Rutgers is gonna play hard for a better seed, and avoid being an NCAA bubble team.
I could see them dropping off the tourney list with a loss to NW and losing a 1st round game in the BTT. So, that's gonna be a dogfight at the RAC...
BTT double-bye officially one win away
- Thread starter Adam Jacobi
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I could see them dropping off the tourney list with a loss to NW and losing a 1st round game in the BTT. So, that's gonna be a dogfight at the RAC...
I just don’t think it’s worth the time. Very few players ever master the midrange shot. Better to concentrate on the 3 point shot. I think there are stats that back me up, but I’m too lazy to look.
They can get the #4 if NW and MD both lose.
I don't think Mich/Ind matters in that case.
MSU has a shot to get a #3 seed if we lose, though
Not sure anyone wants the #4/5 slot to play Purdue in the quarters...
If the weekend goes chalk (according to Sagarin), Iowa gets the #2 seed, but first game would be against winner of Illinois and Wisconsin, which I don't like so much.
Personally, in addition to rooting for the Hawks, I am hoping that Penn State can pull a minor upset at home against Maryland; that way Iowa would play the winner of what would be a rematch between those two for their first game, which I much prefer.
If Penn St AND Northwestern pull off upsets, that drops the Hawks to the #3 seed, but it might actually be the best-case scenario for Iowa. This is because their first game would be against the Minn/Wisc-Maryland winner, with the other teams on their half of the bracket being Penn St, Illinois and Northwestern. I really like the idea of having Purdue, Indiana, Mich and Mich St on the other half of the bracket.
Personally, in addition to rooting for the Hawks, I am hoping that Penn State can pull a minor upset at home against Maryland; that way Iowa would play the winner of what would be a rematch between those two for their first game, which I much prefer.
If Penn St AND Northwestern pull off upsets, that drops the Hawks to the #3 seed, but it might actually be the best-case scenario for Iowa. This is because their first game would be against the Minn/Wisc-Maryland winner, with the other teams on their half of the bracket being Penn St, Illinois and Northwestern. I really like the idea of having Purdue, Indiana, Mich and Mich St on the other half of the bracket.
That's because they do not practice them.
Teams that hit them are very difficult to stop. When TP is hitting those, he puts up 20-30 points in a game.
If nothing else, I want Purdue on the other side of the bracket from us - worst matchup for us by far.
Being able to hit shots from anywhere makes it much harder to defend imo. If nothing else, the defender can’t just sit and try to draw a charge or block a shot at the rim.
Illinois would not be a bad matchup, as they are running lean due to injuries.
Not sure they'd keep up with Iowa on one day's rest. But, no matter who you're playing, you gotta show up. Any team can hit a hot streak at the BTT, so you have to be prepared, regardless of their seeding. Middle of the BT does not have very big gaps between the teams.
If Iowa doesn't have their outside shooting going, it could be a short tournament run; hopefully that cold-streak is done now. Because it was brutal to watch...
Iowa could still get a 3 seed if a few upsets happen. Ohio State needs to upset MSU on the road, PSU needs to knock off Maryland at home, Rutgers needs to win.
per the tweet I linked above, 3 scenarios to get the 3 seed with a loss, 17 for the 4 seed, 24 for the 5, 16 for the 6 and 4 for the 7 seed. or 31% of the scenarios give us a top 4 seed.
Iowa has an ~80% chance to win the game, and a 7.7 % chance to still get a top 4 seed with a loss.
I think that there are only 3 scenarios where we win and don't get the 2 seed, #4, 17, and 22.
I can't tell you the exact odds based on the weighted percentages of probability in that matrix, but of those 128 possible outcomes there are 20 where Nebraska wins and Iowa gets a 4 seed or better.
I guess what I’m trying to say is that very few players can master the midrange shot, regardless of practice. Perkins is a great example of someone who does.
Until players fell in love with the 3 point shot, players with midrange games were highly coveted because they put stress on a defense.
players don’t work on it nearly as much as they used to.
It's why you practice. Luka Garza is a perfect example of the results from working on aspects of your game you didn't have as a freshman/soph.
Instead of just spending the summer in Prime Time League, playing against overmatched competition and getting little development on things you need to work on.
I don't disagree necessarily but the mid range game has essentially been abandoned so it's hard to say that anyone even practices that shot anymore.
Kevin Smith of the old days is another perfect example.
That kid could take anyone off the dribble and get into the lane with relative ease.
Could not shoot to save his life. All defenses had to do was protect against the layup, and he was worthless as a scorer. He had no outside range, either. If that kid had just worked hard on a 10-12 ft pull-up jumper or using the glass after breaking down his defender, he'd have been unstoppable.
With that mid-range 5-12 ft threat, the help defense that comes out to defend your shot leaves open the easy bounce pass assist to the centers/fwds under the basket for dunks.
This is the biggest element missing in Iowa's offense; when we cannot hit 3s, defenses can just pack the lane and we are easy to defend. It's what Wisconsin does very well; add in that mid-range stuff, and you open everything else up. And when that midrange shot works, you get many more chances at alley-oop dunks when the shot blockers have to come out further and defend.
You can't be good at something that's difficult w/o practicing it. Just look at any NBA shot chart, and you'll see loads of short-range shots those guys hit. You wanna get to that level, you need more than just 3s to do it.
...and if it's "abandoned", then that'd clearly be an area most defenses aren't going to be tuned to defend against. It's the soft underbelly for most of them.
Opens up tons of assists opportunities, too, when defenders have to leave their guy earlier to protect against that 7-12 footer.
Correct, the mid-range shot is very poorly defended by most teams anymore,.. Almost a lost art on both offense and defense...
And imo, it’s why when Iowa has looked it’s best, it’s because Tony and co are attacking the basket, causing defenses to collapse, leave guys, open, etc.
Watch and NBA game and look at the shot chart---that is a business that is driven by analytics so if they thought it made sense to shoot long 2's they would do. It is pretty obvious that a Long 2-pt shot just inside the ARC is the worst possible shot you could take.
My recollection is you need to be within 6 ft of the basket for the 2pt shot to yield more points (higher eFG%) than a 3pt shot in eFG%.
The NCAA average for 3pt shots is roughly 34%---one would have to have a 2pt shooting percentage of close to 51% to get equivalent efg%.
Yes, there are some players with excellent short game that might be able to shoot 51% from the field, outside of 6ft from the basket, but it is not so much a lost art as a rare talent. Garza was one of those rare talents, but even he took most of his shots within 6 ft of the basket or 3pt shots.
Perkins does pretty good job in dribble drive, but most of his success is inside the paint and within that 6ft range that I mentioned.
If TP or Ulis hits that pull up jumper from the ft line it seems like a good result is in store.
There are stats, that would on the surface seem to support your position. However, if one looks closer, they might not. For instance, the season prior to the three points shot the average FG% for a team was 48%. today only 25 teams shoot at 48% or higher in all of NCAA basketball. As far as three-point shooting, only two teams shoot at over 40% and none shoot over 41%. Also, on average team are scoring fewer points today than the year prior to the 3-point play being enacted.
Let's take Kris Murray for example. He is shooting over 60% from 2 and 35.2% from 3. While many of his two-point shots aren't mid-range shots in his case even though he is a pretty good 3-point shooter he would be better off not shooting 3's statistically. If he shoots 10 of each, he scores 10.5 points from 3 and 12 from 2.
I've been around too long. This game worries the pulp out of me.
A 6-12 ft shot is not "just inside the arc". Those are the mid-range game I'm referring to.
And if you look at the shot charts, NBAers toss in quite a few from inside the FT line area that aren't layups.
There’s little that scores me more than “should-win” games.
Whether it’s the possible let-down factor from Indiana, the pressure of having everything to play for, on senior day, etc.
im generally an optimistic, but its very rare in sports that i view any gamy, between any team as a sure thing. Crazy things happen in March.
I think your stats are supportive of my position. Prior to the 3 point line, teams constantly pounded the ball into the paint. It was very boring, dominated by centers and very physical, that’s why they created the 3 point line. The 3 point line wasn’t installed to raise scores, it was meant to spread defenses. The fact is teams take so many 3s because it’s efficient to shoot them at an equal percentage to 2 point shots, factoring in the value differential.
If you watch much of Kris’s game, he shoots very few midrange shots. Most are lay ups, dunks or 3 point shots.
And if Kris or Keegan mastered the midrange, they'd be even more dangerous players.
Like Michael Jordan was. Most of what he shot was mid-range.
Sure, of course. And Josh O would be like Kareem Abdul Jabbar if he mastered the sky hook. Michael Jordan was the GOAT. Not everyone is capable of his skill level.
Weird that I didn't say they'd be Jordan.
Just that they'd be even better, more dangerous players on offense. Apparently you think that is "wrong".
All I know is tomorrows game is one this team typically loses because we need it. Hopefully we don’t spit the bit this time.
Guess I'll be on the edge of my seat watching that highly anticipated Northwestern-Rutgers men's basketball matchup.
After the game Iowa just had, I don't know if it's better to back on the court as soon as possible or to have that extra day of rest to try to reset things. Iowa will probably have to win the BTT again now to not end up on the #8-#9 line of the NCAA's.
The way Iowa is they could take down a number 1 or lose to a 16 with the live by the three motto
Except of the 37 threes they took today, the vast majority of them that came in the 2nd half were unnecessary or forced.
It's one thing to be a team that lacks an inside presence so they have to make 3s to compete...................Iowa lazily chooses to be that kind of a team.
They aren't a team that can't score inside. Not to mention, a team that can get 21 offensive rebounds shouldn't be shooting 37 f***ing threes.
