I posted this in the lounge, but with all the talk over the last week here, I'm copying it to this thread. Then I'm out for a while. I have duties at a couple conference tournaments.
#1) I think it's beyond great that Iowa fans are beginning to pay more attention to college baseball. What Coach Heller and his staff are doing has been a huge (and long overdue) breath of fresh air for the sport and the athletes that deserve just as much attention as football, basketball and wrestling.
#2) Unlike football and basketball, there is no one centralized figure head or national resource that college baseball fans can turn to. So when you look at one particular outlet and it's writers, understand that is just their opinion. All the respect in the world to Kendall Rogers, Aaron Fitt, Eric Sorenson, etc. But to follow them like the towns-children did the pied piper is the wrong approach.
I've stressed this in some previous threads....and this will be the last time I do it (at least for this season)....these guys aren't 100% accurate. They do swing and miss.
I have had the fortune of knowing and talking to several former selection committee members. They all say the same thing.
There is no one/singular metric that determines if a team gets a bid. Obviously a team's RPI figures into it. But record among Top 50 & Top 100 teams is also a factor. Just like in basketball--so are "bad" losses. A winning record within your conference is a big factor. So is percentage points--did you not play as many games as other teams due to: weather cancelations, etc.
When the committee meets the toughest and most intense conversations are often centered around "the eye test". Example: This usually comes when comparing the 4th or 5th ranked team in the Big Ten or Missouri Valley against the 7th or 8th best team in the SEC or ACC.
It's not as mechanical as many of you are thinking or have been led to believe.
SO COME UP FOR AIR!!
With what happened last weekend around the nation, it did not bode well for the Big Ten. Ohio St. played it's way down a seed (possibly back on the bubble) by losing to Michigan St. Michigan has been taking on water for weeks. Illinois has gained some ground, while Iowa likely has been treading water.
The realistic over/under for NCAA bids for the Big Ten is 4. Minnesota and Indiana (despite their conference record) are good. That means in Omaha this week you have 5 teams: Iowa, Illinois, Ohio St., Michigan and Purdue who are all fighting for the last 2 bids.
With what happened in the SEC last weekend Mississippi St. and South Carolina almost assuredly claimed 2 more at large bids, and LSU could do the same if they have a strong showing at the conference tournament.
As others have mentioned, The Hawkeyes almost certainly need to reach the championship game just to get on the right side of the bubble. Even then it will still be dicey.
Good luck to Coach Heller and the program. They will need to earn it this week
