I know the season is early and what happens in March is what matters - but come on - How good does it feel to see Iowa at the top again...
http://intermatwrestle.com/rankings/college/Team
http://intermatwrestle.com/rankings/college/Team
Iowa #1 again....
- Thread starter BIG10MANIAC
- Start date
It feels good alright. It's like getting in line for ice cream at CHA. You've been thinking about it all week. It's worth the wait in line. March is 4 mo away and I'm pretty sure that's how long I waited in line last week. 
Now the target is on our backs, and the real fu* begins.
PSU falls to 5th in dual rankings..... ouch.
I think it is quite a bit more than that. Figuring out 141 also requires figuring out 133. Also, 184. I know many love the feel of Brands, but it is still more Mike Kelly at this point than Lincoln McIlravy. Brands has shown tons of heart, but he beat a guy that was 10-24 coming into the season and then had a rather unique set of events get him an OT win over a 1x NQ in 3 chances.
Hopefully Murin can get healthy enough to man 141 and Brands lights a fire under Wilcke, because the following lineup IS their best chance to maximize points:
125-Lee
133-DeSanto
141-Murin
149-Lugo
157-Young
165-Bull
174-Kemerer
184-Wilcke
197-Warner
285-Cass
Your comments on Brands fall apart a little bit when you fail to mention he's a 165 pounder going at 184.
These rankings have Nelson Brands ranked 10th btw. Going through them they look impressive however, I’m a bit more realistic.
They have:
Lee-1st
DeSanto-2nd
Murin-9th
Lugo-3rd
Young-4th
Marinelli-2nd
Kemmerer-3rd
Brands-10th
Warner-3rd
Cass-12th
Obviously if Iowa finished with 7AAs (all top 4), 3 finalists and 3 R12 guys to boot, they obliterate the field. PSU is not as bad as they’ve looked. They are going to get some guys back and have big point scorers at 141,165,174, 184 (if healthy) and Hwt. They probably end up with 6 solid AAs with some finalists.
They have:
Lee-1st
DeSanto-2nd
Murin-9th
Lugo-3rd
Young-4th
Marinelli-2nd
Kemmerer-3rd
Brands-10th
Warner-3rd
Cass-12th
Obviously if Iowa finished with 7AAs (all top 4), 3 finalists and 3 R12 guys to boot, they obliterate the field. PSU is not as bad as they’ve looked. They are going to get some guys back and have big point scorers at 141,165,174, 184 (if healthy) and Hwt. They probably end up with 6 solid AAs with some finalists.
Not necessarily since that would mean he is a 165lber that can't beat the current 165 or 174 and HAS TO wrestle 184...........and I was ONLY looking at what was best for 184, assuming everyone realized he was an undersized 184.
They just survived against UNI 24-19. They have quite a few Top Ten guys.
Honestly, it's Iowa and Penn State, and everyone else this year.
In all fairness, I don't think anyone really knows yet what our best lineup is to maximize points in March. I do feel that Nelson should try to pack on some muscle in the next 3 months as 184 in all reality is his only chance to get in the lineup this year. That won't happen by Midlands, but can by March. He will still be undersized, but why not try to make the lineup as compared to trying to stay at his ideal weight as a backup!? I think him and $$$ will be decided at Midlands and not until. As far as 133/141 that really depends on Murin's injury. Is he going to be good to go by March, or be at 50-75% the rest of the year? The answer to this really changes everything. Midlands will be great to see where GT and Murin are at and answer some of the 133/141 questions. All I know for sure is that Tom doesn't give a s$%t what I think our best options are and will have the best lineup we have available by March! Midlands are going to be great this year and answer a lot of questions for the Hawks.
Speaking of PSU, the amount of posts over here has decreased rapidly over the past few days. Been a breath of fresh air. I didn't even see any hawk fans giving them a hard time on BWI either. They do however take shots at Iowa in almost every thread over there, no matter what the topic is, so there's that.
My statement was based on Murin being as healthy as possible. Barring some freakish improvement over a few months, the guys I listed are the most proven and have shown they ALL can AA, with many quite high.
I get that Midlands will most likely be the deciding point and believe it should be. However, Brands trying to bulk up in season is NOT a good idea. This can have a very similar effect to cutting weight. The body doesn't adjust quickly to rapid muscle/weight gain. His best chance is to focus solely on wrestling and keep that Brands motor at its best.
I'll beg to differ on some of those numbers, and whether they obliterate the field. On paper right now, PSU likely also has a shot at 7 AAs (133, 141, 157-184, 285), 6 in top 4 (133, 141, 165-184, 285), and 3-5 finalists (141, 165-184, 285). Throw 197 in as a possible AA (either Conel turns it around, or Beard steps in).
As pointed out in another thread, health at 157, 184, and 197 are very influential uncertainties for PSU at this time. If those ultimately click come March, PSU is going to look a lot more formidable than just 6 AAs and some finalists.
I think it's still too early to call Iowa-PSU as anything but a toss-up.
Using the current Flo Rankings:
NCAA Placement+advancement points based solely on no upsets for each team without bonus factored in
-----Iowa--------PSU
125-20-----------0
133-16-----------13.5
141-5.5----------13.5
149-13.5---------0 Verkleeren ranked 25th puts him exactly 1 spot out of securing a win and .5 points
157-13.5---------9
165-16-----------20
174-13.5--------20
184-9------------5.5
197-12.5--------.5
285-2------------20
121.5------------102
Based SOLEY on Flo's rankings it WOULD BE an obliteration, which is all he really said. I agree that I don't see any way Iowa beats them by that much, but this is why I keep saying they ARE a solid favorite at this point of the season. On top of this, I would be really surprised if PSU outscores Iowa in bonus points this season. Iowa should very likely have so many top seeds across the board that the likelihood for early bonus points or even bonus on the backside goes up considerably. On top of that, PSU simply DOES NOT have the proven bonus point scorers they have had in a long time.
Yeah, but those are Flo rankings.
Intermat -- which were the rankings noted by the OP and by @so cal hawkfan in his post, have Iowa by 6.0 pts. If you want to challenge my take, it might be better to look at a group of rankings and come up with an average among them . . . and then account for the 2nd paragraph of my post. Just sayin'.
Hey slush, what’s your take on Shak? I was curious about his career and looked at it and nothing really stuck out to me as wow - sure fire AA or finalist, yet for the last two years he has been in that convo. I know he has AA’d and has tons of pinning potential but as a fan following the team, what makes you think he can be a finalist? Shake the injury rust off and perform much higher than he ever has?
He beat:
Venz
Colbray pin
Holschlag pin
Miklus
Wilke
Losses:
Geno
Wilson
McFadden
Massa
Preisch
Rodriguez
Shields
Darmastadt
Conel
Others
I haven’t watched him much at all, that’s why I’m asking.
He beat:
Venz
Colbray pin
Holschlag pin
Miklus
Wilke
Losses:
Geno
Wilson
McFadden
Massa
Preisch
Rodriguez
Shields
Darmastadt
Conel
Others
I haven’t watched him much at all, that’s why I’m asking.
I get what you were saying. Come March, I expect PSU to be right there with them if not even be favored. However, RIGHT NOW, I don't see how Iowa is not at least moderately ahead.
Right now, in either a dual or tournament format Iowa puts too much distance ahead of PSU at 125, 149, 157, 184 and 197. That doesn't even account for 133(where I would favor DeSanto considerably), 165(where Marinelli is 2-0 against Joseph) and 174(where Kemerer could pull off the moderate upset). 141 and 285 are the ONLY clear favorites for PSU at the current time.
This is a much bigger deal to me ONLY because I would never have expect PSU to be anything more than a tossup if you looked at the numbers.
I get what you were saying. Come March, I expect PSU to be right there with them if not even be favored. However, RIGHT NOW, I don't see how Iowa is not at least moderately ahead.
Right now, in either a dual or tournament format Iowa puts too much distance ahead of PSU at 125, 149, 157, 184 and 197. That doesn't even account for 133(where I would favor DeSanto considerably), 165(where Marinelli is 2-0 against Joseph) and 174(where Kemerer could pull off the moderate upset). 141 and 285 are the ONLY clear favorites for PSU at the current time.
This is a much bigger deal to me ONLY because I would never have expect PSU to be anything more than a tossup if you looked at the numbers.
I hate to say this, as I really like him, but I personally would not put him in as a likely finalist at this time if I am going to be objective. He didn't wrestle enough last year and has yet to go this year. I cited him in the numbers I posted above because that's what Intermat had, and we were discussing those rankings.
That all said, Rasheed is super dangerous when he is healthy, which means he can beat anyone. He placed 5th as an underweight 197 in 2018, and I think he has been ranked so highly since because (a) he dropped to a better weight for him, (b) his cradle is even more deadly when applied to a smaller mass, and (c) guys lost around him while he was out of action, and so the rankers moved him up by attrition.
I love what Rasheed can do on the mat. I love his underdog story as an unheralded recruit (except by those who knew him personally). However, he is vulnerable to making poor decisions in scrambles and in mat wrestling. His ceiling is champ without a doubt, but that concern I just noted is why I hesitate to count him as a likely finalist. To win 4 in a row at Natty's, you have to be on your game and thinking clearly for every match, and I just haven't seen that level of consistency (in a tournament) from him yet. He had Macchiavello beat in the 2018 quarters, but made a poor decision. Of course, Macch ended up being champ -- I think that has some added influence to how people view Rasheed's potential.
But damn, he needs to stop putting his knee into precarious positions on takedown and reversal defense, or else he'll never be healthy at season's end.
Well, yeah, right now PSU isn't wrestling its starters at 157 and 184, and 197 would seem to be an experiment. But as I noted in our other convo, right now is not Jan 31st or March. I'm expecting the situation to be pretty different by then, when things start to matter.
As I understand it, Penn State is wrestling back ups at 157 and 184, and 197, so there's that.
That FF equaled at most 3 more points and in all likelihood was 1 to none with Zahid against a backup.
We have a shot. A champions mentality come March in Minny will be difficult to overcome, however. You can run the numbers any way you want, but there is no arithmetic that accounts for the spirit of a multi-time defending national championship team. If we can stare that in the face and come out with our studs rolling it can be done and I’ll be the first one singing in the streets of downtown Minneapolis. Until then, heavy is the crown.
Unless you think Brands is going to magically become a full-sized 184 this year, this comment makes no sense. He doesn't get extra points at the tournament because he's small. Him placing 8th might be more impressive than Wilcke placing 7th, but Wilcke still scores more points, and that's all that matters.
As I understand it, Penn State is wrestling back ups at 157 and 184, and 197, so there's that.
Yes...good point. Rasheed was unheralded. He was ranked at a lowly #43 on FLO's big board.
For reference, Iowa's Murin was ranked #44. Lugo #64. And those 2 Iowa guys battling for 184? #86 Wilcke and #93 Brands.
But still, we all truly love those PSU underdog stories.
Quick look at the rankings:
It seems like a lot is b/c Connel sunk from #4 to #20. But also b/c C-Bass is at 133 and that bumps RBY and Pletcher is at 141 and bumps Lee. Both of those senarios give Iowa about 2-5 points.
Iowa's change: Brands in at #10 Wicke was #9
Murin still there and goes from 8 to 9
Young drops to 4.
It seems like a lot is b/c Connel sunk from #4 to #20. But also b/c C-Bass is at 133 and that bumps RBY and Pletcher is at 141 and bumps Lee. Both of those senarios give Iowa about 2-5 points.
Iowa's change: Brands in at #10 Wicke was #9
Murin still there and goes from 8 to 9
Young drops to 4.
180.7 for Iowa St and 176.5 for UTC
Nice, I swear I kept reading much lower. That definitely gives me more...I don’t know. I don’t want to trash an upperclassman and I wouldn’t. I just thought he was giving up more weight, but I couldn’t see it. I’m good with the best wrestler wrestling, it’s a tough sport that way.
A few more pounds and a small cut by March, tough call. I’m not giving up on $$$, but he better bring energy and offense. It’s pretty cool too have a spark plug at that weight that wrestles like a lightweight.
A few more pounds and a small cut by March, tough call. I’m not giving up on $$$, but he better bring energy and offense. It’s pretty cool too have a spark plug at that weight that wrestles like a lightweight.
May I offer you a tissue?
He was an underdog to be a multi-year starter in the exclusively top-10 p4b, highly-heralded, star-studded, no-coach-needed, so-unfair PSU lineup. Of all people, I would have figured you'd understand just how much of a success story that represents. #43? That has PSU room guy written all over it.
Yes very good. Not as good as #1 Iowa, as a fan of lowly #4 PSU. I’d have it ranked 1. Iowa 2. Nebraska 3. Arizona State 4. Wisconsin 5. PSU.
I’m just hoping we can get a trophy this year. Gonna be a real battle for 4th.
Iowa clear #1. Rankers can’t be wrong
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Conel isn't a back up...when he was winning he was #3 ranked and PSU faithful saying he could be National champ...now hes lost a couple and hes considered a backup ...bs!
WITH that logic we are wrestling two backups also at 141 OUR 3rd stringer and 184 with Brands...difference is our depth seams better and are right there while theres are faltering.
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