ADVERTISEMENT

I had coffee with 2 friends yesterday, both liberals & both think Trump is going to win in November

The election outcome will depend on the number of potential voters the respective sides can get to vote in Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Other than those seven, I would say 5 GA and AZ go to Trump IMO, it is unlikely any state bucks recent trends in Presidential elections.
 
I was surprised. My argument was that Trump's ceiling is 40% of the vote and independents are not going to want 4 more years of chaos that they saw between 2017-2021. They both, nevertheless, think Trump will win in the choice between 2 bad candidates.
trump got more votes in 2020 than any other incumbent in history including obama
 
The election outcome will depend on the number of potential voters the respective sides can get to vote in Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Other than those seven, I would say 5 GA and AZ go to Trump IMO, it is unlikely any state bucks recent trends in Presidential elections.
so far trump is ahead or tied in almost all those states except maybe wisconsin. if you believe polls. I think they are a joke , but they are out there. there are serious concerns amongst dems and media that he may take new york state somehow. if he does that it's pretty much over. he is kicking butt with minorities as well.
 
It's quite possible Trump wins, Dems are literally running the only candidate he could beat. If Biden had agreed to be a one term president & then campaigned for whomever the Dems nominated, I think public perception/popularity would be much higher for him.
 
What state do you feel this "butt kicking" will matter when considering the 7 swing states?
with blacks maybe georgia and pennsylvania but with hispanics definitly AZ and Nev. and they say New Mexico may come into play, then of course blacks would help with NYC but I don't hold my breath on that one
 
It's quite possible Trump wins, Dems are literally running the only candidate he could beat. If Biden had agreed to be a one term president & then campaigned for whomever the Dems nominated, I think public perception/popularity would be much higher for him.
I am fairly certain that michelle obama would be a problem or maybe gavin newsome but I don't know of any other dems right now that are worth a crap when it comes to campaigning for prez
 
If Trump could stay on message. He’d win walking away. Would have won in 2020 if he had stayed on message as well. Instead of well being nuts. Will be interesting with the third party candidates such as RFK Jr, Stein, and Cornell. Seen them polling at a combined 18 percent. Depending on which states they are strong in that can really change the dynamics. If that holds or grows it could be a Perot, Clinton, Bush/Dole type of election.
Neither major party candidate is offering anything different. So I think the third party surge will hold. Honestly have no clue right now who wins.
 
If Trump could stay on message. He’d win walking away. Would have won in 2020 if he had stayed on message as well. Instead of well being nuts. Will be interesting with the third party candidates such as RFK Jr, Stein, and Cornell. Seen them polling at a combined 18 percent. Depending on which states they are strong in that can really change the dynamics. If that holds or grows it could be a Perot, Clinton, Bush/Dole type of election.
Neither major party candidate is offering anything different. So I think the third party surge will hold. Honestly have no clue right now who wins.
I did not even know the other two were running besides RFK. I doubt america knows it... and 18% is like 100 times too high. more like .008 %
 
I did not even know the other two were running besides RFK. I doubt america knows it... and 18% is like 100 times too high. more like .008 %
The other two have nutty bases. They vote. Always get their 1 or 2 percent. RFK Jr is around 14 percent depending on your poll. That isn’t crazy numbers we’ve seen it in past elections. For an anybody but an R or D voting block. Perot got 19 % in 92. 9% in 96. Anderson got around 8 % in 1980.
 
dont you put that evil on me GIF
 
It's quite possible Trump wins, Dems are literally running the only candidate he could beat. If Biden had agreed to be a one term president & then campaigned for whomever the Dems nominated, I think public perception/popularity would be much higher for him.

Couldn't one argue that Republicans are running the only candidate Biden could beat?
 
Couldn't one argue that Republicans are running the only candidate Biden could beat?

One could argue that's it's mind boggling that the Conservatives are running such a shit stain of a human being. The party use to pride themselves on values (values I didn't always see eye to eye with) but now they've gone off the deep end with a person who offer little value or aligns with their values.
 
I was surprised. My argument was that Trump's ceiling is 40% of the vote and independents are not going to want 4 more years of chaos that they saw between 2017-2021. They both, nevertheless, think Trump will win in the choice between 2 bad candidates.
I am definitely preparing myself. Joe Biden deserves a world of shit if it happens.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Franisdaman
I am definitely preparing myself. Joe Biden deserves a world of shit if it happens.
it wouldn't be his fault at all. it's basically his wife and family who are doing elder-abuse by not hiding him a nursing home. and obama who is running the show and letting him take the fall for this crap. and the media who keeps on pushing and pushing a false narrative. he has a bunch of folks running things and he is a brain dead zombie.
 
Trump has a woman voter problem.

Women are the largest single voting bloc in GEs and have been so since 1964.

With this voting bloc, Biden has opened up a double digit advantage, possibly as high as 15 percentage points according to some national polls. This gap is higher than Trump’s advantage with men voters.

Women are substantially outpacing men in new voter registration since the last election, especially since Roe v. Wade was overturned. These voters are motivated. Florida is now a battleground state.

Said it before - women voters are going to teach Trump/the GOP a lesson in 2024.
 
If Trump could stay on message. He’d win walking away. Would have won in 2020 if he had stayed on message as well. Instead of well being nuts. Will be interesting with the third party candidates such as RFK Jr, Stein, and Cornell. Seen them polling at a combined 18 percent. Depending on which states they are strong in that can really change the dynamics. If that holds or grows it could be a Perot, Clinton, Bush/Dole type of election.
Neither major party candidate is offering anything different. So I think the third party surge will hold. Honestly have no clue right now who wins.

I think that people (especially independents) thinking Trump is nuts is going to help push Biden to victory.

But like you said, there are so many factors at play. My one friend commented that he looked forward to the debates, and I brought up that Biden's camp wants the mics cut off when it is not that person's turn to talk.

The economy, the border (85% of those who enter illegally are getting released into the country) and the Israel/Hamas war are huge issues, too. Muslim Americans are mobilizing in 9 swing states and are promising to abandon Biden and make sure he loses.
 
How are Latinos going to vote for Trump when he wants to round them up & deport them?
I live in Texas. there is a big push for these republican candidates on the border for congress, state and local elections. the reason for that is, like somebody above me posted: most Hispanics are basically hard working, family people. Catholics. they don't like the leftist drug cartels entering texas. taking over our towns, killing our kids with fentanyl, human trafficking. bottom line is trump wants to round up criminals and deport them or not let them in: biden wants them in. biden thinks they will vote dem. or Obama does.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SansAgain
I think that people (especially independents) thinking Trump is nuts is going to help push Biden to victory.

But like you said, there are so many factors at play. My one friend commented that he looked forward to the debates, and I brought up that Biden's camp wants the mics cut off when it is not that person's turn to talk.

The economy, the border (85% of those who enter illegally are getting released into the country) and the Israel/Hamas war are huge issues, too. Muslim Americans are mobilizing in 9 swing states and are promising to abandon Biden and make sure he loses.
never in history have independents ever done crap. in 2020 trump won and biden and obama cheated. in 2016 trump won with repubbers. dems vote for obama. we have a two party system. the middle of the road is littered with roadkill that has two yellow stripes painted down their backs. your friends understand this: there is an R team and D team. football teams. one has a red helmet. one has a blue helmet. there is no "I " in team, no "I" independent team. there is an "I" in iowa and caitlin. but no "O" in iowa offense.
 
Trump has a woman voter problem.

Women are the largest single voting bloc in GEs and have been so since 1964.

With this voting bloc, Biden has opened up a double digit advantage, possibly as high as 15 percentage points according to some national polls. This gap is higher than Trump’s advantage with men voters.

Women are substantially outpacing men in new voter registration since the last election, especially since Roe v. Wade was overturned. These voters are motivated. Florida is now a battleground state.

Said it before - women voters are going to teach Trump/the GOP a lesson in 2024.
this may be true but a lot of it is false narratives about women's rights. which are made up and false. fake rights. a lot of women see this and can tell the difference between false and made up garbage and things which actually matter.
 
I think that people (especially independents) thinking Trump is nuts is going to help push Biden to victory.

But like you said, there are so many factors at play. My one friend commented that he looked forward to the debates, and I brought up that Biden's camp wants the mics cut off when it is not that person's turn to talk.

The economy, the border (85% of those who enter illegally are getting released into the country) and the Israel/Hamas war are huge issues, too. Muslim Americans are mobilizing in 9 swing states and are promising to abandon Biden and make sure he loses.
Trumps biggest issue is always self inflicted. The issues often don’t matter. The guy is an outlier. Throw out the rule book. Will those Muslims in 9 states make up for the votes that Trump has lost from Libertarians leaning conservatives , women , military, and others that plain won’t vote for him no matter what
 
What if I told you that there were more voters in 2020 than any other election in history due to population growth?
I would agree. especially with the amount of people I see in TX coming across the border. yes it slowed under trump but they still came.
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT