22% Chance Iowa makes CFP

[OnceAhawk]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF 8:10 PM NOV 10, 2015

Our Updated College Football Playoff Odds For Week 11
By JAY BOICE, REUBEN FISCHER-BAUM and ANDREW FLOWERS

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/updated-college-football-playoff-odds-november-10/

Clemson is sitting pretty at the top spot. Alabama leapfrogged Ohio State to be No. 2. While LSU and TCU slipped, Iowa and Stanford made big leaps.

So go the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Were the selection committee to form a playoff this week, its top four would be Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and Notre Dame.

But who cares about this week?

Let’s fast-forward to Dec. 6, when the final decision on this year’s playoff participants will be announced.

Our model simulated the rest of the season, and the results are in the table below.

In summary, the Probability of

Conf Title...Playoff....Natl Title....Team
67................67..........17............Clemson
44................56..........15............Ohio State
35................43..........12............Alabama
34................31..........12............Baylor
_______________________________________________

0.................30.............8..............Notre Dame
52...............28.............6..............Stanford
38...............23.............5..............Ok State
28...............22.............2..............Iowa
19...............17.............7..............Oklahoma
38............. .17.............3..............Florida


We project that three of the top four teams from this week will make the playoff, but we expect Baylor to surpass Notre Dame. It’s no guarantee, though; the Bears will play three games against top 15 teams — including a big one against Oklahoma on Saturday — so their playoff odds are only 31 percent.

Another big change in our model since last week: Clemson has a lock on the No. 1 ranking. After gritting out a tough win over Florida State last week, the Tigers’ playoff odds are at 67 percent, with a 17 percent chance of taking the national title. Both numbers top all other teams. Ohio State has the second-highest odds of making the playoffs; the model put them at 56 percent. Alabama, fresh off an impressive win over LSU, has playoff odds of 43 percent.

And finally, for you methodology diehards, we’ve made some slight tweaks to the model since last week. You can read about them here. For a deeper explanation, read Nate Silver’s original explanation of the model’s methodology.

 

[Suterman]

Very interesting. It sure is fun being in the discussion.

 

[HawkAttackDial911]

2% to win the title!!! Yeah Baby!!!

 

[naturalmwa]

How is it more likely that Ohio St. and Alabama would make the playoffs than win their conference?Are there real ways Ohio St. or Alabama loses their conferance game and still gets in? That's not making sense to me.

 

[doughawk]

So their's a chance !

 

[Omahawkeyeguy]

How is it more likely that Ohio St. and Alabama would make the playoffs than win their conference?Are there real ways Ohio St. or Alabama loses their conferance game and still gets in? That's not making sense to me.

There are some plausible ways Alabama or OSU could get into the playoffs without winning their conferences. A lot of things would likely have to happen, and it doesn't say 'if they lose their conference game' just that they are not conference champions. OSU could lose to MSU and not even make it to the conference championship, then if there was pandemonium and very few 1 or zero loss teams remain, especially among conference champions, they would still be in the mix. Or say Iowa drops a couple of their final games and then either Iowa or Wisky goes to Indy and knocks off OSU. Then maybe a 1 loss OSU is a more attractive candidate for the playoff than a 2 loss B1G champ. Most of these scenarios are not highly likely, but that is why the probability is only slightly higher as well.

 

[BioHawk]

Sounds about right. Iowa still has a lot of work ahead of them just to get to the CCG with a chance to make the playoffs. Plenty of opportunities to lose focus and slip up. That number should continue to get higher with every win and then reflect the 3-7 point underdog spread that would exist in an undefeated Iowa v. Ohio State game.

 

[silasstarr]

I'd say OSU has a harder road than Iowa at this point.

 

[revkev73]

Only teams with a chance can win the national title...time to shine Hawks...

 

[Wrigley-Hawkeye]

The math is much simpler than that. If we win out = 100% if we lose one game = 0%

 

[BeepBeepInMyJeep]

I don't put much stock in these. In August, what were our chances of a 9-0 start?

 

[2for3]

Ohio state and Iowa in the Big 10 title game....do not think Ohio st. is winning in Ann arbor

 

[Hawk and Awe]

Their math finally makes sense to me. The last couple weeks I think we were around 25% to win the conference but 8% to make the playoff.

Might've just been the odds of us losing a regular season game have gone down? I just thought those 2 numbers should be closer

 

[1971hawkeye]

I'll take those odds. Should go up as we get closer.

 

[acic1]

Beathard will lead us to the promised land.

http://imgur.com/wTFa8p4

 

[yerpHAWK]

better than the -22% we had at the start of the season

 

[Herkmeister]

How is it more likely that Ohio St. and Alabama would make the playoffs than win their conference?Are there real ways Ohio St. or Alabama loses their conferance game and still gets in? That's not making sense to me.

Your IQ is too high. Quit looking at it logically.