Final Tally: Dems pick up one seat in the House
- Thread starter noStemsnoSTICKS
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Were you under the impression that Republicans were going to do away with the filibuster like the Democrats attempted to do?
And trump's already grabbed a couple of Republican reps for his cabinet who can't be replaced soon.
what from trump's first term makes you think he's at all interested in legislative accomplishments?
- Sep 13, 2002
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If dems can't cheat....they'll obstruct! Like a broken record.........
As noted, Republicans won a 220-215 majority. That’s down one seat from their effective 221-214 edge in recent months, and it’s down two seats from the 222-213 majority they won in the 2022 election. The GOP also lost former congressman George Santos’s (R-New York) district in a special election earlier this year.
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That 220-215 majority is so tight that it’s actually the second-smallest in history, percentage-wise.
According to data from the Pew Research Center, the only smaller majority came more than a century ago, in the 1917-19 Congress, when Democrats had an effective 217-215 edge.
Here’s Pew’s chart of the smallest majorities, before Santos’s loss:
Other majorities have been tighter than five seats, but that’s when the House was smaller. If you look at the percentage of House seats that make up the majority, the GOP’s less than 1.15 percent edge now ranks as the second smallest, just slightly smaller than Democrats’ 219-214 edge from 1931-33.
That’s because Trump has plucked three House members for his administration, which is something GOP House leaders signaled they weren’t particularly thrilled about.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) said Nov. 12 after the first two House members were picked that there would be “hopefully no more for a little while until special elections can come” to replace those members. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said the same day that he had spoken with Trump and didn’t expect any more House members to be picked.
Just a day later, though, Trump added a shocking third: then-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Florida) for attorney general. Gaetz withdrew a week later, but he had also resigned from Congress by that point, leaving his seat vacant.
Those special elections for Gaetz’s and Rep. Michael Waltz’s (R-Florida) seats won’t happen until April 1. One for Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-New York) is due between 70 and 80 days after she resigns, which hasn’t happened yet.
What Trump’s second administration could mean for environmental justice
https://www.washingtonpost.com/clim..._magnet-trump-presidency_inline_collection_14
All of which means the House GOP’s early business will have precious little margin for error. There is some wiggle room here, but a 217-215 majority would effectively mean they can’t lose even one Republican vote if all Democrats vote against them.
There’s also the unlikely prospect that Democrats could win one of those special elections and narrow the GOP’s majority even further for the rest of Congress.
Gaetz’s and Waltz’s districts are very red, but Stefanik’s is less so, having gone for Trump by 12 points in 2020. And Democrats have over-performed in special elections in recent years.
Trump in 2017 nominated a pair of House members whose districts he had won by more than 20 points, but the GOP held both of their districts by just six points.
In the House, we also have some very recent history to show how challenging the next two years could be. But even that might undersell the drama that lies ahead.
The 222-213/221-214 House majority of the past two years was one of the most riven and unproductive in history. We saw a House speaker removed for the first time ever when just eight Republicans voted with Democrats to remove him. We saw a historically small number of bills passed. And when Speaker Johnson did get something big done, he was often forced to rely on the votes of Democrats because his conference was so split and unwieldy. That was the case on avoiding a government shutdown, passing aid to Ukraine and on major spending bills.
Toss in Trump’s tendency to push the envelope and challenge his party to fall in line (like on his Cabinet picks), and it’s a recipe for plenty of heartburn with an even smaller majority. Even at 220-215, Republicans can lose the votes of just two GOP members if all Democrats vote the other way.
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(These numbers are rough because there are often vacancies in the House.)
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That 220-215 majority is so tight that it’s actually the second-smallest in history, percentage-wise.
According to data from the Pew Research Center, the only smaller majority came more than a century ago, in the 1917-19 Congress, when Democrats had an effective 217-215 edge.
Here’s Pew’s chart of the smallest majorities, before Santos’s loss:
Other majorities have been tighter than five seats, but that’s when the House was smaller. If you look at the percentage of House seats that make up the majority, the GOP’s less than 1.15 percent edge now ranks as the second smallest, just slightly smaller than Democrats’ 219-214 edge from 1931-33.
But it’ll be likely be even smaller for a good while
Practically speaking, though, the GOP’s majority should be even smaller for months — as thin as 217-215 (the same as that smallest-ever 1917-19 Congress).That’s because Trump has plucked three House members for his administration, which is something GOP House leaders signaled they weren’t particularly thrilled about.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) said Nov. 12 after the first two House members were picked that there would be “hopefully no more for a little while until special elections can come” to replace those members. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said the same day that he had spoken with Trump and didn’t expect any more House members to be picked.
Just a day later, though, Trump added a shocking third: then-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Florida) for attorney general. Gaetz withdrew a week later, but he had also resigned from Congress by that point, leaving his seat vacant.
Those special elections for Gaetz’s and Rep. Michael Waltz’s (R-Florida) seats won’t happen until April 1. One for Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-New York) is due between 70 and 80 days after she resigns, which hasn’t happened yet.
What Trump’s second administration could mean for environmental justice
https://www.washingtonpost.com/clim..._magnet-trump-presidency_inline_collection_14
All of which means the House GOP’s early business will have precious little margin for error. There is some wiggle room here, but a 217-215 majority would effectively mean they can’t lose even one Republican vote if all Democrats vote against them.
There’s also the unlikely prospect that Democrats could win one of those special elections and narrow the GOP’s majority even further for the rest of Congress.
Gaetz’s and Waltz’s districts are very red, but Stefanik’s is less so, having gone for Trump by 12 points in 2020. And Democrats have over-performed in special elections in recent years.
Trump in 2017 nominated a pair of House members whose districts he had won by more than 20 points, but the GOP held both of their districts by just six points.
Recent history — and Trump — suggest that will make things very difficult
We’ve already seen how even a significantly larger GOP majority in the Senate — 6 percent (53-47) — can cause problems when it comes to signing off on Trump’s controversial ideas. A small handful of GOP senators balking at Trump’s unorthodox nominees has already imperiled some of them, like Defense secretary pick Pete Hegseth, and led to Gaetz’s withdrawal.In the House, we also have some very recent history to show how challenging the next two years could be. But even that might undersell the drama that lies ahead.
The 222-213/221-214 House majority of the past two years was one of the most riven and unproductive in history. We saw a House speaker removed for the first time ever when just eight Republicans voted with Democrats to remove him. We saw a historically small number of bills passed. And when Speaker Johnson did get something big done, he was often forced to rely on the votes of Democrats because his conference was so split and unwieldy. That was the case on avoiding a government shutdown, passing aid to Ukraine and on major spending bills.
Toss in Trump’s tendency to push the envelope and challenge his party to fall in line (like on his Cabinet picks), and it’s a recipe for plenty of heartburn with an even smaller majority. Even at 220-215, Republicans can lose the votes of just two GOP members if all Democrats vote the other way.
Yes. I believe they're starting off down three (Gaetz, Stefanik and Waltz), which brings the tally to 217 (Rs) to 215 (Ds).
Talk about a 'mandate.'
I'm under the impression that zero legislation will get signed, even with your 'mandated' majority. lol
Makes me wonder why so many people celebrate Christmas. They don’t believe in Santa or God yet they get together and buy gifts and take time off from work.
the Dictator day 1 doesn’t need congress anyway… Jan 21 we won’t even have a congress anymore, just a supreme ruler with full presidential immunity… we are even changing the name of the country to Trumpland and grab her right in the …. Is gonna be on all our paper money
It’s for the same reason that the rich people who vote democrat and believe the rich don’t pay their fair share, don’t pay more on their own.
You saying you still believe in Santa? Or you just lumping him in with Jesus because they both have David Blaine qualities?
Solid point. Besides increasing our national debt via his tax cut for the wealthy, I can't think of any legislation that got passed. Even when he had majorities in both houses.
Democrats discussed it, and had a serious discussion about it, but then neglected to do it. Republicans will do it, but it will only be for a specific reason. Like, I doubt they do it for an immigration bill. Hell, they'll probably make sure something is in there to make Democrats filibuster it. Like, full funding for concentration camps or illegals automatically become indenture servants or something stupid like that. They don't actually want to solve that problem. Now, if they get an opportunity to make massive cuts to Social Security or Medicare or eliminate it completely, absolutely they would kill the filibuster. But there's no way those bills get through the House with a margin as slim as it is.
They are just pissed that they can't spend the next 2 years putting on a show trial of Hunter Biden. I'm sure they will find something else to deflect with though.
I fully expect the left to obstruct at every turn, good of the country be damned.
You may be wrong on this. I've seen some claims that it's now possible that Hunter can't plead the 5th during congressional testimony.
Wait until you find out about what time of year Jesus was actually born.
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Not sure why you’d be bothered by my question of why non religious people celebrate Christmas if they don’t believe in God or Santa. I don’t see many people celebrating other religious holidays they don’t believe in.
You didn’t even bother defending why you celebrate it. You just went on attack mode. 🤦
How about instead, you try answering why so many non religious people enjoy celebrating a religious holiday.
I think non religious people celebrate christmas as a time to gather with friends and family to celebrate the things we have in common. Such as good health, food on the table, safe travels for family members. Things like that.
But not necessarily celebrating Jesus's birthday.
Great. Call him in. Ask him the questions. Then what will they do? I mean, if I'm him I tell them to eat rocks on any subpoena. Those have been proven to be toothless.
Why do you support an adjudicated rapist and 34 time felon?
unlike his first term, we will need some kind of infrastructure legislation. the IIJA only runs through FFY 2026 (roughly 18 months from now)
American Christmas (tm) is barely a religious holiday
unless you consider spending money a religious activity
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If that’s the case, why not do it during a nicer time of the year. It’s cold most places during Christmas.
Ya have to admit it, Crazy Filthy Don can tear shit apart, but can't fix anything. For one thing, hes brain dead with a one track mind.
Not against the good of the country. I’m simply convinced Trump has no interest in furthering the interests of the United States if it in any way conflicts with his own self interest
Trump doesn't care about legislation.
Not at all.
His only goal all along was revenge against his perceived enemies.
That's why the AG and FBI appointments are the two most critical selections.
Gonna be fun listening to the numpties about "weaponization of the Justice Dept".
You know, the crying during the Biden years.
Not at all.
His only goal all along was revenge against his perceived enemies.
That's why the AG and FBI appointments are the two most critical selections.
Gonna be fun listening to the numpties about "weaponization of the Justice Dept".
You know, the crying during the Biden years.
It's cute that you're dumb enough to think Christmas has anything to do with religion. You probably think Jesus was born on Christmas too. LOL! MAGAts are so f'ing dumb.
