Getting in with 1 loss

[LincolnHawkeye]

Is there a chance of Iowa getting in with one loss now? Obviously there are still some important games to be played by other teams but I think the Ohio state loss opens the door. The only way I could see this happening is if we lose to Nebraska but beat Michigan St in the title game. Clemson and Alabama are easy 1-2 if they win out. But after that it's kind of a mess. Notre Dame could lose to Stanford. The winner of Oklahoma-Oklahoma St will probably grab the 3rd spot no matter what. But that 4th spot might be the winner of the BTCG if that team only has one loss.

 

[Mountain Man Hawk]

I wish but in college football it's almost always better to lose early than late. If ND loses to Stanford then I agree. Otherwise I would be pretty nervous about getting left out.

 

[ANYCHawk]

No

 

[Buffhawk]

I am not so sure on this. We would have to lose to Nebraska and win against MSU in a very convincing fashion to even be considered as it would have to be proven that the loss to Nebraska was a fluke. Common sense tells me that if we lose to Nebraska, we would be out period as we would drop and not have any time to move back up like Alabama and MSU have.
I am just glad we are where we are and regardless, it has been a rather magical journey! Just going to sit back and enjoy the ride!

 

[jberesford]

Is there a chance of Iowa getting in with one loss now? Obviously there are still some important games to be played by other teams but I think the Ohio state loss opens the door. The only way I could see this happening is if we lose to Nebraska but beat Michigan St in the title game. Clemson and Alabama are easy 1-2 if they win out. But after that it's kind of a mess. Notre Dame could lose to Stanford. The winner of Oklahoma-Oklahoma St will probably grab the 3rd spot no matter what. But that 4th spot might be the winner of the BTCG if that team only has one loss.

Not a Chance. All hopes of that were extinguished yesterday. Michigan State was expected to have two losses, Florida almost got there, and even North Carolina losing would have been helpful. Instead they continued to be a threat to even an undefeated Iowa team (though unlikely). All the sudden you've got some one-loss teams that can make up some serious ground by winning their conference championship games in the case of Florida and North Carolina (Clemson and Alabama).

The big one was Florida, at 2 losses they were toast and could still clip Alabama freeing up a spot. Instead they'll be playing each other FOR that spot. Everyone want to throw Iowa in the bottom of the one loss teams should they lose one.

On a semi-related note, someone explain to me the Sagarin formula. I see Iowa actually lost ground again, down to 17th. Undefeated with an SOS of 62.... Ohio State has a loss, and SOS of 61 and holding strong at #5.... And oh ya, there's a 4 loss USC team ahead of Iowa right now. I don't remember his rankings being out of whack in past years, but good god. It's like the early season RPIs for basketball, it doesn't matter if you win, it only matters who you play...

 

[Scott559]

I think if we lose to Nebraska we can kiss the playoffs goodbye, We just don't seem to have the respect factor that many of the name brands have. I could see a 2 loss team being picked ahead of a one loss Iowa team. (ie) Stanford if they beat Notre Dame.

 

[Cushawk]

13-0 we are in. Guaranteed. 12-1 we are out. Guaranteed.

 

[And1Hawk]

We do not have the recent acumen to get in with one loss. We came out of no where this season and had not been heard from since 2009. Zero chance with a loss.

 

[lockjovi]

Call me crazy all you want but I think if Iowa wins the Big 10 Championship game they are in.

1. Big Ten makes up 1/3 of the top 15 come Tuesday hard to imagine the best conference being left out this year because the name on the jersey is Iowa.
2. Win over Michigan State is a better win than Alabama, Notre Dame or any Big 12 team can claim.
3. Iowa's second best win over Northwestern is better (should be anyways) than any win Alabama and Notre Dame.

 

[Hawktagonapus]

So who gets in instead? A two loss ND or Stanford team? A second SEC or Big 12?
If Notre Dame loses, I think the Big 10 is guaranteed a spot.

 

[BeepBeepInMyJeep]

I think it would take a few breaks, notably Stanford beating ND, Oklahoma St. Beating Oklahoma. Also Pitt, Wisconsin and NW winning next week would be helpful since at 9-3 Wisconsin and Pitt still might be able to squeeze into the top 25. Or Florida could lose to Florida St and beat Alabama, though this seems really far fetched.

I like our chances as 1 loss Big Ten champ against 2 loss Stanford, 1 loss UNC, and 1 loss Baylor or Oklahoma St that didnt schedule anyone in their non conference.
If the Big 12 gets the benefit of the doubt with their bad scheduling I'd be really surprised. Keep in mind that Oklahoma St might have 0 wins over top 25 teams come Tuesday.

 

[BeepBeepInMyJeep]

I would also add that Nebraska would have to be very close and beating MSU in fairly convincing fashion

 

[Mohawkeye]

We won't make it in with 1 loss, but MSU or OSU would if they beat us.

 

[Lone Clone]

Is there a chance of Iowa getting in with one loss now? Obviously there are still some important games to be played by other teams but I think the Ohio state loss opens the door. The only way I could see this happening is if we lose to Nebraska but beat Michigan St in the title game. Clemson and Alabama are easy 1-2 if they win out. But after that it's kind of a mess. Notre Dame could lose to Stanford. The winner of Oklahoma-Oklahoma St will probably grab the 3rd spot no matter what. But that 4th spot might be the winner of the BTCG if that team only has one loss.

I don't know about the OU-OSU winner. You can't dismiss the fact that the committee has two reps from the BiG and two from the SEC. Presumably there's going to be a two-way tie for the Big XII title at 11-1, and we know what happened last season. Moreover, quarterbacks are becoming an endangered species in that league. Oklahoma finished without its Heisman candidate yesterday and Baylor finished without its top two QBs.

Assuming Iowa splits its last two games, I think OU would have a better case at 11-1 than the Hawks; not sure about Okie State or Baylor. Stanford could simplify things by beating Notre Dame and Auburn by beating Alabama.

If it's Clemson and four one-loss teams, somebody's going to get left out (I checked the math, and I'm sure of that).

 

[SotaHawk87]

I think FSU beats Florida.. However I give Florida about a 10% chance of beating Alabama.. That would make my life tho!

 

[millah_22]

No, but a Rose Bowl wouldn't be too bad either.

 

[HellaHawk]

I think everyone is underestimating our odds in this situation. It's pretty clear that the ACC, SEC, and BIG12 are only getting one school each. The 4th spot is between the PAC12, the ND, and the BIG10. If Iowa or MSU win out, then they will get the 4th spot. If Iowa suffers a close loss to Nebraska, but beats MSU then things get interesting. ND will take the 4th spot if it beats Stanford. However, if ND loses its down to Iowa and Stanford. I think it would be very hard for the committee to take Stanford over Iowa in this situation given that the BIG10 is the best league, (the BIG10 stands to make a lot of money by getting a team in and will be very mad if a 1-loss BIG10 team does not make it), Stanford will have 2 losses to Iowa's 1 loss, and the common opponent factor (Northwester) strongly favors Iowa.

 

[HawkeyeDenny]

NO..!!

 

[soybean]

If this was 2016, then yes.

 

[Mountain Man Hawk]

I think everyone is underestimating our odds in this situation. It's pretty clear that the ACC, SEC, and BIG12 are only getting one school each. The 4th spot is between the PAC12, the ND, and the BIG10. If Iowa or MSU win out, then they will get the 4th spot. If Iowa suffers a close loss to Nebraska, but beats MSU then things get interesting. ND will take the 4th spot if it beats Stanford. However, if ND loses its down to Iowa and Stanford. I think it would be very hard for the committee to take Stanford over Iowa in this situation given that the BIG10 is the best league, (the BIG10 stands to make a lot of money by getting a team in and will be very mad if a 1-loss BIG10 team does not make it), Stanford will have 2 losses to Iowa's 1 loss, and the common opponent factor (Northwester) strongly favors Iowa.

After thinking about it some more, I think this is right. Obviously if there are no upsets the rest of the season then I agree with everyone else the Big10 would get left out if we lose to Nebraska and beat MSU. But if ND loses to Stanford (not that far fetched), I would like our odds. Also, if Oklahoma loses to OSU then it might be a toss up between a 1-loss Iowa and a 1-loss Baylor or Oklahoma St. I kind of think our non-conference win over Pitt plus wins over Michigan St, Northwestern, and Wisconsin would be pretty attractive to the committee, even if we lost to Nebraska. Our win over MSU would be at least as good as any wins those teams would have and we would potentially have as many as 4 top-25 wins on our resume if Pitt/Wisconsin/NW all win out as expected.