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Harvard, US Treasury Economists Forced to Admit Trump Tax Cuts Worked as Advertised!

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Jul 17, 2023
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Economists from Harvard, Princeton, the University of Chicago and the U.S. Treasury concluded in a recent report the Trump corporate tax reform worked as advertised.

The Wall Street Journal's James Freeman wrote in a summary of the 51-page National Bureau of Economic Research report that the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act created a surge in business investment, which greatly benefited the economy.

"The results of the Trump corporate tax reform were more business investment, more growth, more wages for workers—and little impact on government revenue as lower corporate tax rates were offset by an expanding economy. Game, set, match," Freeman argued.

The Trump tax cuts permanently reduced the corporate tax rate from 35 percent (the highest in the industrialized world) to 21 percent, which is slightly below average, the Tax Foundation reported.

The law also allowed for immediate expensing for shorter-term capital investments rather than requiring them to be written off over a five-year period.

In other words, the investments that companies made in equipment to grow their businesses could be written off against their income for that tax year.

The economists in the NBER report noted, "in our model, the dynamic labor and corporate tax revenue feedback in the first 10 years is less than 2% of baseline corporate revenue, as investment growth causes both higher labor tax revenues from wage growth and offsetting corporate revenue declines from more depreciation deductions."

Put in simpler terms, when companies reinvest and grow and become more efficient, salaries go up for their employees, who then pay more in taxes. The result: No loss in overall revenue to the Treasury when considered over a 10-year period.

William McBride and Alex Durante with the Tax Foundation wrote that the NBER study was "based on a large sample of 12,000 corporate tax returns covering several years prior to the enactment of the TCJA and two years after."

"The authors find that, on average, firms impacted by the policy changes increased domestic investment by about 20 percent in the subsequent two years relative to firms with no tax change," McBride and Durante explained.

Jason Furman -- former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Obama administration and current economics professor at Harvard \-- conceded that the TCJA worked as advertised. He did not co-write the NBER report, but was commenting about it.

"Taxes actually do matter ... Companies that saw larger reductions in tax rates from the TCJA also experienced larger increases in investment in the years that followed." Furman posted on social media.

Taxes actually do matter (Part I). Companies that saw larger reductions in tax rates from the TCJA also experienced larger increases in investment in the years that followed.

President Joe Biden unintentionally conceded last year that the Trump tax cuts were working when making the pitch for his fiscal year 2023 budget.

Keep in mind the Trump tax cuts are still largely in place, despite Biden's efforts to repeal them.

“[W]e have generated a GDP growth of 5.7 percent, the best economic growth we’ve seen in this country in over 40 years. This has led to a substantial increase in government revenues and dramatically improved our fiscal situation,” Biden said in March 2022.

The numbers speak for themselves: The federal treasury took in $4 trillion in fiscal year 2021 and $4.9 trillion in FY 2022.

Revenue dipped back down in FY 2023 to $4.44 trillion as the economy slowed under the weight of Biden's and the Democrats' inflationary spending policies, which have been dialed back again since Republicans took back control of the House.

By way of comparison, the federal government took in $3.3 trillion in revenues in 2017, prior to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act being implemented.

So federal revenue overall is up over $1 trillion per year.

The concept is simple, though most Democrats don't seem to get it: A growing economy generates more revenue for the Treasury.

The economy grew at a healthy 4.9 percent during the third quarter of this year.

Biden mentioned last year the economy experienced the best growth rate in four decades.

Forty years takes us back to Ronald Reagan’s first term, when, following across-the-board tax cuts like those passed under Trump, the economy took off, experiencing 4.58 percent growth in 1983 and 7.2 percent in 1984.

It should also be noted that federal tax revenues doubled during the 1980s, from approximately $500 billion to almost $1 trillion, as the economy grew by over $2.5 trillion, from $7.32 trillion to $9.94 trillion GDP.

It's nice to see that economists at Ivy League schools and the Treasury are honest enough to admit the Trump tax cuts worked.

 
Arthur Laffer was on with Larry Kudlow earlier today and proclaimed that from the perspective of economic policy, President Trump was the greatest president of the last 100 years!

He was positively giddy after the above report. The two of them were especially pleased with the effect on inflation-adjusted, after-tax income for those in the lower 1/3 or so of earners. They called this their greatest boost in real income ever.

.........................................................................

(They called Bidenomics "No Economics.")
 
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Economists from Harvard, Princeton, the University of Chicago and the U.S. Treasury concluded in a recent report the Trump corporate tax reform worked as advertised.

The Wall Street Journal's James Freeman wrote in a summary of the 51-page National Bureau of Economic Research report that the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act created a surge in business investment, which greatly benefited the economy.

"The results of the Trump corporate tax reform were more business investment, more growth, more wages for workers—and little impact on government revenue as lower corporate tax rates were offset by an expanding economy. Game, set, match," Freeman argued.

The Trump tax cuts permanently reduced the corporate tax rate from 35 percent (the highest in the industrialized world) to 21 percent, which is slightly below average, the Tax Foundation reported.

The law also allowed for immediate expensing for shorter-term capital investments rather than requiring them to be written off over a five-year period.

In other words, the investments that companies made in equipment to grow their businesses could be written off against their income for that tax year.

The economists in the NBER report noted, "in our model, the dynamic labor and corporate tax revenue feedback in the first 10 years is less than 2% of baseline corporate revenue, as investment growth causes both higher labor tax revenues from wage growth and offsetting corporate revenue declines from more depreciation deductions."

Put in simpler terms, when companies reinvest and grow and become more efficient, salaries go up for their employees, who then pay more in taxes. The result: No loss in overall revenue to the Treasury when considered over a 10-year period.

William McBride and Alex Durante with the Tax Foundation wrote that the NBER study was "based on a large sample of 12,000 corporate tax returns covering several years prior to the enactment of the TCJA and two years after."

"The authors find that, on average, firms impacted by the policy changes increased domestic investment by about 20 percent in the subsequent two years relative to firms with no tax change," McBride and Durante explained.

Jason Furman -- former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Obama administration and current economics professor at Harvard \-- conceded that the TCJA worked as advertised. He did not co-write the NBER report, but was commenting about it.

"Taxes actually do matter ... Companies that saw larger reductions in tax rates from the TCJA also experienced larger increases in investment in the years that followed." Furman posted on social media.

Taxes actually do matter (Part I). Companies that saw larger reductions in tax rates from the TCJA also experienced larger increases in investment in the years that followed.

President Joe Biden unintentionally conceded last year that the Trump tax cuts were working when making the pitch for his fiscal year 2023 budget.

Keep in mind the Trump tax cuts are still largely in place, despite Biden's efforts to repeal them.

“[W]e have generated a GDP growth of 5.7 percent, the best economic growth we’ve seen in this country in over 40 years. This has led to a substantial increase in government revenues and dramatically improved our fiscal situation,” Biden said in March 2022.

The numbers speak for themselves: The federal treasury took in $4 trillion in fiscal year 2021 and $4.9 trillion in FY 2022.

Revenue dipped back down in FY 2023 to $4.44 trillion as the economy slowed under the weight of Biden's and the Democrats' inflationary spending policies, which have been dialed back again since Republicans took back control of the House.

By way of comparison, the federal government took in $3.3 trillion in revenues in 2017, prior to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act being implemented.

So federal revenue overall is up over $1 trillion per year.

The concept is simple, though most Democrats don't seem to get it: A growing economy generates more revenue for the Treasury.

The economy grew at a healthy 4.9 percent during the third quarter of this year.

Biden mentioned last year the economy experienced the best growth rate in four decades.

Forty years takes us back to Ronald Reagan’s first term, when, following across-the-board tax cuts like those passed under Trump, the economy took off, experiencing 4.58 percent growth in 1983 and 7.2 percent in 1984.

It should also be noted that federal tax revenues doubled during the 1980s, from approximately $500 billion to almost $1 trillion, as the economy grew by over $2.5 trillion, from $7.32 trillion to $9.94 trillion GDP.

It's nice to see that economists at Ivy League schools and the Treasury are honest enough to admit the Trump tax cuts worked.

Seems like this is more of a WSJ Op Ed than anything from actual "researchers".
 
Looks like US GDP is doing far far better under "Bidenomics" than in the pre-Covid years following 2017...

 
They thought it might cause runaway inflation and boy did it.
The change to tax rates has resulted in higher tax collections.

Increasing tax collections does not create inflation. If you think it does please explain your theory.

The inflation is the consequence of spending beyond the increased tax collections. Spending is at levels last seen when the country mobilized in 1942 to fight World War 2.

Tax collections exceed spending levels at end of Clinton’s term, but the record spending has to be reigned in.
 
They thought it might cause runaway inflation and boy did it.
The Quantitative Easings that Obama did contributed more to Biden's inflation spike than anything Trump did. The extent to which he undercut the value of the dollar should be considered treasonous.
 
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Weird how "mathematical models" on something as complex as the global economy are now "recognized" by some folks....
 
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Weird that those tax cuts didn't do much for Main St Americans.

And upped the numbers of stock buybacks to inflate the taxable incomes of the elites through tax events and additional revenue to the Treasury.
Another positive effect that everyone forgets!

... along with the aforementioned bonuses that a lot of companies paid to employees!

Companies used the money that had been earmarked for taxes to increase the incomes of their employees and of their shareholders. This was a nice and unexpected bonus for the economy as well.

....................................

One other effect that no one talks about was the lack of labor strife ... Happy employees meant no one striking for higher wages and not having the President out making stupid proclamations about labor economics and how he was successfully micro-manageing the trek to higher wages and higher taxes for all.

What a bozo this Biden guy is!! I keep wondering why he feels compelled to show off his bozoness.

........................................................................................................................................................................................

Now if we could only get Republicans to actually run for reelection on this issue of economics, life would be good. I do not think many of them understand economics either
 
Another positive effect that everyone forgets!

... along with the aforementioned bonuses that a lot of companies paid to employees!

Companies used the money that had been earmarked for taxes to increase the incomes of their employees and of their shareholders. This was a nice and unexpected bonus for the economy as well.

....................................

One other effect that no one talks about was the lack of labor strife ... Happy employees meant no one striking for higher wages and not having the President out making stupid proclamations about labor economics and how he was successfully micro-manageing the trek to higher wages and higher taxes for all.

What a bozo this Biden guy is!! I keep wondering why he feels compelled to show off his bozoness.

........................................................................................................................................................................................

Now if we could only get Republicans to actually run for reelection on this issue of economics, life would be good. I do not think many of them understand economics either
Only for the wealthy. The tax breaks are the republicans version of stimulus and contributed greatly to the subsequent inflation. Between that and the foolish push to keep interest rates artificially low the impact of the economy downswing was greater than it should have been.

The only stimulus right wingers support is the stimulus they get that bypasses those who really need it.
 
Weird that those tax cuts didn't do much for Main St Americans.

And upped the numbers of stock buybacks to inflate the salaries of the elites...
As a result of the TCJA, high earners paid more taxes to the government, while everyone else paid less. They also paid a larger percentage of all taxes, while everyone else paid a smaller percentage.
 
The change to tax rates has resulted in higher tax collections.

Increasing tax collections does not create inflation. If you think it does please explain your theory.

The inflation is the consequence of spending beyond the increased tax collections. Spending is at levels last seen when the country mobilized in 1942 to fight World War 2.

Tax collections exceed spending levels at end of Clinton’s term, but the record spending has to be reigned in.
I believe that record spending by the government and the private sector at a time when we had post-Covid supply chain issues caused inflation.
 
NOPE

So here are the results of the Trump tax cuts:

--The income tax burden for high earners increased $16 billion to 40 percent of the total owed.

--The income tax burden for middle class earners decreased by $31 billion to 13 percent of the total owed.

--The income tax burden for low wage workers decreased by $4 billion to 1 percent of the total owed.

Doesn’t sound much like a tax cut for the wealthy.


So why does Biden keep saying what he says? To quote Ronald Reagan: “It isn’t so much that liberals are ignorant. It’s just that they know so many things that aren’t so.”
 
Another fun fact. According to one source, at the end of 2016 the Federal Debt to GDP ratio was 104.6%. At the end of 2020 it was 126.0%. At the end of Q2 in 2023 it was 119.5%. Yeah, I know Covid was in there.

At the beginning of 2000 it was 58.3%

Just sayin' while we celebrate good economic news the government just keeps spending more than they take in.

 
Weird that those tax cuts didn't do much for Main St Americans.

And upped the numbers of stock buybacks to inflate the salaries of the elites...
They did for me, but we all know you are well below average.
 
Another fun fact. According to one source, at the end of 2016 the Federal Debt to GDP ratio was 104.6%. At the end of 2020 it was 126.0%. At the end of Q2 in 2023 it was 119.5%.

No shit; spending to keep the economy from collapsing during a global pandemic increase deficits...

Who knew?
 
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Bloomberg lied then.

Economists at Ivy League schools and the Treasury are honest enough to admit the Trump tax cuts worked.

Bloomberg is telling you something different than what you want to hear.

High earning INDIVIDUALS got massive tax breaks. This is unrelated to your "economists" talking about corporate rates (and that analysis is based on lots of 'models', that I was told cannot project the future well)
 
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Bloomberg is telling you something different than what you want to hear.

High earning INDIVIDUALS got massive tax breaks. This is unrelated to your "economists" talking about corporate rates (and that analysis is based on lots of 'models', that I was told cannot project the future well)
Hey.

Hey, Joe.

What's a "woman?"
 
Bloomberg is telling you something different than what you want to hear.

High earning INDIVIDUALS got massive tax breaks. This is unrelated to your "economists" talking about corporate rates (and that analysis is based on lots of 'models', that I was told cannot project the future well)
So here are the results of the Trump tax cuts:

--The income tax burden for high earners increased $16 billion to 40 percent of the total owed.

--The income tax burden for middle class earners decreased by $31 billion to 13 percent of the total owed.

--The income tax burden for low wage workers decreased by $4 billion to 1 percent of the total owed.

Doesn’t sound much like a tax cut for the wealthy.
 
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