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Giving up 15/13 Offensive Boards to GT/TCU (10 2H Offensive to Duke) is a weakness that must be addressed

KcTo

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Few teams can sustain winning versus top 20 teams when they can’t control their defensive boards. 17 rebounds to GT is up from the TCU game, and points in paint in GT game were near equivalent.

here is the thread that this should go under, but I wanted to bring this specific data set to the collective here.


something needs to change, agree?
 
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Iowa our-rebounded GT 44 - 35. Can't complain too much about that. The TCU game was brutal but their depth inside wore Iowa down. Iowa should have played Josh O in the first half if for nothing else just to wear down their bigs. This is in hindsight, of course, so something that we'll probably see more in the future.
 
The GT zone defense was a good way for our rebounding to rebound. Their coach admitted afterward that their 3-ball protection priority zone makes them a poor defensive rebounding team, so they have to work on it a lot.
 
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Few teams can sustain winning versus top 20 teams when they can’t control their defensive boards. 17 rebounds to GT is up from the TCU game, and points in paint in GT game were near equivalent.

here is the thread that this should go under, but I wanted to bring this specific data set to the collective here.


something needs to change, agree?
It should have been addressed in the portal but wasn’t. Nothing we can do about it now.
 
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It should have been addressed in the portal but wasn’t. Nothing we can do about it now.
They could go extended minutes with Ogundele at C, Rebraca and his mid range game, with Murray in the SF, along with a 2 guard approach,,,,, that would work for 15 minutes a game, or about 33% of the game IOWA could actually be a plus rebounding team, and not the abject failure this team can be at rebounding and defending the rim
 
Fran had 3 options at the end of last season to address interior play and he whiffed on all of them.

1) Get help in the portal
2) Show us why he recruited Josh and/or Mulvey by something resembling on court contributions
3) Transform Rebraca's game to include mid-range shots and ensure he is not a liability at the FT line.

Credit Rebraca for bulking up and the improvements he has made but at the end of the day he gives up too much size and can't be on the floor late in games due to his FT shooting. He battled against Georgia Tech but why he thinks bringing the ball down to his knees and double / triple pump faking is a good idea is beyond me. Dude has springs and needs to get the board and go back up. He is our best and only option and nothing but respect for how hard the kid battles, but he will inevitably get into foul trouble early in games which exposes Kris to foul trouble if Fran slides him to the 5.

I would like to see someone in the media ask Fran what's up with Josh and Mulvey. We were told both took big steps in the offseason (particularly Mulvey) but Fran apparently has 0 confidence in him.
 
Few teams can sustain winning versus top 20 teams when they can’t control their defensive boards. 17 rebounds to GT is up from the TCU game, and points in paint in GT game were near equivalent.

here is the thread that this should go under, but I wanted to bring this specific data set to the collective here.


something needs to change, agree?
Raw rebounding numbers aren't a good way to gauge rebounding. Look at % of opponent misses are rebounded by the opponent and vice versa. Iowa's defensive rebounding against GTech was not great. Tech rebounded 37% of its own misses. Against TCU, Iowa allowed the Horned Frogs to rebound nearly 42% of their misses. That is very bad. You combine that with the fact that TCU made 60% of their 2-point shots, that is a quick way to get beat.

Iowa is going to have issues rebounding defensively against every good, physical opponent. They just are. Effort and focus come into play somewhat, but strong and physical is just not what this Iowa team is. If Iowa can just hold teams at bay on the defensive rebounding side, they will have a shot as Iowa is very good at other things. Against Seton Hall, Seton Hall rebounded 41% of its misses, that is terrible defensive rebounding by Iowa. But the Pirates shot terrible from 2-point range, turned the ball over a lot more than Iowa and Iowa got to the line way more than Seton Hall, so Iowa won comfortably.
 
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Fran had 3 options at the end of last season to address interior play and he whiffed on all of them.

1) Get help in the portal
2) Show us why he recruited Josh and/or Mulvey by something resembling on court contributions
3) Transform Rebraca's game to include mid-range shots and ensure he is not a liability at the FT line.

Credit Rebraca for bulking up and the improvements he has made but at the end of the day he gives up too much size and can't be on the floor late in games due to his FT shooting. He battled against Georgia Tech but why he thinks bringing the ball down to his knees and double / triple pump faking is a good idea is beyond me. Dude has springs and needs to get the board and go back up. He is our best and only option and nothing but respect for how hard the kid battles, but he will inevitably get into foul trouble early in games which exposes Kris to foul trouble if Fran slides him to the 5.

I would like to see someone in the media ask Fran what's up with Josh and Mulvey. We were told both took big steps in the offseason (particularly Mulvey) but Fran apparently has 0 confidence in him.
What exactly is Fran going to say about Josh and Mulvey? That they aren't ready to compete at this level? No coach is going to say that publicly about their own players. Because they aren't. I too wish they would have brought in help from the portal, but this has been addressed ad nauseum here. Fran was after many players in the portal. None of them came here. All had more significant NIL offers from the schools they chose.

Rebraca has improved, his numbers are better across the board. He is getting a greater % of rebounds when he is on the court compared to last year, his block rate is up, his assist rate is up, and his ability to draw fouls and get to the line is way up. He has attempted 37 free throws in 7 games, after getting to the line 58 times in 36 games last year. Now, it would be great if he made more than 65% of his free throws, but even that is better than the 60% he made last year.

I get what you are saying about getting more out of Mulvey and Ogundele, I do. But there is no magic wand to wave to make them into good players. They were projects to begin with, and it looks as if neither one is going to be a real contributor. Asking Fran what is up with them will do change nothing, and if Fran were asked that question he would refuse to answer it (as he should). Iowa bringing in Koch, Freeman, Dembele in future classes and recruiting more big guys tells you that Fran knows he needs major help inside after this year. Iowa will be active in the portal again for big men (hopefully they can get one this time).
 
Iowa only has two people rebounding for the most part. When is the last time you saw Pmac agressively go to the boards in a game, but yet is the 3 position.
You are right. When Kris and Rebraca aren't both in is when are rebounding struggles. I think Connor does a good when he's in. But we need our guards like Ulis and Perkins with their size help out when 1 of those 2 are on the bench. But speaking of PMac I totally agree. With all his talent I think sometimes he loafs little too much when shot isn't falling and isn't tough enough in the paint. Need him to be more aggressive on the boards. Can't blame his frame we saw for years White and even Uthoff do well rebounding. Kind of cliche and corny but rebounding lot of it is about attitude.
 
Raw rebounding numbers aren't a good way to gauge rebounding. Look at % of opponent misses are rebounded by the opponent and vice versa. Iowa's defensive rebounding against GTech was not great. Tech rebounded 37% of its own misses. Against TCU, Iowa allowed the Horned Frogs to rebound nearly 42% of their misses. That is very bad. You combine that with the fact that TCU made 60% of their 2-point shots, that is a quick way to get beat.

Iowa is going to have issues rebounding defensively against every good, physical opponent. They just are. Effort and focus come into play somewhat, but strong and physical is just not what this Iowa team is. If Iowa can just hold teams at bay on the defensive rebounding side, they will have a shot as Iowa is very good at other things. Against Seton Hall, Seton Hall rebounded 41% of its misses, that is terrible defensive rebounding by Iowa. But the Pirates shot terrible from 2-point range, turned the ball over a lot more than Iowa and Iowa got to the line way more than Seton Hall, so Iowa won comfortably.
This is very good next level analysis, thank you for doing the work.

37, 41, and 42% of opponents missed shots are rebounded by opponents vs Power 5 teams is a fatal diagnosis. IOWAs ability for sustaining wins is near impossible with this fatal flaw.

rebounding % isn’t as sexy as double doubles , but much more predictive of success.
thanks again for the effort here
 
PM and PS are not rebounders and they have to be. Getting next to nothing from JO and RM is a complete disappointment. CM, for as much as I have ragged on him, has been a huge bright spot but he's undersized at the 4. Rebounding will be a big problem for us unless a couple of guys learn to box out.
 
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It should have been addressed in the portal but wasn’t. Nothing we can do about it now.
Addressing a problem and being able to actually do something about it are two different things. Nobody on this Board knows for fact what Fran tried to do. They can only comment about what they think happened and they are wrong far more often than not.
 
You are right. When Kris and Rebraca aren't both in is when are rebounding struggles. I think Connor does a good when he's in. But we need our guards like Ulis and Perkins with their size help out when 1 of those 2 are on the bench. But speaking of PMac I totally agree. With all his talent I think sometimes he loafs little too much when shot isn't falling and isn't tough enough in the paint. Need him to be more aggressive on the boards. Can't blame his frame we saw for years White and even Uthoff do well rebounding. Kind of cliche and corny but rebounding lot of it is about attitude.
an Issue is when Rebraca comes out, you’ve got a ‘front line’ of Murray, PMac, Sandfort or CMac, all of them have their isssues rebounding (Murray for example isn’t a going too be physical with a strong post player)

This group will get abused over and over agin by any legit power 5 front line.

an option is to play Ogundele as he can play physical ball on both ends, does rebound, can play D against the biggest guys,, I hope Fran can make that work…as these small lineups will simply limit iowas chances of upside success.
 
This is very good next level analysis, thank you for doing the work.

37, 41, and 42% of opponents missed shots are rebounded by opponents vs Power 5 teams is a fatal diagnosis. IOWAs ability for sustaining wins is near impossible with this fatal flaw.

rebounding % isn’t as sexy as double doubles , but much more predictive of success.
thanks again for the effort here
I would counter and say it isn't fatal. Iowa beat Seton Hall and Georgia Tech by double digits even when giving up a large % of offensive rebounds, because Iowa badly outplayed Seton Hall and Georgia Tech in other areas. Seton Hall, it was Iowa getting to the line a lot more and turning it over at half the rate did the Pirates. Against Georgia Tech, it was due to Iowa shooting a lot better % from the field and getting to the line 31 times compared to 10 for Tech. Iowa also rebounded 48% of its own misses against G Tech, so Iowa won the rebounding battle as well. That's why Iowa won by 16. Now, is it likely that rebounding costs Iowa in games where opponents play even with/play better than Iowa in other factors? Of course. See the TCU game.

The tradeoff of Iowa not being all that big and physical is that many teams will struggle a lot to defend Kris Murray on the perimeter. When he is making 3's, he's hard to guard. Put a big guy on him, he can go outside. Put a small guy on him who can guard on the perimeter, he can go inside.
 
You maybe correct in that it’s not fatal with the caveat that your opponent is a lower tier Power 5 team (GT) or a middle middle BigEast team, with little chance of making tournament, and if you have a guy that can carry team with a 30/20 night you can probably overcome a few flaws that are normally fatal.

i do believe this will be a fatal flaw when playing NCAA tournament teams like TCU.

either way it will be an interesting metric to follow and watch how Fran adjusts
 
Iowa only has two people rebounding for the most part. When is the last time you saw Pmac agressively go to the boards in a game, but yet is the 3 position.
He's the 3rd leading rebounder on the team behind the two you mentioned and he plays the 3 and the top 2 rebounders are C and PF. I'm not going to argue he is a good rebounder but signaling him out is kind of weird in that he is rebounding about where you would expect him.

The per 40 rebounding has Murray, Rebraca, and Josh O (also a C) above Sandfort and PMac who are the two SF's and about the same.

Iowa is 34th in Rebounding nationally. Their Offensive Rebounding is very strong, while their Defensive Rebounding is average.

Iowa's Opponent Rebounding is 134th. They could be a little better but considering how Iowa does not have a very big OR deep front-line, they actually aren't doing that bad.

The Defensive Rebounding is the one area they could improve some for sure.
 
Fran said big O has earned minutes. Nothing about Mulvey but i expect O to be getting 10 minutes a game from now on.
 
They could go extended minutes with Ogundele at C, Rebraca and his mid range game, with Murray in the SF, along with a 2 guard approach,,,,, that would work for 15 minutes a game, or about 33% of the game IOWA could actually be a plus rebounding team, and not the abject failure this team can be at rebounding and defending the rim
Best idea I've heard lately!
 
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They’ve ranked in the top 200 nationally in def. rebounding % 1 time in the past 8 years.

They ranked 143rd starting 3 centers half the year in 17-18. The trade off for being middle of the pack rebounding was clearly nowhere near worth it. They’ve started 2 centers at various points and it hasn’t worked.

It’s not personnel based, it’s schematic. Crash the boards on offense and leak out to get the transition game going on offense. They don’t emphasize blocking out. The eye test and stats tell the same story.

The key going forward is just like last year, don’t turn it over and force turnovers. That’s the only formula that’s going to get Iowa any major success going forward. Find a way to win the possession battle in spite of rebounding.
 
I don't think the lack of depth inside can be fixed this year. It will be an even bigger problem next year, if Iowa strikes out again in the portal, looking for an experienced big man. JoshO has earned some minutes, but if he plays more than 3-4 min a half, other teams, especially a team like Duke, are going to exploit his lack of mobility. I have no idea what is going on with Mulvey, but he seems lost. Our guards are all capable of getting some boards, and that can help.
 
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I thought Iowa rebounded pretty well against gt. I've heard Fran say that rebounding is going to be key this year. Hopefully we continue to improve
Yes, offeensive rebounding against a zone we did well, but then again so will anyone

the much bigger concern is a small lineup, with a front line of 6 6”, 6 7”, 6 7”, had tremendous success against a taller IOWA front line,

with the conclusion being of IOWA can’t control a lineup smaller than them, hoe on earth will they do versus bigger lineups of the top 25 teams.
 
I don't think the lack of depth inside can be fixed this year. It will be an even bigger problem next year, if Iowa strikes out again in the portal, looking for an experienced big man. JoshO has earned some minutes, but if he plays more than 3-4 min a half, other teams, especially a team like Duke, are going to exploit his lack of mobility. I have no idea what is going on with Mulvey, but he seems lost. Our guards are all capable of getting some boards, and that can help.
The only reason Ogundele plays 3-4 minutes/ hard is because of Frans Decision making

Ogundele could easily play in two 3-4 minute stretches each half or about 12 to 16 minutes/gm.
this would certainly make the lineup a better rebounding unit when Rebraca must sit, or to provide inside D versus those bigs that easily shoot over Rebraca
 
The only reason Ogundele plays 3-4 minutes/ hard is because of Frans Decision making

Ogundele could easily play in two 3-4 minute stretches each half or about 12 to 16 minutes/gm.
this would certainly make the lineup a better rebounding unit when Rebraca must sit, or to provide inside D versus those bigs that easily shoot over Rebraca
I think you are overestimating Josh's ability. Tell me how Josh will guard either of Duke's starting big men, who aren't going to stand near the basket and let him push them. If Fran can get him into the game when Young is in, that might work. It will be similar against other teams. Josh can definitely help against Purdon'ts big man, but if he is forced to move more than 10 ft from the basket on either end, other teams will exploit his limitations. Fran must assess on a more overall team basis than rebounding alone, which is an Iowa weakness. It would be nice if I am wrong, but I haven't seen anything that suggests Josh should get extended minutes. This might be an even more important argument next year.
 
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The only reason Ogundele plays 3-4 minutes/ hard is because of Frans Decision making

Ogundele could easily play in two 3-4 minute stretches each half or about 12 to 16 minutes/gm.
this would certainly make the lineup a better rebounding unit when Rebraca must sit, or to provide inside D versus those bigs that easily shoot over Rebraca
Yeah I liked how they used him end of 1st half 3-4 for each game vs TCU and Clemson. Even can do it earlier in half if Kris or Rebraca get in foul trouble because against some bigger teams like Purdue, Michigan and IU we are going to need another bigger body and get minutes from JO or Mulvey.
 
I think you are overestimating Josh's ability. Tell me how Josh will guard either of Duke's starting big men, who aren't going to stand near the basket and let him push them. If Fran can get him into the game when Young is in, that might work. It will be similar against other teams. Josh can definitely help against Purdon'ts big man, but if he is forced to move more than 10 ft from the basket on either end, other teams will exploit his limitations. Fran must assess on a more overall team basis than rebounding alone, which is an Iowa weakness. It would be nice if I am wrong, but I haven't seen anything that suggests Josh should get extended minutes. This might be an even more important argument next year.
Totally agree on this. It's weird the obsession some have with Josh O. It's pretty obvious that he is pretty limited on how/when he can be used and he looks completely gassed after 2-4 minutes on the floor.

Against teams like GT and Seton Hall, those are not great match-ups, thus why he didn't play against them. Against bigger teams, he can definitely provide some value in small spurts. But as you said, nothing suggests he should be getting - or that he could even handle - extended minutes.
 
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I think you are overestimating Josh's ability. Tell me how Josh will guard either of Duke's starting big men, who aren't going to stand near the basket and let him push them. If Fran can get him into the game when Young is in, that might work. It will be similar against other teams. Josh can definitely help against Purdon'ts big man, but if he is forced to move more than 10 ft from the basket on either end, other teams will exploit his limitations. Fran must assess on a more overall team basis than rebounding alone, which is an Iowa weakness. It would be nice if I am wrong, but I haven't seen anything that suggests Josh should get extended minutes. This might be an even more important argument next year.
you’ve got a case of FEAR. Future Events Appearing Real. fearing the unknown more than the known.

IOWA has known weakness in allowing 2nd chance points, points in the pain, which will be exploited like TCU did.

would you rather have TCU rev2 with Duke exploiting this weakness?
or
would you take your chances with Ogundele forcing the Duke bigs to beat them from the perimeter?

I think the strategy should be clear for all to see…
 
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you’ve got a case of FEAR. Future Events Appearing Real. fearing the unknown more than the known.

IOWA has known weakness in allowing 2nd chance points, points in the pain, which will be exploited like TCU did.

would you rather have TCU rev2 with Duke exploiting this weakness?
or
would you take your chances with Ogundele forcing the Duke bigs to beat them from the perimeter?

I think the strategy should be clear for all to see…
I have been watching BB for probably longer than you have existed. I wasn't good, but I also played some. I think you are grasping for options that are not likely to work, except under limited circumstances, and it appears that Fran agrees, or you would be seeing Josh a lot more than you have. We all would like the Hawks to have more available at 4/5, but unless something changes dramatically, that is probably not going to change this season. I would be thrilled to see evidence that I am wrong.

Tell me again how Josh is going to guard either of Duke's starting big men.
 
”nothing suggests he should be getting more minutes”

there is the results that Ogundele is (40minutes)
  • Rebounding similar to Rebraca 11.2 to 11.7
  • Block shots similar to Rebraca 1.9 to 2.1
  • 1st team in Assist/40m
  • 2nd in Steals/40m
  • 1st in defensive ratings 82 pts / 100 possession
  • 1st in Off Rebounding %
what about these numbers to suggest more minutes?
 
I have been watching BB for probably longer than you have existed. I wasn't good, but I also played some. I think you are grasping for options that are not likely to work, except under limited circumstances, and it appears that Fran agrees, or you would be seeing Josh a lot more than you have. We all would like the Hawks to have more available at 4/5, but unless something changes dramatically, that is probably not going to change this season. I would be thrilled to see evidence that I am wrong.

Tell me again how Josh is going to guard either of Duke's starting big men.
”Tell me again how Josh is going to guard either of Duke's starting big men.”

The question should be “tell me how Rebraca, murray and PMac are going to guard Dukes Big Men

Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity. -Enstien

We know Fran doesn’t sit on the right side of Christ, so he does make misjudgemnets on a regular basis
(that said, I 100% trust in Fran, just not all of his decisions)
 
I have been watching BB for probably longer than you have existed. I wasn't good, but I also played some. I think you are grasping for options that are not likely to work, except under limited circumstances, and it appears that Fran agrees, or you would be seeing Josh a lot more than you have. We all would like the Hawks to have more available at 4/5, but unless something changes dramatically, that is probably not going to change this season. I would be thrilled to see evidence that I am wrong.

Tell me again how Josh is going to guard either of Duke's starting big men.
BTW, when you start your comment with a completely assinine comment like this
“I have been watching BB for probably longer than you have existed.”
the rest of your comments are invalidated because you don’t know ”how long I’ve existed” , do you?

And you Don’t have to have played, coached, and watched BB to know that getting owned in the paint is the best predictor of success, and this teams current deployment of players and distribution of minutes is going to owned in this area in the B1G,

does that mean the deployment of Ogundele will solve this, probably not, does that that more minutes for Ogundele will solve this? Probably no.

but what we do know this team needs to do something different or points in the paint differential will be a leading cause of losses, especially to top 15-20 quality teams
 
When I think of great rebounders, Josh Ogundele does not come to mind. He can't move and he can't jump. If he get a board, it likely came off the rim directly to him. He is a space eater, which has some value, but making him out to be much more than that is folly.
 
GT is a fast team. Dam fast.

Speed, quickness and strength can beat size on the boards.
 
BTW, when you start your comment with a completely assinine comment like this
“I have been watching BB for probably longer than you have existed.”
the rest of your comments are invalidated because you don’t know ”how long I’ve existed” , do you?

And you Don’t have to have played, coached, and watched BB to know that getting owned in the paint is the best predictor of success, and this teams current deployment of players and distribution of minutes is going to owned in this area in the B1G,

does that mean the deployment of Ogundele will solve this, probably not, does that that more minutes for Ogundele will solve this? Probably no.

but what we do know this team needs to do something different or points in the paint differential will be a leading cause of losses, especially to top 15-20 quality teams
Sorry, I was getting frustrated trying to respond to you. I could have said something way more offensive, but resisted. I should have just said that you are right about needing to do a better job getting defensive rebounds. I have been saying depth at 4/5 is the team's weakness, since the beginning of the season. BUT, if you think playing Josh for extended minutes is the answer, you lose a lot of credibility as a self-proclaimed basketball analyst. Josh would be taking minutes from a much better player, no matter who you decide to send to the bench. I wish the Hawks were deeper on the interior, but there are other aspects to the game besides rebounding.

BTW, if you use words like "assinine", you should learn how to spell them. Being nice, I sit on my ass, but there is no ass in asinine.
 
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Sorry, I was getting frustrated trying to respond to you. I could have said something way more offensive, but resisted. I should have just said that you are right about needing to do a better job getting defensive rebounds. I have been saying depth at 4/5 is the team's weakness, since the beginning of the season. BUT, if you think playing Josh for extended minutes is the answer, you lose a lot of credibility as a self-proclaimed basketball analyst. Josh would be taking minutes from a much better player, no matter who you decide to send to the bench. I wish the Hawks were deeper on the interior, but there are other aspects to the game besides rebounding.

BTW, if you use words like "assinine", you should learn how to spell them. Being nice, I sit on my ass, but there is no ass in asinine.
No offense taken….

here are Ogundele #’s so far..please share how playing him “takes minutes from a far better player”
there is the results that Ogundele is (40minutes)
  • Rebounding similar to Rebraca 11.2 to 11.7
  • Block shots similar to Rebraca 1.9 to 2.1
  • 1st team in Assist/40m
  • 2nd in Steals/40m
  • 1st in defensive ratings 82 pts / 100 possession
  • 1st in Off Rebounding %
Ogundele has done Everything he can control to earn more minutes
he can rebound, block shots, score at high efficiency, contest bigs shots in paint.
agree only for 3-4minutes at a time, however, that’s still 30-40% of game,

Acie Earl was unorthodox and took some time to be appreciated, over tome, so to could Ogundele
 
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Not sure who you are trying to convince. Josh has barely played a full game of minutes all year, and his stats have generally not come during meaningful times of a game. He has not played poorly, and has earned a few minutes. If you can't see his limitations, I'm not sure what I can say. If Josh were forced to guard either one of Duke's starting bigs, he would get embarrassed. Josh is only effective against opposing players who usually stay near the basket and rely on force/size. Playing Josh against Purdon't a few more minutes would make sense, but I will be very surprised if you see him on the court more than 10 minutes in a game unless Kris/Rebraca are in foul trouble or injured. It will usually be less.
 
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