Explain Vegas Lines

[NileKinnicksGhost]

This is something I could probably Google, but I trust all of you to explain this to me.

Iowa vs. Northwestern started out as -3 for Iowa. Assuming home field teams get 3 points by default that would mean that Vegas saw Iowa as a 6 point favorite.

The line has now moved to a pick'em.

Does that mean that the early money came in on Northwestern, so they moved the line to get more action on Iowa?

 

[charlie sheeen]

They move the line so the betting is 50/50 to maximize profit.

 

[td77]

Could also be intentional to have more money bet on NW if they feel strongly in favor of Iowa.

 

[Hawkeyestate81]

Could also be intentional to have more money bet on NW if they feel strongly in favor of Iowa.

Yeah, I sure as heck don't feel strongly on Iowa right now, walking MASH unit and it's our purple nemesis NW.

 

[NileKinnicksGhost]

So we really can't read anything into this early line movement, correct?

It could be:

a) It moved because they want 50/50 and early money was on NW
b) They are confident in Iowa and want more money on NW

 

[luvmyhawks]

So we really can't read anything into this early line movement, correct?

It could be:

a) It moved because they want 50/50 and early money was on NW
b) They are confident in Iowa and want more money on NW

If they were confident in Iowa, why move the line?

 

[Lone Clone]

So we really can't read anything into this early line movement, correct?

It could be:

a) It moved because they want 50/50 and early money was on NW
b) They are confident in Iowa and want more money on NW

The odds are changed in reaction to the betting.

 

[luvmyhawks]

Yeah, I sure as heck don't feel strongly on Iowa right now, walking MASH unit and it's our purple nemesis NW.

This.

 

[Recruiting Violation]

Could also be intentional to have more money bet on NW if they feel strongly in favor of Iowa.

If anyone felt more strongly about Iowa, the line would move the other way, farther negative toward Iowa. The movement from -3 to 0 means it's gone from Iowa favored to no line (so toward Northwestern). As others have already indicated, this means confidence (betting money) is on Northwestern, at least at any point that Iowa is favored. If the line holds at zero, then that means approximately equal action is coming in for each team at this line.

 

[GnarlyBoy]

i can't figure out Vegas either. Each casino can vary. it's a fact the line is not always driven toward 50/50. those boys have a lot more inside information than joe public bettor, and will hedge if they think reality is far from public sentiment. but how in the heck does one casino open the the isu/tcu line at tcu -17? are you kidding me! there has to be some insider crooked funny business going on with somebody waiting at the window to bet the farm on tcu as soon as the window opens.

vegas insider consensus, and all but one casino listed therein, had nebby at -1.5 for days up until 8pm friday evening. at that time all various casino lines and consensus flipped to Wisc -1.5. the line didn't even stop at intervals along the way - it just friggin flipped.?! there was no new big injury news. whatever individual or consortium may have dropped huge money on Wisc at 8pm friday, shouldn't have impacted ALL the various casinos.

in general, lines published in the paper are dated because of print deadlines, especially in basketball with frequent short turnarounds not giving the line the necessary time to settle.

 

[Recruiting Violation]

i can't figure out Vegas either. Each casino can vary. it's a fact the line is not always driven toward 50/50. those boys have a lot more inside information than joe public bettor, and will hedge if they think reality is far from public sentiment. but how in the heck does one casino open the the isu/tcu line at tcu -17? are you kidding me! there has to be some insider crooked funny business going on with somebody waiting at the window to bet the farm on tcu as soon as the window opens.

vegas insider consensus, and all but one casino listed therein, had nebby at -1.5 for days up until 8pm friday evening. at that time all various casino lines and consensus flipped to Wisc -1.5. the line didn't even stop at intervals along the way - it just friggin flipped.?! there was no new big injury news. whatever individual or consortium may have dropped huge money on Wisc at 8pm friday, shouldn't have impacted ALL the various casinos.

in general, lines published in the paper are dated because of print deadlines, especially in basketball with frequent short turnarounds not giving the line the necessary time to settle.

The big money coming in Friday is not going to be placed all at one book. It will be spread around as much as possible. This is at least part of the reason the lines end up pretty much equal everywhere.

 

[ichawk24]

You can see the line movement history here:
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college...ern-university.cfm/date/10-17-15/time/1200#BT

Oddsmakers don't "like" any teams better than others. They want 50/50 action. 50/50 action guarantees profit and staying solvent. "Maximizing profit" by favoring a team they "like" would actually be taking on risk that they lose a bunch of money when the outcome goes against them. Why take on risk when you are guaranteed long term profitability?

Iowa went from -3 to pickem and now it sits at -1. If I were betting on the game, I like the home team in a fairly even game getting points.

 

[LarryMullenJr.]

The first person who makes the "casinos aren't built by the bettors doing well" comment gets slapped.

 

[hawkisak]

Just remember that Steve Wynn's $25mm donation has been a great thing for the U of I!

 

[Jhawkfootball06]

The line moves accordingly to the bets. Like others have said, the goal is to get 50/50 to maximize potential earnings. Vegas always gets a cut of every bet (fig). That is why you bet $110 to win $100.

When the line was Iowa -3, more people were taking Northwestern than Iowa so the line changes accordingly.

Again, the goal is to get 50% percentage betting one way, and the other 50% betting the opposite way. That is why Vegas lines are so spot on, and why winning consistently in Vegas betting on sports is hard.

But if you ever get a chance.. head down to Vegas during March Madness and try out some College Basketball betting. Best time you'll ever have.

 

[Recruiting Violation]

The first person who makes the "casinos aren't built by the bettors doing well" comment gets slapped.

Well, since you said it, who gets to slap you?

 

[jhawkinaz]

I'll tell you what it means.......it means we are going to 7-0 baby!! Book it.

 

[GnarlyBoy]

Yes, in general Vegas strives for 50/50 to minimize risk. I'd always thought that is strictly what they do. But I heard an interesting talk show not long ago with a person still currently active in the Vegas sports book business. If they feel the public perception of a team is significantly out of line, and they can make more money by hedging, they will.

If 'Casino or whomever' sets a line on Team A at #points, and feel strongly about it, and the bettors start loading up on Team B, 'Casino' may adjust the line toward evening things out, but not as far as it would take to get to 50/50. I don't know how common that is, but it's not rare. A lot of bettors look at polls. Others look at Sagarin. Others look at Kenpom. Others pay for tips. Those various rankings can vary significantly. Look where #1 poll ranked Ohio state is in Sagarin - not real high.

People fall in love with teams for many reasons. Many betting fans are so delusionally biased toward their beloved favorite teams and all the local media bias, they just do not bet objectively. Many bettors WANT a team to win, and will pay a premium to bet on them. Teams with huge passionate fan bases are the most vulnerable. They want to bet for fun and pride, but won't bet against their team. This is why local small bookies can generally get skewed lines compared to Vegas. 1st rule in gambling is 'Don't bet with your heart'.

 

[Pepperman]

I don't know who credibly saw Iowa -3 in this one? It might have been an opening line at some offshore book, but I saw a "PICK" yesterday in early action.

As for gambling knowledge on this board it is horrifically bad. I don't even try to explain it to people anymore... not worth the time when people think they know it so well.

To quickly summarize it though:
1) Sports betting is not at all the same as casino gambling
2) The house doesn't strive for a perfect 50-50. Sometimes they will slant on purpose.

 

[NileKinnicksGhost]

I saw the spread here:
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/matchups/

This morning it showed it opening at -3 and pick'em. Now it's back to -1 for the Hawks.

 

[HobbieHawk]

Vegas lines?

First you pay the lady behind the counter. then you step up to the end of the line until the hostess seats you

 

[ANYCHawk]

The first person who makes the "casinos aren't built by the bettors doing well" comment gets slapped.

The town will never be the same. After the Tangiers, the big corporations took it all over. Today it looks like Disneyland. And while the kids play cardboard pirates, Mommy and Daddy drop the house payments and Junior's college money on the poker slots. In the old days, dealers knew your name, what you drank, what you played. Today, it's like checkin' into an airport. And if you order room service, you're lucky if you get it by Thursday. Today, it's all gone. You get a whale show up with four million in a suitcase, and some twenty-five-year-old hotel school kid is gonna want his Social Security Number. After the Teamsters got knocked out of the box, the corporations tore down practically every one of the old casinos. And where did the money come from to rebuild the pyramids? Junk bonds. But in the end, I wound up right back where I started. I could still pick winners, and I could still make money for all kinds of people back home. And why mess up a good thing?

 

[NevadaHawk]

The town will never be the same. After the Tangiers, the big corporations took it all over. Today it looks like Disneyland. And while the kids play cardboard pirates, Mommy and Daddy drop the house payments and Junior's college money on the poker slots. In the old days, dealers knew your name, what you drank, what you played. Today, it's like checkin' into an airport. And if you order room service, you're lucky if you get it by Thursday. Today, it's all gone. You get a whale show up with four million in a suitcase, and some twenty-five-year-old hotel school kid is gonna want his Social Security Number. After the Teamsters got knocked out of the box, the corporations tore down practically every one of the old casinos. And where did the money come from to rebuild the pyramids? Junk bonds. But in the end, I wound up right back where I started. I could still pick winners, and I could still make money for all kinds of people back home. And why mess up a good thing?

So says Ace Rothstein.

 

[hexumhawk]

I don't want to end up in a cornfield shallow grave.

Anyways, Vegas tries to get bets on both side of the line near 50/50 so they get the vig and always come out ahead.

 

[LarryMullenJr.]

that's one of those movies that no matter how many times you've seen it, and no matter where at in the movie you find it, you have to finish watching it. Classic.

 

[spiderland]

This is something I could probably Google, but I trust all of you to explain this to me.

Iowa vs. Northwestern started out as -3 for Iowa. Assuming home field teams get 3 points by default that would mean that Vegas saw Iowa as a 6 point favorite.

The line has now moved to a pick'em.

Does that mean that the early money came in on Northwestern, so they moved the line to get more action on Iowa?

Now see what you've done...

Edit: Fail on picture upload...

 

[Herkmeister]

Could also be intentional to have more money bet on NW if they feel strongly in favor of Iowa.

NOT!!! They protect the juice. The juice is a sure thing. It is why you cannot beat the house over time.

 

[Gridiron24]

I would never bet on an Iowa game. Never know what team is going to show up on Saturdays.

 

[Mantyhawk]

Home field/home court is usually worth 3 points. As info. is made public during the course of the week, the line may change slightly or drastically. For example, if it were to be reported that CJB was injured much worse than originally stated and may not even take the field, you would see the spread change drastically, given the fact Iowa would be in deep doo doo with out CJB. Say, -14 NU. Same scenario if A.Rodgers was hurt and unable to participate on Sunday also.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

I don't know who credibly saw Iowa -3 in this one? It might have been an opening line at some offshore book, but I saw a "PICK" yesterday in early action.

As for gambling knowledge on this board it is horrifically bad. I don't even try to explain it to people anymore... not worth the time when people think they know it so well.

To quickly summarize it though:
1) Sports betting is not at all the same as casino gambling
2) The house doesn't strive for a perfect 50-50. Sometimes they will slant on purpose.

It's not our fault that the way sports betting is done is f***ed up.....even if you do understand it.

Just sayin...

 

[ichawk24]

Line back to Iowa by 2.5.

 

[Lone Clone]

The town will never be the same. After the Tangiers, the big corporations took it all over. Today it looks like Disneyland. And while the kids play cardboard pirates, Mommy and Daddy drop the house payments and Junior's college money on the poker slots. In the old days, dealers knew your name, what you drank, what you played. Today, it's like checkin' into an airport. And if you order room service, you're lucky if you get it by Thursday. Today, it's all gone. You get a whale show up with four million in a suitcase, and some twenty-five-year-old hotel school kid is gonna want his Social Security Number. After the Teamsters got knocked out of the box, the corporations tore down practically every one of the old casinos. And where did the money come from to rebuild the pyramids? Junk bonds. But in the end, I wound up right back where I started. I could still pick winners, and I could still make money for all kinds of people back home. And why mess up a good thing?

I haven't been there for several years. Has it really regressed to Gambleworld? It went through a period where it was trying to appeal to families, which I thought failed miserable. The most recent times I was there, Vegas was once again catering to grownups -- hence the "What happens in Vegas.....etc." motto.

The first time I was in Vegas was on my honeymoon in '69, and it was one hell of a lot different then. The Mafia still ran everything, so everything was cheaper than dirt. We saw Elvis at the International -- this was before he got fat, when he was at the peak of his concert career -- for $12, which included three drinks. Even in '69, that wasn't much. Breakfast everywhere was 55 cents. They even had some 25-cent blackjack tables on the Strip.

I would guess the population as around 100,000 at the time. But I could be wrong about that.

 

[David1979]

interesting that the line moved back to 2.5. no way would I bet money on this game. I saw where some computer models have Northwestern winning and others have Iowa winning. Its a true toss up.