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Among LIKELY VOTERS, Biden leads Trump by just 3.9% (44.5%-40.6%) in Dark Blue Minnesota. Margin of Error is +/-3.5%

Franisdaman

HR King
Nov 3, 2012
86,490
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Heaven, Iowa
As you will read, one undecided independent voter cited the Israel-Hamas war as his most important issue and said he disagrees with how the U.S. has dealt with it.

And remember the Muslim "abandon Biden" campaign that a lot of people laughed at?

And for those who think these polls are useless? From the story: Trump came within about 1.5 percentage points of winning MN in 2016. Four years later, Trump lost Minnesota by about 7 percentage points. That result was in line with a Minnesota poll conducted in September 2020, which had Biden ahead of Trump by 6 percentage points.

Today's story from the Minneapolis Star Tribune:

Minnesota Poll: Biden holds narrow lead over Trump, but GOP voters are more enthusiastic

Biden leads Trump 45%-41% in Minnesota, according to a new Minneapolis Star Tribune/Minnesota Public Radio News/KARE 11 (Minneapolis NBC affiliate) poll.

By Ryan Faircloth
Minneapolis Star Tribune
JUNE 10, 2024 — 5:00AM

SYYSIEQI4BEDHJEIQWO4WUDC3E.jpg




President Joe Biden holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in Minnesota, but his supporters are less enthusiastic than the Republican's, according to a new poll taken five months out from Election Day.

The Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll found Biden with a 45%-41% lead over Trump ahead of their anticipated general election rematch. 7% of respondents said they were undecided and 6% supported independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The poll's findings are based on interviews with 800 likely Minnesota voters conducted from June 3 to June 5. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Biden's lead over Trump is driven largely by a 45-point advantage in Hennepin (includes Minneapolis) and Ramsey (includes St Paul) counties. Trump leads everywhere else, including in other counties of the Twin Cities area, where he was up 12 percentage points.

Rosalee Byington, a 75-year-old Biden supporter from Circle Pines, said she sees the Democratic president as someone who is "caring about the United States and our democracy."

"With Donald Trump, he just appalls me in that he thinks that he can just get away with everything," Byington said. "[He thinks] he isn't guilty, and he isn't responsible, and he doesn't have to accept the felonies."

Q: If the 2024 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat; Donald Trump, the Republican; Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent; or someone else?

45%: Biden
41%: Trump
6%: Kennedy
7%: Undecided
1%: Other
Source: Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll, June 3-5, 2024; 800 Minn. likely voters; +/-3.5% margin of error.


Byington is among just 31% of Biden backers who said they were "very enthusiastic" about supporting the president. The Democratic coalition in Minnesota and the U.S. has fractured over Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war, with many on the left bristling at his support for Israel and demanding he do more to prevent civilian deaths in Gaza. Few poll respondents, though, mentioned the war as their top issue.

In contrast, nearly two-thirds of Trump supporters said they were "very enthusiastic" about their candidate.

Q: How enthusiastic are you about your preferred presidential candidate this year?

Biden:
31%: Very
36%: Somewhat
28%: Not very
5%: Not at all


Trump:
62%: Very
21%: Somewhat
14%: Not very
4%: Not at all

Source: Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll, June 3-5, 2024; 800 Minn. likely voters; +/-3.5% margin of error.



No Republican presidential candidate has won Minnesota since 1972. But Trump has said he thinks he has a good chance of winning Minnesota this November.

The former president came within about 1.5 percentage points of winning the state in 2016. Four years later, Trump lost Minnesota by about 7 percentage points. That result was in line with a Minnesota poll conducted in September 2020, which had Biden ahead of Trump by 6 percentage points.

George Palke, an 81-year-old retired basketball coach from Roseville, is supporting Trump even though he said the former president is "obnoxious when he doesn't need to be." Palke said his top concern is the economy and he doesn't like Biden's policies.

"We have tremendous inflation. Things just keep going up and up and up. On a set income, as a retired person, that's really tough," Palke said. "There's got to be something that can be done to bring it back down a bit."

Minnesotans who were polled cited "protecting democracy," the economy and jobs, and immigration as their top three issues. Trump supporters cared most about the economy and immigration, while Biden voters listed protecting democracy and climate change as their two most important issues.

Women, nonwhite voters and college graduates favor Biden by large margins in the poll. Trump holds larger leads with men and people without college degrees. The two presidential candidates were nearly tied among white voters.

Trump had an edge with older voters while Biden garnered more support among Minnesotans under 50.

Among independents, Trump and Biden were effectively tied. Thirteen percent of independents said they would back Kennedy, and 12% were undecided.

Brandon Nelson, an autism therapist from St. Paul, said he is undecided on whom he will vote for. The 35-year-old independent voter said he can't see himself supporting Biden, Trump or Kennedy. He cited the Israel-Hamas war as his most important issue and said he disagrees with how the U.S. has dealt with it.

"I don't feel like the United States has shown any sort of moral leadership on that issue whatsoever," Nelson said. "The ongoing fighting and the thousands and thousands of civilian deaths cannot possibly be our best option."

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of Joe Biden’s job performance as president?


.....................Sep 2021...Sep 2022...Jun 2024
Disapprove......51%.........49%.............53%
Approve...........47%........46%.............46%

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance as president?

.....................Oct 2019...Sep 2020...Jun 2024
Disapprove......56%.........52%............52%
Approve...........40%........43%.............47%

Source: Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll, June 3-5, 2024; 800 Minn. likely voters; +/-3.5% margin of error.


A narrow majority of voters, 53%, said they disapproved of Biden's job performance. But 52% of voters said they also disapproved of Trump's performance as president.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar received a better review than the two presidential front-runners, with 55% of Minnesotans who were polled approving of her job performance and 36% disapproving.

But Klobuchar's approval rating is lower than when the Star Tribune last polled it in 2017. Her approval rating was 72% that year. Klobuchar is seeking a fourth term to the U.S. Senate in November.

Byington is among her supporters, calling Klobuchar "very consistent" and "a thorough example of a person that thinks well."

 
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in a "normal" election, Trump would get smoked

Bottom line is Biden will win in November; I just think undecideds will remember Trump's 4 years, hold their noses, and vote Biden
There is no such thing as a normal election. When Donald L. Ron Trump is on the ballot.
 
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Polls are completely meaningless right now. Kennedy is getting 10% of the vote in the Minnesota averages at the moment. There is near zero chance that happens.
 
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Is this the same deep blue Minnesota that voted for Trump once and GW twice? The same deep blue Minnesota that has voted for exactly 20 R's and 20 D's in presidential elections?

When it comes to presidential elections, Minnesota isn't even a light blue state. It is solidly purple.
 
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Is this the same deep blue Minnesota that voted for Trump once and GW twice? The same deep blue Minnesota that has voted for exactly 20 R's and 20 D's in presidential elections?

When it comes to presidential elections, Minnesota isn't even a light blue state. It is solidly purple.

No Republican presidential candidate has won Minnesota since 1972 (52 years ago)
 
Polls are completely meaningless right now. Kennedy is getting 10% of the vote in the Minnesota averages at the moment. There is near zero chance that happens.
Nobody likes joe biden. Reality is hard to accept sometimes I know, but kennedy is going to peel a lot of democrats from biden nationwide.
 
No Republican presidential candidate has won Minnesota since 1972 (52 years ago)
I stand corrected. At the same time less than 50,000 votes separated Trump and Hillary in 2016 which at 1.5% was closer than the polling shows today. It is a swing state much more akin to purple Wisconsin than it is to deep blue Illinois.
 
I stand corrected. At the same time less than 50,000 votes separated Trump and Hillary in 2016 which at 1.5% was closer than the polling shows today. It is a swing state much more akin to purple Wisconsin than it is to deep blue Illinois.


You stand corrected several times.

* You said Minnesota voted for Trump once. Incorrect.

* You said Minnesota voted for George W Bush twice. Incorrect.

* You said Minnesota wasn't even a light blue state and that it was solidly purple. Incorrect.

* And when comparing MN to IL and who is "bluer:"


Republican candidates won the 6 Presidential elections in Illinois from 1968 to 1988. Democratic candidates won the 8 elections in IL from 1992 to 2020.

Minnesota (no R presidential candidate has won MN since 1972) has 16 years on Illinois (no R presidential candidate has won IL since 1988) when it comes to being blue.
 
The folks in Minnesota will come through come November 5th. Like the majority of Americans, they too will refuse to vote for a convicted felon.
 
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You stand corrected several times.

* You said Minnesota voted for Trump once. Incorrect.

* You said Minnesota voted for George W Bush twice. Incorrect.

* You said Minnesota wasn't even a light blue state and that it was solidly purple. Incorrect.

* And when comparing MN to IL and who is "bluer:"


Republican candidates won the 6 Presidential elections in Illinois from 1968 to 1988. Democratic candidates won the 8 elections in IL from 1992 to 2020.

Minnesota (no R presidential candidate has won MN since 1972) has 16 years on Illinois (no R presidential candidate has won IL since 1988) when it comes to being blue.
Illinois is the deepest of blues. A minimum of 17 points has decided the last 4 presidential elections and as such Trump will be trounced by 15-20 points, just as he was in each of the previous 2 cycles. Minnesota on the other hand has had 3 of the last 6 elections decided by less than 4 points. Nothing is new in Minnesota where another close election will likely award Biden the state's electoral votes.
 
Illinois is the deepest of blues. A minimum of 17 points has decided the last 4 presidential elections and as such Trump will be trounced by 15-20 points, just as he was in each of the previous 2 cycles. Minnesota on the other hand has had 3 of the last 6 elections decided by less than 4 points. Nothing is new in Minnesota where another close election will likely award Biden the state's electoral votes.
Might want to stop while you are behind
 
Might want to stop while you are behind
Any Republican candidate coming within 10 points of winning Illinois would be a huge upset in any election cycle seeing as it hasn't happened in 30 years. That tells you all you need to know about which is the bluer state. It's not even close.
 
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