Early line
- Thread starter LarryMullenJr.
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Spread is currently at +6.5.
Right where I thought it would be.
99% of the time Vegas is begging you to take the Michigan State type team with an unusual small spread in a game like this.
And 99% of the time, take the team that it doesn’t make any sense. Be nervous all game. Enjoy the nonsensical payout when you win on a crazy spread game.
For some reason I think this Iowa team breaks the norm on betting these games.
I like Mich St -6.5
Right where I thought it would be.
99% of the time Vegas is begging you to take the Michigan State type team with an unusual small spread in a game like this.
And 99% of the time, take the team that it doesn’t make any sense. Be nervous all game. Enjoy the nonsensical payout when you win on a crazy spread game.
For some reason I think this Iowa team breaks the norm on betting these games.
I like Mich St -6.5
LMFAO!!!!
So you want me to triple prove I was right?!?!
Or quadruple?!
How do I chump you when I’m just simply trying to lay on the couch?!?!
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The Bank was open for business!!😎
So 6.5 was "right where you thought it would be", given that it's a "nonsensical, crazy, and unusually small spread"? Hmmm?
Yes, Vegas sometimes invites action on a side. But it's nowhere near 99% of the time when a spread appears off. Sometimes that number had already been higher and taken heavy action. So the spread moves to catch action on the other side, so Vegas doesn't have heavy liability on one side.
And yes, sometimes Vegas doesn't mind the money on one side. But again, nowhere near 99% does the unexpected team beat the fishy spread. Everyone would know about it and would absolutely crush those spots.
Did you bet on MSU-6.5, or just "like it"? Because if Iowa were to have beat that spread 99% of the time, I just don't see how you would ever bet the other way. I don't even see how you would ever even lay off of the game. I would just bet Iowa 100% of the time and roll with my 99% chances.
Also, if you bet the game, I would think you thought you had at least a couple points worth of edge, to have bet it. That's crazy how you knew this would be the one out of hundred games in which the output of the teams varied by several points.
Turns out 85% of the money last night was on MSU. Iowa was rolling and Vegas was in line for a big payday. And what'd they do to bring that payday home? The refs called 28 2nd half fouls on Iowa and Vegas got crushed on the game. But of course this was the 1% of the time that Iowa doesn't beat a spread like that. 🤔
And no, 6.5 wasn't even an unusually low spread. That's a ton of points to be favored by on the road, and Iowa had beaten MSU straight up 5 of their previous 6 matchups
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