Brokered convention?

[SCHawkFan]

With the next couple dozen primaries / caucuses being proportional, is it getting more likely there will be a brokered GOP convention? It seems as if Trump has a 35% ceiling and his win in SC was by half the margin he won by in NH. Bush supporters will most likely go to Rubio. Kasich will stay in to take and control the Ohio delegates. Cruz will get Texas. Rubio should win Florida. If things play out as it looks like it could, the republicans may not have a candidate going into the convention. Probably a bad thing for the party, but sessions for people who enjoy the spectacle of politics.

One thing we can expect, Trump is going to brutalize Rubio over the next week. How Rubio holds up will be telling. He needs to close the gap and probably have a few wins super Tuesday.

 

[73chief]

With the next couple dozen primaries / caucuses being proportional, is it getting more likely there will be a brokered GOP convention? It seems as if Trump has a 35% ceiling and his win in SC was by half the margin he won by in NH. Bush supporters will most likely go to Rubio. Kasich will stay in to take and control the Ohio delegates. Cruz will get Texas. Rubio should win Florida. If things play out as it looks like it could, the republicans may not have a candidate going into the convention. Probably a bad thing for the party, but sessions for people who enjoy the spectacle of politics.

One thing we can expect, Trump is going to brutalize Rubio over the next week. How Rubio holds up will be telling. He needs to close the gap and probably have a few wins super Tuesday.

Trump currently leads the Florida Polls at 40%. Cruz is at 19% and Rubio at 16%.

Vast majority of the remaining state primaries are winner take all. there is about 0% there is a brokered convention.

 

[SCHawkFan]

Trump currently leads the Florida Polls at 40%. Cruz is at 19% and Rubio at 16%.

Vast majority of the remaining state primaries are winner take all. there is about 0% there is a brokered convention.

The next 24 primaries and caucuses are proportional. There are 18 winner take all states and territories to come, but all but one after super Tuesday. There has not been a Florida poll released in more than a month. I suspect things will be much tighter now.

 

[soybean]

With the next couple dozen primaries / caucuses being proportional, is it getting more likely there will be a brokered GOP convention? It seems as if Trump has a 35% ceiling and his win in SC was by half the margin he won by in NH. Bush supporters will most likely go to Rubio. Kasich will stay in to take and control the Ohio delegates. Cruz will get Texas. Rubio should win Florida. If things play out as it looks like it could, the republicans may not have a candidate going into the convention. Probably a bad thing for the party, but sessions for people who enjoy the spectacle of politics.

One thing we can expect, Trump is going to brutalize Rubio over the next week. How Rubio holds up will be telling. He needs to close the gap and probably have a few wins super Tuesday.

You might get disapointed there, SC.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

They actually polled Bush supporters in SC and while Rubio did get most of them, it's not like they broke heavily for him. 31% of Bush supporters said they'd go to Rubio, Cruz was close behind. Ultimately what CNN said last night was it would have added 2% each to Rubio and Cruz, but Trump and Carson would've been bumped up by 1% as well from their pool of Bush supporters.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

I've said on here before and I will say it again. I believe people are vastly underestimating Donald Trump's support in places like Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Nevada. A LOT of union blue collar types really like Trump, really like him. I think Trump can win those primaries/caucuses and I also think with Trump then Florida, Michigan, and Nevada are in play on the presidential level.

 

[SCHawkFan]

I think people are overestimating Trump's desire to actually be president.

 

[LuteHawk]

Rubio the Robot will not win the Florida primary. He is
still looking for his first primary win. Chris Christie did
a number on Rubio in the last debate. Rubio will not
conquer the Donald.

 

[SCHawkFan]

Rubio the Robot will not win the Florida primary. He is
still looking for his first primary win. Chris Christie did
a number on Rubio in the last debate. Rubio will not
conquer the Donald.

I will agree Rubio most likely cannot capture the nomination if he does not win Florida, but I believe he will win that primary. The last poll done two weeks ago had Trump first with 27% and Rubio second with 20%. Rubio has most likely closed that gap. My guess is Bush endorses Rubio very soon and works Florida for him, as will republicans from all over the country. Everyone knows Florida is the place where Trump needs to be stopped. I expect that will happen.

 

[73chief]

The next 24 primaries and caucuses are proportional. There are 18 winner take all states and territories to come, but all but one after super Tuesday. There has not been a Florida poll released in more than a month. I suspect things will be much tighter now.

11 of the next 24 primaries have winner-takes-all thresholds. If those thresholds are met by one candidate's vote total, they win all the delegates. Trump is currently polling over the threshold in 7 of them.

People just don't understand what is really happening here with Trump, and the level of grass roots support he is receiving.

 

[Capital1Hawk]

I think people are overestimating Trump's desire to actually be president.

How? Think he could do something more useful with his time and money than campaigning for over a year to be the nominee. I think trump takes it. All types of people support him from Union workers to business owners.

 

[soybean]

Who would the brokers be?

 

[jscott78]

I will agree Rubio most likely cannot capture the nomination if he does not win Florida, but I believe he will win that primary. The last poll done two weeks ago had Trump first with 27% and Rubio second with 20%. Rubio has most likely closed that gap. My guess is Bush endorses Rubio very soon and works Florida for him, as will republicans from all over the country. Everyone knows Florida is the place where Trump needs to be stopped. I expect that will happen.

It's out of the establishment's hands now.

 

[StonesCat]

11 of the next 24 primaries have winner-takes-all thresholds. If those thresholds are met by one candidate's vote total, they win all the delegates. Trump is currently polling over the threshold in 7 of them.

People just don't understand what is really happening here with Trump, and the level of grass roots support he is receiving.

I get what you're saying, but if you look at just the Super Tuesday states, in all polling done in the last month or so, it's all pretty even between the three main guys. Agreed that Trump is in a great position, but there's a number of spots coming where Cruz and Rubio could win and change some perceptions.

 

[BigDelHawk]

The terrible thing is, the Pope called Trump out, and it actually helped him in the South, as Trump took the Pope on in the media.

 

[jscott78]

The terrible thing is, the Pope called Trump out, and it actually helped him in the South, as Trump took the Pope on in the media.

Evangelicals aren't catholics.

 

[NoleSoup4U]

You might get disapointed there, SC.

A lot of people down here hate Rubio. He's nothing but an empty suit who doesn't even bother to vote.

 

[BigDelHawk]

I do not think Cruz walks away with Texas either. That is going to be a fight.

 

[73chief]

The terrible thing is, the Pope called Trump out, and it actually helped him in the South, as Trump took the Pope on in the media.

Actually the Pope didn't call Trump out. If the entire comment the Pope made in it's full context would have been reported by the mainstream media there would have been nothing made of it.

 

[SCHawkFan]

Trump has won two open primary states. A big state coming up, Florida, is a closed primary state. We are past the registration date to vote in that primary, so, unless you are a registered Republican right now, you cannot vote for Trump. All the non affiliated voters and democrats who support him are out of luck. Is his organization strong enough to have planned for that?

The GOP race is not as fixed as the democrats, but there are considerable advantages to being the establishment choice.

 

[THE_DEVIL]

I do not think Cruz walks away with Texas either. That is going to be a fight.

 

[Jakeleg Jake]

The terrible thing is, the Pope called Trump out, and it actually helped him in the South, as Trump took the Pope on in the media.

The Papal Empire isn't exactly a popular thing in the South...