Hawkeye Women’s BBall Season 2021-2022

[UptownHawk]

That's not particularly surprising. Our schedule before the shutdown was incredibly weak. Hopefully it improves as our strength of schedule does.

This is the perfect illustration of the flaws in the NET rankings. Since it takes into account the margin of victory, the formula will highly reward a blowout win, especially on the road against a not rock bottom team. So after last night, we jumped from NET #30 all the way up to #16. This also explains why a team like Nebraska is still so high, since they had so many blowout victories earlier in the season.

Like it or it not, the NET is largely about winning by big margins against decent teams on the road. Ohio State "only" beat Maryland (NET #21) by 6 points at home. Let's look at the three teams who jumped over them:
--Iowa beat #93 Minnesota 105-49 on the road, so we moved from #30 up to #16.
--Arkansas beat #63 Alabama 99-71 on the road, so they moved up from #34 to #28.
--Ole Miss beat #41 Texas A&M 80-63 on the road, so they moved up from #32 to #27.

Good point. On Wednesday both Creighton and Florida Gulf Coast saw big jumps in their NET. Creighton won by 51 on the road and FGC by 37 on the road.

 

[Gabe Sifuentes]

Iowa/Illinois official now. 5 PM Cental/6 Eastern on Sunday. Game will be on BTN.

 

[AMAYS]

Minnesota shouldn't be a problem. They are bad

A spot on prediction.

 

[KyleHuesmann]

I’d expect Iowa Indiana to fit in on the 11th or 12th of February.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

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I’d expect Iowa Indiana to fit in on the 11th or 12th of February.

That three game stretch of vs. Indiana, vs. Maryland, and at Indiana will go a long way in determining where Iowa finishes in conference.

It's also a big opportunity for Iowa. Indiana likely won't have Holmes back for either game. Maryland certainly isn't playing like it was last year. Each of those games is winnable, though we'll need to see close to Iowa's best to pull any of them out.

 

[Legend12]

Good point. On Wednesday both Creighton and Florida Gulf Coast saw big jumps in their NET. Creighton won by 51 on the road and FGC by 37 on the road.

NET rankings cap margin of victory at 10 points….so doesn’t matter if you win by 10 or 50, it counts the same.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

I see that we just fell to 23 in the latest ranking (from 16). I don't think NET is completely useless, but I really don't see how it's much better than RPI or any other metric that has been criticized previously. There are plenty of strange outliers that don't seem to make much sense.

 

[undersized_post]

I see that we just fell to 23 in the latest ranking (from 16). I don't think NET is completely useless, but I really don't see how it's much better than RPI or any other metric that has been criticized previously. There are plenty of strange outliers that don't seem to make much sense.

Yeah, as with RPI, playing a team as bad as Illinois can only hurt your resume, even if it's a blowout win. Not that we can avoid them since they are in the conference.

NET rankings cap margin of victory at 10 points….so doesn’t matter if you win by 10 or 50, it counts the same.

But it indirectly does, because it accounts for offensive and defensive efficiency, both of which are going to be very favorable in a blowout win. This is why North Carolina and Nebraska are still so high.

 

[undersized_post]

Illinois is now on COVID pause, again. Really hope our team still has immunity because they all would have just come in contact.

 

[KyleHuesmann]

The week ahead for Iowa Women's Hoops

Lisa Bluder’s squad is riding a six-game win streak, where they are scoring over 90+ points per game and getting

iowa.rivals.com

 

[BGHAWK]

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I’d expect Iowa Indiana to fit in on the 11th or 12th of February.

Hawkeye Sports has Minnesota on the 9th, what happened to that game?

 

[mphawk]

Hawkeye Sports has Minnesota on the 9th, what happened to that game?

That was Illinois playing Indiana on the 9th. Iowa is still scheduled to play Minnesota here on the 9th.
That game was previously supposed to be on the 10th, but it was moved up a day to accommodate Iowa playing a makeup game with Illinois on the 12th. However, that already happened last Sunday, so the 12th is now an open date for us. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets filled with another team though. Hard to keep up with it all. Who's on first?

 

[BGHAWK]

That was Illinois playing Indiana on the 9th. Iowa is still scheduled to play Minnesota here on the 9th.
That game was previously supposed to be on the 10th, but it was moved up a day to accommodate Iowa playing a makeup game with Illinois on the 12th. However, that already happened last Sunday, so the 12th is now an open date for us. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets filled with another team though. Hard to keep up with it all. Who's on first?

Thanks, and before I got to the end of your response, the thought "who's on first?" crossed my mind. I'll just have to take it one day at a time, tonight @ Northwestern.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

I think it's worth updating my conference prediction for Iowa already given recent developments. Currently we are 8-1 in conference with 8 (or 9) games remaining. Here's how I see them breaking down:

Should win games: at Wisconsin, vs. Minnesota, at Rutgers. These are 3 of the 4 worst teams in the conference right now. We should absolutely beat each of them. And the good news is, if we do beat each of them, we're probably locked into the NCAA Tournament. If I'm right about these, that gets us to 11 wins.

Probable Loses: at Michigan. Never say never, but Michigan is really good this year, and I don't have much confidence we beat them at their place. This would put us at 2 conference losses. One interesting note: if Iowa and Michigan take care of business early next week, this game next Sunday would be for the outright conference lead.

Swing Games: at Indiana, vs. Indiana, vs. Maryland, vs. Ohio State, vs. Michigan.

I don't know what to do with Indiana. When healthy, they looked like the best team in the conference. But the Hoosiers aren't healthy and depth has been a concern all year for them. Plus they're coming off a Covid pause. We also don't know if Iowa will get both games against Indiana in this year. I don't think they have room to make up every postponed game.

I still don't feel good about the Maryland game, but I think that feeling just carries over from last year. Maryland hasn't been the same team this year. Until they have better showings, it's a winnable game. The Ohio State game could go either way. I'm scared of their shooting, but we should have a post advantage. This one might well come down to how well Iowa shoots the three. If Indiana's season goes downhill at all, Michigan at home is our best chance for a marquee victory. We'll probably still be underdogs in the game, though.

Prediction: I'll go with a 2-3 record in the swing games, making my conference prediction 13-5 now. I wouldn't be totally shocked if we go anywhere between 4-1 and 1-4 in the swing games. 3 conference losses might well be good enough to tie for the regular season championship.

 

[undersized_post]

I agree that Michigan is playing the best team ball to this point, and while it might be crazy of me to think this, I feel like we match up better with them than with some of the "lesser" teams. What gives us the most trouble are the quick or crafty guards who can single handedly breakdown our defense -- Burton, Sheldon, Owusu, etc. Michigan's backcourt is nicely balanced but they don't necessarily have that one elite guard who we won't be able to contain. It will be interesting because in many ways they run a very similar offense to our Elite 8 team from a few seasons ago. Senior Emily Kiser has come on strong in her last year there, a lot like Hannah Stewart did for us. Naz is obviously Megan in this analogy.

 

[huntermmm]

So any word on if the Indiana game is going to be rescheduled or not? It’s been a while

 

[mphawk]

So any word on if the Indiana game is going to be rescheduled or not? It’s been a while

My total guess is it will be scheduled for Saturday, February 12th here. That is the only open date left that both Iowa and Indiana have. Iowa has games on the 9th and 14th, Indiana on the 10th and 14th. Iowa's makeup date with Illinois was supposed to be the 12th, but that already happened a few weeks ago.

Iowa does have an open date for February 17th, but who knows what other shuffling will need to be done.

 

[UptownHawk]

I think it's worth updating my conference prediction for Iowa already given recent developments. Currently we are 8-1 in conference with 8 (or 9) games remaining. Here's how I see them breaking down:

Should win games: at Wisconsin, vs. Minnesota, at Rutgers. These are 3 of the 4 worst teams in the conference right now. We should absolutely beat each of them. And the good news is, if we do beat each of them, we're probably locked into the NCAA Tournament. If I'm right about these, that gets us to 11 wins.

Probable Loses: at Michigan. Never say never, but Michigan is really good this year, and I don't have much confidence we beat them at their place. This would put us at 2 conference losses. One interesting note: if Iowa and Michigan take care of business early next week, this game next Sunday would be for the outright conference lead.

Swing Games: at Indiana, vs. Indiana, vs. Maryland, vs. Ohio State, vs. Michigan.

I don't know what to do with Indiana. When healthy, they looked like the best team in the conference. But the Hoosiers aren't healthy and depth has been a concern all year for them. Plus they're coming off a Covid pause. We also don't know if Iowa will get both games against Indiana in this year. I don't think they have room to make up every postponed game.

I still don't feel good about the Maryland game, but I think that feeling just carries over from last year. Maryland hasn't been the same team this year. Until they have better showings, it's a winnable game. The Ohio State game could go either way. I'm scared of their shooting, but we should have a post advantage. This one might well come down to how well Iowa shoots the three. If Indiana's season goes downhill at all, Michigan at home is our best chance for a marquee victory. We'll probably still be underdogs in the game, though.

Prediction: I'll go with a 2-3 record in the swing games, making my conference prediction 13-5 now. I wouldn't be totally shocked if we go anywhere between 4-1 and 1-4 in the swing games. 3 conference losses might well be good enough to tie for the regular season

Minnesota point guard Jasmine Powell leaving the team and entering the transfer portal. Seems to be some disarray in Minnesota.

 

[KyleHuesmann]

My total guess is it will be scheduled for Saturday, February 12th here. That is the only open date left that both Iowa and Indiana have. Iowa has games on the 9th and 14th, Indiana on the 10th and 14th. Iowa's makeup date with Illinois was supposed to be the 12th, but that already happened a few weeks ago.

Iowa does have an open date for February 17th, but who knows what other shuffling will need to be done.

I’m thinking the 12th as well, however Indiana still has to reschedule Michigan St, Illinois and Rutgers.

 

[mphawk]

I’m thinking the 12th as well, however Indiana still has to reschedule Michigan St, Illinois and Rutgers.

You are right. By the time we get to March, there may such a disparity in number of games played that the standings will be meaningless.

 

[wneff]

I’m thinking the 12th as well, however Indiana still has to reschedule Michigan St, Illinois and Rutgers.

Last time I looked, Michigan State also has the 12th open, and that game would be in Bloomington. If IU comes to Iowa City for the 12th, they would be playing three consecutive road games, not to mention a much tougher game.
If the Hoosiers have a say in it, I’m guessing they’re saying Sparty.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

I'm worried the conference will prefer for Indiana to makeup games against teams it hasn't played instead of making up a second game against Iowa. If we don't get the second game with Indiana, hopefully the conference at least switches the Feb. 20 game to at Iowa. It would be wrong for Indiana to benefit from its own Covid pause at Iowa's expense.

 

[Gabe Sifuentes]

Minnesota point guard Jasmine Powell leaving the team and entering the transfer portal. Seems to be some disarray in Minnesota.

Paging Coach Bluder. If she's willing to take a backup role it would be a great get. And it would be an opportunity for Powell to contribute to a team that could make a deep run. Powell could probably get minutes at the 1-3 at Iowa.

I know Bluder is not a fan of the portal, but guard depth is a major concern for the team, especially at PG.

On a side note Whalen needs to go. It doesn't matter how good of a recruiting class she can land as she has been a complete disaster as a coach.

 

[huntermmm]

Paging Coach Bluder. If she's willing to take a backup role it would be a great get. And it would be an opportunity for Powell to contribute to a team that could make a deep run. Powell could probably get minutes at the 1-3 at Iowa.

I know Bluder is not a fan of the portal, but guard depth is a major concern for the team, especially at PG.

On a side note Whalen needs to go. It doesn't matter how good of a recruiting class she can land as she has been a complete disaster as a coach.

As we all know Bluder isn’t a fan of the portal and I highly doubt she’ll grab someone like Powell mid-season. If she’s gonna go to the portal, it’ll be at end of the season.
I’m curious to see how long Whalen stays as a coach and how long those incoming recruits stay

 

[UpstreamHawkeye]

As we all know Bluder isn’t a fan of the portal and I highly doubt she’ll grab someone like Powell mid-season. If she’s gonna go to the portal, it’ll be at end of the season.
I’m curious to see how long Whalen stays as a coach and how long those incoming recruits stay

A lot of Minnesota fans were saying Powell didn't play team ball. That won't sit well with Coach Bluder.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

Minnesota really is in a tough spot. If they fire Whelan, they likely lose some or all of the big recruiting class. They might also lose fan support for firing a program legend. And the program isn't exactly in a great spot right now, so would they have many quality replacement options?

On the other hand, Whalen's teams have gotten worse every year. There's no sign that she's improving as a coach. It's reasonable to believe that even the good recruiting class will underachieve with her in charge. It might well be time to let her go, take the possible hit in losing the big recruiting class, and start rebuilding before the program hits rock bottom.

 

[fish1hawk]

Paging Coach Bluder. If she's willing to take a backup role it would be a great get. And it would be an opportunity for Powell to contribute to a team that could make a deep run. Powell could probably get minutes at the 1-3 at Iowa.

I know Bluder is not a fan of the portal, but guard depth is a major concern for the team, especially at PG.

On a side note Whalen needs to go. It doesn't matter how good of a recruiting class she can land as she has been a complete disaster as a coach.

As a loyal Hawk shh, that recruiting class calls for a live time contract

 

[Gabe Sifuentes]

A lot of Minnesota fans were saying Powell didn't play team ball. That won't sit well with Coach Bluder.

Fans tend to make excuses for player transfers. Watching Powell play, she was trying to put the team on her back at times. Whalen has had several issues with players leaving which leads me to suspect there is something else going on.

 

[BGHAWK]

Makes no difference to me, but if Minnesota wants a change, and if I was a Minnesota fan, I would want Whalen to do the right thing for the University and her legacy and leave on her own terms at least by the end of the season.

 

[undersized_post]

Re: Jasmine Powell. For whatever reason Whalen didn't start her in the second half of the Minn/Iowa game last week. She didn't come back in until the 4:54 mark of the 3Q, meaning she was off the floor during most of our impressive scoring run. I don't remember the first half well enough to know if Powell was doing something that Whalen didn't like. But clearly, the lineup without her wasn't a good idea haha.

 

[creslin_hawk]

We beat Michigan last year, so if Warnock is healthy there's a chance of splitting games. Last year I though Holmes was the the difference in the Indiana game, if shes out things could get interesting. Both Ohio state games were close last year and they lost Dorka to uconn, she killed us in both games. So these are all tough, but its seems like if Iowa is playing well they have a chance at all of them.

 

[KyleHuesmann]

Looking at what Iowa needs to lock up an at-large bid.

Pencil in W’s: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Rutgers

I think a win tomorrow vs Ohio State goes a long way in locking things up. That would give them 18-9 at the very worst. I don’t think they go 0-5 vs Michigan/Indiana/Maryland anyway.

 

[Gabe Sifuentes]

Re: Jasmine Powell. For whatever reason Whalen didn't start her in the second half of the Minn/Iowa game last week. She didn't come back in until the 4:54 mark of the 3Q, meaning she was off the floor during most of our impressive scoring run. I don't remember the first half well enough to know if Powell was doing something that Whalen didn't like. But clearly, the lineup without her wasn't a good idea haha.

Rewatched the 1st half. Nothing really stood out. She had a bad shooting night and seemed a step slow. She did have a sleeve on her leg so wonder if perhaps an injury is bugging her. But she was directing the offense and defense and doing what you would expect a PG to do.

Not sure why Powell wasn't playing or decided to transfer but we know Whalen has had issues in the past managing her players.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

Looking at what Iowa needs to lock up an at-large bid.

Pencil in W’s: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Rutgers

I think a win tomorrow vs Ohio State goes a long way in locking things up. That would give them 18-9 at the very worst. I don’t think they go 0-5 vs Michigan/Indiana/Maryland anyway.

Personally I think wins against Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Rutgers already locks into an at-large bid. We already have 3 wins over projected tournament teams. More if Purdue or UNI get in. 10 losses in that scenario would be a lot, but 8 or 9 of the 10 would be to tournament teams.

Going back to the 2019 tournament, multiple at-large teams had 12 losses. North Carolina got in at 18-14. Those teams played a few more games than Iowa will, but my overall point remains that 10 or 11 seeds don't have good resumes.

 

[Gabe Sifuentes]

Personally I think wins against Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Rutgers already locks into an at-large bid. We already have 3 wins over projected tournament teams. More if Purdue or UNI get in. 10 losses in that scenario would be a lot, but 8 or 9 of the 10 would be to tournament teams.

Going back to the 2019 tournament, multiple at-large teams had 12 losses. North Carolina got in at 18-14. Those teams played a few more games than Iowa will, but my overall point remains that 10 or 11 seeds don't have good resumes.

If we beat only those teams we'd be 16-9. We would probably have to win at least 1 in the BTT to be a lock. But with 17 wins only, I think we'd be looking at an 8-9 seed. We have 3 good wins with UCF and 2 over Nebraska. Southern and UNI still have outside shots at making the tournament if they win their respective conferences and that could boost our resume. I think if we can win 1 against OSU Michigan or Indiana that would also make us a lock.

If Purdue can win out over PSU, Wisconsin and Rutgers and split with NW, they will also likely be a tournament team. MSU probably needs at least one upset if not two to make the tourney based on their schedule.

Iowa has a strong NET in their favor but once we play UW and Rutgers, our NET will take a major hit. If we can get to 20 wins, we're likely a 5 seed in the tourney. It would be nice to get an upset or two and have a shot at a 4 seed.

The good thing is that there are a lot of good teams left to play but no one looks unstoppable. MIchigan is the toughest team we play, but we match up well. If Monika stays out of foul trouble we'll have a good chance to at least split with them.

 

[UptownHawk]

If we are on the bubble for some reason I think we get leeway having Clark on the roster. NCAA is going to want her in the tournament. I think three wins verses MN, Rutgers and Wisconsin gets us in. Even losing the remaining games non are bad losses but would be nice to put a run together and get a 4/5 seed.

 

[cyberhawk]

I believe Iowa will be at least a 4-seed. At this point of the season I know that is optimistic, but it is also realistic. I would rather be that than be pessimistic.

 

[HawkeyeBill]

Is Logan Cook injured? She hasnt played for long time.

 

[jockos]

Is Logan Cook injured? She hasnt played for long time.

Yes. They hope she is ready for the BTT.

 

[Gabe Sifuentes]

I believe Iowa will be at least a 4-seed. At this point of the season I know that is optimistic, but it is also realistic. I would rather be that than be pessimistic.

She's been in a boot for several weeks. Bluder did not disclose the injury but made it sound like she'd be back before the end of the regular season. Perhaps mid-February. I don't expect her to see a ton of minutes with Ediger starting to come on and Taiwo's recent success. Maybe five minutes a game tops to spell Monika and McKenna. She's a strong rebounder but the team has improved in her absence in that area.