ESPN Bracketology, Updated MARCH 13. IOWA is a 5 Seed in CHICAGO Regional. Bracket Matrix on MARCH 13 has IOWA a 5 Seed. #14 NET Ranking on March 13

SotaHawk87

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Agree. Play a 6 seed in the first round. Win and likely play a 3 seed in the 2nd round.


I think @TheTruthTheWholeTruth is on to something.

358: Total D1 men's basketball teams

341: Iowa's nonconference strength of schedule

91: Iowa's overall strength of schedule
FWIW the strength of schedule the committee will use has Iowas SOS at 61 and non con at 276.
 

Franisdaman

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Just follow the Net. As long as Iowa is in the top 25 of the Net they are in. If Iowa falls outside the top 30 it's probably bubble time. I think NC State might be the highest ranked Net team to not make the field at 33 but don't quote me on that.


NC State, indeed. This is what TheTruth posted exactly one week ago:


I keep going back to NC State 2019 with a NCSOS of 353.

They went 9-9 in the ACC and had a pre tourney NET of 33.

Q1 3-9 Q2 5-0 Q3 4-2 Q4 10-0

Missed the tournament.

Iowa is currently in a better position than that NC State squad but they can’t afford a Q3 loss at this point. Especially with the lack of Q1 wins. There’s no guarantee that a .500 conference record seals the deal, especially if all the do is hold serve by beating the dregs of the conference.
 

StormHawk42

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@Franisdaman You should really not include Palm on the updates. He’s one of the absolute worst according to the Matrix. FWIW, the #1 guy has us as the second 7 seed.

Edit: just saw he slipped to #9 on the rankings but still reputable
 
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Fighter of the Nightman

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^ I’d love to be in the room where they decide this stuff. For example, say Illinois gets up to the 3/4 seed line. Do you put them in Chicago to “protect” them as a “protected” seed and for the sellout, or does that kind of screw over the 1-seed in that region?
 

Franisdaman

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Mike DeCourcy is a Sporting News college hoops columnist and a Big Ten Network studio analyst.

He does a Bracket Forecast for Fox Sports.

He has the same 7 B1G teams in the Tournament as Joe Lunardi of ESPN.

Seed/Team:
2 Wisconsin
3 Purdue
3 Michigan State
5 Ohio State
6 Illinois
9 IOWA
9 Indiana


His Full Bracket:


FJ-BNGHVkAEwP5r








FJ-CyhPUUAAmijX







FJ-CanAVQAAFUeL
 

Franisdaman

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@Franisdaman You should really not include Palm on the updates. He’s one of the absolute worst according to the Matrix. FWIW, the #1 guy has us as the second 7 seed.

Edit: just saw he slipped to #9 on the rankings but still reputable


Iowa has 14 wins, of course. Do you think he and Mike DeCourcy have us as a 9 seed mostly based on who we have beaten so far?

Per KenPom:

338: Iowa's Nonconference Strength of Schedule
...91: Iowa's Overall Strength of Schedule


Here are the KenPom Ranks of who we have beaten, as of January 25, 2022:


10 Iowa Nonconference Wins:

326..Western Michigan
316..Alabama State
309..NC Central
303..Portland State

276..Southeastern Louisiana
256...Kansas City
.215...Western Illinois


164...Longwood

...93...Virginia
...71...Utah State


4 Iowa Conference Wins:

...83...Maryland (home win)
...33...Indiana (home win)
...89...Minnesota (away win)
...78...Penn State (home win)
 
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StormHawk42

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Iowa has 14 wins, of course. Do you think he and Mike DeCourcy have us as a 9 seed mostly based on who we have beaten so far?

Per KenPom:

338: Iowa's Nonconference Strength of Schedule
...91: Iowa's Overall Strength of Schedule


Here are the KenPom Ranks of who we have beaten, as of January 25, 2022:


10 Iowa Nonconference Wins:

326..Western Michigan
316..Alabama State
309..NC Central
303..Portland State

276..Southeastern Louisiana
256...Kansas City
.215...Western Illinois


164...Longwood

...93...Virginia
...71...Utah State


4 Iowa Conference Wins:

...83...Maryland
...33...Indiana
...89...Minnesota
...78...Penn State
I think without a signature win, it certainly knocks us down a seed line. If we have 0 Q1 wins, probably knocks us down 2 lines.

It’s a very vanilla resume. But the cut line has some real bland stuff on there. Also important that we don’t have a bad loss and most bubble teams do. That’s a big key.
 

BigOHawk

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Bubble looks to be very weak, if Iowa beats who we are supposed to and steals a game or so vs a ranked team we should be dancing, which would probably exceed most of our expectations given the loss of Nunge, Garza and Weezy.
 

Mohawkeye

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Bubble looks to be very weak, if Iowa beats who we are supposed to and steals a game or so vs a ranked team we should be dancing, which would probably exceed most of our expectations given the loss of Nunge, Garza and Weezy.
I don’t think we even have to beat a ranked opponent. Just no bad losses. Michigan is coming on though, that’s a game I think will be crucial. They have a crappy record but are playing well and have plenty of talent.
 

Franisdaman

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Mike DeCourcy is a Sporting News college hoops columnist and a Big Ten Network studio analyst.

He does a Bracket Forecast for Fox Sports.

Michigan is part of the Next 4 OUT.

He has the same 7 B1G teams in the Tournament as Joe Lunardi of ESPN.

Is a 10 seed too low?


Seed/Team:
2 Purdue
2 Wisconsin
4 Michigan State
5 Ohio State
6 Illinois
8 Indiana
10 IOWA


His Full Bracket:


FKNSqDLUcAIDPgv



FKNTnSzVgAAKB-m



FKNUIvpUYAII01H
 
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Franisdaman

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Bubble looks to be very weak, if Iowa beats who we are supposed to and steals a game or so vs a ranked team we should be dancing, which would probably exceed most of our expectations given the loss of Nunge, Garza and Weezy.

I don’t think we even have to beat a ranked opponent. Just no bad losses. Michigan is coming on though, that’s a game I think will be crucial. They have a crappy record but are playing well and have plenty of talent.


We play a desperate Michigan team twice yet; and they show up as a bubble team in ESPN's and Fox's bracket.

We have to go 1-1 vs Michigan, correct? If we go 0-2, this board will look even worse than it does now
 
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Franisdaman

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Shelby Mast is the Bracketologist for USA Today. His projections are based on how he thinks the committee will make their selections, not how he would want to make them, if the season ended TODAY.

On his website he brags that he is one of the most accurate Bracketologists with 15+ year experience and a 98% accuracy rate since 2005.

His bracket was last updated today, Jan 28, 2022, 12:14 AM CT.

He has the same 7 B1G teams in the Tournament as Joe Lunardi of ESPN and Mike DeCourcy of FOX Sports.

The 7 B1G that are in:

Seed/Team:
2 Purdue
3 Wisconsin
3 Michigan State
4 Ohio State
5 Illinois
7 IOWA
10 Indiana

Last 4 in - Wyoming, Florida St., Oregon, Belmont

First 4 out -
North Carolina, Texas A&M, Stanford, SMU

Next 4 out - Arkansas, Minnesota, Notre Dame, VCU


His Full Bracket & Analysis:


 

Franisdaman

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Bracket Matrix, which currently combines the results of 98 brackets, has IOWA as an 8 Seed.

Bracket Matrix has the same 7 B1G teams in the Tournament as Joe Lunardi of ESPN, Mike DeCourcy of FOX Sports and Shelby Mast of USA Today.

The 7 B1G teams that are in:

Seed/Team:
2 Purdue
3 Wisconsin
4 Michigan State
5 Ohio State
5 Illinois
8 IOWA
8 Indiana


Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
 

Franisdaman

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Must not have done his NET research today.

IF we don't have any bad losses, we should be ok, right?

What worries me are these 4 road games, where a loss or losses could put a big dent in our resume:

Michigan (10-8, 4-4)
Penn State (8-9, 3-6)
Maryland (11-10, 3-7)
Nebraska (6-15, 0-10)


Ohio State & Illinois are our only other remaining road games.
 
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Franisdaman

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I think without a signature win, it certainly knocks us down a seed line. If we have 0 Q1 wins, probably knocks us down 2 lines.

It’s a very vanilla resume. But the cut line has some real bland stuff on there. Also important that we don’t have a bad loss and most bubble teams do. That’s a big key.

What worries me is we play these 4 teams on the road yet and losing to any of them is considered a bad loss (I suppose at Michigan is debatable).

Michigan (10-8, 4-4)
Penn State (8-9, 3-6)
Maryland (11-10, 3-7)
Nebraska (6-15, 0-10)
 
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Franisdaman

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Franisdaman

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Shelby Mast is the Bracketologist for USA Today. His projections are based on how he thinks the committee will make their selections, not how he would want to make them, if the season ended TODAY.

On his website he brags that he is one of the most accurate Bracketologists with 15+ years experience and a 98% accuracy rate since 2005.

His bracket was last updated late last night, Jan 31, 2022, 10:58 PM CT.


He has the same 7 B1G teams in the Tournament as Joe Lunardi of ESPN and Mike DeCourcy of FOX Sports.

The 7 B1G that are in:

Seed/Team:
1 Purdue
3 Wisconsin
4 Michigan State
5 Ohio State
5 Illinois
9 IOWA
9 Indiana


Last 4 IN - Belmont, Oregon, Creighton, North Carolina

First 4 OUT - Florida State, SMU, Arkansas, Stanford

Next 4 OUT - Notre Dame, VCU, Minnesota, Texas A&M




His Full Bracket & Analysis:


 

BigOHawk

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Bubble has to be soft, Iowa needs to, IMO, go 6-4 over last 10 games to be comfortably in which is a tall order.
Those wins would need to be Nebraska twice, Maryland, Minnesota, NW and one of the following (Illinois, MSU, Michigan twice and Ohio State).

Well, actually now looking at that scenario not as daunting as I thought, although after last night any win at this point is a challenge.

If we drop ANY of the first games I listed, then we need to beat one of the ranked teams as a swap.
 

Franisdaman

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Bubble has to be soft, Iowa needs to, IMO, go 6-4 over last 10 games to be comfortably in which is a tall order.
Those wins would need to be Nebraska twice, Maryland, Minnesota, NW and one of the following (Illinois, MSU, Michigan twice and Ohio State).

Well, actually now looking at that scenario not as daunting as I thought, although after last night any win at this point is a challenge.

If we drop ANY of the first games I listed, then we need to beat one of the ranked teams as a swap.


Hate to say it, but to go 6-4 over our last 10 games, we might have to win all 5 of our remaining home games.


The 5 road games that are left:

--at #16 OSU
--at Maryland
--at Nebraska
--at Michigan
--at #18 Illinois


The 5 Home games left:

--Minny
--Nebraska
--Michigan
--#13 Michigan State
--Northwestern
 
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Franisdaman

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Mike DeCourcy is a Sporting News college hoops columnist and a Big Ten Network studio analyst.

He does a Bracket Forecast for Fox Sports.

He has the same 7 B1G teams in the Tournament as Joe Lunardi of ESPN and Shelby Mast of USA Today.

Seed/Team:
1 Wisconsin
2 Purdue
4 Michigan State
5 Ohio State
6 Illinois
7 Indiana
9 IOWA


His Full Bracket:


FKh-5FUVIAADpiM



FKiATqjVUAMQfhC



FKiAdz3VIAAocUY
 
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BigOHawk

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Interesting! Those 'last 4 in' have NET ratings of 71, 61, 44 and 58 respectively. Maybe this isn't as dire as we thought last night. Yes, still work to do most definitely however that said too....how much does committee factor in NET scores? I was thinking it was rare to have a team under a NET of 35 getting in tournament.

I guess those losses to top team is propping up our score (Purdue, Illinois, etc.)
 

gojojo

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It's insane to me that anyone would have Iowa in the tournament. I can't see why the computer rankings like us so much with our biggest wins being at home vs Indiana and on the road vs Minnesota and Virginia.

Iowa is not a very good basketball team. Truth hurts.
 

Mohawkeye

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It's insane to me that anyone would have Iowa in the tournament. I can't see why the computer rankings like us so much with our biggest wins being at home vs Indiana and on the road vs Minnesota and Virginia.

Iowa is not a very good basketball team. Truth hurts.
I think you are looking at it wrong. Look at this list and name all the teams you would put in ahead of Iowa? Is Iowa a very good team? No. Are we a good team? Yes. If that truth hurts you, so be it.

 
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mooresville hawk

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I think you are looking at it wrong. Look at this list and name all the teams you would put in ahead of Iowa? Is Iowa a very good team? No. Are we a good team? Yes. If that truth hurts you, so be it.


Fans see what they want to see. Some of this is that we agonize over the highs and the lows of the team we follow. At this point though, there are multiple posters who constantly tear down Fran and some of the players and refuse to see any positives. I will rely on those who watch more games than I do to let me know how the Hawkeyes stack up with other teams, particularly outside the B10 Conference.
 

Franisdaman

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Interesting! Those 'last 4 in' have NET ratings of 71, 61, 44 and 58 respectively. Maybe this isn't as dire as we thought last night. Yes, still work to do most definitely however that said too....how much does committee factor in NET scores? I was thinking it was rare to have a team under a NET of 35 getting in tournament.

I guess those losses to top team is propping up our score (Purdue, Illinois, etc.)




That's why I have been saying that everyone was overreacting last night after the loss (like they always do after a loss). Nevertheless, there were at least 3 NIT threads and a couple "fire Fran" threads started last night.

And look at all of these teams that are on the bubble. I guess their coaches should be fired too!

North Carolina
Florida
Creighton
West Virginia
Oregon
Florida State
Notre Dame
Arkansas
 

Franisdaman

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Fans see what they want to see. Some of this is that we agonize over the highs and the lows of the team we follow. At this point though, there are multiple posters who constantly tear down Fran and some of the players and refuse to see any positives. I will rely on those who watch more games than I do to let me know how the Hawkeyes stack up with other teams, particularly outside the B10 Conference.

Lets face it. Losses are unacceptable on Hawkeye Report. Sadly, the football and basketball forums immediately go into meltdown mode following a loss. Lots of second guessing; so and so sucks; so and so should be playing; the coach is an idiot and should be fired; etc.

I don't get our fans sometimes. Obliviously, going into every contest there is always a possibility we might lose that game. Winning on the road, in the B1G, is not easy. Our opponent has good coaches and the same number of scholarship players. They want to win just as badly as we do.
 

BigOHawk

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Agreed and I'm guilty being in that camp too sometimes. I guess for me in both sports is the WAY in which we lose...head scratching rotations in bball, not teaching or improving on defense, running an antiquated offense scheme in football, playing a QB who is in over his head etc, etc.
 
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Franisdaman

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Agreed and I'm guilty being in that camp too sometimes. I guess for me in both sports is the WAY in which we lose...head scratching rotations in bball, not teaching or improving on defense, running an antiquated offense scheme in football, playing a QB who is in over his head etc, etc.

it would be interesting to hear the reasons why Joe and Payton don't play more; maybe I should call in during HawkTalk with Fran McCaffery and ask him ;)
 
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nbanflfactory

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Lets face it. Losses are unacceptable on Hawkeye Report. Sadly, the football and basketball forums immediately go into meltdown mode following a loss. Lots of second guessing; so and so sucks; so and so should be playing; the coach is an idiot and should be fired; etc.

I don't get our fans sometimes. Obliviously, going into every contest there is always a possibility we might lose that game. Winning on the road, in the B1G, is not easy. Our opponent has good coaches and the same number of scholarship players. They want to win just as badly as we do.
1 loss? You realize we've lost 3 of the last 4 right?
 
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