Ann Selzer still searching for answers after final Iowa Poll badly missed its mark
- Thread starter NorthernHawkeye
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A long history of pretty accurate polling results, has a bad one so of course she’s on the take.
The logic is undeniable.
When all you have is a tinfoil hat, everything looks like a conspiracy.
And again, that comes after a long history of accurate results that favored both parties at different times.
Why was she on the take this time but not the others.
She released a bad poll that was way off. End of story.
Why does it even matter?
Maybe her initial poll was correct and a lot of republicans saw that they might lose the state so they decided to go out and vote. She might have done the state a solid and helped keep it a red state.
Or maybe, just maybe, people make up shit on polls because they want to fvck with something. I know I personally made up shit on polls that I was sent.
So many people need to be the first to report this or that, so I enjoy fvcking with them. I can’t imagine how much I’d mess with sports reporters if I was a famous athlete going through free agency.
Maybe her initial poll was correct and a lot of republicans saw that they might lose the state so they decided to go out and vote. She might have done the state a solid and helped keep it a red state.
Or maybe, just maybe, people make up shit on polls because they want to fvck with something. I know I personally made up shit on polls that I was sent.
So many people need to be the first to report this or that, so I enjoy fvcking with them. I can’t imagine how much I’d mess with sports reporters if I was a famous athlete going through free agency.
With a simple answer - she’s not and she wasn’t.
And obviously pollsters who give a damn they try to account for people like you 🤪
Obviously something went very wrong this time.
I don't believe she was paid off to show those results. However, I do question how she could have released those results with that conclusion and not have second guessed their validity. This I see as the far bigger problem. There is a lack of awareness on both sides, that in their lives they have surrounded themselves with people with the same disposition politically. They see all these people agreeing with them and rarely question anything. If she went outside of her sphere in Iowa she would have understood that her polling was off and would not have published it. In my job I deal with people on both sides of the political spectrum, there was no way Trump wasn't winning Iowa. I live in Waterloo, which is probably as liberal as any city in Iowa besides Iowa City and just talking to people daily I knew Trump would carry Iowa easily.
I believe in the bubble that she lives in, she thought her polling was accurate. People today have less contact in their daily lives. We text, email, have groceries dropped at our door and Amazon ships everything else. The websites we visit typically support our worldview. If the only contact we have is with similar people we really have no outside perspective of what other people our thinking. Unfortunately, I think this problem is growing in this country/world. I believe the problem is especially pervasive in the community that Ann probably lives in. If I had to guess she surrounds herself with people that belong in academia and the press. Unfortunately people in those areas are very skewed to the left. The problem was she didn't question her results, she didn't test them in some way. She obviously failed, I don't know what she put as the deviance in her polling data but I am sure it wasn't that large. This is a problem in many fields where we allow our personal biases to influence the data we collect and not question the validity of that data because it agrees with our perspective of how we feel the outcome should be. In the last few years I have increasingly seen this phrase science deniers, as if questioning something is wrong. We should question everything both on the right and the left. We shouldn't just deny something because it is proposed by somebody that has opposing views than us. In my field, I am a CPA, we are taught to have skepticism, to question, to test if the results match what we see.
I am a conservative, not a Trump republican though I did vote for him. I consider my self more of a states rights guy that believes that the Federal government was created with limited powers and everything else should be decided by the individual states. I believe that the Supreme Court ruled correctly in overturning Roe vs. Wade, not because I am opposed to abortion, I am, but because it should be up to the individual states to decide. I believe that the Federal government has usurped power from the individual states and the individual states were only to willing to cede that power with their hands out for federal funds. Anyway, I am rambling politically now which I rarely do. I understand that many will disregard whatever I say because I am conservative and that is fine. I just wanted to give my perspective on Ann Selzer and my belief that it will become an increasingly larger problem as we become self isolated in our bubbles/spheres of contact with people that only agree with our perspective. Oh, and I increasingly believe that there is only one way to solve the financial crises that is looming because of our irresponsible political system that has spent more than they take in, we must tax more and cut spending. A government should run on a balanced budget just like any business and household. You can not spend more than you take in and if you do there will be future consequences.
Anyway, if you read all of this you more power to you. Lets all get back to the true need of the off topic forum, the picture posts of nude and scantily clad women. We can all or most of us come to agreement on that.
I believe in the bubble that she lives in, she thought her polling was accurate. People today have less contact in their daily lives. We text, email, have groceries dropped at our door and Amazon ships everything else. The websites we visit typically support our worldview. If the only contact we have is with similar people we really have no outside perspective of what other people our thinking. Unfortunately, I think this problem is growing in this country/world. I believe the problem is especially pervasive in the community that Ann probably lives in. If I had to guess she surrounds herself with people that belong in academia and the press. Unfortunately people in those areas are very skewed to the left. The problem was she didn't question her results, she didn't test them in some way. She obviously failed, I don't know what she put as the deviance in her polling data but I am sure it wasn't that large. This is a problem in many fields where we allow our personal biases to influence the data we collect and not question the validity of that data because it agrees with our perspective of how we feel the outcome should be. In the last few years I have increasingly seen this phrase science deniers, as if questioning something is wrong. We should question everything both on the right and the left. We shouldn't just deny something because it is proposed by somebody that has opposing views than us. In my field, I am a CPA, we are taught to have skepticism, to question, to test if the results match what we see.
I am a conservative, not a Trump republican though I did vote for him. I consider my self more of a states rights guy that believes that the Federal government was created with limited powers and everything else should be decided by the individual states. I believe that the Supreme Court ruled correctly in overturning Roe vs. Wade, not because I am opposed to abortion, I am, but because it should be up to the individual states to decide. I believe that the Federal government has usurped power from the individual states and the individual states were only to willing to cede that power with their hands out for federal funds. Anyway, I am rambling politically now which I rarely do. I understand that many will disregard whatever I say because I am conservative and that is fine. I just wanted to give my perspective on Ann Selzer and my belief that it will become an increasingly larger problem as we become self isolated in our bubbles/spheres of contact with people that only agree with our perspective. Oh, and I increasingly believe that there is only one way to solve the financial crises that is looming because of our irresponsible political system that has spent more than they take in, we must tax more and cut spending. A government should run on a balanced budget just like any business and household. You can not spend more than you take in and if you do there will be future consequences.
Anyway, if you read all of this you more power to you. Lets all get back to the true need of the off topic forum, the picture posts of nude and scantily clad women. We can all or most of us come to agreement on that.
Its much better to release a poll that is way off and take the criticism than hide it.
So what you’re saying is that she didn’t go to hillbilly maga land as the libs would call it.
There is a big problem with people not being able to share ideas of both political sides. You bring up the phrase “both sides” on here and you get attacked. Unfortunately we are living in a world where schools, sports, commercials and everything else are constantly pushing their agenda. It amazes me how many kids are involved in politics. I feel bad for them, they should be focused on being a kid and having fun instead of what “group/side” they want to be a part of. Maybe I was lucky I went to a smaller school where we didn’t focus on groups, everyone hung out with everyone. You could have asked me what party our presidents at the time were a part of and I would have been clueless.
She had announced her “retirement” from doing the Register/Iowa poll almost a year ago. It has been known for some time this was her “last hoorah!” So to speak.
What have you done for me lately.
Rate her polling results for 2024 from 1 to 10 highest.
LOL.
No ones defending the results of her final poll, it was obviously wrong. This is is a very far cry from being proof that she sided with Dems.
Yeah and Hunter's got a bad rep now too. Do you and the rest of your club care?
I'm sure he doesn't care what others think with all the cash he's got available to him. 😆 🤣 😂 😹
What does Hunter have to do with this post?
Trump is such a whiny little bitch.
Ok tell us that dems weren't in desperation mode with how harris was being received. $1.3 billion spent in 3-4 months is desperation.
Look at all the Hollywood elites, recording stars being PAID to stand beside her. What's a million or 2 to a pollster to fudge some numbers on her way to retirement.
And her rep is not destroyed to team blue members. Probably setup for a bunch of retirement years polling jobs like do Iowans like corn. 😆
Um, based on you, trumps lawsuit threat above, and how conservative media responded, her rep took a serious hit, if not outright trashed.
You are presenting, with zero evidence and against everything we know about her work until 2 months ago, as fact that she was paid off by team blue.
And to what point? By the time this last poll was released, millions of votes had already been cast, she does not do polling for all of the battleground states, so she’s going to have a limited impact AT best on the Midwest. Only.
Newsflash - this had zero impact on anything, none of your conspiracy theory makes sense. Either present facts or kindly shut up.
He's a terrorist now too? Lmfao you're an idiot.
Alcohol abuse.
Kamala received over a billion dollars and still ended up losing and 20 million in debt lmfao
Actually the perfect summation of the democrat party in general
He doesn’t need evidence, he has faith. Being MAGA means whatever you choose to believe is true.
Well he should sue her. Her intentions were to influence the election. The courts can sort out whether there were damages. These sorts of election engineering types of news stories need to be put to a stop and this is one way to start that. Just like the ABC news settlement will end up being.
Hopefully gone are the days when the news can simply make up things and not be checked on it.
This is the way to foster a change. In court. That is the only language these multimedia companies speak. Money. Verdicts. Settlements. Sorry but that is a fact.
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You can call anything retribution that you want. I don't think you and I consider the same things retribution.
If Trump sends the FBI to investigate Kamala then you'll have a point. I am not aware of any crimes she may have committed.
The fact is, lots of illegal activity was covered up by the FBI and DOJ and those things will be rooted out. The cancer that has eroded the federal law enforcement agencies is about to get a big dose of radiation. Remember the Peter Strzok statement 'Dont worry we will stop it"? I do.
When so very many people have used their offices to purposefully target a political opponent they should expect to have their motives and methods investigated. If they are pure, there is nothing to worry about right? But if texts, emails, etc exist that clearly expose a conspiracy to influence an election via lawfare then we should pursue charges. If people like Cheney criminally sought to tamper with a witness then she should be punished.
So I think we are going to have to agree to disagree on what counts as retribution. Id say that that would require a motive to punish without actual suspicion of a crime. Like going after Kamala as stated. Maybe we could talk about how we are going to get someone as a part of a platform to get elected to, say...AG? Then we investigate the person in the search for a crime instead of investigate a crime and then the person that may have committed it.
I hope every single person that tried over the past few years to erases Trump from the political landscape via the legal system gets investigate for impropriety. Because there is damn sure some there.
We have the resources and soon the right people in place to take this next step. We cant ignore wrongdoing or criminality just because some may claim its retribution. ID also say that if the only things that are found are minor or at all questionable then we need to let that go. I am not for a prosecution like the one that we saw in Merchans courtroom or even the documents Mar a Lago stuff. No need to bring down the country for what I consider to be trivial.
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