Expectations (temper them)
- Thread starter BrewHawk
- Start date
Consider this in evaluating the success for this season: Schedule! Initially, please note that the Hawkeyes would have been regular season co-champions but for the advantageous schedules of Indiana and OSU in 2022 and 2023 respectively. Check it out!!
This year, Iowa plays 7 big ten teams ranked by the AP as Top 25- 5 ( USC, UCLA, Maryland, Nebraska, Indiana . 5 of those games are at home, only two are away( OSU, Nebraska). Let's say Iowa wins 8 of the 11 other games... most of which will be away games. Iowa could easily lose at both Nebraska and OSU, which are each tough road games. Of the home games, USC and UCLA will be elite teams. We could easily lose both. Let's say Iowa wins two out of 3 with Maryland, Nebraska and Indiana. All of the above, would result is a 10-8 conference record. Still one has to play the games... so, the potential is 18-0, for the time being. Go Hawkeyes!
This year, Iowa plays 7 big ten teams ranked by the AP as Top 25- 5 ( USC, UCLA, Maryland, Nebraska, Indiana . 5 of those games are at home, only two are away( OSU, Nebraska). Let's say Iowa wins 8 of the 11 other games... most of which will be away games. Iowa could easily lose at both Nebraska and OSU, which are each tough road games. Of the home games, USC and UCLA will be elite teams. We could easily lose both. Let's say Iowa wins two out of 3 with Maryland, Nebraska and Indiana. All of the above, would result is a 10-8 conference record. Still one has to play the games... so, the potential is 18-0, for the time being. Go Hawkeyes!
This. Most people's expectations are sweet 16 with between 8 and 12 losses. I see no reason to temper that expectation.
You're just wrong. This team will be the at the same level that Iowa was at prior to Clark.
Didn’t they go to the elite eight in 2019? The last NCAA tournament before Clark got to Iowa City? With the national player of the year?
It has nothing to do with years. They have to be seniors and turn 22 in the year of the draft. So Juju will have to wait until the year she turns 22 to be eligible for THAT Aprils draft.
I guess he expects Elite 8, because that's what Iowa was at before Clark.
Maybe yes, maybe no.
Why?
We can ~ see a correlation between the number of Top 100 ESPN players and how you did in NCAA Tournament with Lisa as HC. $64,000 is how will Jan's team do w/all this extra talent vs prior years?
'18-'19 - 6 ESPN Top 100 (Elite 8 - w/Gustafson)
‘19-‘20 - 4 ESPN Top 100 (2nd Round 32 - Pre-Caitlin)
‘20-‘21 - 2 ESPN Top 100 (2nd Round 32 - w/Clark)
‘21-‘22 - 5 ESPN Top 100 (Sweet 16 - w/Clark)
‘22-‘23 - 8 ESPN Top 100 (Natty game - w/Clark)
‘23-'24 - 8 ESPN Top 100 (Natty game - w/Clark)
‘24-'25 - 10 ESPN Top 100 (?)
Now what I didn't realize when I first started this is how many rating systems there are now. I plan on making a grid with all the other rating systems included instead of just ESPN to make more of a apples to apples comparison to the current 24-'25 team (believe all 14 players can be considered Top 100 ranked).
Meaning I can make a case for 13 of the 14 current roster players in the '24-'25 season being Top 100 talent with these extra rating systems. The 3 left out of ESPN were Sydney at #48, Callie at #100 while KJE made #99 in other rankings.
The one person left out of all these players is Lucy Olsen without a ranking. Which we all know now Lucy was undervalued.
When I was researching Lucy's ranking, I found out she was Miss Basketball in PA in 2021.
So we can make a minimum case that Lucy Olsen could be rated like Callie Levin which she was IA Miss BB.
Meaning I can make a case for all 14 roster players in the '24-'25 season being Top 100 talent. If Eva Jones (#84) was still on the team, all 15 players could be considered Top 100 talent. A whole team of TOP 100 talent. That's truly mind blowing for a Hawkeyes team.
What would happen to the Hawkeyes if Jan is a better coach than Lisa and at the same time has this extra talent that the women's team has NEVER had before? Sure we don't have the college GOAT, but maybe Heiden and Mallegni are stars in the making sooner rather than later. Maybe these girls won't be so fearful of Clark's frustration and play better as well (I'm talking about Feuerbach, McCabe, O'Grady and AJE here).
You're welcome to say it's unrealistic and you may well be right in the end. Anyone can have a off night to bow out early and the very same can happen to our opponent. I'm just saying there's reason and indicators on why many of us still have high expectations yet. Not only is it how many are ranked but how high they're ranked now as well.
Jan's head coaching is one wildcard while the youth is another wildcard. Since all these players (including the '25 commits) stuck around when Lisa retired, it says something about the belief system of these young women. It's that belief they exhibit towards Jan which is the same belief I'm sticking with for my high expectations until she proves otherwise.
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This has always been the interesting part, the incoming talent floor seems higher, but the two final four teams were dominated by a top 5 talent surrounded by experienced players with higher rated becnch that could not seem to overcome the experience of 5th year covid players. On paper this team has more depth, but its not gme time experience. In theory they should adapt a little faster than Cinzano/Marshall/Martin. But how fast they can adapt, and do they have enough experience to get there this year. Syd, Hannah, Lucy, and Kylie have all been starters, If Addie got better but still cant stay ahead of Ava, that implies that the team has a solid starting 5 with talent off the bench. The team has a lot of questions though. So temper expectations a bit, but also understand that the range of possibel outcomes is much larger than in the past.
That's the thing: replacing 4 starters is difficult! Maybe too difficult. Another unknown, is just how much the older players on the team may have improved.
