Simple is good, all that number crunching is for those equipped with extrasensory knowledge. Looking at your simplified model, I'm not seeing enough to beat PSU.
Chances at NCAA's
- Thread starter whatsup13579er
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It would be random if every match had a 50% chance. But we can make reasonable estimations of expected finishes that are far, far more accurate than randomness. I was responding to a post that specifically mentioned the "odds." Everything is life is a candidate for quantitative analysis, and sports are perhaps subjected to it more than anything else we encounter on a regular basis. For instance, I can say with a pretty high degree of confidence that Iowa will score between 80 and 120 points. And I can say with a pretty high degree of confidence that Iowa will place higher than fifth. None of this is random, it's based on things we know about each team and their wrestlers.
I'm simply saying that each of us is capable of placing our own estimate of chances on each specific occurrence that the poster mentioned, and then compute the math to project the odds of the entire spectrum of events occurring if his own assumptions are true. My point was that if crhawkwrestling were to make his best estimate on each wrestler's chances of finishing according to his hopes, the math itself would demonstrate that even by his own optimistic predictions the "odds" would be daunting.
It's very easy to be both fair and accurate when calculating the odds.
For instance, Gilman is about as close to a lock as someone can get to making the semis. Still, upsets happen. I would put his chances at about 96 %. The odds that Tomasello is his opponent are at least that high. So you can adjust his semi final winning odds by roughly 4 % after assigning a likely percentage of his winning vs Tomasello. Regardless of us believing Gilman will beat Tomasello, he is undefeated and the defending NCAA Champ and 2x B1G CHAMP. So I would assign a 45% likelihood for Gilman. You can then adjust that by the 4% chance Tomasello is upset prior to then. So you would then have .96x(.45+.4)=.47 or a 47% chance that Gilman makes the finals. He would then most likely meet Megaludis or Dance. The odds of either of them getting upset and not making it should be about the same as Gilman, however, the odds of both not making it would be about 1%. If Gilman makes the finals I would say his likelihood of winning is 50%+1% for upset factor. Finally, .47x.51=.2397 or 23.97%
Gilman should be their best odds at a champ, but Sorenson has the best odds at making the finals.
For instance, Gilman is about as close to a lock as someone can get to making the semis. Still, upsets happen. I would put his chances at about 96 %. The odds that Tomasello is his opponent are at least that high. So you can adjust his semi final winning odds by roughly 4 % after assigning a likely percentage of his winning vs Tomasello. Regardless of us believing Gilman will beat Tomasello, he is undefeated and the defending NCAA Champ and 2x B1G CHAMP. So I would assign a 45% likelihood for Gilman. You can then adjust that by the 4% chance Tomasello is upset prior to then. So you would then have .96x(.45+.4)=.47 or a 47% chance that Gilman makes the finals. He would then most likely meet Megaludis or Dance. The odds of either of them getting upset and not making it should be about the same as Gilman, however, the odds of both not making it would be about 1%. If Gilman makes the finals I would say his likelihood of winning is 50%+1% for upset factor. Finally, .47x.51=.2397 or 23.97%
Gilman should be their best odds at a champ, but Sorenson has the best odds at making the finals.
Your 47% for finalists pretty much matches my 50% guesstimate, but you have convinced me on his chances of winning. In fact, I'll update him and Clark both to 25% chance of winning it all. That would give us a 1/16 chance of them both winning it all.
I'll try to get you to understand this again. We each have the ability to make an educated estimation of each of our guy's chances of, say, making it to the finals. After all, I would hope you're willing to acknowledge that the chances of the #1 seed winning his bracket is higher than the #10 seed. Unless you are incapable or unwilling to place a % on everybody's chances, then, given an individual's opinion we can then use pure math to compute the odds of a series of events happening.
So if crhawkwrestling thinks Gilman has an 80% chance of making it to the finals, Clark has a 70% chance, and Sorenson has a 70% chance, we can then state that, if crhawk is correct, there is a 40% chance that all three make it to the finals. If he then thinks there's an 80% chance that either Brooks or Burak will make it to the finals, then based on his own opinion there is about a 32% chance that we have four wrestlers in the finals.
I'm not saying crhawk can accurately predict the odds. I'm saying that if he makes his own best guess on each individual accomplishment, the math will then show that the odds of everything falling into place will be remote.
This bolded statement is the only part of your posts that IMO is not supported by the law of probabilities. Those calculations don't work for non-random events. In other words, lets say Retherford has a 99% chances of winning each match. If Retherfords matches were random events, his probability of winning the each additional match would be continually reduced. In fact, since he's 29-0, the probablity of him winning his next match - #30 - is in the 40% area if computed as a random event or roll of the dice. Since Retherford's match results are anything but random (rolls of the dice), the probability of his continuing to win is not reduced much if at all below the 99%.
We aren't using random probability. We are trying to use the most likely and accepted percentages of winning matches. If I were to calculate Retherford's likely run to the Finals. I would base it on the likely outcome of his wrestling 1000 matches against each opponent assuming some small chance of injuries, illnesses, etc.
Retherford vs. Vassar/Hammond(99.8%), vs. Dippery/Lugo(99.8%), vs Henderson/Oliver(Most likely)(98.7%), vs Pantaleo/Cimato(most likely)(98%), vs Sorenson(91%). So you would have: .998X.998X.987X.98X.91=87.7% likelihood of winning the tournament. Take a look at the odds Vegas gives for Retherford winning. I would be surprised if the odds make him an even more likely favorite than that percentage does!
Retherford vs. Vassar/Hammond(99.8%), vs. Dippery/Lugo(99.8%), vs Henderson/Oliver(Most likely)(98.7%), vs Pantaleo/Cimato(most likely)(98%), vs Sorenson(91%). So you would have: .998X.998X.987X.98X.91=87.7% likelihood of winning the tournament. Take a look at the odds Vegas gives for Retherford winning. I would be surprised if the odds make him an even more likely favorite than that percentage does!
I think I at least understand your argument now, but you are wrong -- not as a matter of opinion but as a matter of fact.
If you believe Retherford has a 99% chance of winning each match, his chances of winning five straight matches are .99x.99x.99x.99x.99 = 95%. This is statistics and isn't really up to debate. I'm not sure why you think math stops working when humans are involved.
So, if there is a math , spelling or grammar problem prior to each match we can conclude that Northwestern will exponentially improve their tournament point totals.....my question is which school suffers the most?? Where are the Vegas odds on that? I'll hang up and listen
Stanford might raise their odds better than Northwestern. But I'll let pablow and Art figure the exact percentages out . If that 's OK with them???
I'm with you...the numbers just aren't there. I think success for Iowa as measured by each individual wrestler's realistic chances to get to the finals, semi-finals, podium, etc., and the strength of the competition, is a 3rd place finish. Anything worse and I would call the year a quasi-failure from a team perspective. Anything better than 3rd, and we'll be partying in Hawkland! We've got some great boys...I just want to see them give it their best, get through the tourney with no injuries and make some shit happen!!
Go Hawks!!
I concur with your comments regarding the B10s. That could have easily swung our way, as you said. However, in the NCAAs, we're going to need more than a few matches swing our way. IMO, for us to win I we're going to need our guys to really bring it, a couple PSU boys to choke early and get eliminated early, and a couple Okie boys to choke early and get eliminated early. And I just can't see them both choking that much, whereas I unfortunately predict 2 of the following 4 [Meyer, Rhoads, Cooper (though I love how he's wrestling), and Stoll (depending on his injury)] will lose in Session 1, and the other 2 will lose in Session 2)...and losing that early will make it a tough road to the podium, which is where I think we'll need 2 of them if we want to beat PSU or Okie. I love our boys, but we're going to need some serious magic...
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