We'll have none of that positivity crap on here. Signed, DHM47, Mayor of "Realville"
Chances at NCAA's
- Thread starter whatsup13579er
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We'll have none of that positivity crap on here. Signed, DHM47, Mayor of "Realville"
Or they could have...three. Zain, Bo, and Nolf. Even then, Bo and Nolf are going to have some tough matches. McIntosh and Nico as well. A lot has to right for them but they have the bonus horses to do it.
Really, for us to get close, most of our guys have to AA and exceed expectations. Brooks and Burak have to pick us up and finish fourth or higher. Cooper and Meyer have to AA. We need points from Stoll...so wish he wasn't injured.
125-Gilman to the finals and Nico gets beat in the Semis or earlier
133-Clark to the finals and Conaway not to AA
141-Guilbon to go 2-2 or worse
149-Welp
157-Need the freshman to shit the bed...wouldn't count on it but a loss in the semis would be just dandy. Coop has to finish 7 or 8th
165-No real expectations from either
174-See 157. Bo is the one I like more to do this...yes, he's dominant but takes some risks and hopefully someone can make him pay. A fifth or sixth would exceed it for Alex.
184-Need MM to lose out early and Brooks to go to the finals. He can do it but he can also lose a head scratcher in the early rounds.
197-Burak has to get by Hartmann and pull something out. To be honest, if I were coaching him I would play it like this: We've been careful and cautious against MM and have gotten beaten every time. Now's the time to take chances and leave it all out there. Need at least a 3rd or 4th.
HWY-Can Stollhouse leave the pain at the side of the mat? Normally, Stoll would have gotten a very good draw to maybe get to the Semis. He will do well just to get to the quarters and drop down and do some damage.
Now, it hardly ever goes by seed and there are always upsets. Recent history says that we are the ones that shit the bed so we're gonna have to turn it around and keep up. All of our guys are capable but so our theirs...above is a worst case scenario which we are close to needing.
if all that happened we would win by 30, we dont need all that to happen.Some yes,but not all by any means. matter fact a few things here and there would help us. We are not that much out.
PSU dodged a bullet this year thanks to some untimely injuries to OSU.
24 Sandor45,
I think the injuries to Nevills, McCutcheon and Guilibon are similar to OSU's. Certainly the loss for the season of Krutchmer, Brock were season ending and PSU only lost one for the season. However the injuries to McCutcheon and Guilibon have made them less likely to place high. Remember McCutcheon took out Zivatsky 18-4 before he had back and knee injuries and Guilibon had the dreaded "high ankle sprain" that he is just now rounding into shape.
I feel that with both teams at full strength, PSU would have a slight edge due to the more top rung talent. As we have learned over the years, injuries can derail any team's hopes.
24 Sandor45,
I think the injuries to Nevills, McCutcheon and Guilibon are similar to OSU's. Certainly the loss for the season of Krutchmer, Brock were season ending and PSU only lost one for the season. However the injuries to McCutcheon and Guilibon have made them less likely to place high. Remember McCutcheon took out Zivatsky 18-4 before he had back and knee injuries and Guilibon had the dreaded "high ankle sprain" that he is just now rounding into shape.
I feel that with both teams at full strength, PSU would have a slight edge due to the more top rung talent. As we have learned over the years, injuries can derail any team's hopes.
IMO we have a slim shot, it's going to take our guys wrestling lights out and we are going to need some help. My head tells me it's more realistic we are going to have a battle to hang on to 2nd place, which is why i refuse to listen to my head. On the other hand, my heart says we have a shot, so we'll go with that.
More importantly, Thursday begins one of the best weekends of the entire year, right up there with BigTens, and until we are out of it, I am going to assume we are going to win, just as I have every year since I was a little kid. The difference is that I won't have to listen to the radio and wait for updates, I will be able to watch every match as it happens, then I can come back here and get other peoples take on what just happened or what is about to happen. And no matter what the team score, there is going to be great wrestling and great match-ups all week long, and if tradition holds, there will be a Hawk or two to cheer for right up until the end.
What a great week, what a great time to be a wrestling fan, and I wouldn't trade being an Iowa fan for anything. Go Hawks!
More importantly, Thursday begins one of the best weekends of the entire year, right up there with BigTens, and until we are out of it, I am going to assume we are going to win, just as I have every year since I was a little kid. The difference is that I won't have to listen to the radio and wait for updates, I will be able to watch every match as it happens, then I can come back here and get other peoples take on what just happened or what is about to happen. And no matter what the team score, there is going to be great wrestling and great match-ups all week long, and if tradition holds, there will be a Hawk or two to cheer for right up until the end.
What a great week, what a great time to be a wrestling fan, and I wouldn't trade being an Iowa fan for anything. Go Hawks!
You're talking about several improbable outcomes that happened across several decades; this is about all of those events happening in one weekend. It's not that people like me are down on the Hawks; it's that we simply understand the improbable odds of those six events you listed all happening in a 3-day period vice a 40-year period. Trust me, we all want them to win, no matter what the odds. Go Hawks!!
I'm with you...just too many odd things would have to happen in a 3-day period. And since those "odd things" haven't happened in the last three months, like you, I doubt they'll all happen this weekend. Go Hawks!
I'm going to just try to enjoy some good wrestling and not get too emotionally invested in it this year. It's the only way I can move forward in my life.
I don't feel that "too many odd things would have to happen" for the Hawks to win. In the Big 10s, if only a couple of matches had gone another way (Gilman in semis, Burak in finals) the team race would have tightened up quite a bit. If one of PSU's studs should get injured early this weekend (something I'm not hoping for!), then Iowa's chances improve dramatically. The road to a championship for Iowa is not a near-impossible task!
Last years NCAA's probably took a few years off of my life with all of the stress. I could say that I'll try not to this year, but I know right when theres a hawk on the mat my heart starts pounding hoping for the best possible outcome, and if something bad happens my ears & face get all hot like i can just feel the stress mounting in my head lol. Especially if something crazy should happen (which tends to happen at NCAA's) that might give me hope. Uhg.
The odds aren't that crazy. We need 4 in the finals with 2 champs. Burak in top 4. Either Meyer or Stoll to AA and the other to at least Rd 12. Maybe 3 wins between Rhoades and Stoll. This combined with the following will make it very close. They most likely will also have 4 in the finals. They should get two champs also with Retherford and Nickal. Mega most likely finishes 4th if Dance beats him again. This would most likely have are top 6 and their top 6 with the exact same placement points with them a slight lead in bonus points.
We got lucky with Guilbon having a tough draw and could go 1-2 and Morelli also could go 1-2 that would mean that Cooper/Rhoades should equal them for points.
That leaves us probably 6 points behind with us have Meyer/Stoll vs there McCutcheon/Conway. I think Conway falls to the backside early and gets 6th or 7th depending on if he can beat the Virginia kid again, late takedown last time. I think Stoll has a good draw to AA and will finish 8th. Need a 1st Rd pin and hopefully a pin or two in the consi. I think he will outpoint Conway because of bonus. This will probably leave Meyer to outscore McCutchen by 6. I think McCutchen goes 2-2 mainly because of a bad draw/injuries/deep wt class. That leaves Meyer needing to make up the difference. This will require him having a couple big wins possibly over Jackson/Brunson on the backside.
Nothing to crazy. Just need our top 4 to wrestle to their ability. Need Imar to beat Nolf, Cox to beat McIntosh, and Dance to beat Mega.
I would call this better than 100 to 1 odds. PSU is definitely the favorite but we have a shot even without anything to crazy happening.
Hopefully we get some upsets on there side instead of ours. Nickal gets knocked off by Epperly or Smith beats Nolf and avoid Brown/Dudley beating Brooks
We got lucky with Guilbon having a tough draw and could go 1-2 and Morelli also could go 1-2 that would mean that Cooper/Rhoades should equal them for points.
That leaves us probably 6 points behind with us have Meyer/Stoll vs there McCutcheon/Conway. I think Conway falls to the backside early and gets 6th or 7th depending on if he can beat the Virginia kid again, late takedown last time. I think Stoll has a good draw to AA and will finish 8th. Need a 1st Rd pin and hopefully a pin or two in the consi. I think he will outpoint Conway because of bonus. This will probably leave Meyer to outscore McCutchen by 6. I think McCutchen goes 2-2 mainly because of a bad draw/injuries/deep wt class. That leaves Meyer needing to make up the difference. This will require him having a couple big wins possibly over Jackson/Brunson on the backside.
Nothing to crazy. Just need our top 4 to wrestle to their ability. Need Imar to beat Nolf, Cox to beat McIntosh, and Dance to beat Mega.
I would call this better than 100 to 1 odds. PSU is definitely the favorite but we have a shot even without anything to crazy happening.
Hopefully we get some upsets on there side instead of ours. Nickal gets knocked off by Epperly or Smith beats Nolf and avoid Brown/Dudley beating Brooks
wow a lot of you guys are wound alittle to tight. i'm going out there and hoping for the best I pray we can pull it out of our butt. if we don't I still get to spend time with my boys, I still have pay bills the next week and I will still be a hawk fan for the rest of my life, really though i'm looking for 6 or 7 aa's and 2 champs, if that's not good enough to win it, sucks life goes on. we wil all argue amongst ourselves and the nits will troll and gloat, screw em.
I expect us to compete for the national championship because that is the standard that our coaches, athletes, administration and fans expect. PSU is heavily favored... no question about it but anything can happen at the nationals.
I want to see Iowa wrestle above their seeds. I want to see a couple guys like Meyer and Cooper break through. I want to see Gilman take the next step. I want to see Brooks prove to the country that he deserves the #2 seed. I want to see an individual national champion... Clark, Gilman, Sorenson, Brooks, Burak are all capable on a good night. I truly believe that.
Winning this year will take 8-9 guys peaking at the right time. It's been done before... 1997.
I want to see Iowa wrestle above their seeds. I want to see a couple guys like Meyer and Cooper break through. I want to see Gilman take the next step. I want to see Brooks prove to the country that he deserves the #2 seed. I want to see an individual national champion... Clark, Gilman, Sorenson, Brooks, Burak are all capable on a good night. I truly believe that.
Winning this year will take 8-9 guys peaking at the right time. It's been done before... 1997.
Great input guys and now we're only a couple of days away. It sounds like it will be a tough hill to climb to get to the top but not impossible. Hopefully it all comes together this weekend in NYC.
Im with you on this one. Last year was our best chance at a team tile for awhile because it was in our sights and I saw what PSU was reloading for and I knew how good Nickel, Nolf and co would be.
Perpetual 3rd places kind of have a way of watering down expectations. That and the elite PSU guys just are not prone to upsets. Ive spent too much time wishing Ruth or Taylor would get upset to think Nolf or Nickel will be any different.
Ive shifted to its all about the individual. Mostly Clark and Gilman. The most emotion I will have will be Friday night for Gilman vs Nato because I honestly believe he will win the 125 title but its a OT coin flip with the top 4 so to speak. Gilman needs to wrestle like he did prior but just a tad smarter. If he gets Nico back on his feet for another minute, that 2nd stall call was coming.
But you could tell how far Gilman had come, he went from barely hanging with Nico 2 years ago to becoming the hunter. PSU fans darn well know what they saw in that match too. Nico is content to drop to his knees and wrap the arm around and eat clock. I like Nico and I get it, but it needs to be called in NYC on Nico once he gets to the semis or the finals. But it wont. I cant wait for TOMA. I have no idea what NATO would do if he fell behind a guy in the 1st period. Or Nico. They would have to retire the skates.
[QUOTE="Ihawkd9times, post: 2433321, member: 9838" I cant wait for TOMA. I have no idea what NATO would do if he fell behind a guy in the 1st period. Or Nico. They would have to retire the skates.[/QUOTE]
This, if TG can grab a takedown in the first period in the NaTo match, I think our chances grow exponentially. Gilman has the desire and ability, he just needs to wrestle extremely smart against a guy like NaTo.
This, if TG can grab a takedown in the first period in the NaTo match, I think our chances grow exponentially. Gilman has the desire and ability, he just needs to wrestle extremely smart against a guy like NaTo.
Iowa vs PSU
125- Gilman possible finalist has returning undeafeated champ in way will be tough Mega toss up semi won't beat Toma either. Gilman will get 3rd and I think he beats Mega if they meet up Mega will get 2nd or 4th but I think he beats Dance. Advantage PSU.
133- Clark Tough semi no gimme I have him at 2nd. Conoway is R12-7th quality gets beat by Taylor in Rd2 Tough road back. Advantage Iowa
141- Gulibon Unseeded but returning AA won't be an easy out. Grothus Cheering on team from stands hopefully gets them pumped but can't do much in team race. Advantage PSU.
149- Zain is to good IMO will win Maybe closer if he wrestles Brandon. A big if I like him to make the finals but Tshirt or Mayes will be a battle in semis after a tough QF against Sueflohn. Advantage PSU.
157- COOOOP... got teched by Nolf. Nolf is a stud and probable finalist maybe champ no lower than 3rd. Cooper will have to wrestle better than he did at B10's to AA. Advantage PSU.
165- Not much coming from either team at this weight no AA's hopefully Rhoads gets a couple wins but can't hope/expect anything more. Advantage Iowa.
174- Meyer isn't hot right now will have to show up to be on the podium at MSG. Hopefully sees Nickal in semis unlikely but won't go our way anyways. Nickal is wrestling like the champ he will be. Advantage PSU.
184- Sammy though looking good right now has gruesome road to finals as does anyone in this bracket. Want to see him make it but just don't see it he AA's at 5-8 place. McCutcheon still overated at 16 seed will get torched by anyone on frontside after Rd1 won't touch podium. Advantage Iowa.
197- I think Hartmann from duke gives both Burak and McIntosch fits and makes finals. that being said Burak will not beat MM if they meet Burak finishes 4-7. MM is 3rd IMO but still another possible champ for PSU. Advantage PSU.
285- I believe I heard Stoll has torn ACL don't know truth behind this but he looked affected by it at B10's. Brightside PSU has no one. Stoll will have to Make great run to AA but injury will be too costly. Advantage Iowa.
PSU has at least 2 and up to 5 champs they are just too powerful to be beaten.
Iowa has 0 to a very unlikley 3 champs very far fetched IMO just can't happen this year.
Go Hawks!
125- Gilman possible finalist has returning undeafeated champ in way will be tough Mega toss up semi won't beat Toma either. Gilman will get 3rd and I think he beats Mega if they meet up Mega will get 2nd or 4th but I think he beats Dance. Advantage PSU.
133- Clark Tough semi no gimme I have him at 2nd. Conoway is R12-7th quality gets beat by Taylor in Rd2 Tough road back. Advantage Iowa
141- Gulibon Unseeded but returning AA won't be an easy out. Grothus Cheering on team from stands hopefully gets them pumped but can't do much in team race. Advantage PSU.
149- Zain is to good IMO will win Maybe closer if he wrestles Brandon. A big if I like him to make the finals but Tshirt or Mayes will be a battle in semis after a tough QF against Sueflohn. Advantage PSU.
157- COOOOP... got teched by Nolf. Nolf is a stud and probable finalist maybe champ no lower than 3rd. Cooper will have to wrestle better than he did at B10's to AA. Advantage PSU.
165- Not much coming from either team at this weight no AA's hopefully Rhoads gets a couple wins but can't hope/expect anything more. Advantage Iowa.
174- Meyer isn't hot right now will have to show up to be on the podium at MSG. Hopefully sees Nickal in semis unlikely but won't go our way anyways. Nickal is wrestling like the champ he will be. Advantage PSU.
184- Sammy though looking good right now has gruesome road to finals as does anyone in this bracket. Want to see him make it but just don't see it he AA's at 5-8 place. McCutcheon still overated at 16 seed will get torched by anyone on frontside after Rd1 won't touch podium. Advantage Iowa.
197- I think Hartmann from duke gives both Burak and McIntosch fits and makes finals. that being said Burak will not beat MM if they meet Burak finishes 4-7. MM is 3rd IMO but still another possible champ for PSU. Advantage PSU.
285- I believe I heard Stoll has torn ACL don't know truth behind this but he looked affected by it at B10's. Brightside PSU has no one. Stoll will have to Make great run to AA but injury will be too costly. Advantage Iowa.
PSU has at least 2 and up to 5 champs they are just too powerful to be beaten.
Iowa has 0 to a very unlikley 3 champs very far fetched IMO just can't happen this year.
Go Hawks!
I see 3 finalist at 125, 133 and 149.
Frankly, BS would have to have the match of his life to beat Zain.
Burak is a 3/4 unless he get hot. 2nd is his top for me.
Brooks can make the finals. Winning big 10 will be a factor. 3rd is his probable finish. If he westles like he is capable, a 4th finalist is possible.
Mayer has been cold but some guys wake up in March. A 5 to 7 is very possible be he needs to be on.
ACL injury is super tough however AA is not out of the cards. I do t see him too 4 but he could very easily sneak 6-8.
Cooper and Rhoads would have to score 5 to 6 points to be real contributors.
7 AA's would be a fantastic finish for this team.
PSU has the guns. I see 5 real AA's for them but they will be high AA.
For Iowa or anyone to have a chance, PSU has to stumble. They have been on a good streak for a few years in March. The winds have blown their way. Their guys are damn tough no doubt. But if the winds shift it could open things up. Iowa must break 100 points to do it.
3 best teams are PSU, Iowa and OSU. These three in some order will be the ones to beat. Smart money says PSU, Iowa and OSU. Bad luck shuffles that deck.
Frankly, BS would have to have the match of his life to beat Zain.
Burak is a 3/4 unless he get hot. 2nd is his top for me.
Brooks can make the finals. Winning big 10 will be a factor. 3rd is his probable finish. If he westles like he is capable, a 4th finalist is possible.
Mayer has been cold but some guys wake up in March. A 5 to 7 is very possible be he needs to be on.
ACL injury is super tough however AA is not out of the cards. I do t see him too 4 but he could very easily sneak 6-8.
Cooper and Rhoads would have to score 5 to 6 points to be real contributors.
7 AA's would be a fantastic finish for this team.
PSU has the guns. I see 5 real AA's for them but they will be high AA.
For Iowa or anyone to have a chance, PSU has to stumble. They have been on a good streak for a few years in March. The winds have blown their way. Their guys are damn tough no doubt. But if the winds shift it could open things up. Iowa must break 100 points to do it.
3 best teams are PSU, Iowa and OSU. These three in some order will be the ones to beat. Smart money says PSU, Iowa and OSU. Bad luck shuffles that deck.
I agree 100 % with your analogy. So if Coop wins 157 Iowa will be National Champs.
Iowa best case Scenario: (CP already covered the worst case scenario with an 8th place finish)
Gilman: Champ.. Not that much of a stretch. He is capable of beating any of the other top 4, his match with megaludis gave me confidence, because he gave the match to Megaludis more than Megaludis actually won it. He looked like a new man vs Mega. 2 years ago, he had to fight like hell just to lose 4-1 and stay in the match. Plus his career record vs Tomasello. I think many have forgotten their big ten finals a year ago. Tomasello got a takedown and was literally on skates the rest of the match.
Clark: Champ... We all know he can beat richards and make his second NCAA final. Every claims Garrett is some unbeatable force this year, but if you look at ALL of his matches this past season, there have been a number of guys that have kept it close who arent near Clarks caliber. A close match is anybodys ball game, especially with somebody with the scrambling ability and hustle clark has, he fights all the way through every position.
Garrett over Delvecchio(18-6) dec 6-1
Garrett over Richardson(21-13) dec 4-1
Garrett over Saavedra(14-5) dec 4-1
Garrett over Richardson 2nd time 8-3
Garrett over Giraldo dec 6-1
Point being, Clark can most definitely make a match out of this, but he has to wrestle a lot smarter than he did last year against Brewer, whom he gave about 3 free takedowns too off of his errant shots diving at the legs, easily countered by Brewer.
Sorensen: Runner up... Does what he's done all season, beat everybody except Retherford. Never in danger of losing any of his matches other than B1G final.
Cooper: 7/8 AA... He has to beat Berger, whom he defeated 7-6 in the dual meet. Then if he loses to Miller, he will have a road of Brian Murphy in the R16 (he lost 2-1 in 2OT in rideouts to him in 3rd place match at B1GS), he can reverse the outcome of that match. If he wins that, he would have Cody Pack in the R12 (Lost 6-5 at Midlands to him), Coop has come a long way since Midlands and is wrestling with more confidence than i've ever seen him before. He can reverse the outcome of that match too. That would put him on the podium, and give us much needed points, that it doesn't look like many expect out of Cooper.
Rhoads: Just win a match or two, score some points for us. Every little bit helps, you never know how close it will be on saturday night.
Meyer: has one of 3 different Paths IMO. If he wins his first, then loses to Ramos.. he'll have to face the loser of Brunson/Jackson in the R16, then the loser of Walters/Realbuto in R12. His least likely path to AA, but he could do it. Or he beats Ramos, then loses to Brunson/Jackson in the Quarters.. he'll likely have to face Ottinger or Harvey in the R12 which is a much better matchup for him than Walters IMO. Then best case scenario, he beats Ramos, then beats Jackson/Brunson and makes the semis vs Nickal. Hopefully he gets hot and its the latter of the 3 scenarios.
Brooks: Runner Up.. Has the ability to be wrestling saturday night. He's beaten,Gravina, Dudley, and Avery which would be his path if seeds hold, but theres also Stauffer and Brown who could throw a wrench into things, both tough matches, but no tougher than Dudley and Avery. He can make the finals.
Burak: 3rd place... I think he gets by Hartmann in the quarters, loses to McIntosh and then wins 2 for 3rd. Could be a surprise finalist if he somehow manages to find a way to finally win one against McIntosh, and what sweeter time could there be for it than your SR year, taking away a PSU finalist and giving Iowa one. But I'll count on 3rd for now.
Stoll: Actually has a pretty manageable draw. it will depend how much 'healthier' hes gotten in the last 2 weeks. Hopefully its enough to get my Dejournette in the 2nd round, then he would have the loser of Wessel/Kroells in the R12 most likely. If he loses to Dejournette his path to AA will be first through Cabell in R16, a winnable match but a pretty athletic Hwt IIRC, and then the winner of Kroells/Wessell on the top side, who will be waiting in the quarters after falling the Gwiaz. I could realistically see Stoll scrapping his way onto the podium but it all depends on his health.
So if you take a best case scenario It might look something like this
Gilman 1
Clark 1
Sorensen 2
Cooper 8
Rhoads 2-2
Meyer 8
Brooks 2
Burak 3
Stoll 8
Would that be enough to win it?
Gilman: Champ.. Not that much of a stretch. He is capable of beating any of the other top 4, his match with megaludis gave me confidence, because he gave the match to Megaludis more than Megaludis actually won it. He looked like a new man vs Mega. 2 years ago, he had to fight like hell just to lose 4-1 and stay in the match. Plus his career record vs Tomasello. I think many have forgotten their big ten finals a year ago. Tomasello got a takedown and was literally on skates the rest of the match.
Clark: Champ... We all know he can beat richards and make his second NCAA final. Every claims Garrett is some unbeatable force this year, but if you look at ALL of his matches this past season, there have been a number of guys that have kept it close who arent near Clarks caliber. A close match is anybodys ball game, especially with somebody with the scrambling ability and hustle clark has, he fights all the way through every position.
Garrett over Delvecchio(18-6) dec 6-1
Garrett over Richardson(21-13) dec 4-1
Garrett over Saavedra(14-5) dec 4-1
Garrett over Richardson 2nd time 8-3
Garrett over Giraldo dec 6-1
Point being, Clark can most definitely make a match out of this, but he has to wrestle a lot smarter than he did last year against Brewer, whom he gave about 3 free takedowns too off of his errant shots diving at the legs, easily countered by Brewer.
Sorensen: Runner up... Does what he's done all season, beat everybody except Retherford. Never in danger of losing any of his matches other than B1G final.
Cooper: 7/8 AA... He has to beat Berger, whom he defeated 7-6 in the dual meet. Then if he loses to Miller, he will have a road of Brian Murphy in the R16 (he lost 2-1 in 2OT in rideouts to him in 3rd place match at B1GS), he can reverse the outcome of that match. If he wins that, he would have Cody Pack in the R12 (Lost 6-5 at Midlands to him), Coop has come a long way since Midlands and is wrestling with more confidence than i've ever seen him before. He can reverse the outcome of that match too. That would put him on the podium, and give us much needed points, that it doesn't look like many expect out of Cooper.
Rhoads: Just win a match or two, score some points for us. Every little bit helps, you never know how close it will be on saturday night.
Meyer: has one of 3 different Paths IMO. If he wins his first, then loses to Ramos.. he'll have to face the loser of Brunson/Jackson in the R16, then the loser of Walters/Realbuto in R12. His least likely path to AA, but he could do it. Or he beats Ramos, then loses to Brunson/Jackson in the Quarters.. he'll likely have to face Ottinger or Harvey in the R12 which is a much better matchup for him than Walters IMO. Then best case scenario, he beats Ramos, then beats Jackson/Brunson and makes the semis vs Nickal. Hopefully he gets hot and its the latter of the 3 scenarios.
Brooks: Runner Up.. Has the ability to be wrestling saturday night. He's beaten,Gravina, Dudley, and Avery which would be his path if seeds hold, but theres also Stauffer and Brown who could throw a wrench into things, both tough matches, but no tougher than Dudley and Avery. He can make the finals.
Burak: 3rd place... I think he gets by Hartmann in the quarters, loses to McIntosh and then wins 2 for 3rd. Could be a surprise finalist if he somehow manages to find a way to finally win one against McIntosh, and what sweeter time could there be for it than your SR year, taking away a PSU finalist and giving Iowa one. But I'll count on 3rd for now.
Stoll: Actually has a pretty manageable draw. it will depend how much 'healthier' hes gotten in the last 2 weeks. Hopefully its enough to get my Dejournette in the 2nd round, then he would have the loser of Wessel/Kroells in the R12 most likely. If he loses to Dejournette his path to AA will be first through Cabell in R16, a winnable match but a pretty athletic Hwt IIRC, and then the winner of Kroells/Wessell on the top side, who will be waiting in the quarters after falling the Gwiaz. I could realistically see Stoll scrapping his way onto the podium but it all depends on his health.
So if you take a best case scenario It might look something like this
Gilman 1
Clark 1
Sorensen 2
Cooper 8
Rhoads 2-2
Meyer 8
Brooks 2
Burak 3
Stoll 8
Would that be enough to win it?
Yes maybe. Quick math is figure 25 points per champ and 20 per runner ups. so that's 90 just in 4 guys. 15 more for burak is 105. Then your giving out 3 more AA's to Cooper, Meyer and Stoll. That's my same formula I posted earlier to win. that's 115- 120 ish points.
I think PSU would be right in that ballpark but it would be down to the wire. Would definatly need Zain to win the only title for them and Nico to lose to Dance and Nolf to Imart and Nickel to Realbutto or hopefully someone goes Nate Jackson on him and catches him. Also need Mac to lose.
That could put PSU with one champ 25 + 3 runner ups 60= 85 plus Nico 4th 95. then gullibon, conaway and McCutcheon have to figure 15 for the trio = 110
Of course this is Iowa very best case and PSU not failing apart but only producing one champ out of 5 elites guys.
Never thought Meyer barely making AA would be considered "best case scenario", but realistically, that's where we're at.
I'd like to see you actually compute those odds. Breaking it down, what would you say is the % of chance on each of these:
Gilman in finals
Gilman champ
Clark in finals
Clark champ
Sorenson in finals
Sorenson champ
Brooks in finals
Brooks champ
Burak in top 4
Meyer or Stoll AA
Mine would be (and I think these are pretty optimistic, btw)
Gilman in finals (50%)
Gilman champ (20%)
Clark in finals (50%)
Clark champ (20%)
Sorenson in finals (50%)
Sorenson champ (20%)
Brooks in finals (20%)
Brooks champ (5%)
Burak in top 4 (60%)
Meyer or Stoll AA (60%)
Without computing it all the way, I think that leaves us with about 1 in 1000 chance of achieving this. I'm taking Tarp's approach; just enjoy good wrestling and cheer for each individual Hawkeye.
Wow Chow! That was painful to read, grammatically. A thoughtful analysis, but off on several items. First, Cooper wrestled fantastic at Big 10s - if he wrestles as well this weekend, he'll AA. Second, you (and most everyone else) seems to sell Brooks short - I'm confident the mullet will give him the mojo he needs to at least make semis, and place in top 4. Finally, all Hawk fans should have confidence that Gilman and Clark will both win it all - their skill set (technique, mental toughness, physicality, etc.) points to championships.
Ill make it as simple as possible. Gilman, Clark, Sorenson and Burak will get theirs and at the very least be in the top 4.
Iowa comes down to what Brooks does. Brooks is like 80% of the X factor for Iowa's team race. The other 20% is...Meyer and Stoll.
The rest is just hoping other teams guys show up against PSU.
Iowa comes down to what Brooks does. Brooks is like 80% of the X factor for Iowa's team race. The other 20% is...Meyer and Stoll.
The rest is just hoping other teams guys show up against PSU.
Hahaha - this gave me a big laugh to start the day! You give Sorensen the same chance of beating Retherford as Gilman beating Garrett or Clark beating whomever?! You think there's a decent chance Burak won't finish top 4?! It would be interesting to know your reasoning for these percentages, and the "1 in 1000 chance" statement - bizarre! You really have no confidence in Iowa wrestlers, do you?
Good synopsis...and the shortest statement I've ever seen you post! hahaha
I was trying to be very optimistic for argument's sake. If you think his chances are less than that, then by all means make that adjustment and compute your own odds. I'm not sure what you mean by having no confidence in the wrestlers; we have no #1 ranked guys and only two #2 ranked guys. That makes it pretty clear that two champions and four finalists is a big longshot. It's not a case of confidence, it takes rose-lensed classes to expect most of our guys to exceed their rank and for nobody to tank.
The 1 in 1000 was from briefly doing the math. For instance, 50% x 50% x 50% x 20% is about 6% chance of having four guys in the finals. Add in two champs and you're going well below 1%.
If you think my odds are "bizarre", then be my guess and plug your own numbers in.
The reality is that numbers/odds can't really be placed on something like this. There isn't a large enough sampling size (previous competition between the same wrestlers) to determine the outcome of a certain match. The #2 seed is most likely equal to #1 seed, and if they wrestled 10 times, each would win 5 (generally speaking - of course there are dominant wrestlers who win most any time, no matter the opponent). The fact that Gilman, Clark and Brooks are seeded #2, and Burak #4, has little bearing on how they'll actually place.
Your analysis is correct if the NCAA were having a coin flipping competition this week. Wrestling, at least in my experience, is not a random event.
