Expectations (temper them)
- Thread starter BrewHawk
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Consider this in evaluating the success for this season: Schedule! Initially, please note that the Hawkeyes would have been regular season co-champions but for the advantageous schedules of Indiana and OSU in 2022 and 2023 respectively. Check it out!!
This year, Iowa plays 7 big ten teams ranked by the AP as Top 25- 5 ( USC, UCLA, Maryland, Nebraska, Indiana . 5 of those games are at home, only two are away( OSU, Nebraska). Let's say Iowa wins 8 of the 11 other games... most of which will be away games. Iowa could easily lose at both Nebraska and OSU, which are each tough road games. Of the home games, USC and UCLA will be elite teams. We could easily lose both. Let's say Iowa wins two out of 3 with Maryland, Nebraska and Indiana. All of the above, would result is a 10-8 conference record. Still one has to play the games... so, the potential is 18-0, for the time being. Go Hawkeyes!
This year, Iowa plays 7 big ten teams ranked by the AP as Top 25- 5 ( USC, UCLA, Maryland, Nebraska, Indiana . 5 of those games are at home, only two are away( OSU, Nebraska). Let's say Iowa wins 8 of the 11 other games... most of which will be away games. Iowa could easily lose at both Nebraska and OSU, which are each tough road games. Of the home games, USC and UCLA will be elite teams. We could easily lose both. Let's say Iowa wins two out of 3 with Maryland, Nebraska and Indiana. All of the above, would result is a 10-8 conference record. Still one has to play the games... so, the potential is 18-0, for the time being. Go Hawkeyes!
This. Most people's expectations are sweet 16 with between 8 and 12 losses. I see no reason to temper that expectation.
You're just wrong. This team will be the at the same level that Iowa was at prior to Clark.
Didn’t they go to the elite eight in 2019? The last NCAA tournament before Clark got to Iowa City? With the national player of the year?
It has nothing to do with years. They have to be seniors and turn 22 in the year of the draft. So Juju will have to wait until the year she turns 22 to be eligible for THAT Aprils draft.
I guess he expects Elite 8, because that's what Iowa was at before Clark.
Maybe yes, maybe no.
Why?
We can ~ see a correlation between the number of Top 100 ESPN players and how you did in NCAA Tournament with Lisa as HC. $64,000 is how will Jan's team do w/all this extra talent vs prior years?
'18-'19 - 6 ESPN Top 100 (Elite 8 - w/Gustafson)
‘19-‘20 - 4 ESPN Top 100 (2nd Round 32 - Pre-Caitlin)
‘20-‘21 - 2 ESPN Top 100 (2nd Round 32 - w/Clark)
‘21-‘22 - 5 ESPN Top 100 (Sweet 16 - w/Clark)
‘22-‘23 - 8 ESPN Top 100 (Natty game - w/Clark)
‘23-'24 - 8 ESPN Top 100 (Natty game - w/Clark)
‘24-'25 - 10 ESPN Top 100 (?)
Now what I didn't realize when I first started this is how many rating systems there are now. I plan on making a grid with all the other rating systems included instead of just ESPN to make more of a apples to apples comparison to the current 24-'25 team (believe all 14 players can be considered Top 100 ranked).
Meaning I can make a case for 13 of the 14 current roster players in the '24-'25 season being Top 100 talent with these extra rating systems. The 3 left out of ESPN were Sydney at #48, Callie at #100 while KJE made #99 in other rankings.
The one person left out of all these players is Lucy Olsen without a ranking. Which we all know now Lucy was undervalued.
When I was researching Lucy's ranking, I found out she was Miss Basketball in PA in 2021.
So we can make a minimum case that Lucy Olsen could be rated like Callie Levin which she was IA Miss BB.
Meaning I can make a case for all 14 roster players in the '24-'25 season being Top 100 talent. If Eva Jones (#84) was still on the team, all 15 players could be considered Top 100 talent. A whole team of TOP 100 talent. That's truly mind blowing for a Hawkeyes team.
What would happen to the Hawkeyes if Jan is a better coach than Lisa and at the same time has this extra talent that the women's team has NEVER had before? Sure we don't have the college GOAT, but maybe Heiden and Mallegni are stars in the making sooner rather than later. Maybe these girls won't be so fearful of Clark's frustration and play better as well (I'm talking about Feuerbach, McCabe, O'Grady and AJE here).
You're welcome to say it's unrealistic and you may well be right in the end. Anyone can have a off night to bow out early and the very same can happen to our opponent. I'm just saying there's reason and indicators on why many of us still have high expectations yet. Not only is it how many are ranked but how high they're ranked now as well.
Jan's head coaching is one wildcard while the youth is another wildcard. Since all these players (including the '25 commits) stuck around when Lisa retired, it says something about the belief system of these young women. It's that belief they exhibit towards Jan which is the same belief I'm sticking with for my high expectations until she proves otherwise.
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This has always been the interesting part, the incoming talent floor seems higher, but the two final four teams were dominated by a top 5 talent surrounded by experienced players with higher rated becnch that could not seem to overcome the experience of 5th year covid players. On paper this team has more depth, but its not gme time experience. In theory they should adapt a little faster than Cinzano/Marshall/Martin. But how fast they can adapt, and do they have enough experience to get there this year. Syd, Hannah, Lucy, and Kylie have all been starters, If Addie got better but still cant stay ahead of Ava, that implies that the team has a solid starting 5 with talent off the bench. The team has a lot of questions though. So temper expectations a bit, but also understand that the range of possibel outcomes is much larger than in the past.
That's the thing: replacing 4 starters is difficult! Maybe too difficult. Another unknown, is just how much the older players on the team may have improved.
They'll be lucky to even make the tournament
They havent. They were role players with CC and dont seem to have a game of their own.
Tell me how it feels to have bumped this thread twice after losses and once in the middle of our five game losing streak. Does it feel amazing? I bet it feels amazing.
I think your interpretation of my motives is misplaced.
A fanbase with overly high expectations can't be satisfied. I am very satisfied at this point in the season with the adjustments Jan has made. I was certainly skeptical for a bit there, but she changed her approach and adopted many of the following that I suggested earlier in the year (save getting Ava more PT)...
1. For the love of God, please go away from the post-focused offense with the stupid lob passes. If you have a Luka Garza equivalent it's understandable.
2. Need more perimeter motion, pick and roll/pop and pace.
3. More Harden, Guyton and Stremlow!
4. Make free throws a practice priority when players are tired.
5. Did I mention, push the ball on offense!
Now get back to me when the team lives up to your (and many others) Sweet Sixteen expectations. Hopefully the team won't be a failure in your eyes if they don't. It really all comes down to matchups in the tourney.
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I’ve listened to Jan’s interview… I’m very interested in hearing what you think she changed. Maybe we could get someone to link it.
She pretty specifically said they quit doing a couple things that weren’t effective. I.e. lob entry passes & shortened the rotation but generally speaking they aren’t doing much different. Just better 🤷♂️
Jan was doing a good job at the start of the season in the middle of the season and still is doing a good job. I also may be missing what your motivation is, but I’ve watched pretty much every game and there ain’t very much different. They’ve just learned to play together.
PS… came back to edit because I do see you had a list there, and I don’t think you and I necessarily typically have that much of a problem. I really don’t remember nor really care as far as that goes but I honestly don’t get fans that think they have these brilliant ideas and then when we start playing better, they say see…
This has never been a different offense than it was under Lisa Bluder… It just had different players, less experience, & differently skilled players running it.
Not to mention, the more Heiden, Guyton and Stremiw was a complete non sequitur.
I think probably what my friend @wondergrape is referencing is some people’s propensity to think they have all these brilliant basketball ideas and the coach finally started “doing them”….
In reality, they were doing what they needed to do to win. They just weren’t good at it yet…🤷♂️
The best part is the freshman stuff… It seems everyone that was complaining has conveniently forgot. They basically wanted the freshman playing every damn minute.
Like I said, I have no clue if you were one of those people and I do feel like you have mostly agreed with the things I’ve said per se but if you are one of those that’s spent a great deal of time talking about how Jan was doing everything wrong & playing the wrong people….then that’s kind of the point.
If we knew what we were talking about, we would’ve seen that’s what she was doing. They were working through their execution problems.
Kind of a weird flex…. I’m gonna tell you they’ve lived up to my expectations already, they’re greedy. They’ve clearly practice hard, they’ve played hard. They never give up themselves like many of our fans did… No, I think they’ve done a hell of a job.
Jan made several significant changes as the season progressed. One, she moved Stuelke to 5 and ended the AOG/Hannah front line offense.
And, two, Jan junked the passive/drop coverage man-to-man defense and went to an aggressive ball pressure defense. In fact, when Iowa abandoned their "prevent defense", a star was born - that's Kyle. Kyle was born to play in this type of dawg defense. I never would have quessed.
These two coaching moves were significant and brilliant changes.
That’s because of moving Hannah into the lineup. Defensively they most assuredly turned the pressure up, agreed. But that’s not what he and/or people are trying to indicate. I don’t think people probably realize this, but Hannah has to play the 4 (meaning she wants to) to get to the next level, of course you realize that, and they needed Hannah to work at the 4 to be the absolute best version of themselves and she gave it a realistic try not five games, Not 10 games but close to that and then she had to move forward …
We truly have fans that think we ran a different offense this year and we weren’t running a different offense. Defensively they went ALL IN and it most assuredly has made a difference.
You’ll note those weren’t the “supposed” changes they were clamoring for !
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She got the guards dribbling forward. Nothing was ever going to happen passing around the perimeter. If you watch the collapse in the Oregon game there isn't much of an offense being run. Again, whatever you want to call the objectives of the offense, they had to be coached into running it. A lot of that required opening the lane with Hannah low, and shortening the bench to give the players something steady to balance themselves and insert their own game.
Great thoughts…. I think it’s worth saying here, good coach or bad coach. Jan did have to get them to buy in and she did have to get them to see what they were doing wrong. So she certainly isn’t blameless, but I bristle at the implication that her philosophy was the problem with the offense. The players just weren’t doing what they were supposed to be doing.
Yes. She needs to turn the hustle down on offense and be a little more deliberate. But, she'd had a handful of Caitlin worthy assists this year (see one below). Whether or not she ever starts, she is going to be a huge asset moving forward.
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