It's how many years since he has been laid.Is 82 the year you graduated or your overall IQ?
AI word saladRagnar, as is tarheel, you are fair minded and I do not generally think of you acting like a dick, as I sometimes do with others that I do not engage with. FWIW, my current thinking is that I will abstain from casting a presidential vote, I will vote for Tim Kaine for Senate (as he's harmless enough with decent Jesuit values, and Cao has no business running for the senate), and I'll vote for Ben Cline notwithstanding his wackiness because everybody gets one chance). As painful as that will be to me personally and as much as it will likely negate my right to bitch for four years. But don't take what I've written as necessarily being persuasive, and similarly, I'm not really here to debate any of this anyway, because well...it's "this" message board, and I know the problems and can think through them myself, and I'm fine with others taking different approaches. To be clear, this is actually a very difficult question to answer, as I always like to start by thinking about what I am "for", move to what I am "against," and lastly focus on "risk management." This is a very difficult race in that neither really has much to offer in the first category.
To your question, a few thoughts...
1. Fundamentally, while neither side is exactly made of small government people, the R side at least pretends to be, and perhaps some of that will stick.
2. I'm much more in favor of setting the conditions/structural incentives for economic opportunity and letting nature take its course, rather than thinking that subsidies are the solution to everything.
3. Internationally, I do think we need to be a bit more muscular and less risk averse. Sometimes you actually have to risk your own people to make the calculus harder for bad actors. I think the Biden-Harris admin did learn this a bit over time, but it is not their instinct. At the very least, whether because of Beau or otherwise, there's a long history to support that it wasn't Biden's.
4. Though it's very far from a pet issue of mine, we do need to do more at the border - my personal view is that we ought to provide a path to citizenship for people willing to work on WPA-like endeavors, but that would probably lead people to think i'm some sort of slavery advocate. it's a good way to get us rebased. Certainly we don't need nearly what he yammers on about, but let's be realistic about which side is more focused on that issue, legislative show ponies notwithstanding.
5. Trump's personal and stylistic flaws obviously outweigh Harris'' (in a negative sense). But I'm frankly disturbed at just how long and how much she went into public hiding. When I see her commercials, there is pretty much no image, and no audio, that is not stagecraft. And i don't mean footage or sound from a live event. I mean put together in a studio/greenscreen environment and read from a script. She finally seems to be getting away from that a bit, but I'm just not sure how much is between her ears, particularly coming with the background of an elected AG, which generally entails a personality type that likes to use force to get things done. one of the reasons that concerns me is that it is pretty much the campaign that Biden ran four years ago. (Don't get me wrong here -- letting Trump shoot himself in the foot is a perfectly valid strategy) . Trump may be a complete loose cannon, but at least you come away with the sense that for better or worse, he rather than some unknown 20something in the west wing will drive things.
6. In the risk management category, I still believe that our institutions are very much capable of resisting some of the wackier elements of his ego and rhetoric. The reality is that our legislative branch is still going to be closely divided, and that, imo, scotus will apply the weapons the conservative legal movement has created over the last 5 years ago to the new admin, whoever they may be (major questions, Chevron). And come 2029, the people who get worked into histrionics are either doing so as an advocacy measure or are just clueless about the size of the reservoir of american civics that is still out there.
7. Relatedly, thinking big, i don't think the R's are nearly as in lock step as the D's. And I think that sort of fragmentation is what it may take to drive political decisionmaking away from parliamentary style and back toward representation models. But that's a 'long' proposition.
Finally, to all those who are going to feel the need to nit pick (or some bigger histrionic pick) this, or call me names, don't bother and a very hearty but well intended preemptive gfy.
No one uses more words to say virtually nothing than you.
@RagnarLothbrok this is exactly the kind of "maggot adjacent" rationalization I was referring to. You see shit like this:Ragnar, as is tarheel, you are fair minded and I do not generally think of you acting like a dick, as I sometimes do with others that I do not engage with. FWIW, my current thinking is that I will abstain from casting a presidential vote, I will vote for Tim Kaine for Senate (as he's harmless enough with decent Jesuit values, and Cao has no business running for the senate), and I'll vote for Ben Cline notwithstanding his wackiness because everybody gets one chance). As painful as that will be to me personally and as much as it will likely negate my right to bitch for four years. But don't take what I've written as necessarily being persuasive, and similarly, I'm not really here to debate any of this anyway, because well...it's "this" message board, and I know the problems and can think through them myself, and I'm fine with others taking different approaches. To be clear, this is actually a very difficult question to answer, as I always like to start by thinking about what I am "for", move to what I am "against," and lastly focus on "risk management." This is a very difficult race in that neither really has much to offer in the first category.
To your question, a few thoughts...
1. Fundamentally, while neither side is exactly made of small government people, the R side at least pretends to be, and perhaps some of that will stick.
2. I'm much more in favor of setting the conditions/structural incentives for economic opportunity and letting nature take its course, rather than thinking that subsidies are the solution to everything.
3. Internationally, I do think we need to be a bit more muscular and less risk averse. Sometimes you actually have to risk your own people to make the calculus harder for bad actors. I think the Biden-Harris admin did learn this a bit over time, but it is not their instinct. At the very least, whether because of Beau or otherwise, there's a long history to support that it wasn't Biden's.
4. Though it's very far from a pet issue of mine, we do need to do more at the border - my personal view is that we ought to provide a path to citizenship for people willing to work on WPA-like endeavors, but that would probably lead people to think i'm some sort of slavery advocate. it's a good way to get us rebased. Certainly we don't need nearly what he yammers on about, but let's be realistic about which side is more focused on that issue, legislative show ponies notwithstanding.
5. Trump's personal and stylistic flaws obviously outweigh Harris'' (in a negative sense). But I'm frankly disturbed at just how long and how much she went into public hiding. When I see her commercials, there is pretty much no image, and no audio, that is not stagecraft. And i don't mean footage or sound from a live event. I mean put together in a studio/greenscreen environment and read from a script. She finally seems to be getting away from that a bit, but I'm just not sure how much is between her ears, particularly coming with the background of an elected AG, which generally entails a personality type that likes to use force to get things done. one of the reasons that concerns me is that it is pretty much the campaign that Biden ran four years ago. (Don't get me wrong here -- letting Trump shoot himself in the foot is a perfectly valid strategy) . Trump may be a complete loose cannon, but at least you come away with the sense that for better or worse, he rather than some unknown 20something in the west wing will drive things.
6. In the risk management category, I still believe that our institutions are very much capable of resisting some of the wackier elements of his ego and rhetoric. The reality is that our legislative branch is still going to be closely divided, and that, imo, scotus will apply the weapons the conservative legal movement has created over the last 5 years ago to the new admin, whoever they may be (major questions, Chevron). And come 2029, the people who get worked into histrionics are either doing so as an advocacy measure or are just clueless about the size of the reservoir of american civics that is still out there.
7. Relatedly, thinking big, i don't think the R's are nearly as in lock step as the D's. And I think that sort of fragmentation is what it may take to drive political decisionmaking away from parliamentary style and back toward representation models. But that's a 'long' proposition.
Finally, to all those who are going to feel the need to nit pick (or some bigger histrionic pick) this, or call me names, don't bother and a very hearty but well intended preemptive gfy.
I agree with you.@RagnarLothbrok this is exactly the kind of "maggot adjacent" rationalization I was referring to. You see shit like this:
"But I'm frankly disturbed at just how long and how much she went into public hiding."
...when she has scheduled multiple interviews including 60 Minutes (that Trump pulled out of) and Fox (upcoming) not to mention accepting multiple debate opportunities that Trump refuses. It's simply a lie to push a false narrative. Her commercials are "stagecraft? I don't even know what that's supposed to mean. ALL political commercials are stagecraft...every single one. Show me a single Trump ad that isn't "stagecraft". Good grief, that's dumb.
That he actually says the R's are less in lock-step than the Dems is absolutely f'n ludicrous. That Republicans who actually worked with Trump are endorsing Harris left and right is simply an indication of how dangerous they think Trump is...but not Aardvark. Trump's JC chairman says he's "fascist to the core" so Aardvark must think Milley is stupid and hysterical and - shoot - we ain't got nothing to worry about. Trump is telling us EXACTLY who and what he is, he's advocating for using US troops against American citizens, and Aardvark's response is "he didn't say that but if he said it he didn't mean it and if he meant it you missed the context and if you got the context...well...he can't actually do it". His claims that he won't vote for Trump are, let's say, highly suspect.
I am going to disagree with you here. I gladly accepted that idea in 2016 when friends voted for Trump despite everything we knew about him. None of them voted for him in 2020 though some either didn't vote or voted third party. All that I see regularly are all in on Harris this time - or at least make that claim.You can mock and ridicule them all you want, but at the end of the day they are decent people doing the best they can. I want them on our side if push comes to shove.
I was originally going to add, "to be clear, Not John Bolton" but thought it might get people worked up.
Most likely outcome (choose from the following):
1. Trump’s presidency will go down as the greatest of all time. Trump will bring unprecedented prosperity to America, foreign conflicts will be resolved, our country’s borders will be secure, and there will be a peaceful transition of power January 2029.
2. Trump’s presidency will be mostly good and there will be a peaceful transition of power at the end of it in 2029.
3. Trump’s presidency will be somewhat good and there will be a peaceful transition of power in 2029.
4. Trump’s presidency will be neither good nor bad and there will be a peaceful transition of power in 2029.
5. Trump’s presidency will be somewhat bad and there will be a peaceful transition of power in 2029.
6. Trump’s presidency will be a shit show, as expected, but nothing remotely bad as the libs predicted will happen and there will be a peaceful transition of power in 2029.
7. Trump’s presidency will be___________(fill in the blank in your response), Trump will try to make the case to the American people to stay in power, enough Republicans will convince him to step away at the end of his term, and Trump reluctantly agrees and there is a successful transition of power in 2029.
8. Trump’s presidency will be ___________. Trump will make the case to stay in power, there will be fraction and division in the Republican Party, and it becomes a big ordeal with Trump eventually having to walk away and leave in a similar fashion as 2021. MAGA starts uprisings and lawlessness.
9. Trump’s presidency will be __________. Trump will make the case to stay in power, will have the backing of most Republicans, violence and civil war break out with _______ (Trump’s regime is put down and democracy is restored or Trump’s regime wins out, he controls the military, and the USA is a dictatorship).
10. Trump’s presidency is ____________. His dictatorship aims are ___________________. He dies in office due to a Big Mac cardiac attack or he is assassinated.
11. Trump becomes a dictator from day one. He is a major threat to the United States and the world. The world responds by ________. Division and violence in America are _____________. Trump’s political enemies are _____________. Illegal immigrants and other nonwhite, non-Christians are ________. This is the end of American democracy, Trump stays in power until death and autocratic power is handed down.
12. Come up with your very own unique position.
I will go on record as #8. Trump’s presidency will be a shit show, with a lot of social unrest and violence worse than the 1960s. At the end, Trump will try to stay in power, there will be serious division in the Republican Party, but eventually Trump will be forced to leave and he will sulk away in protest, leaving the White House in a similar fashion as 2021.
What do you think would have happened if Pence didn't make a stand?4 or 5. I'd consider the chance of it being anything other than 4 or 5 is under 5%.
January 6th was shameful. An embarrassment and probably a crime on Trumps part. Those of you who literally think democracy almost died that day are strange.
2500 people, out of 74 million Trump voters, entered the capitol. The vast majority walked around taking selfies. Almost none were armed, no armed militias streamed in from the heartland of America to back them up or break them up, none of the military didn't came over to the Trump side to make him a dictator. The institutions of government fully held, the courts decided clearly, there was no armed uprising.
None of the things that need to happen to end democracy and make the USA a dictatorship are going to happen.
In principle, I agree with you. You’re preaching to the choir.I am going to disagree with you here. I gladly accepted that idea in 2016 when friends voted for Trump despite everything we knew about him. None of them voted for him in 2020 though some either didn't vote or voted third party. All that I see regularly are all in on Harris this time - or at least make that claim.
To have followed Trump since 2016, heard what he's said, seen what he's done, to know what he plans - even if they believe he can't actually do it...to know ALL of that and still vote for him is the antithesis of a decent person. He is TELLING them what he wants to do...
- he wants to use the administration to punish his political opponents...
- he wants to forcibly deport millions of immigrants - many of them LEGAL...
- he's advocated for "termination of all rules...even those found in the Constitution" if he thinks it's warranted...
- he wants to deploy the US military against US citizens...(that alone should be disqualifying)
And that's just a small though significant sample. They don't get to vote for him now and - if he manages to do those things - say, "Ooops...my bad...never saw THAT coming!!" They're welcome to join the fight against him (they won't) but they will have no claim on decency.
In addition to sending his mob to the Capitol on January 6th for the purpose of interfering with the Congressional process of certifying Biden's states-won electors, Trump also attempted to replace certified Biden electors in seven states with fake electors who illegally certified him. Had this scheme succeeded 13.4 million Biden voters in those seven states would have been disenfranchised. Trump has been indicted on felony charges for his role in attempting to overturn the election. His role and the subsequent felony charges should forever disqualify him from holding public office.4 or 5. I'd consider the chance of it being anything other than 4 or 5 is under 5%.
January 6th was shameful. An embarrassment and probably a crime on Trumps part. Those of you who literally think democracy almost died that day are strange.
2500 people, out of 74 million Trump voters, entered the capitol. The vast majority walked around taking selfies. Almost none were armed, no armed militias streamed in from the heartland of America to back them up or break them up, none of the military didn't came over to the Trump side to make him a dictator. The institutions of government fully held, the courts decided clearly, there was no armed uprising.
None of the things that need to happen to end democracy and make the USA a dictatorship are going to happen.
I’ll distill it for you. He’s a single issue voter, he’ll get a tax cut, woman, and Trump and his goons won’t be going after guys that look like him. Not at first, anyway.No one uses more words to say virtually nothing than you.
I get that and I have tried for eight years to give them the benefit of the doubt. I'm done. At this point, every person supporting Trump is a liar. They minimize and/or dismiss everything he says or does. Jan 6 should have been the death knell for this f'n clown but not only is he a serious contender for the presidency, he has the absolute, unflinching support of the Republican party...NO MATTER WHAT HE SAYS.In principle, I agree with you. You’re preaching to the choir.
I still don’t see the benefit of ostracizing people who are decent and honest just because they think differently.
I hate Trump and the people who lie for him and intentionally enable him. I will even go as far as to say if Trump or any of his dirtbag sycophants had karma finally catch up to them in the form of an untimely bullet I wouldn’t shed a tear. But demeaning decent people with a different outlook I will not do.
He doesn'tI have no problem with redoing the Constitution...I have a problem putting an individual ABOVE the Constitution. You don't seem to understand the difference
1 or 2. Hopefully he gets rid of at least 50% of left leaning gov’t workers.
Trump will have another successful term. Inflation will drop. Jobs will be plentiful. Peace will be achieved around the world.
The makeup of congress will determine how successful he is.
More muscular than trying to install governments in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Somalia, and Afghanistan?
What does that look like?
Has the neocon 'risk propensity' really worked out all that well?
What do you think would have happened if Pence didn't make a stand?
Afghanistan - failureTry? The party of peace did install a government in Iraq right after overthrowing that nation's ruler.
Afghanistan - failure
Iraq - success*
Libya - failure
Somalia - failure
Syria - failure
Yemen - failure
* success in this case means a country now filled with Iranian backed militias, but I don't think broadening Iran's influence was actually the neocons' goal. The geopolitical result is that we spent a trillion bucks and got hundreds of thousands of people killed to make oil cheaper for China.
I think a 17% (qualified) success rate is pretty low, and I'm wondering how the foreign policy gets 'more muscular' than that, but less Boltonesque.
Me either. That's why I can't support whichever candidate the neocons have lined up behind.I don't view Iraq as a success.
Again, Trump is their true beacon of truth. He's right about EVERYTHING.@RagnarLothbrok this is exactly the kind of "maggot adjacent" rationalization I was referring to. You see shit like this:
"But I'm frankly disturbed at just how long and how much she went into public hiding."
...when she has scheduled multiple interviews including 60 Minutes (that Trump pulled out of) and Fox (upcoming) not to mention accepting multiple debate opportunities that Trump refuses. It's simply a lie to push a false narrative. Her commercials are "stagecraft? I don't even know what that's supposed to mean. ALL political commercials are stagecraft...every single one. Show me a single Trump ad that isn't "stagecraft". Good grief, that's dumb.
That he actually says the R's are less in lock-step than the Dems is absolutely f'n ludicrous. That Republicans who actually worked with Trump are endorsing Harris left and right is simply an indication of how dangerous they think Trump is...but not Aardvark. Trump's JC chairman says he's "fascist to the core" so Aardvark must think Milley is stupid and hysterical and - shoot - we ain't got nothing to worry about. Trump is telling us EXACTLY who and what he is, he's advocating for using US troops against American citizens, and Aardvark's response is "he didn't say that but if he said it he didn't mean it and if he meant it you missed the context and if you got the context...well...he can't actually do it". His claims that he won't vote for Trump are, let's say, highly suspect.
This definitely gave me pause on giving others the benefit of the doubt. There are many times where there is wiggle room to interpret something Trump said in a far less sinister light.Ask them if threatening to unleash the US military on American citizens who disagree with him is just too radical for them to vote for him. Now he has absolutely said he approves of that...
In addition to sending his mob to the Capitol on January 6th for the purpose of interfering with the Congressional process of certifying Biden's states-won electors, Trump also attempted to replace certified Biden electors in seven states with fake electors who illegally certified him. Had this scheme succeeded 13.4 million Biden voters in those seven states would have been disenfranchised. Trump has been indicted on felony charges for his role in attempting to overturn the election. His role and the subsequent felony charges should forever disqualify him from holding public office.