Aurora Borealis 5/10 - 5/11

[Colonoscopy]

Summary

So to summarize what you want to see:

-KP-Index of 7+
-G-index of G4+
-Solar Wind Speed of 600km/s+
– Bt of 20nT+
– Bz of -15 or less

Chance for auroras Friday night: Here's what you need to know

Social media is abuzz with news of auroras that may be visible across the US on Friday night. These auroras have an outside chance of making it as far south as North Georgia.

nowhabersham.com

Aurora Forecast for Iceland

Icelands no. 1 Northern Lights Forecast service

auroraforecast.is

Yeah. That'll get you views here in iowa at or at similar latitudes. But for really great views.. having watched big events... I'm hoping for sustained Bz lower than -30, Bt at 40+, and sustained Kp of 9.

The show back in 04 that gave us incredible views with the thing right over our heads put out numbers like that.

I think this one has the potential to give us that.

 

[Colonoscopy]

Near earth satellites just impacted. Ideally this would have held off longer, but we shall see what's available at dark. (of course we may have more energy on top of this)

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

THE FIRST CME HAS ARRIVED: The first of six CMEs hurled toward Earth by giant sunspot AR3664 is minutes away form striking our planet's magnetic field. It has just passed the DSCOVR spacecraft and will soon close the gap to Earth. This could be a 'Cannibal CME' composed of two or three individual storm clouds--or simply the first of six. We will soon find out. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

Real Time Solar Wind | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

www.swpc.noaa.gov

 

[Ree4]

Seems like a pretty historical event so far.

 

[Colonoscopy]

Seems like a pretty historical event so far.

The amount of X class flares unleashed at earth within a short time period seems historic.

Weather or not that results in historic geomagnetic activity on earth remains to be seen.

Currently we're sitting at Bt of 50 and Bz of -45, which is about as strong as I've seen.

If that holds on till darkness in the US, most of the country is going to see this thing. Right now that's my big concern, that it can hang on long enough. (of course it might be refreshed by another shock wave)

 

[Joes Place]

The amount of X class flares unleashed at earth within a short time period seems historic.

Weather or not that results in historic geomagnetic activity on earth remains to be seen.

Currently we're sitting at Bt of 50 and Bz of -45, which is about as strong as I've seen.

If that holds on till darkness in the US, most of the country is going to see this thing. Right now that's my big concern, that it can hang on long enough. (of course it might be refreshed by another shock wave)

Realtime graphs

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity.html

35 min delay from the satellites to when the wave hits Earth

 

[Colonoscopy]

Realtime graphs

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity.html

35 min delay from the satellites to when the wave hits Earth

They do a better job with their graphs. Some of them are pretty janky.

 

[Ree4]

G4 already

 

[Colonoscopy]

G4 already

Where did you see that?

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

W

We talking about nipples, right?

Many a nipple was erected on this day......

 

[Joes Place]

Kp8 hit

 

[McLovin32]

Where did you see that?

 

[Colonoscopy]

Here is what the severe storm in 04 looked like. 9 hours at kp 9

We have 7.5 hours till nightfall and currently sit at kp 8. Hopefully something similar can develop for us heading into the evening.

 

[Joes Place]

View embedded media

 

[Joes Place]

Here is what the severe storm in 04 looked like. 9 hours at kp 9

We have 7.5 hours till nightfall and currently sit at kp 8. Hopefully something similar can develop for us heading into the evening.

 

[Colonoscopy]

Bt at 80 on STEREO reading, never seen it that high. Bz was at -73 for a bit, which is insane. Will be interesting to see if this matriculates to earth in the next hour or so.

Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

www.swpc.noaa.gov

 

[Ree4]

Bt at 80 on STEREO reading, never seen it that high. Bz was at -73 for a bit, which is insane. Will be interesting to see if this matriculates to earth in the next hour or so.

Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

www.swpc.noaa.gov

I saw that too. I'm learning on the fly what all this stuff means but i know 80 Bt is like -- double, insane.

 

[Joes Place]

Bt at 80 on STEREO reading, never seen it that high. Bz was at -73 for a bit, which is insane. Will be interesting to see if this matriculates to earth in the next hour or so.

Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

www.swpc.noaa.gov

 

[Joes Place]

Don't look now, but ~2 hrs ago, hemispheric power was at 10GW

Going up to 200 GW about to hit Earth in the next 20-30 min

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity.html

In comparison, a flux capacitor only requires 1.21 GW!!!!

 

[Ree4]

Don't look now, but ~2 hrs ago, hemispheric power was at 10GW

Going up to 200 GW about to hit Earth in the next 20-30 min

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity.html

In comparison, a flux capacitor only requires 1.21 GW!!!!

But the only power source capable of producing that amount of power is... a bolt of lightning!

 

[jawatkins]

Don't look now, but ~2 hrs ago, hemispheric power was at 10GW

Going up to 200 GW about to hit Earth in the next 20-30 min

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity.html

In comparison, a flux capacitor only requires 1.21 GW!!!!

Yeah but is it going 88 mph?

 

[BlIIlken2]

You're a freaking commercial pilot. Between your profession and heart and brain surgeons, 99.9% of the pssy is gone. We are competing for left over crumbs.

Married with 1.4 children. All I have left is beer and internet pron in a cold lonely hotel room 14 nights a month.

Also this thing is legitimately going to destroy our grid isn’t it? I bet China does something stupid at the same time.

 

[Colonoscopy]

Pictures are starting to roll in across the globe

 

[GOHOX69]

Married with 1.4 children. All I have left is beer and internet pron in a cold lonely hotel room 14 nights a month.

Also this thing is legitimately going to destroy our grid isn’t it? I bet China does something stupid at the same time.

Please do not start another WWIII thread

 

[hawkirugged17]

But the only power source capable of producing that amount of power is... a bolt of lightning!

 

[hawkirugged17]

 

[BlIIlken2]

 

[Colonoscopy]

View embedded media

Yeah, that's what I was seeing. Should hit soon enough. Bz swung back north though. Doesn't matter too much yet until it gets to earth. We want to marinate in a southward Bz for at least a few hours before dark to get things popping.

 

[lonestar50]

 

[Colonoscopy]

 

[McLovin32]

 

[Colonoscopy]

Kp at 8.67

Planetary K-index | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

www.swpc.noaa.gov

 

[Colonoscopy]

BT is 69. Earth satellite detected.

Highest I've seen.

 

[McLovin32]

BT is 69. Earth satellite detected.

Highest I've seen.

 

[SI_NYC]

I've never seen them put out a media release like this. What's unprecedented is that there are at least four, maybe five major flares headed our way within a short period of time. This could be something that impacts satellites and power-grids. In principal, enough energy hits, we could be looking at quite a mess.

This guy is a great follow for his sun images and videos.

 

[hawkirugged17]

 

[General Tso]

View embedded media

The first of the anticipated coronal mass ejections has arrived at STEREO Ahead, a satellite slightly closer to the Sun than DSCOVR. The impact has been significant there with a maximum interplanetary magneic field Bt value of 41nT and a minimum Bz value of -33nT at the time of writing. If we see similar values at Earth (which we should) this is certainly going to cause a significant geomagnetic storm where severe G4 geomagnetic storm conditions are absolutely possible! Charge your camera batteries and keep an eye on the data on http://spaceweatherlive.com. This could become one of the strongest geomagnetic storms of this Solar Cycle!

Coronal mass ejections.

 

[Colonoscopy]

They're even seeing this in light polluted London

 

[Colonoscopy]

 

[McLovin32]

 

[Colonoscopy]

View embedded media

Historic event.

Hour and a half now for central time zone...