How a 13-0 Iowa team misses the Playoff Part II

[Teldar]

When I posted last week that a 13-0 Iowa team could miss the playoff, people didn’t want to believe it. Most still don’t, but the possibility is still in play. Let’s review.


The Good

• Iowa won. This should go without saying but a good win to keep us in the hunt

• Northwestern & Wisconsin won. If Penn St. held on to beat NW, that would have been very costly for Iowa robbing us of our only ranked win. Now, both Wiskie and NW should be ranked this week and that will help a lot.

• Memphis lost. People wanted to underestimate the risk of an undefeated Memphis passing us, but the risk was real. Now it’s gone.

• Ole Miss lost. By Ole Miss losing, Alabama now controls its own destiny and that prevents a 1 loss Alabama non SEC champ from entering the discussion. This eliminates the SEC Bias scenario.

• Oklahoma State killed TCU & Baylor squeaks by Kansas State. This more neutral than good. However, maybe, just maybe, the committee reevaluates Baylor in light of TCUs whopping and Baylor’s narrow win over Kansas State and realize that they have beaten no team with a winning record and their defense cannot stop ANYONE.

• tOSU won. Every bad scenario goes away if we beat an undefeated Big Ten East team in the Big Ten Conference Championship. Can tOSU go undefeated? God, I hope so. Hey, JT Barrett. Stay away from the bar, will ya? At least until after you beat Michigan then I think you should go on a big bender and get arrestedJ. Which leads us to what didn’t’ go well.

The Bad

• MSU lost to Nebraska. I warned about it on my previous post. Some ridiculed me for this (I’m looking at you swihawk). But make no mistake, this is the worst thing that happened on Saturday. And on a scale of 1 -10, it was at least an 8 if not a 9. I’ll update the doomsday scenarios below, but this could potentially be deadly for the Hawks.

• Notre Dame won. Ah Pittsburgh. You could have solved almost all of our problems with a win in this game. However, the Golden Domers were clearly the better team. I promise you this: If ND & Iowa both win out, there will be a lot of discussion of which team is more deserving (a one loss ND team, an undefeated Iowa Big Ten Champion) with most of the talking heads taking ND. More on this in a minute.

• Stanford & Utah won. Both these Pac 12 teams still have only one loss. If they both get to the Pac 12 Championship game with one loss, this could spell danger for our Hawks.

Going Forward

Let’s get this out of the way first: If Ohio State wins out the regular season and an undefeated Iowa team beats them in the Big Ten Championship Game, we’re in. (Man, I hate having to root so hard for Ohio State). On the flip side, if Michigan wins the Big Ten East, watch out.

Ohio State’s remaining schedule includes @Illinois, Michigan State, and @Michigan. Michigan has @Indiana, @Penn State, and Ohio State. If Ohio State and Michigan both win their next two games, the season finale in the Big House will be for the Big Ten East crown. There could be nothing worse for Iowa than to face a 2 loss Michigan for the Big Ten Championship. NOTHING, besides us losing of course.

Here are Iowa’s realistic scenarios for the Big Ten Championship Game:

• An undefeated Ohio State team

• A one loss Michigan State team

• A one loss Ohio State team

• A two loss Michigan team

If it’s an undefeated Ohio State team, were in. If it’s a one loss Michigan State or Ohio State team, we will need a little help. If it’s a two loss Michigan team, we will need a lot of help.

Some other factors to consider is how Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Pittsburgh do from here on out. If Northwestern can finish the season 10-2, there is a good chance they finish in the top 12 maybe even the top 10. That would be a huge win for us. If Wisconsin goes 10-2 (they both can’t go 10-2 because they play each other), they would finish in the top 15. I think the ceiling at this point for Pittsburgh is 8-4. They finish @Duke, Miami, and Louisville. They have a real risk of finishing 7-5.


The Notre Dame Problem

Notre Dame shouldn’t be a problem but they are. If the committee were to follow its own guidelines, Iowa would be ranked higher than them right now. However, it is giving Notre Dame an extreme amount of credit for their LOSS to Clemson. The worst case scenario is Notre Dame wins out, Clemson wins out and Stanford wins the Pac 12. That would give Notre Dame a narrow loss to the #1 team on the road and a win on the road against the Pac 12 champ. What happens if Iowa beats a two loss Michigan team for the Big Ten Championship and has no top ranked signature wins? If the committee follows their criteria, we should be ranked higher. However, with this committee, I wouldn’t take that to the bank.


What to root for this week:

• Northwestern, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Just hold serve boys. You will all be favored in your games, just win them.

• Indiana. The best way to eliminate a 2 loss Michigan team from the Big Ten Championship game is for them to lose. And I think Indiana has a great chance to do it. The game is in Bloomington.

• Oklahoma. It's time to get rid of this Baylor nonsense. I think Oklahoma goes into Waco and beats Baylor. If the Big 12 has a one loss champion, it puts Iowa in great shape.

• Iowa State. Oh, Iowa State. You derailed Oklahoma State’s national championship dreams before. Can you do it again? How about one for your big brother, huh? We promise to stop giving you swirlys for a week if you can pull this off.

• Oregon & Arizona. Stanford has owned Oregon. I don’t think they can pull the upset this week and Arizona is just not good. We need to root for them but I don’t see Stanford or Utah losing this week.

• Wake Forest & Syracuse. I’ll put it in here but no way Wake Forest beats Notre Dame in South Bend. I give Syracuse a little better chance as they played LSU tough for a while, but I still think Clemson gets it done.

• That leaves us with the Alabama game. Alabama has only one real hurdle the rest of the way and his name is Dak Prescott. I don’t think Auburn in the season finale or even Florida can beat Alabama in the SEC Championship game, but I do think Mississippi State has a real chance this week in Starkville, especially given Alabama’s emotional win over LSU. Can MSU do it? Probably not. But if they could and looking at LSU’s tough remaining schedule, a win by Dak Prescott & company could knock the SEC out of the playoff and bring awesome news to Hawkeye fans.

 

[RIGHTWINGHAWK]

When I posted last week that a 13-0 Iowa team could miss the playoff, people didn’t want to believe it. Most still don’t, but the possibility is still in play. Let’s review.


The Good

• Iowa won. This should go without saying but a good win to keep us in the hunt

• Northwestern & Wisconsin won. If Penn St. held on to beat NW, that would have been very costly for Iowa robbing us of our only ranked win. Now, both Wiskie and NW should be ranked this week and that will help a lot.

• Memphis lost. People wanted to underestimate the risk of an undefeated Memphis passing us, but the risk was real. Now it’s gone.

• Ole Miss lost. By Ole Miss losing, Alabama now controls its own destiny and that prevents a 1 loss Alabama non SEC champ from entering the discussion. This eliminates the SEC Bias scenario.

• Oklahoma State killed TCU & Baylor squeaks by Kansas State. This more neutral than good. However, maybe, just maybe, the committee reevaluates Baylor in light of TCUs whopping and Baylor’s narrow win over Kansas State and realize that they have beaten no team with a winning record and their defense cannot stop ANYONE.

• tOSU won. Every bad scenario goes away if we beat an undefeated Big Ten East team in the Big Ten Conference Championship. Can tOSU go undefeated? God, I hope so. Hey, JT Barrett. Stay away from the bar, will ya? At least until after you beat Michigan then I think you should go on a big bender and get arrestedJ. Which leads us to what didn’t’ go well.

The Bad

• MSU lost to Nebraska. I warned about it on my previous post. Some ridiculed me for this (I’m looking at you swihawk). But make no mistake, this is the worst thing that happened on Saturday. And on a scale of 1 -10, it was at least an 8 if not a 9. I’ll update the doomsday scenarios below, but this could potentially be deadly for the Hawks.

• Notre Dame won. Ah Pittsburgh. You could have solved almost all of our problems with a win in this game. However, the Golden Domers were clearly the better team. I promise you this: If ND & Iowa both win out, there will be a lot of discussion of which team is more deserving (a one loss ND team, an undefeated Iowa Big Ten Champion) with most of the talking heads taking ND. More on this in a minute.

• Stanford & Utah won. Both these Pac 12 teams still have only one loss. If they both get to the Pac 12 Championship game with one loss, this could spell danger for our Hawks.

Going Forward

Let’s get this out of the way first: If Ohio State wins out the regular season and an undefeated Iowa team beats them in the Big Ten Championship Game, we’re in. (Man, I hate having to root so hard for Ohio State). On the flip side, if Michigan wins the Big Ten East, watch out.

Ohio State’s remaining schedule includes @Illinois, Michigan State, and @Michigan. Michigan has @Indiana, @Penn State, and Ohio State. If Ohio State and Michigan both win their next two games, the season finale in the Big House will be for the Big Ten East crown. There could be nothing worse for Iowa than to face a 2 loss Michigan for the Big Ten Championship. NOTHING, besides us losing of course.

Here are Iowa’s realistic scenarios for the Big Ten Championship Game:

• An undefeated Ohio State team

• A one loss Michigan State team

• A one loss Ohio State team

• A two loss Michigan team

If it’s an undefeated Ohio State team, were in. If it’s a one loss Michigan State or Ohio State team, we will need a little help. If it’s a two loss Michigan team, we will need a lot of help.

Some other factors to consider is how Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Pittsburgh do from here on out. If Northwestern can finish the season 10-2, there is a good chance they finish in the top 12 maybe even the top 10. That would be a huge win for us. If Wisconsin goes 10-2 (they both can’t go 10-2 because they play each other), they would finish in the top 15. I think the ceiling at this point for Pittsburgh is 8-4. They finish @Duke, Miami, and Louisville. They have a real risk of finishing 7-5.


The Notre Dame Problem

Notre Dame shouldn’t be a problem but they are. If the committee were to follow its own guidelines, Iowa would be ranked higher than them right now. However, it is giving Notre Dame an extreme amount of credit for their LOSS to Clemson. The worst case scenario is Notre Dame wins out, Clemson wins out and Stanford wins the Pac 12. That would give Notre Dame a narrow loss to the #1 team on the road and a win on the road against the Pac 12 champ. What happens if Iowa beats a two loss Michigan team for the Big Ten Championship and has no top ranked signature wins? If the committee follows their criteria, we should be ranked higher. However, with this committee, I wouldn’t take that to the bank.


What to root for this week:

• Northwestern, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Just hold serve boys. You will all be favored in your games, just win them.

• Indiana. The best way to eliminate a 2 loss Michigan team from the Big Ten Championship game is for them to lose. And I think Indiana has a great chance to do it. The game is in Bloomington.

• Oklahoma. It's time to get rid of this Baylor nonsense. I think Oklahoma goes into Waco and beats Baylor. If the Big 12 has a one loss champion, it puts Iowa in great shape.

• Iowa State. Oh, Iowa State. You derailed Oklahoma State’s national championship dreams before. Can you do it again? How about one for your big brother, huh? We promise to stop giving you swirlys for a week if you can pull this off.

• Oregon & Arizona. Stanford has owned Oregon. I don’t think they can pull the upset this week and Arizona is just not good. We need to root for them but I don’t see Stanford or Utah losing this week.

• Wake Forest & Syracuse. I’ll put it in here but no way Wake Forest beats Notre Dame in South Bend. I give Syracuse a little better chance as they played LSU tough for a while, but I still think Clemson gets it done.

• That leaves us with the Alabama game. Alabama has only one real hurdle the rest of the way and his name is Dak Prescott. I don’t think Auburn in the season finale or even Florida can beat Alabama in the SEC Championship game, but I do think Mississippi State has a real chance this week in Starkville, especially given Alabama’s emotional win over LSU. Can MSU do it? Probably not. But if they could and looking at LSU’s tough remaining schedule, a win by Dak Prescott & company could knock the SEC out of the playoff and bring awesome news to Hawkeye fans.

Excellent analysis. I see Stanford plays Notre Dame in a couple weeks which should help the Hawks. I wouldn't be surprised to see Boomer Sooner upset Baylor this weekend.

 

[Cushawk]

Keep it simple. Root for Iowa. If we are 13-0, undefeated and B1G champions we are a lock regardless of anything other scenario.

 

[BioHawk]

No way an undefeated Big 10 team is not in the playoff. The end.

Baylor or Notre Dame get the short end of the stick in that case. Still, a lot of good info in the post about rooting interests. I just disagree that there is anyway a 13-0 Iowa team will not be in the playoffs. The only way that would ever be possible is if all P5 conference winners are undefeated and that's not happening this year.

 

[St. Louis Hawk]

No way an undefeated Big 10 team is not in the playoff. The end.

Baylor or Notre Dame get the short end of the stick in that case. Still, a lot of good info in the post about rooting interests. I just disagree that there is anyway a 13-0 Iowa team will not be in the playoffs. The only way that would ever be possible is if all P5 conference winners are undefeated and that's not happening this year.

Agree 100%. The Big Ten will blow up the playoff and pull the Rose Bowl back (as soon as the current contract ends) if their undefeated 13-0 champion is passed by 2 or more teams with losses. Full stop.

 

[Teldar]

No way an undefeated Big 10 team is not in the playoff. The end.

Baylor or Notre Dame get the short end of the stick in that case. Still, a lot of good info in the post about rooting interests. I just disagree that there is anyway a 13-0 Iowa team will not be in the playoffs. The only way that would ever be possible is if all P5 conference winners are undefeated and that's not happening this year.

If Baylor goes undefeated, they will not get the short end of the stick. They will be ranked ahead of us under most scenarios. Right now they are ranked ahead of us. If they go undefeated, they will have wins over TCU, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma AND they will be the Big 12 champ. They will be ranked ahead of us whether they deserve it or not. This committee values offense, not defense.

I mentioned that we should leapfrog Notre Dame. But I don't trust this committee

 

[Teldar]

Keep it simple. Root for Iowa. If we are 13-0, undefeated and B1G champions we are a lock regardless of anything other scenario.

If we were going to "keep it simple", we wouldn't be on these boards and you wouldn't be commenting on this post. And there are scenarios that we get left out. You just don't want to accept them.

 

[Shafthawk]

I have zero concerns of a 13-0 Iowa team missing the playoffs.

The only concern is trying to get to 13-0.

 

[Cushawk]

If we were going to "keep it simple", we wouldn't be on these boards and you wouldn't be commenting on this post. And there are scenarios that we get left out. You just don't want to accept them.

Woe is me. You are trying to hard.

 

[ICWestfan]

The SEC bias- if Florida loses to FSU and then beats Bama in the SEC title game I could see a one loss LSU sneaking in ahead of Iowa. But that would be the only conspiracy theory I would forward at this stage.

 

[Chuck C]

The rankings really mean squat right now. You keep forgetting one of the largest components they use in determining their final rankings. Winning a conference championship. This is why a 1 loss Ohio State team jumped two Big 12 teams after they won the Big Ten CC. As was discussed ad nausium last year, the committee was sending a message to the Big 12 that they need to get on board and get a CCG.

Undefeated ACC champion is in, 1 loss SEC team is in, undefeated Big10 champ is in. It will come down to the ND/Stanford winner and the Big 12. If the Big 12 has an undefeated team I think they get in this year, leaving ND out. If the Big 12 beats itself up and is left with no undefeated teams, the lack of the CCG is going to bite them in the ass again and ND is in. ND is a team that will need help in the final rankings, having no conference CCG themselves.

If Stanford beats ND and wins the Pac 12, and the Big 12 has an undefeated team, it could come down to Iowa and Stanford. Per the committees own guidelines another big factor is:

• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

Iowa obviously owns a huge advantage in that department.

It will be telling this week I think to see who is number 4, Oklahoma State or ND.

 

[Teldar]

The rankings really mean squat right now. You keep forgetting one of the largest components they use in determining their final rankings. Winning a conference championship. This is why a 1 loss Ohio State team jumped two Big 12 teams after they won the Big Ten CC. As was discussed ad nausium last year, the committee was sending a message to the Big 12 that they need to get on board and get a CCG.

Undefeated ACC champion is in, 1 loss SEC team is in, undefeated Big10 champ is in. It will come down to the ND/Stanford winner and the Big 12. If the Big 12 has an undefeated team I think they get in this year, leaving ND out. If the Big 12 beats itself up and is left with no undefeated teams, the lack of the CCG is going to bite them in the ass again and ND is in. ND is a team that will need help in the final rankings, having no conference CCG themselves.

If Stanford beats ND and wins the Pac 12, and the Big 12 has an undefeated team, it could come down to Iowa and Stanford. Per the committees own guidelines another big factor is:

• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

Iowa obviously owns a huge advantage in that department.

I agree with some of your points. However, the Big 12 was penalized last year because they had no clear conference champ (TCU & Baylor each had 1 loss). If Baylor or Okie State go undefeated, they will have a true champ, even without a conference championship game.

In regards to Stanford, this could get very tricky. You are right about the common opponents. However, that is the 4th criteria. The second criteria is strength of schedule. I have to give Stanford credit. They are playing 11 Power Five conference schools (counting Notre Dame). They play a nine game Pac 12 schedule and their non conference was Northwestern, UCF, Notre Dame. They will most likely play 10 bowl eligible teams (counting conference championship) and 9 wins over those teams. Iowa will only have probably 6 of those wins. Does the committee give more credit to that harder schedule over outcome of a common opponent? I don't want to find out. That's why I think a lot of people on this board are being naive about us being left out. They could take Stanford over us. I think in the end they pick us, but it is way closer than people realize.

 

[hwk23]

Did we really need a part II of this thread? OP didn't even know there are 4 teams in the play-off. An unbeaten Big Ten Champ has nothing to worry about, period.

 

[Lumas Etima]

Here's the the thing:

If OSU/Iowa win out, they are a lock.
If Bama wins out, they are a lock.
If Clemson wins out, they are a lock.
If Notre Dame wins out (including an end-of-year win over Stanford), they are a lock.
If Baylor/Okie St win out, they are a lock.

The obvious problem is that in the above scenarios, you have 5 teams where "there's no way the committee leaves them out," but there's only 4 spots available.

And these scenarios don't even consider the possibility of a 1-loss team like Oklahoma winning out, finishing the season with wins over Baylor, TCU, and Okie St., and passing somebody. Or the SEC going crazy and LSU or Florida sneaking back I to contention.

If Iowa does win out, including the B1G title game, we should have an excellent chance to be in the playoffs. But there's absolutely no guarantee, and intelligent fans should be aware of this.

Of course, most of all, we need to take care of business. Minnesota, Purdue, and Nebraska aren't going to roll over for us. There's a lot of season left.

 

[Cushawk]

How a 13-0 Iowa Team misses the playoffs part III

They wont.

 

[ThorneStockton]

If we were going to "keep it simple", we wouldn't be on these boards and you wouldn't be commenting on this post. And there are scenarios that we get left out. You just don't want to accept them.

I appreciate your analysis, but this is just like, your opinion, man.

 

[Cushawk]

Here's the the thing:

If OSU/Iowa win out, they are a lock.
If Bama wins out, they are a lock.
If Clemson wins out, they are a lock.
If Notre Dame wins out (including an end-of-year win over Stanford), they are a lock.
If Baylor/Okie St win out, they are a lock.

The obvious problem is that in the above scenarios, you have 5 teams where "there's no way the committee leaves them out," but there's only 4 spots available.

And these scenarios don't even consider the possibility of a 1-loss team like Oklahoma winning out, finishing the season with wins over Baylor, TCU, and Okie St., and passing somebody. Or the SEC going crazy and LSU or Florida sneaking back I to contention.

If Iowa does win out, including the B1G title game, we should have an excellent chance to be in the playoffs. But there's absolutely no guarantee, and intelligent fans should be aware of this.

Of course, most of all, we need to take care of business. Minnesota, Purdue, and Nebraska aren't going to roll over for us. There's a lot of season left.

Problem is, if ND wins out, they are NOT a lock. ND will get left out before an undefeated P5 champion. ND only hope now is that there are several 1-loss conference champs. They could get in then. But they will not jump an undefeated P5 champ.

 

[Hawked]

Keep it simple. Root for Iowa. If we are 13-0, undefeated and B1G champions we are a lock regardless of anything other scenario.

You are wrong.

 

[Hawked]

Did we really need a part II of this thread? OP didn't even know there are 4 teams in the play-off. An unbeaten Big Ten Champ has nothing to worry about, period.

You are wrong. Period.

 

[Cushawk]

You are wrong.

You are incorrect in your assumption that I am wrong.

 

[Lumas Etima]

Problem is, if ND wins out, they are NOT a lock. ND will get left out before an undefeated P5 champion. ND only hope now is that there are several 1-loss conference champs. They could get in then. But they will not jump an undefeated P5 champ.

Yeah, you would think ND wouldn't jump an undefeated P5 team. Except that they already did. And with a chance to end the season with a signature win on the road, I don't see how the committee drops them in the rankings.

 

[ABYPFCS]

Did we really need a part II of this thread? OP didn't even know there are 4 teams in the play-off. An unbeaten Big Ten Champ has nothing to worry about, period.

I am waiting for Part III.

 

[YouGotThatRight]

If it’s an undefeated Ohio State team, were in. If it’s a one loss Michigan State or Ohio State team, we will need a little help. If it’s a two loss Michigan team, we will need a lot of help.

I agree with this. If undefeated Iowa plays undefeated OSU in the BTCG, the winner will not be denied a playoff spot. And the loser will go to the Rose Bowl. Which is why Hawkeye fans should be Buckeye fans for the next three weeks.

 

[Cushawk]

Yeah, you would think ND wouldn't jump an undefeated P5 team. Except that they already did. And with a chance to end the season with a signature win on the road, I don't see how the committee drops them in the rankings.

Jump an undefeated TEAM with games left to play is a lot different than jumping an undefeated conference CHAMPION with no games left to play. The committee is positioning teams now to justify putting teams in the playoffs under certain scenarios at the end of the season. But there is no scenario they leave out an undefeated conference champion for a 1-loss independent or other team. This whole committee thing was set up by the P5 conferences. You think they would accept an undefeated champion getting left out?

 

[Hawked]

You are incorrect in your assumption that I am wrong.

You are wrong again. I wish you weren't but you are.

 

[parker01]

The B1G is too powerful. The committee won't leave an undefeated B1G champion out because the B1G won't let them. If they do, the playoff is done (this likely applies to any P5 undefeated conf champ being left out at any point).

 

[soybean]

There is no way any undefeated BIG10 Champion, even Iowa, will ever be left out of this current playoff system. Iowa may not be a college football blueblood, but the BIG10 is.

 

[FBletterman]

Lol, give it a rest. I'm done with that stuff and I'm going to savor each game at a time; we only have 5-6 left. Cause this ride may never happen again.

 

[BioHawk]

If Baylor goes undefeated, they will not get the short end of the stick. They will be ranked ahead of us under most scenarios. Right now they are ranked ahead of us. If they go undefeated, they will have wins over TCU, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma AND they will be the Big 12 champ. They will be ranked ahead of us whether they deserve it or not. This committee values offense, not defense.

I mentioned that we should leapfrog Notre Dame. But I don't trust this committee

Iowa will have beaten Wisconsin, Northwestern, Pitt, and Ohio State. Iowa's resume will more than stand up against Baylor's. The committee might do some silly things, and part of that is to make sure the undefeated Big 10 champ is included. They did last year.

 

[Suterman]

Undefeated Iowa or Ohio State will be in the play-offs for sure. It's going to be FAR more difficult for Iowa to win the next 4 than it is to get the play-off bid after we do so.

 

[GarryO37]

If there's one thing that everyone has agreed on (with the exception of that blowhard Cowherd), it's that an undefeated Iowa makes the playoff. The CFP committee will feel the same way. End of Story.

 

[your_master5]

You are wrong again. I wish you weren't but you are.

How many times in the last 20+ years has an undefeated power five team been left out of the top 4 in the AP poll before the bowls? I think you know the answer. But I guess you're Lloyd Christmas and you're saying there's a chance...

 

[RocknRollface]

Another scenario with a 13-0 Iowa missing playoff is if Aliens invade.

This team will get exactly what it deserves.

 

[Lumas Etima]

This thread reminds me of 2009, when fans were assured that Iowa was a "lock" for the Rose Bowl. Some folks even bought non-refundable tickets.

Lol. I hope you guys who are confident are right.

 

[Yooper Irishfan]

I can understand why you guys are nervous about missing out should you go undefeated, but there is no reason to be imo. I see the 3 locks as being Clemson, Bama (should they win out), and an undefeated BIG champ. The 4th spot would go to an undefeated Baylor/OSU, or ND if we win out (far from a given...Stanford is tough). Stanford could get it too if they beat us and everyone in the Big 12 has a loss.

Bottom line, you guys will be guaranteed a spot if you win out.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

OP the premise is that an UNDEFEATED Iowa could get left out. If you look at schedules, only 3 power 5 teams can go undefeated. Let the committee choose between the SEC, PAC 12 or ND for who gets left out with a loss

 

[DBQ Hawk]

If Iowa is 13-0, no matter who they played in Indy, they will go to the Playoff, because the powers-that-be know that it would all blow-up if a major 5 conf team went undefeated, including winning their conf champ game, yet were still left out of the dance.

There is still something special about running the table, and that will be preserved, ND's legacy and reputation be damned. Now, if it came down to a 1-loss Iowa vs a 2-loss ND, that's a different story.

 

[Hawked]

How many times in the last 20+ years has an undefeated power five team been left out of the top 4 in the AP poll before the bowls? I think you know the answer. But I guess you're Lloyd Christmas and you're saying there's a chance...

You do realize the football playoff rankings have different criteria and zero members from the AP on the committee, right? Two totally different ranking systems. I'm just saying 13 and 0 Iowa is NOT a lock. It's not that hard to understand that there are scenarios where Iowa could be left out. Neither you nor I know what the committee will or will not do for sure so for anyone to say anything regarding the playoffs as "a lock" is just foolish and wrong.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

If a 13-0 Iowa misses the playoff if they beat an undefeated OSU, then it shows how much of a joke the CFP committee really is. I already think they are a joke...teams jumping from 15 to top 4 and etc...

 

[GPRHAWK]

I have seen no scenarios in this post or elsewhere that concerns me that we would be left out if 13-0. I have also not heard any pundits say it's possible for us to be left out at 13-0. I'm about as worried about this as I am about being hit by a meteor.