Politics guarantee that an undefeated B1G champ will always make the playoff. Any conversation to the contrary (or 5,000 word essay) is pointless
How a 13-0 Iowa team misses the Playoff Part II
- Thread starter Teldar
- Start date
Let's break this scenario down to its core. I think we can safely assume that if Iowa beats an undefeated Ohio State, were in. So leave that scenario out of the discussion. We only are vulnerable if we play a 2 loss Michigan or a 1 loss MSU/OSU. With that as the backdrop, here is the scenario. .
- I think we can all agree that an undefeated Clemson would get in ahead of us
- I think we can also all agree that a one loss Alabama gets in before us
- There might be some disagreement on this one, but I also think an undefeated Big 12 conference champ gets in before us too.
How you just took entirely too much time out of your day to breakdown something completely irrelevant because that will never happen. There will never be a undefeated B1G Champion left out of that playoff.
There are 5 BCS conferences... ACC, Pac12, Big12, B1G, SEC?
I think 13-0 Iowa with victory over OSU makes the playoffs.
We know the SEC champ will be there. ACC will be there if they have undefeated champ.
Pac12 and Big12 will be on the fence.
Iowa loses once and we are out.
I think 13-0 Iowa with victory over OSU makes the playoffs.
We know the SEC champ will be there. ACC will be there if they have undefeated champ.
Pac12 and Big12 will be on the fence.
Iowa loses once and we are out.
We should remember that Barry Alvarez is on the committee, which should help us given that he probably wasn't want both Iowa's and Wisconsin's perceived strength that would happen if an undefeated Iowa were left out undefeated. On the other hand, you have Condi Rice, who probably has the least amount of football knowledge pushing her alma mater Stanford, that could help Stanford with some votes. Also, I would think that former MSU QB Tyrone Willingham as a committee member probably disliked the outcome of the Nebraska / MSU game pretty heavily yesterday, and wouldn't want to see the conference shortchanged in the case of Iowa's schedule being "devalued" if they play a "one loss" MSU team for the championship, when they should be undefeated this year too.
Again, NO WAY an undefeated big ten team is left out. ABSOLUTELY NO WAY.
Getting to 13-0 should be everyone's concern as the odds of that are pretty fricken slim (< 10%).
Getting to 13-0 should be everyone's concern as the odds of that are pretty fricken slim (< 10%).
Does a one loss Stanford/Notre Dame/Utah get in ahead of us if we are undefeated, even if the CCG was against a two-loss Michigan? No. No they do not. Stanford loses to us in head to head comparisons because of common opponents, overall record, relative strength of conference, etc. Utah is in much the same situation as Stanford. A bad loss to USC will be something that they just cannot shake when they are stacking their record against an undefeated Iowa. Notre Dame will not be a conference champion, and will be hurt by their independence in a scenario like this...they need to nut up and join a conference. The big conferences run things now more than they ever have, and for all the cache Notre Dame has...it pales in comparison to the combined weight of any P5 conference, especially one with the financial clout of the B1G. A one-loss Notre Dame does not get in ahead of any undefeated P5 conference champion.
Just win. That is all we have to do. The hand wringing only need commence after the first "L". In which case, it is pretty obvious that we will not be confused with Alabama and get a mulligan.
I've thought the same thing but not anymore.
- Alabama? They get mulligans. Win out, they are a lock.
- ND? They are good and the talking heads love them. So does the committee. Big Time!
- Oklahoma? Man, they are on a post Texas roll. Style points up the wazoooooo!
- Clemson? #1
- Iowa........too bad, so sad. It's the Big Ten's year to say we got F'd!!!
Then you do also realize the CFP has only existed for one year, so you have to go by what information you have available and the closest we have is the AP poll. I don't need to know, there's not a chance in today's situation that what you're saying will happen. It's neither foolish not wrong.
Codflyer, you are right on part of this and wrong on the other. Common opponents is the 4th criteria. However, the second criteria is strength of schedule. Right now, Stanford's is 31st and we are 56th. Utah's is 20th. Stanford still has Oregon, Notre Dame, and Cal. Their SOS will skyrocket into the top ten by the end of the season while ours will continue to go the other way. This is where I get nervous. Does the committee prioritize our common opponent win over their much more difficult schedule? This is not a slam dunk either way and will be debated hard by the committee. That is why it is critical we get an undefeated Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game.
Thanks Herkmeister. At least someone appreciates real analysis.
The BiG has two representatives on the committee, as does the SEC. No other conference has more than one. If you're assuming prejudice is a factor in the selection, the Big XII has bitching rights. But I really doubt prejudice has all that much to do with it.
I think that's a very good bet. At this point, I think Oklahoma is going to tie with somebody for the title with one loss. If so, it will be somebody the Boomers beat.
Simply put, Baylor is NOT going to 'win out'. TCU was exposed last weekend, as their prior opponents had a collective record something like 13 games BELOW 0.500.
Baylor's opponents are 23 games BELOW 0.500. They will not have the success against OK and OKSt they have had against the EXTREMELY weak competition they have seen so far. Even Iowa State played fairly well against them. Any team with a semblance of a pass rush is going to pound them, like TCU learned on Saturday.
Baylor and TCU both had the glaringly WEAKEST schedules to date of ANY Top Ten teams, and neither had any business in the Top Ten until they played a good team. They SHOULD have been ranked near where Memphis and Houston were, lower end of the Top 20.
OKState and OK are the teams in the B12 who could claim a playoff spot. An undefeated OKState, undefeated B10, undefeated Clemson and SEC team will round out the playoffs. ND might claim a spot over a ONE-defeated team from the Power5, but not an undefeated one. And the playoff committee will not be up for a Clemson/ND rematch. Best hope for us is Clemson loses 1 game, and the last playoff spot comes down to them vs ND. No chance the committee gives that spot to ND over a team that beat them earlier in the year.
The Pac12 will be left out if the rest of the Power5 have undefeated representatives.
Baylor's opponents are 23 games BELOW 0.500. They will not have the success against OK and OKSt they have had against the EXTREMELY weak competition they have seen so far. Even Iowa State played fairly well against them. Any team with a semblance of a pass rush is going to pound them, like TCU learned on Saturday.
Baylor and TCU both had the glaringly WEAKEST schedules to date of ANY Top Ten teams, and neither had any business in the Top Ten until they played a good team. They SHOULD have been ranked near where Memphis and Houston were, lower end of the Top 20.
OKState and OK are the teams in the B12 who could claim a playoff spot. An undefeated OKState, undefeated B10, undefeated Clemson and SEC team will round out the playoffs. ND might claim a spot over a ONE-defeated team from the Power5, but not an undefeated one. And the playoff committee will not be up for a Clemson/ND rematch. Best hope for us is Clemson loses 1 game, and the last playoff spot comes down to them vs ND. No chance the committee gives that spot to ND over a team that beat them earlier in the year.
The Pac12 will be left out if the rest of the Power5 have undefeated representatives.
A couple of points. I completely agree with you about TCU and Baylor. However, the committee has disagreed with us. Either way, it doesn't matter in the Big 12. Either Baylor will prove themselves these next three weeks or they will get exposed. I personally think Oklahoma beats them this week. However, if Okie State or Baylor win out, they will be ranked ahead of us. In addition, you are underestimating the Pac 12. If Stanford wins out by beating Oregon, Cal, and the committee's beloved Notre Dame, they will be ranked ahead of us. I don't make many guarantees, but I'll make that one. That's why we need an undefeated Ohio State so we leapfrog them back in the CCG. I could see a final four of Clemson, Alabama, Baylor/Okie State, and Stanford. And then we can all cry in our beer together at the Rose Bowl.
Based on OSU winning the whole thing last year, I think the committee would be reluctant to leave out a 1-loss B10 team. But there's no way a 1-loss team this year takes the spot for an undefeated Power5 team.
ND's only chance is if Clemson remains undefeated. If Clemson drops a game, then ND's claim to a spot drops a notch.
I agree us getting to 13-0 is by far the bigger risk here; for now the rest is probably not worth debating.
... but then again, what else are we going to do on a Monday? While ordinarily I'd agree that it would be pretty close to impossible that an undefeated BigTen team be left out... if you have 4 of the power 5 forward undefeated teams, plus a 1-loss ND that lost only narrowly to the #1 team + defeats the Pac12 champ...
...sure the Big10 has influence, but so does ND. If the best we can boast is a win over a 2-loss Michigan, NO WAY I see this being a slam dunk for us.
Of course it could happen that 13-0 Iowa gets left out. But the odds are so low it's not even worth worrying about. And if you're going to worry, let's wait until AFTER Iowa is 13-0. This is a semi-interesting discussion, but it's all academic at this point.
I will say that if 13-0 Iowa gets left out, we'll have bitching rights for all time!
"Hey, remember back in '15 when 13-0 Iowa didn't get a spot in the playoffs?"
"Yeah, man, we were ROBBED! We would have won it all!"
"Here, have another beer."
I will say that if 13-0 Iowa gets left out, we'll have bitching rights for all time!
"Hey, remember back in '15 when 13-0 Iowa didn't get a spot in the playoffs?"
"Yeah, man, we were ROBBED! We would have won it all!"
"Here, have another beer."
If it happens that an undefeated Iowa is left out, the playoffs won't "be done." They will simply move to an 8 team playoff sooner, rather than later. We will still have been screwed.
This is what I would call a negative post. Why not focus on how the Hawks win the next game or games and make it to the National Championship game? Just win and everything takes care of itself. Go Hawks!
Yep. MN and Nebraska are not having great seasons, but both still have capable teams (just ask MSU and Michigan - a Michigan team that is damn lucky MN effed up their clock management on the 1 yard line).
I look forward to Iowa playing one of the historical 'big boys' in the B10 title game. We'll see where things land after that.
Agreed, I like Iowa's chances against any team in the east when Iowa make it to the BIG 10 championship game.
Let's look at the potential end game.
13-0 Iowa is left out in favor of a 1 loss SEC champ or ND. Iowa goes to the Rose Bowl and beats Stanford. You now end the year with a 14-0 Power 5 team with victories over 5 teams that are or have been in the top 25. Then, say Bama wins the CFP. You have an undefeated team that wasn't given a chance and a "Champion" with 1 loss. Complete chaos.
Remember, these are people making these decisions and their names are on the product that comes out in the end. The risk of leaving a 13-0 Iowa out, would be too high to offset the gain for including a 1-loss team.
13-0 Iowa is left out in favor of a 1 loss SEC champ or ND. Iowa goes to the Rose Bowl and beats Stanford. You now end the year with a 14-0 Power 5 team with victories over 5 teams that are or have been in the top 25. Then, say Bama wins the CFP. You have an undefeated team that wasn't given a chance and a "Champion" with 1 loss. Complete chaos.
Remember, these are people making these decisions and their names are on the product that comes out in the end. The risk of leaving a 13-0 Iowa out, would be too high to offset the gain for including a 1-loss team.
I didn't read every response all the way through because I don't have quite enough time for all that. Posters seem to fall into two camps ("win and we're in" or "hand wringing possibilities"). When I see the latter, I see a lot of impossible scenarios. We don't need to be above Clemson, Alabama, LSU, Florida, Stanford, Utah, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, AND Notre Dame. Come on, now.
If Stanford passes us, they do so beating Notre Dame, who will drop below us. Problem solved. And vice versa (Stanford would be undefeated in PAC play, but would have two losses overall, and you cannot convince me a two-loss team is taken over an undefeated P5 team)
If we're undefeated, we beat Ohio State, who drops below us, problem solved.
If Alabama wins out, they stay ahead of us, and no other SEC team has the cache to overtake us. LSU would have lost out in their own division, and Florida would have another loss. No problem here.
Utah wins out, they eliminate Stanford, and their bad loss to USC is their demise. They are like Iowa, not Alabama. They don't get the benefit of the doubt to overcome a loss.
Clemson either wins out to stay ahead of us or loses, which eliminates the ACC. No ACC team with 1+ losses overtakes us because of the relative strength of the B12. Plus we'll have the recency benefit of the win over OSU.
I believe the Big Twelve champ must be undefeated to have a chance. I think OU is the best team right now but their loss to Texas will undo them. If Baylor or OSU is undefeated, then we need to look at the whole picture to keep from getting anxious:
The current projected no upset results (which means you can throw half these teams out the window because the upsets will come)
The candidates:
Undefeated B10 team
Undefeated B12 team
Undefeated ACC
1-loss SEC team
1-loss PAC team or 1-loss Notre Dame (can't both happen)
Don't get blinded by the current rankings (the committee pretty much starts from scratch each week, as they should) or the names of the teams. If this is the scenario, the undefeateds are in, and Stanford/Utah/Notre Dame are up against Alabama. Not Iowa.
So, there you go. That's the long version of, "If Iowa wins out, we're in the playoff."
I would love to paint a scenario where Iowa loses once but still wins the Big Ten. Get as many losses into the top 25 as I can and see where all the records stand at the end, but that would take way more time than I can spend. Maybe later this week.
If Stanford passes us, they do so beating Notre Dame, who will drop below us. Problem solved. And vice versa (Stanford would be undefeated in PAC play, but would have two losses overall, and you cannot convince me a two-loss team is taken over an undefeated P5 team)
If we're undefeated, we beat Ohio State, who drops below us, problem solved.
If Alabama wins out, they stay ahead of us, and no other SEC team has the cache to overtake us. LSU would have lost out in their own division, and Florida would have another loss. No problem here.
Utah wins out, they eliminate Stanford, and their bad loss to USC is their demise. They are like Iowa, not Alabama. They don't get the benefit of the doubt to overcome a loss.
Clemson either wins out to stay ahead of us or loses, which eliminates the ACC. No ACC team with 1+ losses overtakes us because of the relative strength of the B12. Plus we'll have the recency benefit of the win over OSU.
I believe the Big Twelve champ must be undefeated to have a chance. I think OU is the best team right now but their loss to Texas will undo them. If Baylor or OSU is undefeated, then we need to look at the whole picture to keep from getting anxious:
The current projected no upset results (which means you can throw half these teams out the window because the upsets will come)
The candidates:
Undefeated B10 team
Undefeated B12 team
Undefeated ACC
1-loss SEC team
1-loss PAC team or 1-loss Notre Dame (can't both happen)
Don't get blinded by the current rankings (the committee pretty much starts from scratch each week, as they should) or the names of the teams. If this is the scenario, the undefeateds are in, and Stanford/Utah/Notre Dame are up against Alabama. Not Iowa.
So, there you go. That's the long version of, "If Iowa wins out, we're in the playoff."
I would love to paint a scenario where Iowa loses once but still wins the Big Ten. Get as many losses into the top 25 as I can and see where all the records stand at the end, but that would take way more time than I can spend. Maybe later this week.
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