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ESPN Bracketology, Updated MARCH 13. IOWA is a 5 Seed in CHICAGO Regional. Bracket Matrix on MARCH 13 has IOWA a 5 Seed. #14 NET Ranking on March 13

Wouldn't that just be icing on the cake. Waiting for a Sweet 16 since what, 1998? And then of ALL years it happens this year, totally unexpected especially when we've had a better overall team several other times, including last year. That said, with an 8/9 game most likely first round and #1 seed next will be a tall order.

Those top seeds are weak, IMO. Just need Jbo to get hot for two games! God, I'm an optimist.
 
Shelby Mast is the Bracketologist for USA Today. His projections are based on how he thinks the committee will make their selections, not how he would want to make them, if the season ended TODAY.

On his website he brags that he is one of the most accurate Bracketologists with 15+ years experience and a 98% accuracy rate since 2005.

His bracket was last updated this morning, Feb 9, 2022, 7:54 AM CT.

The same 7 B1G teams continue to show up. Note that he has Iowa at the 10 seed that @TheTruthTheWholeTruth is hoping for. ;)

The 7 B1G teams that he has in:

Seed/Team:
1 Purdue
2 Wisconsin
4 Michigan State
4 Illinois
5 Ohio State
10 IOWA
10 Indiana


Last 4 IN - West Virginia, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Creighton

First 4 OUT - San Diego State, Oregon, Virginia, Florida

Next 4 OUT - SMU, Mississippi State, Santa Clara, Washington State




His Full Bracket & Analysis:


 
My prediction we win our home games and steal 2 road wins going into big ten tournament

I would guess 3-1 at home and 2-3 on the road. This team is good enough to go on a run but hasn’t yet shown the consistency to do so.


Everyone save this comment when we reach the Sweet 16.


Wouldn't that just be icing on the cake. Waiting for a Sweet 16 since what, 1998? And then of ALL years it happens this year, totally unexpected especially when we've had a better overall team several other times, including last year. That said, with an 8/9 game most likely first round and #1 seed next will be a tall order.


At what point do we need to start worrying about Rutgers, who have the head to head vs Iowa? They have these quality wins:

Purdue
Michigan State
Ohio State
Iowa

And remember, had we played at OSU, we might be at 7 conference losses and 8 losses overall.

UPDATED Current Records:
14-9, 8-5.....Rutgers @MrsScrew !!!
15-7, 5-6......Iowa
 
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At what point do we need to start worrying about Rutgers, who have the head to head vs Iowa? They have these quality wins:

Purdue
Michigan State
Ohio State
Iowa

And remember, had we played at OSU, we might be at 7 conference losses and 8 losses overall.

Current Records:
13-9, 7-5.....Rutgers @MrsScrew !!!
15-7, 5-6......Iowa

Um, that's 8-5 after tonight's win over O-Hi-NO!
 
Um, that's 8-5 after tonight's win over O-Hi-NO!


UPDATED Current Records:
14-9, 8-5.....Rutgers
15-7, 5-6......Iowa


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Rutgers NET almost 100 but probably before last night's win. Yeah, any Q3 or Q4 losses need to be overridden by road ranked wins most likely and probably several.
 
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Rutgers NET almost 100 but probably before last night's win. Yeah, any Q3 or Q4 losses need to be overridden by road ranked wins most likely and probably several.
Yesterday's win moved our NET from 99 to 91. We're making progress there and if we manage to get four more wins, I think it will be high enough. We would probably have seven Q1 wins, and the committee could say Baker missed the UMass game and the last eight minutes of Lafayette to excuse some of that stink. If we stall out at three wins, that is a harder sell. If we only get two or less, there's nothing to discuss.
 
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Iowa is going to be favored in almost all of their remaining games except for at Michigan, at Illinois and at OSU if they play that game. That would be 6-3. Even if they drop one they aren't supposed to that is 5-4 and they finish .500. They will be in. Seeding might not be great although their metrics are good. So just stay out of the 8-9 game. Problem is that I don't trust the defense still so it is hard to count on games being a win even. See at PSU.
 
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Rutgers NET almost 100 but probably before last night's win. Yeah, any Q3 or Q4 losses need to be overridden by road ranked wins most likely and probably several.


Yesterday's win moved our NET from 99 to 91. We're making progress there and if we manage to get four more wins, I think it will be high enough. We would probably have seven Q1 wins, and the committee could say Baker missed the UMass game and the last eight minutes of Lafayette to excuse some of that stink. If we stall out at three wins, that is a harder sell. If we only get two or less, there's nothing to discuss.



Current NET Rankings, Through Feb 9, 2022 Games:


Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4
44PurdueBig Ten21-34-24-013-17-24-13-07-0
1213IllinoisBig Ten17-65-32-110-25-44-25-03-0
1817Ohio St.Big Ten14-63-51-110-03-53-15-03-0
1919WisconsinBig Ten19-46-23-010-28-43-04-04-0
2021IowaBig Ten15-72-51-012-21-53-24-07-0
2726Michigan St.Big Ten17-65-23-29-24-45-24-04-0
3534IndianaBig Ten16-72-51-013-22-42-34-08-0
4747MichiganBig Ten12-93-62-17-21-53-34-14-0
6665NorthwesternBig Ten11-103-41-17-51-82-02-26-0
8989Penn St.Big Ten9-111-61-17-42-81-22-14-0
9199RutgersBig Ten14-92-70-012-24-32-32-26-1
100101MarylandBig Ten11-122-42-17-73-63-31-34-0
10291MinnesotaBig Ten11-103-52-06-52-90-04-15-0
182198NebraskaBig Ten7-170-60-17-100-80-61-26-1
 
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Our defense seems to have stepped up a bit, but our offense seems to be taking a step back. Unless we can achieve some equilibrium, I don't see us making the NCAA Tournament at all. Might be a NIT year.
 
Our defense seems to have stepped up a bit, but our offense seems to be taking a step back. Unless we can achieve some equilibrium, I don't see us making the NCAA Tournament at all. Might be a NIT year.



Would you believe Iowa ranks better on D than Purdue (per KenPom)?

IOWA

#10: Adjusted offense ranking

#93: Adjusted defense ranking


PURDUE

#1: Adjusted offense ranking

#105: Adjusted defense ranking
 
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At what point do we need to start worrying about Rutgers, who have the head to head vs Iowa? They have these quality wins:

Purdue
Michigan State
Ohio State
Iowa

And remember, had we played at OSU, we might be at 7 conference losses and 8 losses overall.

UPDATED Current Records:
14-9, 8-5.....Rutgers @MrsScrew !!!
15-7, 5-6......Iowa
Doesn’t Rutgers winning only help us make the NCAAs at this point? Makes our loss look more tenable.
 
Our defense seems to have stepped up a bit, but our offense seems to be taking a step back. Unless we can achieve some equilibrium, I don't see us making the NCAA Tournament at all. Might be a NIT year.
I disagree but understand your logic. Iowa is solidly in the field as of now and some of the brackets even project out for the remainder of our games. Schedule is very favorable and even 5-4 punches a Dance ticket.

Bubble is very weak IMO and as I've been saying, Last 4 In/First 4 Out have very average resumes at best so it would probably take 2-3 BAD losses to knock out Iowa and those teams to catch fire too.
 
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Would you believe Iowa ranks better on D than Purdue (per KenPom)?

IOWA

#10: Adjusted offense ranking

#93: Adjusted defense ranking


PURDUE

#1: Adjusted offense ranking

#105: Adjusted defense ranking

Can't believe we're still #10 on offense. We're bad a three pointers, terrible with offensive rebounds, have a difficult time getting in the lane. Oftentimes, our offense just looks pretty clunky.
 
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As of FEBRUARY 11, 6:00 am CT:


Michigan is part of the NEXT 4 OUT.

Joe Lunardi continues to have these 7 B1G teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Seed/Team:
1 Purdue
3 Illinois
3 Wisconsin
5 Michigan State
6 Ohio State
7 IOWA
9 Indiana



Bracket Matrix, which currently combines the results of 112 brackets, has IOWA as a 8 Seed.

Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/


The Full ESPN Bracket:


 
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As of FEBRUARY 11, 6:00 am CT:


Michigan is part of the NEXT 4 OUT.

Joe Lunardi continues to have these 7 B1G teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Seed/Team:
1 Purdue
3 Illinois
3 Wisconsin
5 Michigan State
6 Ohio State
7 IOWA
9 Indiana



Bracket Matrix, which currently combines the results of 112 brackets, has IOWA as a 8 Seed.

Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/


The Full ESPN Bracket:


Figuring out Michigan is hard. Just demolished Purdue. Smashed them. Also won big at Indiana. But then they have a double digit loss to Minnesota, at Ann Arbor. Also double digit loss to UCF and got boat-raced by North Carolina.

Need to hope they are in an inconsistent spell when they come to CHA. Iowa trying to defend Dickinson gives me chills. He hit 4 3's against Purdue, is over 40% on the year from 3.
 
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Figuring out Michigan is hard. Just demolished Purdue. Smashed them. Also won big at Indiana. But then they have a double digit loss to Minnesota, at Ann Arbor. Also double digit loss to UCF and got boat-raced by North Carolina.

Need to hope they are in an inconsistent spell when they come to CHA. Iowa trying to defend Dickinson gives me chills. He hit 4 3's against Purdue, is over 40% on the year from 3.


I noted above that on Nov 9 Michigan was regarded as a #1 seed.

Can you or anyone else give a refresher on what went wrong and what got better between then and now?

Thanks in advance. ;)
 
Current NET Rankings, Through Feb 10, 2022 Games:


Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4

94PurdueBig Ten21-44-34-013-18-33-13-07-0
1212IllinoisBig Ten17-65-32-110-26-43-25-03-0
1818Ohio St.Big Ten14-63-51-110-03-53-15-03-0
1920IowaBig Ten16-73-51-012-21-54-24-07-0
2019WisconsinBig Ten19-46-23-010-28-43-04-04-0
2627Michigan St.Big Ten17-65-23-29-25-44-24-04-0
3047MichiganBig Ten13-93-62-18-22-53-34-14-0
3735IndianaBig Ten16-72-51-013-22-52-24-08-0
6666NorthwesternBig Ten11-103-41-17-51-82-03-25-0
8889Penn St.Big Ten9-111-61-17-42-91-12-14-0
9291RutgersBig Ten14-92-70-012-25-31-32-26-1
100102MinnesotaBig Ten11-103-52-06-52-90-04-15-0
104100MarylandBig Ten11-132-42-17-83-73-31-34-0
177182NebraskaBig Ten7-170-60-17-100-90-51-26-1
 
Figuring out Michigan is hard. Just demolished Purdue. Smashed them. Also won big at Indiana. But then they have a double digit loss to Minnesota, at Ann Arbor. Also double digit loss to UCF and got boat-raced by North Carolina.

Need to hope they are in an inconsistent spell when they come to CHA. Iowa trying to defend Dickinson gives me chills. He hit 4 3's against Purdue, is over 40% on the year from 3.


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Updates from the top 2 ranked bracketologists (that have posted a bracket so far) on bracketmatrix.

Delphi - 9 Seed

https://delphibracketology.com/bracketology

HeatCheck CBB - 9 Seed

https://heatcheckcbb.com/heat-check-cbb-march-madness-bracketology/

The bracket from HeatCheck is particularly notable because he's been the most negative with Iowa's resume amongst the guys ranked high on bracketmatrix that I've looked at. A couple of days ago, he had Iowa as an 11 seed. If he has us as a 9 seed, then that is currently Iowa's floor. A good sign.
 
Current NET Rankings, Through Feb 10, 2022 Games:


Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4

94PurdueBig Ten21-44-34-013-18-33-13-07-0
1212IllinoisBig Ten17-65-32-110-26-43-25-03-0
1818Ohio St.Big Ten14-63-51-110-03-53-15-03-0
1920IowaBig Ten16-73-51-012-21-54-24-07-0
2019WisconsinBig Ten19-46-23-010-28-43-04-04-0
2627Michigan St.Big Ten17-65-23-29-25-44-24-04-0
3047MichiganBig Ten13-93-62-18-22-53-34-14-0
3735IndianaBig Ten16-72-51-013-22-52-24-08-0
6666NorthwesternBig Ten11-103-41-17-51-82-03-25-0
8889Penn St.Big Ten9-111-61-17-42-91-12-14-0
9291RutgersBig Ten14-92-70-012-25-31-32-26-1
100102MinnesotaBig Ten11-103-52-06-52-90-04-15-0
104100MarylandBig Ten11-132-42-17-83-73-31-34-0
177182NebraskaBig Ten7-170-60-17-100-90-51-26-1
Where are you pulling this NET ranking from? The NET rankings on NCAA.com has Iowa at 1-5 in Quad 1 games, so which is correct? The overall ranking is the same.
 
Figuring out Michigan is hard. Just demolished Purdue. Smashed them. Also won big at Indiana. But then they have a double digit loss to Minnesota, at Ann Arbor. Also double digit loss to UCF and got boat-raced by North Carolina.

Need to hope they are in an inconsistent spell when they come to CHA. Iowa trying to defend Dickinson gives me chills. He hit 4 3's against Purdue, is over 40% on the year from 3.
Yep, poses some of the same matchup problems as Garza did. Hits 3's, runs the floor, posts up, blocks shots, etc. Maybe you put Keegan on him and wear him down with transition and fast breaks.
 
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Where are you pulling this NET ranking from? The NET rankings on NCAA.com has Iowa at 1-5 in Quad 1 games, so which is correct? The overall ranking is the same.
Columns are probably off and/or margins. Only 1 Quad win, yes, although Indiana and Virginia are trending toward Quad 1, which would be nice. We have a few more Q1 opportunities ahead.
 
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Mike DeCourcy is a Sporting News college hoops columnist and a Big Ten Network studio analyst.

He does a Bracket Forecast for Fox Sports.

He has the same 7 B1G teams in the Tournament as Joe Lunardi of ESPN.

NOTE that Michigan is part of his FIRST 4 OUT.

The 7 B1G teams he has in the NCAA Tournament:


Seed/Team:
2 Purdue
2 Wisconsin
4 Illinois
5 Michigan State
6 Ohio State
9 IOWA
10 Indiana


His Full Bracket:


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FLVoosxVgAI4VA9



FLVoRHnVkAU823o
 
Shelby Mast is the Bracketologist for USA Today. His projections are based on how he thinks the committee will make their selections, not how he would want to make them, if the season ended TODAY.

On his website he brags that he is one of the most accurate Bracketologists with 15+ years experience and a 98% accuracy rate since 2005.

His bracket was last updated this morning, Feb 11, 2022, 12:04 AM CT.

The same 7 B1G teams continue to show up. Michigan, as you can see below, is lurking on the bubble (part of the NEXT 4 OUT).

The 7 B1G teams that he has in:

Seed/Team:
2 Purdue...................a 2 per DeCourcy/FOX, a 1 per Lunardi/ESPN
2 Wisconsin.............a 2 per DeCourcy/FOX, a 3 per Lunardi/ESPN
4 Illinois....................a 4 per DeCourcy/FOX, a 3 per Lunardi/ESPN
4 Michigan State....a 5 per DeCourcy/FOX, a 5 per Lunardi/ESPN
5 Ohio State............a 6 per DeCourcy/FOX, a 6 per Lunardi/ESPN
9 IOWA..................a 9 per DeCourcy/FOX, a 7 per Lunardi/ESPN
10 Indiana................a 10 per DeCourcy/FOX, a 9 per Lunardi/ESPN



Last 4 IN - Belmont, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Creighton

First 4 OUT - SMU, San Diego State, Oregon, Virginia

Next 4 OUT - Florida, Michigan, Santa Clara, St Louis




His Full Bracket & Analysis:


 
Where are you pulling this NET ranking from? The NET rankings on NCAA.com has Iowa at 1-5 in Quad 1 games, so which is correct? The overall ranking is the same.

Columns are probably off and/or margins. Only 1 Quad win, yes, although Indiana and Virginia are trending toward Quad 1, which would be nice. We have a few more Q1 opportunities ahead.


The NET information I posted above is from ncaa.com & has Iowa:

1-5: Q1 (which is correct)
4-2: Q2
4-0: Q3
7-0: Q4
...................................
16-7 Overall Record

#19 NET Ranking
 
Updates from the top 2 ranked bracketologists (that have posted a bracket so far) on bracketmatrix.

Delphi - 9 Seed

https://delphibracketology.com/bracketology

HeatCheck CBB - 9 Seed

https://heatcheckcbb.com/heat-check-cbb-march-madness-bracketology/

The bracket from HeatCheck is particularly notable because he's been the most negative with Iowa's resume amongst the guys ranked high on bracketmatrix that I've looked at. A couple of days ago, he had Iowa as an 11 seed. If he has us as a 9 seed, then that is currently Iowa's floor. A good sign.


the dreaded 8/9 line.....hopefully we can move up to a 7 or better

30 days until Selection Sunday!
 
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