first competitive season?.............

 

[wrestleknownothing]

A few key factors not considered that should definitely bump up the percentages for several guys:

1.) What percentage of Finalists AA the next season they compete? (Ayala, Teemer)
2.) What percentage of 2 for 2 AA's AA the next season?(Caliendo)
2.) What percentage of 3 for 3(4 for 4 for Parco) AA's AA the next season they compete?(Parco, Teemer and Buchanan)
3.) Does the percentage go up when the last couple finishes were top 5? (Parco, Teemer and Buchanan) Do they go up even more when those finishes were top 3? (Buchanan)
4.) What percentage of 5th place finishers AA the following season?(Brands)
5.) What percentage of Age Level World Medalists AA their first competitive season?(Kueter)
6.) What percentage of Ale Level World Team Members AA their first competitive season(Arnold)

7.) What percentage of wrestlers named Ryder Block and Kale Peterson AA their first competitive season?.............

I only have the answer to question 7. Historically, zero. So I am good so far on 9 and 10 AA's.

The other 6 questions are good questions, I will see if I can answer any of them. My guess is that it is perhaps higher than for the group of all, but probably not as high as you want it to be.

 

[ZachJump]

Ava Bayless
Kennedy Blades
Karlee Brooks
Nanea Estrella
Jaycee Foeller
Brianna Gonzalez
Emilie Gonzalez
Macey Kilty
Reese Larramendy
Katja Osteen
Sky Realin
Nyla Valencia
Kyle Welker


....and probably two of these...White, Cass, Haley, Simon, Frost, Rose, etc

 

[PSU Mike]

Using Intermat pre-season rankings (which have Kennedy starting over Arnold at 174) and historical performance versus seeds I developed a model for predicting the number of All-Americans.

I have the Hawkeyes at 4.68. I know, I know. You are taking the over.

First let's look at the history of seed performance. Based on 2014 to 2024 results (the 16 seed and 33 seed eras) the current Hawkeyes have the following probabilities of winding up on the podium (assuming current Intermat rank = ultimate NCAA seed):



Using those probabilities we can also look at the number of expected AAs at the team level. Will the Hawkeyes get 0? 1? 2? 3? 4? 5? 6? 7? or 8? AAs? I am glad you asked:



So, if I had to guess right now I would set the over/under on Hawkeye AA's at 4.5 and lean to the over.

Data tables are boring. Let's look at a graph:



Now, tell me all the ways I am wrong.

Your probabilities need to sum to 1.

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

A few key factors not considered that should definitely bump up the percentages for several guys:

1.) What percentage of Finalists AA the next season they compete? (Ayala, Teemer)
2.) What percentage of 2 for 2 AA's AA the next season?(Caliendo)
2.) What percentage of 3 for 3(4 for 4 for Parco) AA's AA the next season they compete?(Parco, Teemer and Buchanan)
3.) Does the percentage go up when the last couple finishes were top 5? (Parco, Teemer and Buchanan) Do they go up even more when those finishes were top 3? (Buchanan)
4.) What percentage of 5th place finishers AA the following season?(Brands)
5.) What percentage of Age Level World Medalists AA their first competitive season?(Kueter)
6.) What percentage of Ale Level World Team Members AA their first competitive season(Arnold)

7.) What percentage of wrestlers named Ryder Block and Kale Peterson AA their first competitive season?.............

7 is the biggie!

 

[wrestleknownothing]

Your probabilities need to sum to 1.

That sure would come in handy.

Hey, good news everyone. I found another AA in the seat cushions. It must have slipped out when I was asleep at the switch.

How does 5.4 AA's sound? I already now the answer.

Sadly, postimage is not working for me now, so hear is any ugly table.

Number of AA's	Hawkeyes' AA Probability
0	0.000286%​
1	0.024%​
2	0.5%​
3	4.4%​
4	16.9%​
5	31.8%​
6	30.2%​
7	13.8%​
8	2.3%​
9	0.0%​
10	0.0%​
Expected	5.37​

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

That sure would come in handy.

Hey, good news everyone. I found another AA in the seat cushions. It must have slipped out when I was asleep at the switch.

How does 5.4 AA's sound? I already now the answer.

Sadly, postimage is not working for me now, so hear is any ugly table.

Number of AA's	Hawkeyes' AA Probability
0	0.000286%​
1	0.024%​
2	0.5%​
3	4.4%​
4	16.9%​
5	31.8%​
6	30.2%​
7	13.8%​
8	2.3%​
9	0.0%​
10	0.0%​
Expected	5.37​

Please run PSU AND Okie and see what you have. Thank you.

 

[wrestleknownothing]

A few key factors not considered that should definitely bump up the percentages for several guys:

1.) What percentage of Finalists AA the next season they compete? (Ayala, Teemer)
2.) What percentage of 2 for 2 AA's AA the next season?(Caliendo)
2.) What percentage of 3 for 3(4 for 4 for Parco) AA's AA the next season they compete?(Parco, Teemer and Buchanan)
3.) Does the percentage go up when the last couple finishes were top 5? (Parco, Teemer and Buchanan) Do they go up even more when those finishes were top 3? (Buchanan)
4.) What percentage of 5th place finishers AA the following season?(Brands)
5.) What percentage of Age Level World Medalists AA their first competitive season?(Kueter)
6.) What percentage of Ale Level World Team Members AA their first competitive season(Arnold)

7.) What percentage of wrestlers named Ryder Block and Kale Peterson AA their first competitive season?.............

The answer to question one surprised me.

Using the same time period (2014 - 2024) and counting up the number of wrestlers who returned in 2015 - 2024 after being in the finals the year before, I found 80 wrestlers who fit that description. Those 80 wrestlers had 117 total seasons where they returned the following season after being in the finals the prior season (for example, Spencer Lee had three such seasons). In those 117 attempts to AA after being in the final the prior season only 104, or 88.9%, got the job done.

Shockingly, that is less than the general level of 2 seeds, never mind 1 seeds. But I am guessing you will not want to handicap Iowa's chances based on that.

 

[wrestleknownothing]

Please run PSU AND Okie and see what you have. Thank you.

PSU is at 6.6
Oklahoma State is at 4.1

 

[NLhawk62]

Anything less than 6 AAs would be a massive disappointment with this squad.

 

[IRONBIRD]

I will take the OVER for EVERY skool you listed!!! How is $100 each sound?

 

[hawkeye54545]

 

[edquinn06]

Order of AA confidence
1. Cali- clear #2
2. Teemer- done it multiple times and weight isn’t great
3. Buchanan- see #2 comments
4. Parco- has done it multiple times and has beat the top guys at the weigh
5. Brands- has AA but at 174. Has wins over the top guys
6. Ayala-133 is a real good weight. He should do very well but I wanna see him beat a few of the top guys
7. Arnold-lower on the list cause he just hasn’t done it yet and has no significant wins against this field
8. Kueter- see #7 comments. I’ll add that he is small for the weight
9. Block- let’s see how he is after injury and having a year off.
10. Petersen- let’s see how he handles the weight

 

[UndercoverHawk]

Order of AA confidence
1. Cali- clear #2
2. Teemer- done it multiple times and weight isn’t great
3. Buchanan- see #2 comments
4. Parco- has done it multiple times and has beat the top guys at the weigh
5. Brands- has AA but at 174. Has wins over the top guys
6. Ayala-133 is a real good weight. He should do very well but I wanna see him beat a few of the top guys
7. Arnold-lower on the list cause he just hasn’t done it yet and has no significant wins against this field
8. Kueter- see #7 comments. I’ll add that he is small for the weight
9. Block- let’s see how he is after injury and having a year off.
10. Petersen- let’s see how he handles the weight

Not that I’m disagreeing with the order of the list, but I’m disagreeing with your statement on Arnold. He had wins over a 2x AA (that almost died and couldn’t compete at NCAAs), the guy that took 6th, and an AA up a weight last year. He had significant wins and specifically the Wolak win is against this field. And that was just last year. He’s beaten the guy that was the runner up multiple times through their careers.

 

[edquinn06]

Not that I’m disagreeing with the order of the list, but I’m disagreeing with your statement on Arnold. He had wins over a 2x AA (that almost died and couldn’t compete at NCAAs), the guy that took 6th, and an AA up a weight last year. He had significant wins and specifically the Wolak win is against this field. And that was just last year. He’s beaten the guy that was the runner up multiple times through their careers.

I hear ya.

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

PSU is at 6.6
Oklahoma State is at 4.1

Thank you. That makes me feel a little better.

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

Order of AA confidence
1. Cali- clear #2
2. Teemer- done it multiple times and weight isn’t great
3. Buchanan- see #2 comments
4. Parco- has done it multiple times and has beat the top guys at the weigh
5. Brands- has AA but at 174. Has wins over the top guys
6. Ayala-133 is a real good weight. He should do very well but I wanna see him beat a few of the top guys
7. Arnold-lower on the list cause he just hasn’t done it yet and has no significant wins against this field
8. Kueter- see #7 comments. I’ll add that he is small for the weight
9. Block- let’s see how he is after injury and having a year off.
10. Petersen- let’s see how he handles the weight

Excellent assessment!

 

[wrestleknownothing]

I will take the OVER for EVERY skool you listed!!! How is $100 each sound?

It is an interesting question. If I were making betting lines, instead of just telling you what Intermat pre-season rankings imply, what would they be?

For starters I would add at least one to each of PSU and Iowa to account for the freshmen who are not yet ranked.

 

[el dub]

It is an interesting question. If I were making betting lines, instead of just telling you what Intermat pre-season rankings imply, what would they be?

For starters I would add at least one to each of PSU and Iowa to account for the freshmen who are not yet ranked.

Moving the goal posts a bit, innit?

 

[wrestleknownothing]

Moving the goal posts a bit, innit?

Not at all. I never said I was making markets.

 

[el dub]

Not at all. I never said I was making markets.

I must have been overwhelmed. There was reality, and then IRONBIRD came along with his version of reality before you came along with probably the most sensible answer.

 

[Trapper85]

That sure would come in handy.

Hey, good news everyone. I found another AA in the seat cushions. It must have slipped out when I was asleep at the switch.

How does 5.4 AA's sound? I already now the answer.

Sadly, postimage is not working for me now, so hear is any ugly table.

Number of AA's	Hawkeyes' AA Probability
0	0.000286%​
1	0.024%​
2	0.5%​
3	4.4%​
4	16.9%​
5	31.8%​
6	30.2%​
7	13.8%​
8	2.3%​
9	0.0%​
10	0.0%​
Expected	5.37​

I'd recommend a 95% confidence interval for the expected AAs. That will do alot to cover/comfort both the pessimists and the optimists (maybe even go with an 83% CI to cover more opinions). I'd also recommend a nonparametric bootstrapped CI since Iowa is rural with alot of boot enthusiasts.

 

[bourbon n blues]

It is an interesting question. If I were making betting lines, instead of just telling you what Intermat pre-season rankings imply, what would they be?

For starters I would add at least one to each of PSU and Iowa to account for the freshmen who are not yet ranked.

Lilledahl is most likely going to AA at a minimum , barring injuries of course . So 7 or more is probably accurate .

 

[Birky]

Cool graph.

I didn’t read close enough to see if it’s explained, but unless Iowa isn’t fielding two weights this year, there is definitely a glitch in the formula if 9/10 AAs is considered impossible.

I can only assume there is no data for wrestlers who have not wrestled a match?

 

[AndEEss]

Cool graph.

I didn’t read close enough to see if it’s explained, but unless Iowa isn’t fielding two weights this year, there is definitely a glitch in the formula if 9/10 AAs is considered impossible.

I can only assume there is no data for wrestlers who have not wrestled a match?

Your 125 and 141 have very limited data. 4-3 and 0-0 last year for Peterson and Block, respectively. The inputs feed the model, and the inputs aren't exactly robust.

The same applies for PSU's Luke Lilledahl; I'd expect him to blow the doors off of all but the top 3-4 125s but there's no data on him. He's the best U20 57kg in the world, but hasn't wrestled an NCAA folkstyle match. Therefore, nothing on paper to support making him the N + 1 AA for Penn State.

Similarly, it's why an ELO system like WrestleStat makes some... interesting predictions. It's only as good as the inputs AND the model. No one in their right mind takes Kale Peterson over Lilledahl by TF, but WS can only use what's available. The "eye test" doesn't matter to it.

 

[wrestlingfan22]

Cool graph.

I didn’t read close enough to see if it’s explained, but unless Iowa isn’t fielding two weights this year, there is definitely a glitch in the formula if 9/10 AAs is considered impossible.

I can only assume there is no data for wrestlers who have not wrestled a match?

The seeds were based off the current rankings. Iowa having only 8 ranked wrestlers= only 8 NQs = max of 8 AAs

 

[Random4598375]

Your 125 and 141 have very limited data. 4-3 and 0-0 last year for Peterson and Block, respectively. The inputs feed the model, and the inputs aren't exactly robust.

The same applies for PSU's Luke Lilledahl; I'd expect him to blow the doors off of all but the top 3-4 125s but there's no data on him. He's the best U20 57kg in the world, but hasn't wrestled an NCAA folkstyle match. Therefore, nothing on paper to support making him the N + 1 AA for Penn State.

Similarly, it's why an ELO system like WrestleStat makes some... interesting predictions. It's only as good as the inputs AND the model. No one in their right mind takes Kale Peterson over Lilledahl by TF, but WS can only use what's available. The "eye test" doesn't matter to it.

If PSU's starting lineup is:

125 Lilledahl
133 Davis/Nagao
141 Bartlett
149 Van Ness
157 Kasak
165 Mesenbrink
174 Haines
184 Starocci
197 Barr
HWT Kerkvliet

Barring injuries, all 10 are at least 50/50 to AA with 8 virtual locks and 50/50 chances at 133 and 197, so given that it's unlikely any team goes injury free, I'd set the over/under for them at 8.5 to start the season.

 

[WildTurk]

They can't just come here and talk about Iowa wrestling can they. Like clockwork, we get a another run down of Penn State's lineup. As if we don't already know they have a roster full of top recruits.

 

[Muscles1989]

125 I’d say no due to no experience yet
133 yes
141 same as 125
149-165 yes
174 pk hasn’t put it together, GB not been there
184 brands should but been off a long time, and his style asks to be upset randomly
197 yes
Hwt BK has the resume but again pretty untested

6 seems achievable, I wouldn’t be shocked at 5, 7+ and I’d be harder than a diamond in an ice storm

 

[Random4598375]

They can't just come here and talk about Iowa wrestling can they. Like clockwork, we get a another run down of Penn State's lineup. As if we don't already know they have a roster full of top recruits.

Ok, if Iowa's lineup is:

125 Peterson
133 Ayala
141 Block
149 Parco
157 Teemer
165 Caliendo
174 Arnold
184 Brand
197 Buchanan
HWT Kueter

I'd definitely take the over on 5.5 AAs. I think Ayala, Parco, Teemer, Cali, Arnold, and Buchanan are all very likely to make it and that's 6 right there already. The others, especially Brand and Kueter, have a chance, too, so I'd guess 7 with the 6 I listed plus one. Kueter is definitely an AA caliber wrestler, but HWT is actually pretty deep this year, and he may be a little undersized.

 

[GableBeer]

Kueter is definitely an AA caliber wrestler, but HWT is actually pretty deep this year, and he may be a little undersized.

Undersized compared to Kerk, Hendrickson, and Schultz, but he’s coming in the same size (Weight) as Bastida/Feldman. I think Kueter will place between 4-6, he has shown that despite being smaller the big guys still cannot horse him around.

 

[Random4598375]

Undersized compared to Kerk, Hendrickson, and Schultz, but he’s coming in the same size (Weight) as Bastida/Feldman. I think Kueter will place between 4-6, he has shown that despite being smaller the big guys still cannot horse him around.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him place around there. He has the talent. I just want to see him on the mat a little more before I lock it in.

 

[GableBeer]

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him place around there. He has the talent. I just want to see him on the mat a little more before I lock it in.

Absolutely, his match against Masoumi gave me a lot of confidence. We will find out quick how good Kueter is with ISU being the 3rd week of the season.

 

[wrestleknownothing]

If PSU's starting lineup is:

125 Lilledahl
133 Davis/Nagao
141 Bartlett
149 Van Ness
157 Kasak
165 Mesenbrink
174 Haines
184 Starocci
197 Barr
HWT Kerkvliet

Barring injuries, all 10 are at least 50/50 to AA with 8 virtual locks and 50/50 chances at 133 and 197, so given that it's unlikely any team goes injury free, I'd set the over/under for them at 8.5 to start the season.

And yet, last year with 10 guys seeded 10th or better, they only had 8 AA's. There are no locks. Braeden Davis as a 1 seed did not AA.