Good News Trump haters...

[BlackNGoldBleeder]

The same guy who's accurately predicted every presidential winner since 1984, including Trump in 2016, says Biden will win this year.

So, there's that.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/bid...rian-who-predicted-every-race-since-1984.html

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

Meh he does use some meaningful measures but 2 of his questions ask about if the incumbent or the challenger is charismatic. And that's kind of an ill defined term. Some people might say a person has a lot of charisma while others would disagree.

All in all I would say polls are the best predictor we have. And when you get right down to it the polls can often only tell you when one side is clearly winning, many of our elections are close races and the polls really can't answer how those will turnout.

Also he mentions "voters don't fall for this" but he doesn't take into account the 2 elections since 1984 in which the winner did not win the popular vote.

 

[BlackNGoldBleeder]

Meh he does use some meaningful measures but 2 of his questions ask about if the incumbent or the challenger is charismatic. And that's kind of an ill defined term. Some people might say a person has a lot of charisma while others would disagree.

All in all I would say polls are the best predictor we have. And when you get right down to it the polls can often only tell you when one side is clearly winning, many of our elections are close races and the polls really can't answer how those will turnout.

Also he mentions "voters don't fall for this" but he doesn't take into account the 2 elections since 1984 in which the winner did not win the popular vote.

None of it is an exact science.

It's interesting, though.

 

[Nipigu]

He really went out on a limb here.

 

[BlackNGoldBleeder]

He really went out on a limb here.

He did in 2016 when he picked Trump.

I believe he also accurately predicted Trump's impeachment.

 

[Chishawk1425]

He did in 2016 when he picked Trump.

I believe he also accurately predicted Trump's impeachment.

Until the GOP Senate failed to do their constitutional duty. Fire them all.

 

[BlackNGoldBleeder]

Until the GOP Senate failed to do their constitutional duty. Fire them all.

The guy didn't predict a conviction, just an impeachment.

 

[Chishawk1425]

The guy didn't predict a conviction, just an impeachment.

I know just stating what happened after.