Can we stop saying "My 401K lost $XZY"?
- Thread starter notlongago
- Start date
Yes, I picked an average bear market duration based on 100+ years of data. Knowing a bull market follows lasting 3-10 years. If I buy on the downhill slide, the bottom or the climb back up, it doesn't really matter. Sitting on the sideline will matter.
If you want to try timing the markets, I wish you luck. There's a lot of money to be made if you can. Almost everyone who does that fails, but maybe you'll be one of the lucky ones.
I've only worked in 3 different companies, but all 3 had tiered vesting and you wouldn't hit fully vested until 4-6 years in each. Can't say I've looked lately tho - maybe shorter duration is now a recruitment tool?
“timing the market” for me is something that I do, but it’s more wave riding.
I am in institutional real estate by career. For us we have something called “cap rate compression”. The idea is as interest rates fall, commercial real estate goes up in price. We see it with houses. Same shit in buildings.
once I saw cap rate compression hit my own professional real estate assets, I moved my own equities portfolio to “heavy reit”. 2012/13.
the fed signaled QT in q4/21. I exited market around thanksgiving. Settled with Uncle Sam, and figured I’d wait. Got lucky with the extent of the downturn, but the idea that you can’t time the market is only true on short time frames.
riding large time frames has worked for me. In the broad scheme of things this is a small bear market so far. If bear markets relieve bloat from bull markets, I believe it’s worth waiting. There is a lot of bloat.
if you dollar cost average long enough into the right things, you’ll be fine. SPY, DJIA, and other profitable large companies will be fine “eventually”. I am not eager to throw capital around right now though.
fwiw @notlongago my business partners, who I consider smart people, are in agreement with you. We do argue about this stuff and plenty of smart people agree with you that this is a buying opportunity. My attitude is until the clearance rack is empty, don’t buy the stuff you like that’s on sale. We can wait.
if you have 15 years (which my partners and I have) wtf do you care this second for is their attitude. Don’t take my disagreement as dismissal.
I'm not - I love arguing/discussing finance. If there was only one right way, everyone (or maybe no one?) would be rich.
If you need the funds soon, you shouldn’t have that much in stocks.
Oh yeah, there’s tons of stuff wrong with dipshit’s hypothetical. I was just pointing out one simplistic point of idiocy.
I think rebalancing a portfolio (which should be done periodically) is a form of timing the market. I am not eager to rebalance until I know wtf is happening.
I’m a pretty educated guy and not a textbook on the planet laid out this scenario. Operating without a net can be life changing one way or another.
my only actual advice to people is avoid the penny stock game. You will lose eventually.
I have no idea what this is like across all employers that offer a match but I have never worked anywhere that the match hasn’t been 100% vested from the go
What are you doing with your investment cash if it's not in the markets? I have a mm my emergency fund is in at like 1.4% and I'm seeing short term CDs around 2.75%, but I almost value liquidity at 1% so those options are roughly even.
Like gas prices, it is largely a red meat issue for stupid people. Is is a coincidence they are often also Trumpers?
Who is to say the Fed doesn’t pivot at some point and lower rates? This could happen at any time.
Wanna bet? Define substantial and you and I have a wager. With the fed tightening like they are the chance the market is back to prior highs is near zero in the next 9 months.
That is exactly what happened during the 70s and the fed has said they are going to go out of their way to avoid those same mistakes.
Pick your index and tell us what level you think it'll be at. We can earmark this thread and see who's right come late June 23
Ok. Deal. DJIA. Won’t exceed all time highs. Looks to be 36944. So let’s use that.
Who said all time highs? I said substantially in the black. Let's go 12% above close of market on 9/26 by June 26 '23.
Well I don’t think being 12% above what is possibly a market bottom counts as ‘in the black’
So basically all your calling for is a bounce to 33140? Ha. That would still be 10% off all time highs. I think to count as in the black you need to actually be an actual market gain not just a rebound from lows.
So basically all your calling for is a bounce to 33140? Ha. That would still be 10% off all time highs. I think to count as in the black you need to actually be an actual market gain not just a rebound from lows.
This is basically what I’ve always believed to be true. I guess I can see if you have a lot of money that you’d leave some in the market. But you’d keep enough safe to maintain your lifestyle.
Just what we need an anonymous Suze Orman wannabe giving financial advice on a free message board! Sheesh LMAO
And you wouldn't be happy with 12% returns in a 9 month period? Since I'm saying "buy now" clearly were talking about this point in the market. Apologies if that wasn't clear.
(But you have no confidence this is anywhere near the bottom or you'd be advocating for buying the shit out of funds right now, so you can't talk out of both sides of your mouth)
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liquidity is in fidelity accounts. I wanna say I’m getting around that same 1.5%. I am like you. Liquidity matters and has a “price” I’m willing to pay.
Only ones that should truly be nervous are those near retirement. Otherwise, BAU.
Yeah, 4 years is way too long. 1 year maximum and to your point, most are vesting their employees after about 90 days to help attract talent
I have never heard of this happening. Is the max capped in absolute $s rather than a percent? This sounds incredibly stupid so I am trying to figure out how it would make sense. I guess if a 100% match was vested you could maybe still be ahead after tax penalty on the $s you put in, but it’s horribly short sighted. Sounds like the kind of action you would take to support a meth addiction or pay off a loan shark.
12% returns? That’s only if you buy now. If you remain 100% invested in the market throughout this recession you aren’t seeing any gains.
Dollar cost averaging is certainly the way to go with new money but even then you’d be matching these 12% gains with other poorly timed purchases. Hence the strategy.
Bottom line, this market sucks, thus president sucks, and all we can do is dollar cost in and wait for a real turnaround and levels above previous highs.
Dollar cost averaging is certainly the way to go with new money but even then you’d be matching these 12% gains with other poorly timed purchases. Hence the strategy.
Bottom line, this market sucks, thus president sucks, and all we can do is dollar cost in and wait for a real turnaround and levels above previous highs.
This logic is absolutely ridiculous. So in 5 years would you rather have you 401k return to its beginning balance or 20+% more than that?
The stock market has only 2 options. It goes up or down. Why are you arguing less is better?
if the max is capped at 8% of your salary, you basically take January’s salary and put 100% into your 401k, then nothing the rest of the year. They let it grow at whatever rate over the year and at the end of it have a pretty sizeable bump in pay even after penalties. It’s dumb, but people see growth on 8% of free money and take it. Sure they will be living in a trailer in retirement but they have Chinese plastic to buy for Christmas
Thank you for displaying the exact attitude/perspective that keeps people from getting wealthy.
My surplus investment account is still in the black despite the major indexes being down 15%-17% in the past year. Why would that be so?
