Hoops Fearless Forecast
The Hawkeyes are ready to get the 2019-20 season. How will it play out?
Tom Kakert • HawkeyeReport
@hawkeyereport
The official start of the college basketball season is upon us.
For the hoops junkies, while March is the best time of the year, the intrigue of November and various holiday tournaments is also a whole lot of fun too.
For the Hawkeyes, this season is also filled with a whole lot of intrigue and questions. Honestly, as I look at this year, I haven’t felt this uncertain about how an Iowa basketball season would go in a long time.
Is Jordan Bohannon going to play? How good will he be if he does?
Are Joe Wieskamp and Luka Garza ready to take over as the main scoring options?
Can Joe Toussaint and Patrick McCaffery come in and make a significant impact?
Will Jack Nunge and C.J. Fredrick come off redshirt years and provide a significant spark?
Those are just some of the questions and honestly, I’m not sure of the answers to any of them. If those questions are answered positively, then Iowa will make another trip to the NCAA Tournament.
I do think this Iowa team will be able to score points on a consistent basis. Fran McCaffery’s teams at Iowa always find a way to play with a good pace and put the ball in the basket.
According to KenPom.com, every year under McCaffery except for the first season, Iowa has finished top 60 or better in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Right now Iowa is on a run where they have been 43rd or better nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.
This season, KenPom’s preseason projection has Iowa as having the 7th best team in the country as far as offensive efficiency. That’s an elite level of offense.
The concern has always been on the defensive end of the floor. As we have written in the past, the four year run with Adam Woodbury in the post has been the only years where McCaffery’s teams have been strong on defense.
Since Woodbury graduated, Iowa’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings have been 123rd, 242nd, and 111th. Now, it was much improved last year, which is a real positive that can’t be ignored. But, if Iowa is going to entertain not just making the NCAA Tournament, but advancing to the second weekend, they need to be in the Top 100 in this category.
With all that said, how do I see this season playing out for the Hawkeyes?
As I’ve said on our podcast and written in the past, I think Iowa needs Bohannon to play this year to make the NCAA Tournament. That doesn’t mean they can’t make it without him because they can, but coming into the season if feels like they are one shooter short if he doesn’t play or isn’t close to full strength.
I don’t think there’s any question that Bohannon wants to play. The question is will his body allow him to play as he returns from off-season hip surgery? I think right now it’s wait and see and the early portion of the season is going to be a test run to see if he’s full go or if he’s going to opt to shut things down and redshirt.
One thing we can say for sure is this is the most challenging slate of non-conference games that Fran McCaffery has ever scheduled for his team.
We will dive into game by game picks for the Hawkeyes as far as Big Ten contests, but let’s take a more global look at non-conference games.
There are five games Iowa will win among their non-conference games: SIUE, Oral Roberts, North Florida, Cal Poly, and Kennesaw State should be easy wins. So, let’s put Iowa at 5-0 on the season.
The six other games will be much more of a coin flip. Iowa hosts DePaul in the Gavitt Games, plays national championship runner-up Texas Tech in Las Vegas and then will face either Creighton or San Diego State the next day. Iowa travels to Syracuse for the Big Ten/ACC Challenge and also visits Iowa State, and then finally faces Cincinnati in a neutral site game before Christmas in Chicago.
Given that two of those contests are true road games and one is against a really good Texas Tech team, going 3-3 would be a really nice achievement. Maybe 4-2 could happen, but 2-4 is also a potential outcome. Let’s just say 3-3 and call it good. That puts Iowa at 8-3 in the non-conference portion of the schedule.
It’s also important to note, the Big Ten will play two games in December, so Iowa will have a stretch starting with the Vegas trip until December 12th, three weeks, where they face Texas Tech, Creighton/San Diego State, at Syracuse, at Michigan, Minnesota, and at Iowa State. Interestingly, Iowa will only have one home game from November 24th to December 29th.
Here’s the game by game outlook for Iowa’s Big Ten schedule
Dec. 6th - @Michigan – This will be the first Big Ten game for new head coach Juwan Howard as the Wolverine head coach. Michigan has some good pieces with Zavier Simpson, Isaiah Livers, and Jon Teske, but I think Michigan takes a step back this year. But, tough spot for Iowa. L
Dec. 9th – Minnesota – The Gophers have a promising big man in Daniel Oturu and I really like Gabe Kelscheur at shooting guard, but a lot of question marks for Richard Pitino this year. W
Jan. 4th – Penn State – This game will technically be a neutral site contest played at the Palsestra in Philly. Homecoming game for Fran McCaffery. Lamar Stevens is a terrific player and Mike Watkins gives Iowa trouble, but their guard court is thin. W
Jan. 7th - @Nebraska – Fred Hoiberg takes over the Husker program and basically Nebraska is the biggest mystery in the Big Ten because the roster basically turned over completely. Honestly, have no idea what to expect from them this year. W
Jan. 10th – Maryland – The first really big heavyweight test for the Hawkeyes of the new year. Maryland is a Big Ten title contender this year, but I really feel like Iowa’s going to give them a lot of trouble. W
Jan. 14th - @Northwestern – The Wildcats have really fallen off since their first trip to the NCAA Tournament. Younger team that is going to take their lumps this year. W
Jan. 17th – Michigan – The first team Iowa will face a second time this year and I think the Hawkeyes will get a little revenge on the Wolverines in this one. W
Jan. 22 – Rutgers – Last year the Scarlet Knights came to Iowa City and blew out the Hawkeyes. Ron Harper Jr. killed Iowa last year and Geo Baker is really talented. Iowa gets some revenge in this one. W
Jan. 27th – Wisconsin – It will be strange to not see Ethan Happ with the Badgers after his ten years in Madison. Good tough guards, but not sure they have much up front this year. W
Jan. 30th - @Maryland – Iowa got the Terps in Iowa City, but winning in College Park will be a pretty heavy lift. Might be running into a buzz saw that ends Iowa’s winning streak. L
Feb. 2nd – Illinois – I’ll go on record now that the Fighting Illini will be the most improved team in the Big Ten this year. Giorgi Bezhanishvili is a keeper and Kofi Cockburn makes a big impact. Tight game that Iowa wins late. W
Feb 5th - @Purdue – It feels like Iowa either plays really well or really bad at Purdue. I don’t think the Boilers are great this year and this one will be a real ugly grinder of a game. L
Feb. 8th – Nebraska – Second time around with the Huskers and I think the Hawkeyes pick up a fairly comfortable home win. W
Feb. 13th - @Indiana - It sure feels like Archie Miller is on a real hot seat heading into this year. Kind of an NCAA or bust season. I kind of like this Indiana team, but the flame out potential is high. L
Feb. 16th - @Minnesota – I don’t know why, but The Barn has felt like a house of horrors during the McCaffery era. There have been some really bad defensive games up there for Iowa. L
Feb. 20th – Ohio State – If there’s a team that’s going to top Michigan State this year, I think it’s the Buckeyes. I think Chris Holtman is a heck of a coach and now he has his most talented team. L
Feb. 25th - @Michigan State – I’ve mentioned places being a house of horrors for Iowa basketball, no place fits that better than East Lansing. Iowa fights hard in this one, but Sparty is good. L
Feb. 29th – Penn State – Hey, a leap year game for the Hawkeyes! Penn State could be playing out the string in the tenure of Pat Chambers. W
Mar. 3rd – Purdue – This kind of feels like it will be a really huge game for Iowa’s NCAA chances. Probably important for Purdue’s chances as well. Boilers ugly this one up. L
Mar. 8th – @Illinois – As I wrote earlier, I like this Illinois team quite a bit and this might be a bit of a buzz saw game for the Hawkeyes. L
So, 8-3 in the non-conference portion of the schedule and 11-9 in Big Ten play puts my guess for the season at 19-12 overall. That’s firmly on the bubble and probably on the good side of it with a winning record in conference play. Iowa would certain enhance their chances of climbing off the bubble by winning a couple of games in the conference tournament, which will be played in Indianapolis this year.
The Hawkeyes are ready to get the 2019-20 season. How will it play out?
Tom Kakert • HawkeyeReport
@hawkeyereport
The official start of the college basketball season is upon us.
For the hoops junkies, while March is the best time of the year, the intrigue of November and various holiday tournaments is also a whole lot of fun too.
For the Hawkeyes, this season is also filled with a whole lot of intrigue and questions. Honestly, as I look at this year, I haven’t felt this uncertain about how an Iowa basketball season would go in a long time.
Is Jordan Bohannon going to play? How good will he be if he does?
Are Joe Wieskamp and Luka Garza ready to take over as the main scoring options?
Can Joe Toussaint and Patrick McCaffery come in and make a significant impact?
Will Jack Nunge and C.J. Fredrick come off redshirt years and provide a significant spark?
Those are just some of the questions and honestly, I’m not sure of the answers to any of them. If those questions are answered positively, then Iowa will make another trip to the NCAA Tournament.
I do think this Iowa team will be able to score points on a consistent basis. Fran McCaffery’s teams at Iowa always find a way to play with a good pace and put the ball in the basket.
According to KenPom.com, every year under McCaffery except for the first season, Iowa has finished top 60 or better in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Right now Iowa is on a run where they have been 43rd or better nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.
This season, KenPom’s preseason projection has Iowa as having the 7th best team in the country as far as offensive efficiency. That’s an elite level of offense.
The concern has always been on the defensive end of the floor. As we have written in the past, the four year run with Adam Woodbury in the post has been the only years where McCaffery’s teams have been strong on defense.
Since Woodbury graduated, Iowa’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings have been 123rd, 242nd, and 111th. Now, it was much improved last year, which is a real positive that can’t be ignored. But, if Iowa is going to entertain not just making the NCAA Tournament, but advancing to the second weekend, they need to be in the Top 100 in this category.
With all that said, how do I see this season playing out for the Hawkeyes?
As I’ve said on our podcast and written in the past, I think Iowa needs Bohannon to play this year to make the NCAA Tournament. That doesn’t mean they can’t make it without him because they can, but coming into the season if feels like they are one shooter short if he doesn’t play or isn’t close to full strength.
I don’t think there’s any question that Bohannon wants to play. The question is will his body allow him to play as he returns from off-season hip surgery? I think right now it’s wait and see and the early portion of the season is going to be a test run to see if he’s full go or if he’s going to opt to shut things down and redshirt.
One thing we can say for sure is this is the most challenging slate of non-conference games that Fran McCaffery has ever scheduled for his team.
We will dive into game by game picks for the Hawkeyes as far as Big Ten contests, but let’s take a more global look at non-conference games.
There are five games Iowa will win among their non-conference games: SIUE, Oral Roberts, North Florida, Cal Poly, and Kennesaw State should be easy wins. So, let’s put Iowa at 5-0 on the season.
The six other games will be much more of a coin flip. Iowa hosts DePaul in the Gavitt Games, plays national championship runner-up Texas Tech in Las Vegas and then will face either Creighton or San Diego State the next day. Iowa travels to Syracuse for the Big Ten/ACC Challenge and also visits Iowa State, and then finally faces Cincinnati in a neutral site game before Christmas in Chicago.
Given that two of those contests are true road games and one is against a really good Texas Tech team, going 3-3 would be a really nice achievement. Maybe 4-2 could happen, but 2-4 is also a potential outcome. Let’s just say 3-3 and call it good. That puts Iowa at 8-3 in the non-conference portion of the schedule.
It’s also important to note, the Big Ten will play two games in December, so Iowa will have a stretch starting with the Vegas trip until December 12th, three weeks, where they face Texas Tech, Creighton/San Diego State, at Syracuse, at Michigan, Minnesota, and at Iowa State. Interestingly, Iowa will only have one home game from November 24th to December 29th.
Here’s the game by game outlook for Iowa’s Big Ten schedule
Dec. 6th - @Michigan – This will be the first Big Ten game for new head coach Juwan Howard as the Wolverine head coach. Michigan has some good pieces with Zavier Simpson, Isaiah Livers, and Jon Teske, but I think Michigan takes a step back this year. But, tough spot for Iowa. L
Dec. 9th – Minnesota – The Gophers have a promising big man in Daniel Oturu and I really like Gabe Kelscheur at shooting guard, but a lot of question marks for Richard Pitino this year. W
Jan. 4th – Penn State – This game will technically be a neutral site contest played at the Palsestra in Philly. Homecoming game for Fran McCaffery. Lamar Stevens is a terrific player and Mike Watkins gives Iowa trouble, but their guard court is thin. W
Jan. 7th - @Nebraska – Fred Hoiberg takes over the Husker program and basically Nebraska is the biggest mystery in the Big Ten because the roster basically turned over completely. Honestly, have no idea what to expect from them this year. W
Jan. 10th – Maryland – The first really big heavyweight test for the Hawkeyes of the new year. Maryland is a Big Ten title contender this year, but I really feel like Iowa’s going to give them a lot of trouble. W
Jan. 14th - @Northwestern – The Wildcats have really fallen off since their first trip to the NCAA Tournament. Younger team that is going to take their lumps this year. W
Jan. 17th – Michigan – The first team Iowa will face a second time this year and I think the Hawkeyes will get a little revenge on the Wolverines in this one. W
Jan. 22 – Rutgers – Last year the Scarlet Knights came to Iowa City and blew out the Hawkeyes. Ron Harper Jr. killed Iowa last year and Geo Baker is really talented. Iowa gets some revenge in this one. W
Jan. 27th – Wisconsin – It will be strange to not see Ethan Happ with the Badgers after his ten years in Madison. Good tough guards, but not sure they have much up front this year. W
Jan. 30th - @Maryland – Iowa got the Terps in Iowa City, but winning in College Park will be a pretty heavy lift. Might be running into a buzz saw that ends Iowa’s winning streak. L
Feb. 2nd – Illinois – I’ll go on record now that the Fighting Illini will be the most improved team in the Big Ten this year. Giorgi Bezhanishvili is a keeper and Kofi Cockburn makes a big impact. Tight game that Iowa wins late. W
Feb 5th - @Purdue – It feels like Iowa either plays really well or really bad at Purdue. I don’t think the Boilers are great this year and this one will be a real ugly grinder of a game. L
Feb. 8th – Nebraska – Second time around with the Huskers and I think the Hawkeyes pick up a fairly comfortable home win. W
Feb. 13th - @Indiana - It sure feels like Archie Miller is on a real hot seat heading into this year. Kind of an NCAA or bust season. I kind of like this Indiana team, but the flame out potential is high. L
Feb. 16th - @Minnesota – I don’t know why, but The Barn has felt like a house of horrors during the McCaffery era. There have been some really bad defensive games up there for Iowa. L
Feb. 20th – Ohio State – If there’s a team that’s going to top Michigan State this year, I think it’s the Buckeyes. I think Chris Holtman is a heck of a coach and now he has his most talented team. L
Feb. 25th - @Michigan State – I’ve mentioned places being a house of horrors for Iowa basketball, no place fits that better than East Lansing. Iowa fights hard in this one, but Sparty is good. L
Feb. 29th – Penn State – Hey, a leap year game for the Hawkeyes! Penn State could be playing out the string in the tenure of Pat Chambers. W
Mar. 3rd – Purdue – This kind of feels like it will be a really huge game for Iowa’s NCAA chances. Probably important for Purdue’s chances as well. Boilers ugly this one up. L
Mar. 8th – @Illinois – As I wrote earlier, I like this Illinois team quite a bit and this might be a bit of a buzz saw game for the Hawkeyes. L
So, 8-3 in the non-conference portion of the schedule and 11-9 in Big Ten play puts my guess for the season at 19-12 overall. That’s firmly on the bubble and probably on the good side of it with a winning record in conference play. Iowa would certain enhance their chances of climbing off the bubble by winning a couple of games in the conference tournament, which will be played in Indianapolis this year.
