Aurora Borealis 5/10 - 5/11
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Here's some edited pictures from around 230 this morning
That's what serious camera equipment and long exposures get you w/ aurora pics
You know you have a crazy show when you get the crown overheadHere's some edited pictures from around 230 this morning
With the good camera. Started out around Ladora Iowa at sundown. Headed back east on 80 when the show started to fade. Started perking back up and headed up highway 1 around Solon. Shot there for a while then decided to see if I could get an Iowa City icon shots (old cap, etc) and that didn't work too well so just hung out in the city park for a bit. Got a handy and then a big pink ray which was awesome. Went nuts down there.
roduct: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity:Issued: 2024 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2024
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X5 event observed at
11/0123Z from Region 3664 (S18W62). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be high on
days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed reached a peak of 993 km/s at 11/1433Z. Total IMF reached 73 nT at
10/2305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -50 nT at
11/0048Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 116 pfu at 11/0910Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 11/0715Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 119 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at severe storm levels on day one (12 May), active to severe storm
levels on day two (13 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (14 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and
two (12 May, 13 May) and are likely to cross threshold on day three (14
May).
III. Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M 95/95/95
Class X 75/75/75
Proton 99/99/60
PCAF red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 214
Predicted 12 May-14 May 220/220/215
90 Day Mean 11 May 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 080/157
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 268/317
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 114/156-041/060-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/35
Minor Storm 40/35/30
Major-severe storm 55/55/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 01/01/05
Minor Storm 05/05/20
Major-severe storm 95/95/70
going to have to be hit by another flare. They should be in route, though.
No days back we had up to 6 or so that were earthward directed. They haven't all arrived. Not sure if the latest flare is earthward directed, but that big X5 looked to have an earthward component. (So that would be in addition to the other incoming CMEs, which could arrive any time)
Haven't seen any reports yet tonight. NWS Quad Cities saying best chance after midnight.
Kp index forecast is for up to 9 today.
But that is based on UTC time, which is 5 hrs ahead of CDT. So the big stuff may be before dusk tonight, if it isn't already passed by. (UTC midnight is at 7PM CDT)
Kp is currently 4 and things are very calm. Highest Kp for Monday lists as 7, which is still high, but not what we've seen over the past couple days.
But that is based on UTC time, which is 5 hrs ahead of CDT. So the big stuff may be before dusk tonight, if it isn't already passed by. (UTC midnight is at 7PM CDT)
Kp is currently 4 and things are very calm. Highest Kp for Monday lists as 7, which is still high, but not what we've seen over the past couple days.
At this point we're waiting for that X5 I think. Other flares may have been cannibalized in the first event... Seemingly.
Dazzling auroras are just a warm-up as more solar storms are likely, scientists say
Nature talks to physicists about what to expect in the next few months and beyond as the Sun hits its ‘maximum’.
www.nature.com
Keep an eye on the 10+ day forecast for the next hits we might see.
Nothing showing up thru June 8 yet.
Live Data – See The Aurora
seetheaurora.com
Old sunspot AR3664 (now AR3697) isn't as big as it used to be, but it is still very active. Today at 1437 UT, it produced an X1.4-class solar flare:
This explosion was remarkable for its duration. The X-class phase alone lasted more than an hour--plenty of time to lift a CME out of the sun's atmosphere. Indeed, SOHO coronagraphs have detected a bright CME emerging from the blast site: movie. We will find out in the hours ahead whether or not the storm cloud has an Earth-directed component. Stay tuned! Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
This explosion was remarkable for its duration. The X-class phase alone lasted more than an hour--plenty of time to lift a CME out of the sun's atmosphere. Indeed, SOHO coronagraphs have detected a bright CME emerging from the blast site: movie. We will find out in the hours ahead whether or not the storm cloud has an Earth-directed component. Stay tuned! Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
G2 storm possible. Could sneak down into mid latitudes
Fri/Sat set for Kp6 numbers.
No 7/8/9 like the last hit, though
Yeah, really unlikely. I've seen events overproduce though. So I wouldn't rule out a 7. And I've seen it in Iowa at 6. (again, not as a big event, but still neat)
Be interesting to see if that spot gives us anything more. The X class it did produce was long duration, which almost always produce good CMEs. Too bad it wasn't squared up with earth.
Kind of wonder why they're talking it up now after seeing this. Earthward would be center. Hardly any energy going that direction. Big CME though
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