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HOLY S%$T!! Harris 47 Trump 44, Final Selzer IOWA POLL!

I'm still, sadly, confident Trump wins Iowa.

However, the schadenfreude of watching the MAGA nuts like @Phenomenally Frantastic @IAFB2021Champs and @NorthernHawkeye reacting to this poll is absolutely glorious to see.
Comedy Central GIF by Another Period

Good morning @mattymoknows .

Schadenfreude!
 
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You were on my very short ignore list but since I can see you've answered this by another posters reply, I took you off ignore for now.

So it's a bet? $200 dollars to Stead and 1 month of posting privileges as I understand the terms. This is a moneyline bet.

If you want the suggested 2 points, we are now betting with a spread and then the bet is 2 weeks of posting privileges lost for me if I lose, and 2 months for you.
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See you in a few weeks. Props for paying up.
 
It might just be the simple answer...those polled intentionally lied about their preferences.
 
I’m fine, what’s going to be real fun, is the same people worshipping these grifting oligarchs fail to realize they will be the ones that suffer the most.
Nope - We are however very fortunate and thankful that Kamala Harris and her ilk were not elected to the Presidency of the United States. Marxism was avoided, we can work on stopping the onslaught of illegals crossing the border 24/7. Our wives, mothers and children will be safer under a republican government, and we can look forward to Making America Great Again.
 
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Yeah man. I think ill take you off ignore. That's a solid for actually following through. Good on ya. Many on here would have made excuses why they didnt actually bet. Honorable.

I know you dont care what I think but I'm going to do the honorable thing as well and recognize the fact you did the right thing even though I wasnt going to make a big deal of it. Cheers.
 
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Could be that simple. But she was off 17 points. Thats absolutely brutal if you are a professional pollster . Why would anyone trust what she says ever again
Correct. I hope she is near retirement age, because no one will, nor should they, pay any attention to one of her polls again. It was so far off AND immediately featured on "news" shows across the country just hours before election day that one has to wonder if it was a set up.

It would be almost impossible to be that far off if it was a legit poll with sound technique, etc.
 
Had to get back in here because this was just egregious. She was either trying to manipulate people or she got paid to lie. There is no in between.

Secondly, there are people on here that believed it and most things the media puts out. Eventually I would think people would start to question the MSM after they have been lied to over and over.
 
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Had to get back in here because this was just egregious. She was either trying to manipulate people or she got paid to lie. There is no in between.

Secondly, there are people on here that believed it and most things the media puts out. Eventually I would think people would start to question the MSM after they have been lied to over and over.
I am reminded of the saying that, "It is easier to fool someone than it is to convince them that they have been fooled.".
 
So the one poll had 47-44 Harris in Iowa , but she lost by 13

Did they only ask 100 people? Because that is a rather large margin of error
Probably just saw the poll here and thought it was representative of the state.
 
Nope - We are however very fortunate and thankful that Kamala Harris and her ilk were not elected to the Presidency of the United States. Marxism was avoided, we can work on stopping the onslaught of illegals crossing the border 24/7. Our wives, mothers and children will be safer under a republican government, and we can look forward to Making America Great Again.
Remind me again how many Americans died under Trump during covid. How many more people are going to die when you have conspiracy theorists running health care.
 
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So the one poll had 47-44 Harris in Iowa , but she lost by 13

Did they only ask 100 people? Because that is a rather large margin of error
The new generation of workers. Walk outside office in metro area and ask a few people, or ask friends, or make the shit up. Important thing is to get it done super fast and be done for the day.
 
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Could be that simple. But she was off 17 points. Thats absolutely brutal if you are a professional pollster . Why would anyone trust what she says ever again
As long as she's done this, it's hard to imagine she changed her approach. So the simple answer is once she identified herself...absolutely people lied.
 
Rough night for Ann Selzer.
As long as she's done this, it's hard to imagine she changed her approach. So the simple answer is once she identified herself...absolutely people lied.
That's a very good guess. But, she should have sniffed this out. No airline pilot would take off if his/her instruments were indicating absurd numbers like this. I would have done it again or tossed it. She had to know it was way wrong.
 
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Someone’s moving on… 😗
Lol amazing. Wonder how much money she took to release that nonsense. This may be one of the greatest off topic threads of all time btw. So many receipts 😂😂
 
Someone’s moving on… 😗
Probably a good idea to move on. Too bad since had good polls in the past. If she knew that was her last poll, makes sense on the poor poll. Still have a hard time understanding how someone that does polls could release something so far out of reality. Would think there would be an analysis of the poll results and not release it
 
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Probably a good idea to move on. Too bad since had good polls in the past. If she knew that was her last poll, makes sense on the poor poll. Still have a hard time understanding how someone that does polls could release something so far out of reality. Would think there would be an analysis of the poll results and not release it
You're only off by 16 points if you pulled the numbers out of your ass or were paid to be wrong. I'd imagine it's probably the latter and part of the reason the Harris campaign is reportedly 10s of millions in debt and still asking for money.
 
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There are many cases of pollsters who became regarded as "sages" after they accurately predicted something unexpected, only to lose this status within a couple of cycles: John Zogby, Nate Silver, and Ann Selzer.
 
There are many cases of pollsters who became regarded as "sages" after they accurately predicted something unexpected, only to lose this status within a couple of cycles: John Zogby, Nate Silver, and Ann Selzer.
Nate silver is funny bc his own data said trump would win for a while but he let his personal preferences impact his analysis/final prediction.
 
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