Harris will beat Trump, says election prediction legend Allan Lichtman
Allan Lichtman predicted that Trump would defeat then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 and that President Joe Biden would beat Trump in 2020.
Allan Lichtman—the Nostradamus of predicting presidential elections—has spoken
- Thread starter RagnarLothbrok
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Honestly though, outside of 2000 and 2016, has it really been that hard to predict the outcomes?
Whenever Republicans win it is hard to predict…electoral college really blurs predictable outcomes…. And popular vote-wise, Republicans are trending as a minority party (they have won once in the last 8 “general elections”).
Not that I think that way, or that you do. But enough people are drawn to the character that is Trump. That's what Trumpism is, the character part. Interpretive. Not objective.
I think he's a jackass. By he's a pretty good performer and knows how to work his crowd. Of course he's not a national hero the way we usually think of them. But he's also worshiped by way too many people.
So he may be capturing the qualities that gives you item 11 in his list. It's just not universal.
At any rate... He's a weird character that breaks traditional analysis
Trump doesn't have charisma. He is a bully and buffoon.
His “crowd” is already sold on him and they’re willing to get worked by someone who just says things they wish they could shout. Is he drawing new people to his rallies? Doubtful.
This may have been true in 16. But definitely isn't true now. Everyone is bored when he speaks. He never had policy. But now he isn't even entertaining. Even his supporters start playing on their phones when he talks.
I agree to a large extent, but Trump is a cult leader and frankly an idiot. He’s reached his ceiling for winning adoration. A charismatic leader actually has the capacity to continuously widen his tent of support. Trump doesn’t.
Hence why I agree with Lichtman’s assessment of #11.
Wasn’t Nate Silver supposed to be the genius on this until he wasn’t? I may have that name wrong.
2020 was pretty close and 2012 was fairly close as well.
2016 actually most predicted to go the other way so getting 2016 right gives him strong legitimacy.
The biggest issue with him is he had gotten a little too high on his system to the point where he doesn't take into account things his system can't measure. There was no way Biden was gonna win re-election after the debate but he was advocating the guy stay in the race due to his incumbency advantage key.
I don't care what your system is, when it comes to something as complex as an election you have to at least admit that there are factors the system cannot account for.
Supposedly, Nate Silver has been off lately.
Lichtman has gotten every one right since 1984.
Well, yeah, it’s not an exact science, but his formula has been pretty solid so far.
Getting 2000 and 2016 correct is pretty impressive.
He actually got 2000 wrong. He attempted to say he was only predicting the popular vote until 2016 when he predicted Trump would win and then said that he is predicting the EC winner.
I think the news media says 8 of 9 because they are not giving him 2000.
Well he did brave his own personal Viet Nam, wading through that sea of STD's in Manhattan. That was pretty heroic.
To be fair, until 2000 it had just been assumed that the winner of the popular vote wins the election, only politics nerds thought about the electoral college. The whole legend about Mayor Daley delivering the 1960 election for Kennedy was based on popular vote, Kennedy didn't need Illinois to win the election.
It was assumed it would be an automatic constitutional crisis if the popular vote winner didn't win the electoral college if it happened in the modern age.
I remember Pat Caddell (a top Carter campaign guy in 76) talking on some news show decades ago about how the Carter campaign in 1976 was sweating out the results in Mississippi late on election night/morning because that state would put them over the top in the electoral college, everyone else had taken it as a given that Carter had won hrs and hrs before because it was obvious he had won the popular vote.
I could find a pony that predicts elections as well as this guy. Yes, I think Harris is going to win. But this guy is far from nostradamus
I must have misread it. I thought he had been right since 1984.
Frankly, the 2000 election was the most bizarre one ever, so I won’t fault him for that.
Shit, outside of 2000 and 2016, they were all easy calls. So at that point, it is a flip of the coin. I've listened to him talk. He is overrated
I don’t think 2020 or 2012 were slam dunks. I don’t think 1992 was either.
1984 was obviously the easiest. 1988 was easy peazy too. Perhaps 1996 and 2008 were pretty probable who would win.
I don’t know. I think his model is pretty interesting and accurate.
There was no way way Dole was winning in 1996. As much as I liked McCain, Obama had 2008 in the bag weeks before election.
Obama years were definitely easy calls. Same with Clinton. Same with Reagan. 24 out of the last 44 years have been calls anybody could make.
The Republicans really thought they were going to win in 2012 and I was extremely nervous about it the night before even though Obama was up 3-4 points in the polls. It was a much easier path for Dems in 2012 because the toss-up states were places like Ohio, Florida, and Iowa. The Blue Wall states (Wisconsin, Pennyslvania, Michigan) weren't really in doubt.
That's what sucks about this year. Harris may have a similar national lead in the polls as Obama by election day and may even out-perform Obama as far as national popular vote margin, but she has a much more difficult path to actually getting elected.
I think that is where the model is a little grey. I believe the assumption is "wide agreement on topic X". Trump has a portion of folks saying Afghanistan was a total failure, Trump is charismatic, etc. What portion agree with the statement has a ceiling and he isn't bringing in many new. Or if he is, he is driving away more than he brings in.
On the other hand, Harris is probably still the favorite to win the election today 09/07/2024.
