Bubble Watch
- Thread starter whatsup13579er
- Start date
Win today. It’s all that matters now. Lose today and we will have to win the BTT. Win today and don’t flame out early at BTT and we are in.
Should be in, but bid stealers are a real thing. You also never know how the committee will view SEC and ACC teams with losing records but high RPI.
Columbia leading Penn 2-0 top 4 in game 3 of the Ivy League Championship series. Could be a bid stealer, as Penn is likely in.
Penn would be 33-15 and sitting at #53 in the RPI. Teams could jump them this week during conference tournaments. Bad news is they have a series win over Texas A&M
D1 Baseball doesn’t list the Ivy as a league that would be a two team league if Penn falters but … they’d have a good argument to get an at-large.
2022 Field Of 64 Projections: May 22 • D1Baseball
Our latest projections are out, and we have one new top eight, along with a whopping five new host changes.
Interesting note on NC State and Clemson and their ACC Tourney matchups. Both are in the last 4 in…D1 Baseball doesn’t list the Ivy as a league that would be a two team league if Penn falters but … they’d have a good argument to get an at-large.
2022 Field Of 64 Projections: May 22 • D1Baseball
Our latest projections are out, and we have one new top eight, along with a whopping five new host changes.d1baseball.com
NC State plays Wake Forest and Miami Fl
Clemson plays UNC and VTech
Wouldn’t be shocked to see one or both of them go 0-2. UNC has been hot as of late and Wake just swept NC State. Miami and VT are both top 10 teams.
Penn is going to be sweating it out big time IMO. Good news for the B1G is that they lost to Rutger. They are 6-8 vs Q1 with half of those wins coming over Columbia who they just lost the auto bid to. 23 of their 33 wins were Q4 wins.
Sent something to Burke Granger again. He said he felt like Iowa did enough to get included in the D1Baseball field, but evidently the Kendall and the others that build the field didn’t agree.
Start 2-0 and I find it hard to believe Iowa isn’t in. Barring losing to Illinois twice in the semifinals.
Start 2-0 and I find it hard to believe Iowa isn’t in. Barring losing to Illinois twice in the semifinals.
Hadn't thought of that scenario. Iowa v. Illinois in the semi-finals will likely be touted by BTN announcers as potential NCAA "play in" game or games.
If Iowa started 2-0, I think a split would work there. Would be 3-1 and in the title game. You lose both and all the sudden you are 1-4 vs Illinois and likely out.
Illinois needs to go 0-2, if they do and Iowa goes 2-0 then I’ll buy you a beer at the stadium come Saturday.
Iowa W!W!W! over Indiana. Hawks came up huge this weekend finishing 2nd in the B1G.
Purdue LLL over Maryland up to 3 in RPI
Michigan WWL over Rutgers
Penn St LLL over Illinois
Bradley LWW over Missouri State 2.9 RPI per win
Wichita St LLW over USF 2.6 RPI per win
CMU LWW over Toledo 2.0 RPI per win
TTech LLW over Oklahoma 1.3 RPI per win
NC St LLL over Wake Forest, WF is in with a .500+ record and 11 RPI. NCST (42) replaces them on the bubble at 14-15 ACC and 14-15. Probably in. Face WF and Miami in their pod.
Liberty LLW over Kennesaw St. ASUN is interesting. Want Liberty or KST to win and the other to tank.
Louisiana Tech LWW over Charlotte. LT probably pretty safe.
FSU LLL over UNC. UNC is in at .500 and 16. Need them and VT to take out Clemson in their pod.
Pitt 2/3 LLL vs GTech. GT is in. .500 and 20.
WKU LLL over Old Dominion. Play MTST (57) Wed. ODU probably in.
Boston College LLL over Clemson. Swept BC lost 8 RPI spots to 30. At 13-16 I think they're out.
UAB WLL over UTSA. Play FAU (92) Wed. UTSA probably out.
Little Rock WLL over Louisiana. S Alabama (66) Wed.
Southern Miss WWW over MTSU.
George Mason LWL over Davidson (65)
Fordham LLL over VCU (64). A10 should be a 1 bid league. League RPI21st.
Texas A&M WLW over Ole Miss
Oregon St LLW over UCLA
Samford WWL over Mercer. So Con could be a bid stealer if Wofford doesn't win.
Saint John's LLL over Xavier. Big East another bid stealer if UConn doesn't win.
Radford LL over Campbell. Big South 1 bid league. 23rd ranked.
Towson LWW over Charleston. This was big for Iowa. Colonial ikely a 1 bid league.
Gonzaga WWL over SD. Would be big if Iowa can catch SD (55) in RPI.
Penn WLL over Columbia. See above. Penn might not make it.
EIU LWW over Southeast Missouri
Purdue LLL over Maryland up to 3 in RPI
Michigan WWL over Rutgers
Penn St LLL over Illinois
Bradley LWW over Missouri State 2.9 RPI per win
Wichita St LLW over USF 2.6 RPI per win
CMU LWW over Toledo 2.0 RPI per win
TTech LLW over Oklahoma 1.3 RPI per win
NC St LLL over Wake Forest, WF is in with a .500+ record and 11 RPI. NCST (42) replaces them on the bubble at 14-15 ACC and 14-15. Probably in. Face WF and Miami in their pod.
Liberty LLW over Kennesaw St. ASUN is interesting. Want Liberty or KST to win and the other to tank.
Louisiana Tech LWW over Charlotte. LT probably pretty safe.
FSU LLL over UNC. UNC is in at .500 and 16. Need them and VT to take out Clemson in their pod.
Pitt 2/3 LLL vs GTech. GT is in. .500 and 20.
WKU LLL over Old Dominion. Play MTST (57) Wed. ODU probably in.
Boston College LLL over Clemson. Swept BC lost 8 RPI spots to 30. At 13-16 I think they're out.
UAB WLL over UTSA. Play FAU (92) Wed. UTSA probably out.
Little Rock WLL over Louisiana. S Alabama (66) Wed.
Southern Miss WWW over MTSU.
George Mason LWL over Davidson (65)
Fordham LLL over VCU (64). A10 should be a 1 bid league. League RPI21st.
Texas A&M WLW over Ole Miss
Oregon St LLW over UCLA
Samford WWL over Mercer. So Con could be a bid stealer if Wofford doesn't win.
Saint John's LLL over Xavier. Big East another bid stealer if UConn doesn't win.
Radford LL over Campbell. Big South 1 bid league. 23rd ranked.
Towson LWW over Charleston. This was big for Iowa. Colonial ikely a 1 bid league.
Gonzaga WWL over SD. Would be big if Iowa can catch SD (55) in RPI.
Penn WLL over Columbia. See above. Penn might not make it.
EIU LWW over Southeast Missouri
I think Iowa might be safely in the field when BA sends out their updated bracket on Tuesday.
If they were #61 before, strong likelihood that they jumped up at least one slot.
*Last 4 In BA, ^Last 4 In D1
Teams safely in a bracket
Florida 35-10 (15-15) 24 RPI (2 seed)
Coastal Carolina 36-17-1 (21-8-1) 28 RPI vs Troy (100)
Ole Miss 32-21 (14-16) 36 RPI vs Vandy (5)
UCLA 35-20 (17-10) 50 RPI (2 seed, gained 15 RPI spots)
Georgia Tech 33-21 (15-15) 20 RPI L 12-6 Pitt (72) should drop to 27, vs L'ville (9)
North Carolina 34-19 (15-15) 16 RPI (2 seed)
Wake Forest 39-16-1 (15-14-1) 20 RPI (went from out last week to 2 seed)
*Louisiana Tech 38-18 (20-10) 46 RPI vs Charlotte (74)
Last 4 In
*^NCST 33-20 (14-15) 42 RPI vs WF (11) and Miami (8)
*Iowa 32-16 (17-7) 58 RPI vs PSU (146)
^UTSA 35-19 (19-11) 49 RPI vs FAU (92)
^Clemson 35-21 (13-16) 30 RPI vs UNC (16) and Va Tech (4)
^Old Dominion 38-15 (19-11) 45 RPI vs MTST (57)
First 4/8 Out
San Diego 32-18 (17-10) 55 RPI vs SF (154)
Louisiana 33-21 (19-11) 59 RPI vs S Bama (66)
Keennesaw State 32-24 (19-11) 43 RPI vs Lipscomb (144) and Liberty (41) and FGCU (73)
-------------------I think there is a pretty clear divide here-------------------
Alabama 29-25 (12-17) 48 RPI vs Georgia (12) up 5-1 B3
Penn 33-15 (17-4) 53
Kentucky 30-24 (12-18) 54 RPI vs Auburn (7)
Off the bubble
Mercer 39-16 (12-9) 52 RPI vs TBD
Mid Tenn State 29-24 (17-13) 57 RPI vs ODU (45)
Pittsburgh 27-26 (13-16) 72 RPI W 12-6 GT (20) should go up to 66, vs L'ville (9)
Illinois 30-20 (17-7) 69 RPI vs Michigan (77)
BA does not like Conference USA and has them as a 2 bid league with UTSA and ODU out and no mention of MTST. Conversely, D1 has UTSA and ODU in.
I still don't understand the 'love' for Clemson. I don't think that is a tourney resume. WF played itself out last week and back in the field in a big way to a 2 seed by sweeping NCST. NCST has fallen onto the bubble. WF, GT, UNC did what they needed to do to get off of the bubble although GT lost to Pitt today.
I don't think Bama and Kentucky are real bubble teams unless they make A LOT of noise in the SEC tourney.
Best case scenario for Iowa is to beat PSU and get a couple more wins against Rutger. Then at that point you might as well win the whole damn thing.
Teams safely in a bracket
Florida 35-10 (15-15) 24 RPI (2 seed)
Coastal Carolina 36-17-1 (21-8-1) 28 RPI vs Troy (100)
Ole Miss 32-21 (14-16) 36 RPI vs Vandy (5)
UCLA 35-20 (17-10) 50 RPI (2 seed, gained 15 RPI spots)
Georgia Tech 33-21 (15-15) 20 RPI L 12-6 Pitt (72) should drop to 27, vs L'ville (9)
North Carolina 34-19 (15-15) 16 RPI (2 seed)
Wake Forest 39-16-1 (15-14-1) 20 RPI (went from out last week to 2 seed)
*Louisiana Tech 38-18 (20-10) 46 RPI vs Charlotte (74)
Last 4 In
*^NCST 33-20 (14-15) 42 RPI vs WF (11) and Miami (8)
*Iowa 32-16 (17-7) 58 RPI vs PSU (146)
^UTSA 35-19 (19-11) 49 RPI vs FAU (92)
^Clemson 35-21 (13-16) 30 RPI vs UNC (16) and Va Tech (4)
^Old Dominion 38-15 (19-11) 45 RPI vs MTST (57)
First 4/8 Out
San Diego 32-18 (17-10) 55 RPI vs SF (154)
Louisiana 33-21 (19-11) 59 RPI vs S Bama (66)
Keennesaw State 32-24 (19-11) 43 RPI vs Lipscomb (144) and Liberty (41) and FGCU (73)
-------------------I think there is a pretty clear divide here-------------------
Alabama 29-25 (12-17) 48 RPI vs Georgia (12) up 5-1 B3
Penn 33-15 (17-4) 53
Kentucky 30-24 (12-18) 54 RPI vs Auburn (7)
Off the bubble
Mercer 39-16 (12-9) 52 RPI vs TBD
Mid Tenn State 29-24 (17-13) 57 RPI vs ODU (45)
Pittsburgh 27-26 (13-16) 72 RPI W 12-6 GT (20) should go up to 66, vs L'ville (9)
Illinois 30-20 (17-7) 69 RPI vs Michigan (77)
BA does not like Conference USA and has them as a 2 bid league with UTSA and ODU out and no mention of MTST. Conversely, D1 has UTSA and ODU in.
I still don't understand the 'love' for Clemson. I don't think that is a tourney resume. WF played itself out last week and back in the field in a big way to a 2 seed by sweeping NCST. NCST has fallen onto the bubble. WF, GT, UNC did what they needed to do to get off of the bubble although GT lost to Pitt today.
I don't think Bama and Kentucky are real bubble teams unless they make A LOT of noise in the SEC tourney.
Best case scenario for Iowa is to beat PSU and get a couple more wins against Rutger. Then at that point you might as well win the whole damn thing.
5/25 AM update
*Last 4 In BA, ^Last 4 In D1
Teams safely in a bracket
Florida 35-10 (15-15) 24 RPI (2 seed)
Coastal Carolina 36-17-1 (21-8-1) 28 RPI vs Troy (100)
UCLA 35-20 (17-10) 50 RPI (2 seed, gained 15 RPI spots)
Georgia Tech 33-21 (15-15) 27 RPI L 12-6 Pitt (72) and vs L'ville (9)
North Carolina 34-19 (15-15) 16 RPI (2 seed)
Wake Forest 39-16-1 (15-14-1) 20 RPI (went from out last week to 2 seed)
*Louisiana Tech 38-18 (20-10) 46 RPI vs Charlotte (74)
Last 4 In
*Ole Miss 32-22 (14-16) 39 RPI L vs Vandy (5)
^NCST 33-20 (14-15) 37 RPI W vs WF (11) and Miami (8)
*Iowa 32-16 (17-7) 58 RPI vs PSU (146)
^UTSA 35-19 (19-11) 49 RPI vs FAU (92)
^Clemson 35-21 (13-16) 30 RPI L vs UNC (16) and Va Tech (4)
^Old Dominion 38-15 (19-11) 45 RPI vs MTST (57)
First 4/8 Out
San Diego 32-18 (17-10) 55 RPI vs SF (154)
Louisiana 33-21 (19-11) 59 RPI vs S Bama (66)
Keennesaw State 32-24 (19-11) 43 RPI vs Lipscomb (144) and Liberty (41) and FGCU (73)
-------------------I think there is a pretty clear divide here-------------------
Alabama 29-25 (12-17) 48 RPI vs Georgia (12) up 5-1 B3
Penn 33-15 (17-4) 53
Kentucky 30-24 (12-18) 54 RPI vs Auburn (7)
Off the bubble
Mercer 39-16 (12-9) 52 RPI vs TBD
Mid Tenn State 29-24 (17-13) 57 RPI vs ODU (45)
Pittsburgh 27-26 (13-16) 66 RPI W vs GT (20) vs L'ville (9)
Illinois 30-20 (17-7) 69 RPI vs Michigan (77)
Ole Miss is done and firmly on the bubble. Ole Miss replaces NCST in BAs last 4 in. Clemson lost and can't advance so they should be out. Penn is likely out after a really good season.
*Last 4 In BA, ^Last 4 In D1
Teams safely in a bracket
Florida 35-10 (15-15) 24 RPI (2 seed)
Coastal Carolina 36-17-1 (21-8-1) 28 RPI vs Troy (100)
UCLA 35-20 (17-10) 50 RPI (2 seed, gained 15 RPI spots)
Georgia Tech 33-21 (15-15) 27 RPI L 12-6 Pitt (72) and vs L'ville (9)
North Carolina 34-19 (15-15) 16 RPI (2 seed)
Wake Forest 39-16-1 (15-14-1) 20 RPI (went from out last week to 2 seed)
*Louisiana Tech 38-18 (20-10) 46 RPI vs Charlotte (74)
Last 4 In
*Ole Miss 32-22 (14-16) 39 RPI L vs Vandy (5)
^NCST 33-20 (14-15) 37 RPI W vs WF (11) and Miami (8)
*Iowa 32-16 (17-7) 58 RPI vs PSU (146)
^UTSA 35-19 (19-11) 49 RPI vs FAU (92)
^Clemson 35-21 (13-16) 30 RPI L vs UNC (16) and Va Tech (4)
^Old Dominion 38-15 (19-11) 45 RPI vs MTST (57)
First 4/8 Out
San Diego 32-18 (17-10) 55 RPI vs SF (154)
Louisiana 33-21 (19-11) 59 RPI vs S Bama (66)
Keennesaw State 32-24 (19-11) 43 RPI vs Lipscomb (144) and Liberty (41) and FGCU (73)
-------------------I think there is a pretty clear divide here-------------------
Alabama 29-25 (12-17) 48 RPI vs Georgia (12) up 5-1 B3
Penn 33-15 (17-4) 53
Kentucky 30-24 (12-18) 54 RPI vs Auburn (7)
Off the bubble
Mercer 39-16 (12-9) 52 RPI vs TBD
Mid Tenn State 29-24 (17-13) 57 RPI vs ODU (45)
Pittsburgh 27-26 (13-16) 66 RPI W vs GT (20) vs L'ville (9)
Illinois 30-20 (17-7) 69 RPI vs Michigan (77)
Ole Miss is done and firmly on the bubble. Ole Miss replaces NCST in BAs last 4 in. Clemson lost and can't advance so they should be out. Penn is likely out after a really good season.
Iowa has fallen to #60 in RPI.
#57 MTSU is ahead of Iowa by 8 points and is getting drubbed by Old Dominion (18-6 in T7). They’d lose 15 points with a loss.
#57 MTSU is ahead of Iowa by 8 points and is getting drubbed by Old Dominion (18-6 in T7). They’d lose 15 points with a loss.
#51 Kennesaw State losing to #41 Liberty, not sure how much KState would fall with a loss. How are these small schools producing RPI's in the 30s and 40s with records similar to Iowa? Without digging in they must have some crazy non conf schedules and wins.
BA has Liberty in the tournament so my feeling is that Iowa is happy with Kennesaw State’s loss. Looks they dropped 18 points to #52 overall.
Iowa catches MTSU but Old Dominion was BA’s top team out (#65). Probably wouldn’t hurt for ODU to now lose a couple of games.
KS played 6 games in conference against Liberty (37), midweek games against Georgia (19) 2x, Georgia Southern (13) 2x, Auburn (8), Georgia Tech (27) 2x, and Wofford (31). They went 5-9 in those games.
Liberty took a series at Florida (22) with midweeks against UNC (9) 2x, VCU (65), WF (14) 2x, Duke (95) 2x, Virginia (15), Va Tech (4) 2x and went 3-7 against Q1.
No Western Illinois games there.
At least basketball wised up and significantly devalued the RPI. No games today so we get more time to refresh the Warren Nolan RPI site every few minutes...
Riding the coattails of CMU’s 3 run B9 to beat Toledo 11-10. Toledo scored 2 in T9 to lead 10-8 and couldn’t close.
Iowa just doesn't have the opportunity to schedule those games, much less win them. Liberty didn't win many of them either but were rewarded greatly. 20+ spots higher.
Ummmm …. Pittsburgh beats Louisville today after beating Georgia Tech yesterday. Given the committee’s ACC love, is Pittsburgh re-entering the discussion?
I hate that we have no game to look forward to tonight.
I hate that we have no game to look forward to tonight.
