How possible is 12-0 or 11-1?

[GPRHAWK]

cant remember the statistical formula, but if we have a 60% chance of winning each of the remaining games, our odds of winning all six would probably be like 10%

 

[GrayHawk1957]

That game in Bloomington where we blew the lead was absolutely brutal. There were probably 30,000 IU fans and about 10,000 Iowa fans in attendance. It was like practice for the first half. We moved the ball at will and scored two TD's, blanking their offense. The crowd was almost silent. Beautiful day, and all was well. Then, everything went downhill in the second half and the IU fans finally came to life a little, just enough to be annoying. It was a long, frustrating trip back to Iowa.

I remember that one. We really should be talking about the Wildcats though! I've seen many Hawkeye victories against Northwestern, both home and away. I've seen Iowa lost twice to them - the 13-40 beatdown in Iowa City in 1996 and the last-second Wildcat win in Evanston in 1999. I'm thinking with the heart this 2015 team has, Iowa just might prevai

 

[Hawk_4shur]

We can win each game on our schedule, and we can lose each game on our schedule. We have won all 4 games that were in serious jeopardy in the 4th quarter.

So, I'll go with a 5% chance we go 11-1, and a 1% chance we go 12-0.

 

[HerkyFan]

Zero chance .... Too many injuries and short a few more stud players. We have a legit shot at 9-10 wins.

Yep, too many injuries to think it won't catch up with us.

 

[Suterman]

We'll just wait and see. This team has a lot of heart, Our chances of running the table are much better now than at the beginning of the season.

 

[hawkfan37]

Going 3-3 the rest of the way would be disappointing with this schedule.

 

[Ray Kinsella]

cant remember the statistical formula, but if we have a 60% chance of winning each of the remaining games, our odds of winning all six would probably be like 10%

There would be a 4.6% chance of winning all 6.
70% chance each game = 11.8% chance to win all
80% chance each game = 26.2%
90% chance each game = 53.1%

That's something, isn't it? Even if you have a 90% likelihood in each game to win it, it's almost 50/50 that you'll lose at least one of the six.

 

[hexumhawk]

Not a great chance but possible for sure with who we have left. I would say 10%

 

[ft254]

NM

The schedule could hardly be better. Lincoln and Evanston are the real question marks, although nothing can be taken for granted. We still don't know how good Illinois is. You would think their win over Nebraska would have meant something, but, do we?

 

[ROCKY MOUNTAIN HAWK]

What was the likelihood we would be 6-0 at this point? I'd say that probability, whatever it is, is about the same as us going 6-0 the remainder of the season. The last half of the schedule is pretty close to equal or maybe slightly stronger. Definitely possible though, we proven that the 1st half of the season.[/QUO

1st half of season was way tougher than the back half of season.

 

[IAHawk2011]

To answer this question I looked at the Sagarin spreads for each remaining Iowa game, then calculated their percent chance of winning based on those odds.

@ Northwestern (+1.5) - 47.5% of winning
vs. Maryland (-20.5) - 94.4%
@ Indiana (-11) - 85.8%
vs. Purdue (-25) - 96%
vs. Minnesota (-14) - 90.4%
@ Nebraska (-3.5) - 64.9%

Chance of winning every remaining game: 21.7%

If we get past Northwestern, that percentage jumps to 45.6%.

The Sagarin numbers will change as the season goes on, but this is where we're at right now.

 

[GPRHAWK]

There would be a 4.6% chance of winning all 6.
70% chance each game = 11.8% chance to win all
80% chance each game = 26.2%
90% chance each game = 53.1%

That's something, isn't it? Even if you have a 90% likelihood in each game to win it, it's almost 50/50 that you'll lose at least one of the six.

Yes. It's .6x.6x.6x.6x.6x.6. If each game is 70% chance of winning still just 12% chance of winning them all

 

[GPRHAWK]

To answer this question I looked at the Sagarin spreads for each remaining Iowa game, then calculated their percent chance of winning based on those odds.

@ Northwestern (+1.5) - 47.5% of winning
vs. Maryland (-20.5) - 94.4%
@ Indiana (-11) - 85.8%
vs. Purdue (-25) - 96%
vs. Minnesota (-14) - 90.4%
@ Nebraska (-3.5) - 64.9%

Chance of winning every remaining game: 21.7%

If we get past Northwestern, that percentage jumps to 45.6%.

The Sagarin numbers will change as the season goes on, but this is where we're at right now.

Good work!